THE FUTURE OF NEW ZEALAND'S

TRANSPORT SYSTEM:

FINDINGS FROM NZ DELPHI SURVEY

Debbie Hopkins, Alaric McCarthy, Janet Stephenson Energy Cultures II Project

Centre for Sustainability (CSAFE) Debbie.hopkins@otago.ac.nz

• Why is it important to think about New Zealand’s future transport system?

• The Delphi Technique • The Delphi Panel • Results

– Trends – Innovations – Step changes – Time frames – Characteristics of a sustainable transport

system • Concluding remarks

STRUCTURE

Reliance on imported fuel:

• Imported crude oil accounts for 99.85% of New Zealand’s transport fuel requirements (MBIE, 2012)

Used primarily by light passenger vehicles:

• 94% of transport petrol is used for light passenger vehicles, 6% commercial and other uses.

High car ownership rate:

• Second highest private car ownership rate in the OECD; 604 cars per thousand people in 2013

Relatively old vehicle fleet:

• Relatively old vehicle fleet – average of 13.2 years in 2012, compared to 11.4 years in the USA and 10.0 years for Australia

Transport emissions:

• New Zealand’s transport sector emissions per capita are approximately 3 t CO2-e and put New Zealand in the middle of the Annex 1 countries; higher than the EU (2t CO2-e/person) and below Australia (nearly 4t CO2-e/person)

CONTEXT

Source: MBIE, 2014

THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE…

… a structured process enabling the collection and synthesis of knowledge from a group of experts

… generates levels of agreement through iterative investigations of opinions

Benefits:

Reduces power dynamics

Overcomes geographical constraints of bringing together geographically scattered experts

Valuable for issues with high uncertainty or disagreement

Round One (n=75)

•Qualitative survey •Inviting Panel to list influential trends, innovations & step changes (free text)

Round Two (n=67)

•Quantifying the likelihood of the trends, innovations & step changes occurring, and their potential to transform the transport system •Time frames in which the stated changes would be likely to occur

Round Three (n=55)

•Quantifying levels of agreement/ disagreement arising from Rounds 1 & 2.

•Identifying areas of high priority for interventions

•Levels of agreement with International Delphi panel on features of a sustainable transport system for NZ

Round Four (n=44)

•Inviting Panel to describe the types of interventions required to support priorities (free text)

NZ DELPHI 2014

86 PANELLISTS ACROSS 4 ROUNDS

DELPHI PARTICIPANT CHARACTERISTICS

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Consultant

Other

Academia

Independent researcher

Industry

Non-governmental organisation

Government (central + local)

Number of expert participants

Fields of expertise: Areas of highest reported expertise: ‘active transport’, ‘policy and planning’, ‘personal transport’ and ‘transport-related infrastructure’.

Locally specified areas of expertise: Auckland = 19 Wellington = 14 Dunedin = 6 Bay of Plenty/ Waikato = 3

DEFINITIONS

TRENDS: ‘things that are already changing’ INNOVATIONS: ‘novel technological, behavioural and policy developments’ STEP CHANGES: ‘possible rapid or sudden shifts, shocks, or changes in context’ BUSINESS-AS-USUAL (BAU): ‘the continuation of transport systems and practices that rely on finite resources and support automobile dependence’.

TRENDS

TRENDS (I)

1 2 3 4 5

Reducing cost of air transport relative to road…

Urban form that supports active transport and…

Rising concern about health implications of…

Uptake of shared personal transport (e.g. car…

Increasing political concern about climate change

Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs)

Increasing investment in active transport…

Consolidation of ports and freight hubs

Uptake of active transport (walking, cycling)

Uptake of public transport

Increasing investment in public transport…

Increasing public concern about climate change

Decreasing drivers licensing amongst youth

Increasing truck size and carrying capacity

Road congestion

Decreasing car ownership amongst youth

Use of travel substitution technologies (Internet,…

Increasing percent of population in urban areas

Aging population

Rising fuel prices

Lkelihood of TREND becoming widespread in 10 years (1= low, 5 = high)

Top 5 trends most likely to become widespread in the next 10 years: 1. Rising fuel prices 2. Aging population 3. Increasing urbanisation 4. Use of travel substitution 5. Decreasing car

ownership for youth

TRENDS (II)

