Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park Towards a...

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Transcript of Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park Towards a...

  • Slide 1
  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park Towards a United States Earthquake Catalogue Why not start now with California? Why didnt we do this 10 years ago?
  • Slide 2
  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Three Parts Historical, Instrumental,Future Events Same attributes, different rules Can be stitched together
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Status Quo Many countries have national earthquake catalogs Basis for important products USA has no national catalog Every probability report, every national ground motion map redefines the catalog Waste of Time Inconsistent Products
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 A European Historical Earthquake Catalog YearMoDaHo 1578 0401 1578042711 1578052016 1578102104 1579012606 15790130 1580 040618 15800501 15801103 15801224 15810310 1581061807 1582 05 Ax SCIACCA Vrancea GERA BAS-PLATEAUX DAUPHINOIS Melilla MARCHE-BOISCHAUT ? Lorca.MU Myonia DOVER STRAITS TRANSYLVANIA BOXMEER Mlaga Alcal la Real POZZUOLI Lat Lon 37.50813.083 45.70026.600 50.88012.230 45.5835.350 35.267-2.933 46.5832.000 37.683-1.700 38.45022.310 51.0001.660 51.0001.660 46.50024.000 46.50024.000 51.6005.900 36.717-4.417 37.467-3.933 40.82214.123 RootRLNmdpIx Barbano et al., 19961117 Purcaru, 197922 Sieberg, 1940b22 SisFrance, 20091234 Martinez S. & M., 20021318 SisFrance, 200912207 Martinez S. & M., 20021317 Kouskouna et al., 199811108 Musson, 200811917-8 Musson, 2008117F Rthly, 195222 Rthly, 195222 Van Beurden, 189022 Martinez S. & M., 20021327 Martinez S. & M., 20021316-7 Arch.Mac.GNDT, 19951117-8 ? Io Mw 75.17 6.50 5.00 6-7 8 7-8 7 96.80 5.46 3.92 7 7 4.30 7 7-8 5.37 earthquake parameters
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 37.106, -7.8735.74 0.50 An Example from Europe: varied alternatives and results
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 0.50 5.40 0.23 6.81 0.50 6.41 0.50 5.60 California37.153, -7.7656.59 0.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 0.50 5.40 0.23 6.81 0.50 6.41 0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 0.35 5.97 0.01 6.38 0.50 6.00 0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 0.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 0.50 5.40 0.23 6.81 0.50 6.41 0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 0.35 5.97 0.01 6.38 0.50 6.00 0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 0.50 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)?Iberian catalog36.400, -7.7676.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 0.50 5.40 0.23 6.81 0.50 6.41 0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 0.35 5.97 0.01 6.38 0.50 6.00 0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 0.50 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)?Iberian catalog36.400, -7.7676.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 200737.170, -7.5806.90 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 0.50 5.40 0.23 6.81 0.50 6.41 0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 0.35 5.97 0.01 6.38 0.50 6.00 0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 0.50 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)?Iberian catalog36.400, -7.7676.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 200737.170, -7.5806.90 Tectonic Baptista et al., 200737.017, -7.8176.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results Phase 1: Compile for each event Use undergrads, interns Review, revise
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 0.50 5.40 0.23 6.81 0.50 6.41 0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 0.35 5.97 0.01 6.38 0.50 6.00 0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 0.50 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)?Iberian catalog36.400, -7.7676.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 200737.170, -7.5806.90 Tectonic Baptista et al., 200737.017, -7.8176.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results Phase 1: Compile for each event Use undergrads, interns Review, revise Phase 2:Expert Panel selects Preferred Path and WHY!
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Stakeholders Users: Mark Peterson, Ned Field $$$: NRC, COE, PG&E Enforcers: Management Experts: All Views Represented
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Include Parameters (and uncertainties) for All Significant Historical and Instrumental earthquakes Supported by all stakeholders (NEHRP,USGS, SCEC, etc.) Basis for all US earthquake hazard products A Unified Archive (Distributed?) Include Data Roots, alternative solutions Accessible-to-All On Line Catalog Attributes:
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 0.50 5.40 0.23 6.81 0.50 6.41 0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 0.35 5.97 0.01 6.38 0.50 6.00 0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 0.50 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)?Iberian catalog36.400, -7.7676.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 200737.170, -7.5806.90 Tectonic Baptista et al., 200737.017, -7.8176.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results Phase 1: Compile for each event Use undergrads, interns Review, revise Phase 2:Expert Panel selects Preferred Path and WHY!
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 The Easy Part: Instrumental List Pointers to related Intensity Data The Hard Part: Pre-Instrumental List Historical earthquakes -Paleoseismic events
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Instrumental Side: More to Do Explain Puzzling Magnitudes 1949 Puget Sound 1989 Loma Prieta
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Historical Earthquakes Build on the European experience
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 The Really Hard Part Controversial Historical Earthquakes Different compilations of data Different Analyses Different Locations or Magnitudes
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 US Complexity Counterparts? Historical? Instrumental? 1811-1812 New Madrid Where? Magnitude? 1906 San Francisco 3 Published Epicenters? 3 Published Magnitudes?
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  • Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Historical Earthquakes: Build List of Historical Earthquakes (100? M > 5 1/2 events) Construct Roots Empanel experts to select preferred solutions Management to Maintain and Support the catalog Do ii now! GEM will build and maintain the archive and internet interface