NYS High School Demographics Considerations for Change

Dec. 7th, 2005 1

New York State’s High School Demographics

Considerations for Change

SUNY Directors MeetingDecember 7, 2005

Herkimer County Community College

Renée M. Overdyke Director of Enrollment Analysis

Office of Enrollment ManagementSUNY System Administration

Dec. 7th, 2005 2

NYS High School DemographicsConsiderations for Change

NYS High School Graduate Projections

Regional Distributions

Racial/Ethnic Trends and Distributions

Future Analyses

Dec. 7th, 2005 3

NYS High School Projection M E T H O D O L O G Y

Originally developed by Dr. Glenwood Rowse, Coordinator, Office of Research and Information Systems NYSED.

Cohort Survival Method based on prior year grade-to-grade attrition (or growth) using at least four years of K-12 historical data.

Designed as a hybrid model that finds the best value, or “Grade Progression Rate” (GPR) to project future cohorts.

The model selects the best of 3 different ways of computing the GPR: (1.) basic average, (2.) weighted average and (3.) the “trend” or linear regression (R2) of the most recent years.

The level of analysis is the county; county #’s & ratios are generally quite stable making this a reliable level of detail to work from.

Important to remember any projection figures will vary as new data becomes available.

Accordingly, the first several projected years are likely to be more accurate, with the margin of error increasing the further out we project.

Data Source: The NYSED Institutional Master File

Dec. 7th, 2005 4

NYS High School GraduatesActual & Projected / Public & Non-public

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

175,000

180,000

185,000

190,000

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Actuals 1994 - 2004 Projections 2005 - 2016

Updates coming soon!

Dec. 7th, 2005 5

Source ComparisonNYS Projected HS Graduates [Public & Non-public]

(All sources used SED IMF data)

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

175,000

180,000

185,000

190,000

Overdyke

WICHE

SED

Dec. 7th, 2005 6SEE ABOVE

CLINTON

FRANKLIN

ESSEX

ST LAWRENCE

HA

MIL

TO

N

WARREN

WA

SHIN

GTO

N

SAR

ATO

GA

SCH’tdy

FULTON

MONT.

HE

RK

IME

R

ONEIDA

OTSEGO

SCHOHARIE

SCH’tdy

REN

SSELAER

CO

LU

MB

IAGREENE

MADISON

LEWIS

WESTCHESTER

ROCKLAND

ORANGE

SULLIVAN

DUTCHESS

ULSTER

DELAWARE

TOMPKINS

TIOGABROOME

CHENANGO

OSWEGO

JEFFERSON

ONONDAGA

CAYUGA

QUEENSMANHATTAN.

NYC – 5 Boroughs

STATEN IS.

BRONX

WAYNE

MONROE

ORLEANS

NIAGARAGENESEE

ONTARIO

SEN

EC

ALIVINGSTO

N

WYOM

INGERIE

CHAUTAUQUA

CATTARAUGUS

ALLEGANY

STEUBENCHEMUNG

SCHUYLER

YATES

NASSAU

SUFFOLK

Western

Northeast

NYC

BROOKLYN

% Change in Projected NYS High School Graduates

2004 (actual) vs. 2010 (projected)

CORTLAND

Mid-Hudson

Northern

Genesee Valley

Central

Long Island

+21% or more +11% to +20% +1% to +10%

-1% to -10% -11% to -20% -21% or less

ALBANY

Putnam

Dec. 7th, 2005 7SEE ABOVE

CLINTON

FRANKLIN

ESSEX

ST LAWRENCE

HA

MIL

TO

N

WARREN

WA

SHIN

GTO

N

SAR

ATO

GA

SCH’tdy

FULTON

MONT.

HE

RK

IME

R

ONEIDA

OTSEGO

SCHOHARIE

SCH’tdy

REN

SSELAER

CO

LU

MB

IAGREENE

MADISON

LEWIS

PUTNAM

WESTCHESTER

ROCKLAND

ORANGE

SULLIVAN

DUTCHESS

ULSTER

DELAWARE

TOMPKINS

TIOGABROOME

CHENANGO

OSWEGO

JEFFERSON

ONONDAGA

CAYUGA

QUEENSMANHATTAN.

NYC – 5 Boroughs

STATEN IS.

BRONX

WAYNE

MONROE

ORLEANS

NIAGARAGENESEE

ONTARIO

SEN

EC

ALIVINGSTO

N

WYOM

INGERIE

CHAUTAUQUA

CATTARAUGUS

ALLEGANY

STEUBENCHEMUNG

SCHUYLER

YATES

NASSAU

SUFFOLK

Western

Northeast

NYC

BROOKLYN

% Change in Projected NYS High School Graduates

2004 (actual) vs. 2015 (projected)

