NUMBER+OF+OVERALL+SALES+CONTINUES+TOFALL+...The’2017’hot’spots%for%vacant%singleIfamily%land%sales%are%the%Town%ofJackson,%South%ofJackson%(South%Park),%...
Transcript of NUMBER+OF+OVERALL+SALES+CONTINUES+TOFALL+...The’2017’hot’spots%for%vacant%singleIfamily%land%sales%are%the%Town%ofJackson,%South%ofJackson%(South%Park),%...
3RD QUARTER
2017
NUMBER OF OVERALL SALES CONTINUES TO FALL
2017 marks the fourth year of dwindling sales in our valley. When compared to 2013, the overall numbers of sales are down 13%, home sales are down 27%, and single-‐‑family lot sales are down 15%. The only segment of the market where number of sales has not fallen is condos/townhomes, where the number of sales has hovered at the same level for five years running. For the past few years, we have pointed to dwindling available and affordable inventory as the reason for the slow down. This year, we see a slight increase in affordable inventory, yet the number of sales continues to fall. What’s going on? First, let’s take a look at the different segments of our market: While the condo/townhome median sale price increased 40% since 2013, inventory in this segment continues to replenish itself. On the flip side, while the single-‐‑family home median sale price increased 47% since 2013, the number of overall home sales is down 27%. This drop in the number of home sales can be directly attributed to the drop in home sales under $1 million (down 57%). The number of single-‐‑family lot sales since 2013 is also down, having dropped 15%, yet the median sale price is up 18%. While it appears single-‐‑family land sales are faring better than homes, please keep in mind we are down 54% in the number of land sales when compared to 2007, or the height of our market. WHY THE SLOW DOWN IN NUMBER OF SALES? Two factors are playing a big part—the age of available single-‐‑family homes, and the cost of new construction and remodeling. Looking at current home inventory under $1 million, 69% of the homes are 30+ years old, with most in need of major remodeling. During the Great Recession many locals saved their money and were able to purchase a home with 20% down and still had money to upgrade or remodel before the family moved in. Today, with the average sale price of a single-‐‑family home being $1.86 million (or 24% higher than 2013), locals can no longer afford the 20% down and have money left over to remodel. While remodeling cost is hard to gauge, new construction prices are being quoted from $400 per sq. ft. to more than $1,000 per sq. ft. Combine the new construction cost with the median sale price of single-‐‑family vacant lot in 2017 ($795,000) and a newly built 2,000 sq. ft. modest home will cost you $1,595,000. This price range is impossible for most local buyers.
Is the slowdown affecting property values? Based on the ever-‐‑increasing median sales prices, it does not appear so. Since 2013, the median sale price of a single-‐‑family home is up 47%, the condo/townhome median sale price is up 40% and the single-‐‑family vacant land median sale price is up 18%. Another indication of increasing home values; Q-‐3 2017 marks the first time in the history of Jackson Hole real estate where we tracked more homes sold in the $1 to $2 million price range (68) than homes in the under $1 million price range (61). If you would like an assessment of the current value of your Jackson Hole property, please contact us for a free comparative market analysis by calling 307-‐‑732-‐‑3400 or emailing your Clear Creek Group agent. DATA-‐DRIVEN REPORT FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2017 The Jackson Hole Report is the oldest, most accurate and comprehensive real estate market report in Teton County, WY. We derive our statistics from a privately maintained database that tracks every single sale, not just the transactions reported through the MLS. NOTE: Only 68% of sale prices valley-‐‑wide in 2017 is reported to MLS.
THE OVERALL MARKET 1 q When compared with the first nine months of 2016, the overall number of sales has decreased by 5%. Following suit, the dollar volume dropped 9%, and the average and median sale prices both dropped by 3%. The decline in the number of sales reflects the decrease in the number of single-‐‑family home sales under $1 million (down 26%). The decline in the under $1 million segment is nothing new, as we have seen a steady drop since late 2013—the tail-‐‑end of the great recession. Since then, the number of home sales under $1 million has dropped 57%. NOTE: For the first time in the history of Jackson Hole, there were more home sales between $1 and $2 million than under $1 million. Overall properties under contract decreased by 34% when compared to this time last year. Dollar volume and the average list price are down 45% and 18% respectively. Bucking the trend, the median sale price is up 8% to $1,925,000. NOTE: Currently 29% of the properties under contract are listed for under $1 million, and only 10% are listed for less than $500,000. The increase in the median list prices is the result of the strong upper-‐‑end of the market ($2+ million), where 53% of under contract listings have contributed 78% of the dollar volume.
Overall inventory of active listings increased by 1% to 430, and the dollar volume is up 4%. Following suit, the average and median listing prices have climbed 3% and 13% respectively. This increase in inventory is most acutely felt in the $3+ million segment, i.e. the “Luxury Market,” where available home inventory is up 35%—the highest level ever. NOTE: The number of active home listings under $1 million is down 30%.
The upper end of the market—properties priced at $2 million and above—reports a 14% drop in sales. Closer inspection finds that 18 of the 79 high-‐‑end sales closed for more than $5 million—down 18% from last year—and only three sold for more than $10 million. NOTE: While the number of $2+ million sales represented only 18% of the total transactions, this segment accounted for 53% of the overall dollar volume for the first nine months of 2017. To learn more about the Jackson Hole luxury market, please contact your Clear Creek Group agent or call 307-‐‑732-‐‑3400.
