O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 1 Citizen Information Needs In...

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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Citizen Information Needs In Chemical Incidents

John H. Sorensen

Distinguished R&D Staff

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Warning Response Research

Started in the 1950’s Driven by the shadow of nuclear war If we sound the sirens, what will people do? Series of studies - tornado, hurricane, flood,

explosion, air raid sirens, alien invasions Research expanded in 70’s and 80’s - volcano,

chemical, nuclear, tsunami, earthquake Research funding dies off in the mid-90s

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Warning/Risk Communication

Warning America: A State and Local Planning Guide

Are You Ready - CERT Preparedness Guide

Assessment of Research on Human Response to Warnings

Handbook on Disaster Research

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Five Key Elements of a WS

Preparedness and education

Risk identification and classification

Alert Notification Feedback,

monitoring, and evaluation

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Old Persuasive Communication Model

Source

Message

Channel

ReceiverConfirmRespond

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New Communication Model

Communicator

FriendCoworker

Partner

CNN

TV

Internet

Cell Phone

Pager

Hot Line

Talk Radio

MayorFederal Government

Reverse911

NWR

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Differences

One way flow Single official

source Limited channels Attentive audience Control

information

Conversations Multiple sources Expanding

channels Occupied audience Manage

information

Old New

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Increasingly Difficult To Get People’s Attention

Increasing social isolation Increasing cultural and ethnic

diversity Aging population Inundation of information

Telemarketers Infomercials

Denial of risk Night-time issues

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Factors Working For and Against

For Visual and other

cues Family and network Female Younger Majority High SES Non-fatalistic

Against No cues Living alone and

isolated Male Elderly Minority Low SES Fatalistic

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What Can You Do to Increase Response?

Manipulate content of warning messages Manipulate the style of warning messages Improve the message format Manipulate the warning source Use multiple channels for dissemination Issue frequent detailed messages Develop an intensive and ongoing public

education program

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Message Contents

A concise description of the hazard and impacts

The current and predicted location of the impacts (and location of no impacts)

What specific actions to take When to take those actions Sources of information

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Message Style

Clear: Worded in a manner that people understand

Specific: Contains precise information

Accurate: Even minor errors may cause problems

Certain: Is authoritative and confident

Consistent: Explains basis for change in information

Farragut, TN Train Derailment

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Use of Graphics

© 1999 Baron Services, Inc.

Common Practice Uncommon Practice

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Warning Myths

People panic when warned about an impending hazard

People will be confused if you give them too much information (KISS)

Warnings should be given by a single spokesperson

Cry wolf syndrome People remember different threat indicators People will automatically follow instructions in

a warning

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Panic

People panic when warned about a hazard “We didn’t issue a warning because we

did not want to scare the public and cause them to panic”

Panic has never occurred in response to a natural or technological disaster warning

Panic does occur in some emergencies - clear sign of threat, a narrow window of escape, not everyone will escape

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Providing Information

People will be confused if you give them too much information (KISS) Not selling them toothpaste People are information starved People want detailed information People want to hear it often People turn to other sources if they perceive

they are not getting enough information CNN viewers increase by 5-10x during a

disaster

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Single Spokesperson

Warnings should be given by a single spokesperson There is no one single public There is not one person who is credible to all

publics Need mix: officials, ARC, scientists, doctors Need multiple means of dissemination

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False Alarms

Cry wolf It’s a fable and does not occur except in the

basement of psychology buildings People will respond to warnings even if they

have had false alarms Non-response is largely shaped by perceived

risk Exception: people will ignore sirens if they go

off frequently and for no reason

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Warning Indicators

People remember different threat indicators People rarely remember what different siren

signals such as wails, whoops, alternating tones, chiming tones or steady tones mean

People do not distinguish between advisories, watches, and warnings

Exception: when it becomes part of a culture (e.g. hurricane, workplace

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People will automatically follow instructions in a warning

If at odds with other information

If not viewed as protective

If it does not make sense

If it is too expensive

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WTC Evacuation

WTC 1 (first hit) WTC 2 (second hit) % Evacuated Deaths % Evacuated Deaths Above Impact 0 1,355 75 619 Below Impact 98.5 107 99.99 11

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Issues for Chemical Event Warnings

Rapid Onset Need Rapid

Warning High Uncertainty Shelter or

Evacuate Night-time Events

Chlorine Storage Facility, Atlanta, GA

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West Helena Accident

Description of Survey Data Regarding The Chemical Repackaging Plant Accident, West Helena, Arkansas, Vogt, B. and J. Sorensen, Oak RidgeNational Laboratory, ORNL/TM-13722, 1999.

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West Helena, AR Incident

Smoking package of Azinphos-methyl Firefighters respond at 1:10 p.m. 1:30 p.m. explosion occurs - killing 3 firefighters,

injuring 17 other Community warning issued Residents in 2 mi. zone told to evacuate Residents between 2-3 mi. told to shelter Residents allowed to return 10:00 p.m.

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Source of First Warning

36% by officials (police, fire, emergency services, sheriff)

25.6% by neighbor, friend, co-worker 20.8% by family member or relative 4.9% by media (television or radio) 9.6% (of 131 responses) received more

than one warning

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Timing of Warning Receipt

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Time (min)

Perc

en

t W

arn

ed

15 min.100%

Helena

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Protective Action Compliance in West Helena Event

Evacuated Sheltered Neitherevac. orsheltered

Totalnumber

responsesEvacuation

area90%(87)

5%(5)

5%(5) 97

Shelteredarea

68%(18)

27%(7)

4%(1) 26

Percent oftotal

responses

85%(103)

10%(12)

5%(6) 123

Source: Vogt and Sorensen, 1999

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3 0 02 4 01 8 01 2 06 0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Clear Time

Evacuation Time

Warning Time

HUMAN BEHAVIOR IN THE NANTICOTE EVACUATION

TIME

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Pe

rce

nt

1 am 2 am 3 am 4 am 5 am

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.

2 4 01 8 01 2 06 0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4Siren (%)Route (%)Informal (%)Media (%)

Diffussion of Warning at Nanticoke

Time

P o r t i o n W a r n e d

1 am 2 am 3 am 4 am

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3025201510500.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

SIRENS

TONE ALERT

TELEPHONE

MEDIA

SIRENS/TONE ALERTS

SIRENS/TELEPHONES

Time (min)

Po

rtio

n r

ec

eiv

ing

wa

rnin

gs

Diffusion Of Warnings

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Estimated Night-Time Warning Rates (15 min)

System Direct Notification (%)

With Informal (%)

Siren 10 dBC over ambient

35 46

Siren 20 over ambient

45 57

Tone Alert Radio (weather radio)

70 80

Sirens (10dbC) and Tone Alert

80 88

Enhanced Tone Alert Radio

90 95

Sirens (10dbC) and Enhanced Tone Alert Radio

94 97

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No Research On Effectiveness of New Technologies InEmergencies

Reverse 911 Tone Alert Radio Cell Phones IP Devices - email,

PDA, etc Devices for Disability

Impaired

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Observations

US lacks a national warning strategy Community warning systems are deficient

fragmented, not interoperable, lack management

Warning processes have fundamentally changed in the US technology, social process, recent events

New warning response research is necessary Technology is important but is only part of the

solution

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Contact Information

John Sorensen

[email protected]

865-576-2716

http://emc.ornl.gov

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