CORTLAND

Mid-Hudson

Northern

Genesee Valley

Central

Long Island

+21% or more +11% to +20% +1% to +10%

-1% to -10% -11% to -20% -21% or less

ALBANY

Putnam

Dec. 7th, 2005 8

NYS 12th Grade Enrollment Totals % White vs. % Students of Color

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

% White % Students of Color

Dec. 7th, 2005 9

NYS 12th Grade Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity

1976-77

Hispanic, 5.7%

Asian/PI, 1.1%

Black,14.7% Native American,

0.2%

White (NH), 78.2%

1986-87

White (NH)76.9%

Native American

0.2%

Black12.5%

Asian/PI3.1%

Hispanic7.3%

1996-97

Hispanic, 10.7%

Asian/PI, 6.1%

Black, 13.8%Native

American, 0.3%

White (NH), 69.1%

2004-05

Hispanic, 12.8%

Asian/PI, 6.6%

Black, 15.3%

Native American,

0.4%

White (NH), 65.0%

Dec. 7th, 2005 10

A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons

WESTERN REGION{Cohort size ranks 6th of the 8 Regents Regions.}

NIAGARA

ERIE

ALLEGANY

NIAGARA

ERIE

ALLEGANY

Total 19,962 100%

White 15,382 78.1%

Hispanic 735 3.7%

Asian/PI 279 1.4%

Black 2,988 15.2%

Native US 308 1.6%

2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

Dec. 7th, 2005 11


GENESEE VALLEY {Cohort size ranks 5th of the 8 Regents Regions.}

Total 19,793 100%

White 15,222 76.9%

Hispanic 1,046 5.3%

Asian/PI 366 1.8%

Black 3,103 15.7%

Native US 56 0.3%


-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

WAYNE

MONROE

GENESEEONTARIO

STEUBEN

SCHUYLER

YATES

Dec. 7th, 2005 12


CENTRAL REGION {Cohort size ranks 7th of the 8 Regents Regions.}

Total 17,362 100%

White 14,995 86.4%

Hispanic 404 2.3%

Asian/PI 269 1.5%

Black 1,565 9.0%

Native US 129 0.7%


-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

ONEIDA

OTSEGO

MADISON

DELAWARE

TIOGABROOME

OSWEGO

ONONDAGA

CAYUGA

Dec. 7th, 2005 13


NORTHERN REGION {Cohort size ranks 8th of the 8 Regents Regions.}

Total 3,868 100%

White 3,482 90.0%

Hispanic 63 1.6%

Asian/PI 52 1.3%

Black 149 3.9%

Native US 122 3.2%


-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

FRANKLIN

ST LAWRENCE

LEWIS

JEFFERSON

Dec. 7th, 2005 14


NORTHEAST REGION {Cohort size ranks 4th of the 8 Regents Regions.}

Total 20,770 100%

White 17,906 86.2%

Hispanic 699 3.4%

Asian/PI 393 1.9%

Black 1,739 8.4%

Native US 33 0.2%

2004-05 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads:

2004 vs. 2010

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

CLINTON

ESSEX

FULTON

MONT.SCH’tdy

GREENE

ALBANY

Dec. 7th, 2005 15


MID-HUDSON REGION {Cohort size ranks 3rd of the 8 Regents Regions.}

Total 34,044 100%

White 22,939 67.4%

Hispanic 4,906 14.4%

Asian/PI 1,352 4.0%

Black 4,786 14.1%

Native US 61 0.2%


-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

ORANGE

SULLIVAN

ULSTER

Putnam

WESTCHESTER

Dec. 7th, 2005 16


NYC – 5 BOROUGHS {Cohort size ranks 1st of the 8 Regents Regions.}

Total 96,411 100%

White 22,835 23.7%

Hispanic 33,302 34.5%

Asian/PI 10,572 11.0%

Black 29,263 30.4%

Native US 439 0.5%

2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads:

2004 vs. 2010

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

QUEENSMANHATTAN.

NYC – 5 Boroughs

STATEN IS.

BRONX

BROOKLYN

Dec. 7th, 2005 17


LONG ISLAND {Cohort size ranks 2nd of the 8 Regents Regions.}

Total 41,169 100%

White 29,079 70.6%

Hispanic 5,153 12.5%

Asian/PI 2,044 5.0%

Black 4,824 11.7%

Native US 69 0.2%

2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads:

2004 vs. 2010

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%

+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more

SUFFOLK

NASSAU

Dec. 7th, 2005 18

Notes of InterestUpstate/Downstate Divergences

Overall, Upstate NY’s general population grew by a mere 1.1 percent in the 1990’s, slower than the growth rate of every state but West Virginia and North Dakota.

Within Upstate NY, only two regions grew in the 1990’s, the Hudson Valley region which extends north of NYC through Albany and Saratoga.

Upstate NY’s racial/ethnic minority population is small and unevenly distributed among its metropolitan areas & segregated within them.

Overall, more people moved out of Upstate NY than moved in during the 1990’s; 1.7 million migrating out & 1.3 million coming in.

Nearly 30 percent of new residents in Upstate NY in the 1990s were prisoners.

Source: Brookings Institute/US Census

Dec. 7th, 2005 19

Notes of InterestUpstate/Downstate Divergences

NYC’s general population grew considerably during the 1990’s, with a record 8 million residents in 2000.

Neighborhoods throughout the city grew, especially the outer boroughs and surrounding areas.

NYC owes it’s population growth and unrivaled diversity to new arrivals from abroad. Whites, blacks and Hispanic’s each make up at least a quarter of the city’s population.

The city added nearly 800,000 residents from abroad. Without this gain in immigrants, the city’s population would have decreased over the 1990’s.

Nearly half of the city’s foreign-born come from the Caribbean and Latin America, but significant numbers also hail from Eastern Europe and East Asia.

Source: Brookings Institute/US Census

Dec. 7th, 2005 20

What’s Next??? Further refine and update projection model. Drill down to the district level, so we can tie to SUNY’s top

feeder schools.

Also try county (district?) level projections for racial/ethnic, gender, and socio-economic distributions.

Continue to tie NYS high school data to SUNY applicant and enrollee trends for planning purposes.

Take a closer look at the “Big Five” school districts.

Consider other NYS demographic features such as national origin, language, sub-cultural elements, etc.

Dec. 7th, 2005 21

Questions??? Contact:

Renée M. OverdykeDirector of Enrollment Analysis

Office of Enrollment ManagementSUNY System Administration

[email protected](518) 443 - 5474

New York State’s High School DemographicsConsiderations for Change

THANK YOU

NYS High School Demographics Considerations for Change

Documents

Transcript of NYS High School Demographics Considerations for Change