1 2 3 4 5

Reducing cost of air transport relative to road transport

Increasing truck size and carrying capacity

Rising concern about health implications of transport…

Consolidation of ports and freight hubs

Road congestion

Decreasing drivers licensing amongst youth

Aging population

Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs)

Uptake of shared personal transport (e.g. car sharing,…

Use of travel substitution technologies (Internet,…

Decreasing car ownership amongst youth

Uptake of active transport (walking, cycling)

Increasing percent of population in urban areas

Increasing public concern about climate change

Uptake of public transport

Increasing investment in active transport infrastructure

Increasing political concern about climate change

Increasing investment in public transport infrastructure

Urban form that supports active transport and public…

Rising fuel prices

Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU within 10 years

(1 = low, 5 = high)

Top 5 trends most likely to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term: 1. Rising fuel prices 2. Urban form supporting AT 3. Increasing investment in PT

infrastructure 4. Increasing political concern

about climate change 5. Increasing investment in

active transport infrastructure

TRENDS (III)

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5

Like

liho

od

of

TREN

D b

eco

min

g w

ides

pre

ad in

10

yea

rs

Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term

A F

D

C

B

I H

E G

J

K

L

P

T

S

R

N

M O

Q

A - Rising fuel prices B - Increasing percent of population in urban areas C - Increasing public concern about climate change D - Increasing investment in PT infrastructure E - Use of travel substitution technologies F - Aging population G - Decreasing car ownership among youth

H - Uptake of PT I - Increasing investment in AT infrastructure J - Uptake of AT K - Decreasing drivers licensing among youth

M - Increasing political concern about climate change N - Urban form that supports AT and PT O - Uptake of shared personal transport

P - Road congestion Q - Consolidation of ports and freight hubs R - Increasing truck size and carrying capacity

S - Rising concern about health implications of transport T - Reducing cost of air transport relative to road

LOW likelihood HIGH potential

LOW likelihood LOW potential

HIGH likelihood HIGH potential

HIGH likelihood LOW potential

TRENDS (IV)

TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5

Like

liho

od

of

TREN

D b

eco

min

g w

ides

pre

ad in

10

yea

rs

Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term

A F

D

C

B

I H

E G

J

K

L

P

T

S

R

N

M O

Q

A - Rising fuel prices B - Increasing percent of population in urban areas C - Increasing public concern about climate change D - Increasing investment in PT infrastructure E - Use of travel substitution technologies F - Aging population G - Decreasing car ownership among youth

H - Uptake of PT I - Increasing investment in AT infrastructure J - Uptake of AT K - Decreasing drivers licensing among youth

M - Increasing political concern about climate change N - Urban form that supports AT and PT O - Uptake of shared personal transport

P - Road congestion Q - Consolidation of ports and freight hubs R - Increasing truck size and carrying capacity

S - Rising concern about health implications of transport T - Reducing cost of air transport relative to road

LOW likelihood HIGH potential

LOW likelihood LOW potential

HIGH likelihood HIGH potential

HIGH likelihood LOW potential

INNOVATIONS

INNOVATIONS (I)

1 2 3 4 5

Large scale biofuel production

Autonomously guided vehicles

Wireless induction charging for electricvehicles

Demand management through road pricing

Electric vehicle charging infrastructure

Measures that reduce parking availability incity centres

Multi-modal, integrated public transport

Intelligent transport systems (Vehicle toinfrastructure communication, collision…

Improvements in battery technologies forelectric vehicles

Bicycle infrastructure (e.g. protected bikelanes, bike sharing schemes, electric…

Real-time driver feedback software(analysing driver behaviour and fuel…

Small electrified vehicles (e.g. bikes,scooters, small cars)

High quality video conferencing

Ultra fast broadband

Likelihood of INNOVATION becoming widespread in 10 years

(1 = Low, 5 = High)

Top 5 innovations most likely to become widespread in the next 10 years: 1. Ultra fast broadband

internet 2. High quality video

conferencing 3. Small electrified vehicles 4. Real-time driver

feedback software 5. Bicycle infrastructure

INNOVATIONS (II)

1 2 3 4 5

Real-time driver feedback software(analysing driver behaviour and fuel…

Large scale biofuel production

High quality video conferencing

Wireless induction charging for electricvehicles

Ultra fast broadband

Autonomously guided vehicles

Electric vehicle charging infrastructure

Intelligent transport systems (Vehicle toinfrastructure communication,…

Small electrified vehicles (e.g. bikes,scooters, small cars)

