NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02 · Los Angeles -Long...
Transcript of NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02 · Los Angeles -Long...
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NYU International Hospitality Industry
Investment Conference
Amanda W. Hite STR
President & COO
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Supply
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Middle East Leads in Development
2.5
1.0
5.9
1.2
3.8
1.1
0
2
4
6
Central- SouthAmerica
Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania
Supply % Change, April 2014 YTD
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Supply Growth Creeps Up
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Total U.S., Supply % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 4/2014
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U.S. Pipeline: Construction Accelerates
Phase 2014 2013 % Change
In Construction 103 72 42.6%
Final Planning 130 101 29.3%
Planning 150 157 -4.8%
Under Contract 383 330 16%
Total U.S. Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, April 2014 and 2013
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Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments
4.4 8.6
38.9
31.3
5.3
0.9
14.0
Luxury UpperUpscale
Upscale UpperMidscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
U.S. Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, April 2014
68%
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10 of Top 26 Markets With 2%+ Of Supply
U.S. Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, March 2014
Market Rooms UC % Of Existing
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 1,167 2.2%
Dallas, TX 1,785 2.3%
Washington, DC-MD-VA 2,500 2.3%
Boston, MA 1,250 2.4%
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 2,971 3.1%
Houston, TX 3,259 4.3%
Seattle, WA 1,889 4.6%
Denver, CO 1,981 4.8%
Miami-Hialeah, FL 2,442 5.0%
New York, NY 13,230 12.0%
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Total United States Supply Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year), 2014 - 2015
U.S. Supply Outlook
2014 2015 1.2% 1.6%
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Demand
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Middle East Leads Demand Growth
1.5
3.5
9.9
-2.3
4.3 3.7
-5
-2
1
4
7
10
Central- SouthAmerica
Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania
Demand % Change, April 2014 YTD
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U.S., Room Demand % Change, 12 Month Moving Average: 89 to March 14
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2009 2011 2013
Feb ’11 7.7%
Sept ’09 -7.1%
Demand Growth is Steady
Apr ‘14 2.5%
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U.S. Chain Scales, Demand % Change, Twelve Months Ended April 2014
1.4
2.8
4.9
2.3 2.5
1.6
-2
0
2
4
6
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale UpperMidscale
Midscale Economy
Upscale Leads Demand Growth
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Transient Occupancy Share Increases
43% 57%
2005
Group
Transient
36%
64%
2013
Group
Transient
*Transient and Group Occupancy as Share of Total OCC, 2005 and 2013
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Occupancy Segmentation by Class: Groups Finally Returning?
1.1
2.7
1.5 1.4
Luxury Upper Upscale
Transient % Change Group % Change
*Segmentation Occupancy % Change, by Class, April 2014 YTD
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Total United States Demand & Occupancy Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2014 - 2015
U.S. Demand Outlook
2014 2015 Demand 2.6% 2.2% Occupancy 1.4% 0.6%
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Average Daily Rate
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Select Global Regions ADR Percent Change (In US Dollars except Europe in Euros), April 2014 YTD
-3.9
1.9 3.0
-1.4 -2.0
-8.3
Middle East Leads in Rate Growth
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Steady ADR Growth As Room Demand Growth Continues
-10
-5
0
5
2008
Demand % ChangeADR % Change
-4.5%
3.7%
Total U.S., ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/2008 – 4/2014
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Scales: ADR Growth Healthy, Especially For Luxury
4.9
4.2 4.0
3.2 3.3
3.9
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Total U.S. Chain Scales: ADR % Change, April 2014 YTD
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Total United States Actual ADR ($) by Customer Segment, YTD 2010- April 2014
$165.88
$159.93
$175.84
$163.63
$183.93
$169.19
$193.45
$175.76
$203.19
$180.33
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
Transient Group
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NOTE: Data is for luxury and upper upscale classes only.
Strong Transient Room Rate Growth
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April 2014 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing Markets
Market ADR $ ADR % Change Nashville, TN 113.22 13.2
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 187.54 10.3 Denver, CO 105.78 7.8
Miami/Hialeah, FL 227.68 6.7 Boston, MA 156.51 6.2
New York, NY 227.39 1.6 Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 74.16 0.7
New Orleans, LA 160.22 0.1 Chicago, IL 112.11 -0.4
Washington, DC-MD-VA 146.29 -4.3
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Total United States ADR Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2014 - 2015
U.S. ADR Outlook
2014 2015 4.2% 4.3%
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RevPAR
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RevPAR growth in 3 of the four regions
April 2014 YTD, RevPAR % Change in USD, Europe in Euro
- 2.8%
+ 6.1%
+ 5.3%
+ 4.4%€
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Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1990 2000 2010
-16.8%
-2.6%
-10.1%
9% 8.6%
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 4/2014
65 Months 44 Mo. 112 Months
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April 2014 YTD RevPAR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing Markets
Market RevPAR % Change Nashville, TN 20.3 Denver, CO 20.1
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 14.2 St. Louis, MO-IL 13.6
Dallas, TX 12.1
Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 2.5 New Orleans, LA 0.8
Chicago, IL 0.1 New York, NY 0.0
Washington, DC-MD-VA -4.3
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2014 – 2015 Source: STR & TE
Outlook
2014 Forecast
2015 Forecast
Supply 1.2% 1.6%
Demand 2.6% 2.2%
Occupancy 1.4% 0.6%
ADR 4.2% 4.3%
RevPAR 5.7% 4.9%
U.S. Forecast Summary
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Total U.S., Estimated Total Revenue and Profitability* 2008 – 2013
146.0
125.5 133.4
146.5 154.8
163.0
36.7 24.5 28.2
33.9 37.2 41.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
In B
illio
ns
Revenue Net Income
*Representing all U.S. hotels that collectively provide room revenue data to STR. Net Income defined as House Profit less management fees, property taxes, insurance, and an imputed 4.0% reserve for replacement expense.
New Peaks Reached in 2013
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Key Takeaways • Industry is Profitable
• Supply Growth Accelerates
• First Quarter Demand Stronger than Expected • Group Demand: Finally Some Growth
• STR Forecast: Positive, Robust Growth
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