NWS Peachtree City, Georgia

February 22, 2016

1 AM Wed 1 PM Wed

Strengthening Frontal System

L

L

Warm

Sector

Outlook Valid 7am Tues – 7am Wed

Severe Weather Possible Tues Night/Wed

What: Scattered strong to severe

storms

Threats:

• Damaging wind

• Isolated tornadoes

When and where: Threat

increasing rapidly from SW by

late evening Tues

Confidence:

• Damaging Wind: Medium-High

• Tornadoes: Low-Medium

• Hail: Medium

Outlook Valid 7am Wed – 7am Thu

Severe Weather Possible Tues Night/Wed

What: Scattered strong to severe

storms

Threats:

• Damaging wind

• Isolated tornadoes

When and where: Threat shifting

eastward

Confidence:

• Damaging Wind: Medium-High

• Tornadoes: Low-Medium

• Hail: Medium

Initial Heavy Rain (Thru Tues)

• Priming pump for flooding

potential

• Will be evaluating initial

amounts for Flood Watch

potential before system

• Increases downed tree

potential from any strong

gusts with super-saturated

soils

Tues Night – Threat Increases

1 AM Wed

4 AM Wed

7 AM Wed

Discrete

supercells

possible

Embedded

supercells w/in

more

organized line

* One possible *

solution

Sensitive Environment

(High Shear, Low Instability)

Supercell Parameter

Values 2-6

Becomes

more

significant

Local Parameter for Similar Setup

Values >1.0 Become

more significant

Previous Cases Similar to This

(Tornado Reports)

Previous Cases Similar to This

(Severe Reports)

Storm Total Rain (Thru Wed)

• Much of north GA could have

flooding concerns (esp.

where any training of storms

dump locally higher)

• Even gusty winds from the

pressure system itself may

down trees (esp. higher

elevations of NE)

Hydrologic

Outlook Issued

(on top of 1.5-

2.5 in last week)

• Severe storms possible Tues night and Wed

• Damaging wind main threat - good chance for supercells

(storms with rotation) and some bowing segments,

though uncertainty on enough instability for tornado

development

• Flood threat increases with training of storms

• Wrap around moisture & colder air on backside could see

mix of rain to snow (Thurs morning for higher elevations

– little to no accum)

NOTE: Any breaks in cloud cover Wed AM/early afternoon

would increase threats

Next Briefing 2 pm Tues (February 23) * Will be emailing link to slides

Summary