Improvements in battery technologiesfor electric vehicles

Measures that reduce parkingavailability in city centres

Bicycle infrastructure (e.g. protectedbike lanes, bike sharing schemes,…

Multi-modal, integrated publictransport

Demand management through roadpricing

Potential for INNOVATION to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term

(1 = Low, 5 = High)

Top 5 innovations most likely to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term: 1. Demand management

through road pricing 2. Multi-modal, integrated

public transport 3. Bicycle infrastructure 4. Measures to reduce inner

city parking 5. Improvements in battery

technologies for EVs

INNOVATIONS (III)

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5

Like

liho

od

of

INN

OV

ATI

ON

bec

om

ing

wid

esp

read

in 1

0 y

ears

Potential for INNOVATION to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term

A

B E

D

C

I

H

G

F J

K

L M N

A - Bicycle infrastructure B - Multi-modal, integrated public transport C - Improvements in battery technologies for electric vehicles D - Small electrified vehicles E - Reduce parking availability in city centres F - Intelligent transport systems

G - Demand management through road pricing L - Autonomously guided vehicles M - Wireless induction charging for electric vehicles N - Large scale biofuel production

H - Ultra fast broadband I - High quality video conferencing J - Electric vehicle charging infrastructure K - Real-time driver feedback software

HIGH likelihood HIGH potential

LOW likelihood HIGH potential

HIGH likelihood LOW potential

LOW likelihood LOW potential

INNOVATIONS (IV)

TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION

A

B E

D

C

I

H

G

F J

K

L M N

A - Bicycle infrastructure B - Multi-modal, integrated public transport C - Improvements in battery technologies for electric vehicles D - Small electrified vehicles E - Reduce parking availability in city centres F - Intelligent transport systems

G - Demand management through road pricing L - Autonomously guided vehicles M - Wireless induction charging for electric vehicles N - Large scale biofuel production

H - Ultra fast broadband I - High quality video conferencing J - Electric vehicle charging infrastructure K - Real-time driver feedback software

HIGH likelihood HIGH potential

LOW likelihood HIGH potential

HIGH likelihood LOW potential

LOW likelihood LOW potential

STEP CHANGES

STEP CHANGES (I)

1 2 3 4 5

Radical societal shift to healthierlifestyles in NZ*

Major investment in NZ rail system*

Sustainability (e.g. GHG emissionsreductions) become a major driver…

Decreasing the proportion oftransport spend on roads in NZ*

Significant global economic decline

Catastrophic natural disaster ordisease outbreak

Substantial increase in cost of airtravel (NZ domestic)*

Global price on carbon

Mass production of low cost electricvehicles

Significant breakthrough in cheapbattery/ storage technologies

Constraints in oil supply

Political instability in oil rich countries

Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels

Likelihood of STEP CHANGE becoming widespread in 10 years (1 = Low, 5 = High)

Top 5 step changes most likely to become widespread in the next 10 years: 1. Spikes in the price of

liquid fossil fuels 2. Political instability in oil

rich countries 3. Constraints in oil supply 4. Significant breakthrough

in cheap battery/ storage technologies

5. Mass production of low cost EVs

STEP CHANGES (II)

1 2 3 4 5

Catastrophic natural disaster or diseaseoutbreak

Substantial increase in cost of air travel(NZ domestic)*

Radical societal shift to healthierlifestyles in NZ*

Mass production of low cost electricvehicles

Major investment in NZ rail system*

Significant global economic decline

Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels

Decreasing the proportion of transportspend on roads in NZ*

Global price on carbon

Significant breakthrough in cheapbattery/ storage technologies

Political instability in oil rich countries

Constraints in oil supply

Sustainability (e.g. GHG emissionsreductions) become a major driver of…

Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term (1 = Low, 5 = High)

Top 5 step changes most likely to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term: 1. Sustainability becomes a

major driver of NZ policy 2. Constraints in oil supply 3. Political instability in oil

rich countries 4. Significant breakthrough

in cheap battery/ storage technologies

5. Global price on carbon

STEP CHANGES (III)

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5

Lik

eli

ho

od

of

ST

EP

CH

AN

GE

be

com

ing

wid

esp

read

in 1

0 y

ear

s

Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term

A

B

E

D

C

I H

G

F

J

K

L

M

A - Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels B - Political instability in oil rich countries C - Constraints in oil supply D - Significant breakthrough in cheap battery / storage technology E - Mass production of low cost electric vehicles

F - Sustainability becomes driver of policy in NZ G - Global price on carbon H - Decreasing the proportion of transport spend on roads in NZ I - Significant global economic decline J - Major investment in NZ rail system

K - Substantial increase in cost of air travel (NZ domestic) L - Catastrophic natural disaster or disease outbreak M - Radical societal shift to healthier lifestyles

HIGH likelihood HIGH potential

High likelihood Low potential

Low likelihood Low potential

Low likelihood High potential

STEP CHANGES (IV)

TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5

Lik

eli

ho

od

of

ST

EP

CH

AN

GE

be

com

ing

wid

esp

read

in 1

0 y

ear

s

Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term

A

B

E

D

C

I H

G

F

J

K

L

M

A - Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels B - Political instability in oil rich countries C - Constraints in oil supply D - Significant breakthrough in cheap battery / storage technology E - Mass production of low cost electric vehicles

F - Sustainability becomes driver of policy in NZ G - Global price on carbon H - Decreasing the proportion of transport spend on roads in NZ I - Significant global economic decline J - Major investment in NZ rail system

K - Substantial increase in cost of air travel (NZ domestic) L - Catastrophic natural disaster or disease outbreak M - Radical societal shift to healthier lifestyles

HIGH likelihood HIGH potential

High likelihood Low potential

Low likelihood Low potential

Low likelihood High potential

TIME FRAMES

TIME FRAMES

Item Median time frame

Readily available battery technologies enabling a 300km range for personal EVs

5-10 years

Inclusion of international aviation in post-Kyoto negotiations on global greenhouse gas emissions

5-10 years

A 20% increase in energy efficiency of freight movements in NZ 5-10 years

15% decrease in VKT for the private vehicle fleet in NZ 10-15 years

30% increase in the uptake of PT in NZ 10-15 years

Global price on carbon 10-15 years

Oil prices average $200/ barrel 10-15 years

Fully integrated, mixed modal transport system available in all NZ cities with a population over 100,000

15-20 years

EVs make up 20% of NZ’s private vehicle fleet 15-20 years

Autonomous vehicles make up 20% of NZ’s private vehicle fleet 20 years +

TIME FRAMES

Median – 5-10years

0

5

10

15

20

25

0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years15-20 years Beyond 20years

Never Don't know

Nu

mb

er

of

resp

on

de

nts

Readily available battery technologies enabling a 300km range for personal electric vehicles

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15years

15-20years

Beyond 20years

Never Don'tknow

Nu

mb

er

of

resp

on

de

nts

Oil prices average $200/barrel

Median – 10-15 years

TIME FRAMES

0

5

10

15

20

25

0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15years

15-20years

Beyond 20years

Never Don'tknow

Nu

mb

er

of

resp

on

de

nts

Electric vehicles make up 20% of New Zealand's private vehicle fleet

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0-5 years 5-10years

10-15years

15-20years

Beyond20 years

Never Don'tknow

Nu

mb

er

of

resp

on

de

nts

30% increase in the Uptake of public transport in New Zealand

Median – 15-20 years

Median – 10-15 years

CHARACTERISTICS OF A

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT

SYSTEM

CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUSTAINABLE

TRANSPORT SYSTEM

High levels of agreement

• Integrated multi-modal transport system in urban areas over 100,000 people (96% strongly agree or agree)

• Cross-modal ticketing systems ( 92%)

• Making the full cost of car ownership evident to the public so that all modes are on a level playing field (82%)

• Ensuring rural areas have access to information and communication technologies to support ICT (80%)

• Technologies to support modal choice (72%)

Lower levels of agreement

• Targeted design of transport for the needs of different segments of the population (56% neutral, disagree, or strongly disagree)

• Electrifying the entire rail system (40%)

DISCUSSION

THE FUTURE OF NEW

ZEALAND'S TRANSPORTATION

SYSTEM: THE FINDINGS OF A

FOUR-STAGE DELPHI SURVEY

Debbie Hopkins, Alaric McCarthy, Janet Stephenson Energy Cultures II Project

Centre for Sustainability (CSAFE) Debbie.hopkins@otago.ac.nz

MBIE (2014) Energy in New Zealand http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/energy-modelling/publications/energy-in-new-zealand/Energy-in-New-Zealand-2014.pdf

REFERENCES