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES Single-‐‑family home sales have slowed somewhat this year. When compared to the first nine months of 2016, the number of sales was down 18% and the dollar volume decreased 15%. Meanwhile, the average and median sale prices have increased by 4% and 7% respectively. These increases in the average and median prices reflect a drop in under $1 million home sales (down 26%). In 2017, the hot sale price for single-‐‑family homes hovers between $1 to $2-‐‑million, where 68 sales have occurred. The $500,000 to $1 million million-‐‑price range fared almost as well, with 61 sales so far this year, accounting for 37% of overall home sales. Hot areas for home sales: The Town of Jackson leads with 32% of total sales in the valley, followed by South of Jackson with 21% of the sales. Rafter J Ranch won the title of top subdivision with 11 homes sold, with Cottonwood Park coming in second with 8 homes sold. Single-‐‑family homes under contract are down by 41%. Following suit, the dollar volume, and average and median asking prices for homes under contract are down 52%, 18% and 10% respectively. Of the 20 homes under contract, 6 are listed for under $1 million while 5 are listed for over $3 million. Available inventory of listed homes is currently up by 18% with dollar volume up 30%. Meanwhile, the average and median listing prices are once again breaking records for the first nine months of the year. The average listing price has climbed 10% to reach $4.05 million, and the median listing price jumped 9% to $2.495 million. NOTE: Of the 197 homes currently on the market, only 1 is listed for under $500,000. In the under $1 million segment, there are 27 homes for sale (second lowest amount since 2007). In the $1-‐‑ to $3-‐‑million price range inventory is at par when compared to 2016, while the $3+ million inventory is up 34% to 88 listings. As of October 1, the least expensive home on the market is listed for $465,000—a 1,334 sq. ft. two bedroom, one bath home in Hoback Junction. On the flip side, the most expensive listing is $28 million. This retreat North of Jackson features an 11,500 sq. ft. four-‐‑bedroom, five-‐‑bath modern home built in 1993. The 40 private acres offer 3/4 mile of trout-‐‑filled spring creeks and private golf under the shadow of the Tetons.
CONDO/TOWNHOME Condo and townhome sales to date are on par with 2016, with no change. Meanwhile, the dollar volume and average sale price are both up 6%, but the median sale price is down 3%. While condo sales over $1 million are down 8%, do not read much into this as there are currently 29 condos listed for over $1 million under contract. Over half of the activity in the $1+ million segment is occurring in Teton Village and Shooting Star, where 64% of all sales over $1 million occurred in 2017, and 63% of all listings over $1 million are under contract. The hot spot for condo/townhome sales lies between $500,000 and $1 million where 78 sales occurred, accounting for 47% of all condo/townhome sales. Of those 78 sales, 55% were in the Town of Jackson, and 14% were South of Town. Of all the 167 condos sold so far in 2017, the Town of Jackson led with 57% of total sales, followed by Teton Village with 21%. NOTE: With only 15 sales under $300,000 so far in 2017 and no condos currently listed in that price range, it appears the window of opportunity in this price range has closed. The number of condo/townhomes under contract is down 21%. The dollar volume is down 20% and the median list price is down 19%. Currently, there are 38 condo/townhomes under contract, with almost half located in Shooting Star in Teton Village. NOTE: Of the condos under contract, 21% are listed under $1 million (down 53%) and 10% are listed under $500,000. Because the greatest demand continues to be for condos under $500,000, supply is steadily shrinking in this price range as new listings are gobbled up quickly. Current inventory indicates that the number of condo listings in this segment is down 82% when compared to the 2009 high (96 listings versus the current 17).
Available inventory of condos/townhomes has inched up 5% so far in 2017. The current condo/townhome inventory (67 listings) reflects one of the lowest in 20 years. In stark contrast, we hit a 20-‐‑year high back in 2009 with 200 condos on the market at the close of the third quarter. While the number of listings is up slightly, the average and median list prices slipped 12% and 16% respectively. Here’s how the inventory breaks down: 17 under $500,000; 31 between $500,000 and $1 million; 14 between $1 million and $2 million; and 5 over $2 million.
SINGLE FAMILY VACANT LAND
Single-‐‑family vacant lots are seeing a reversal from 2016, with a 22% increase in number of sales in the first nine months of 2017. While the number of sales is up, the average and median sale prices are down, 31% and 28% respectively. The big drop in the median sale price ($795,000) reflects a 73% increase in the number of sales under $1 million, with 15 of those selling for under $500,000. Two things to note: 1) There are currently 11 vacant land listings under $500,000 on the market, or 8% of the available inventory; and (2) the 82 land sales so far in 2017 is less than half the number of land sales in the first nine months of 2007, which registered 177 sales.
The 2017 hot spots for vacant single-‐‑family land sales are the Town of Jackson, South of Jackson (South Park), and North of Jackson to Moran, all experiencing at least a 50% increase in number of sales when compared to the first nine months of 2016. The number of single-‐‑family vacant lots under contract is down 45% compared to this time last year. Following suit, the dollar volume is down, and the average listing price is down 16%. NOTE: Of the vacant single-‐‑family lots under contract, only one is listed for under $500,000. Available inventory of listed lots in the third quarter is down 12%. Dollar volume is down 15%, and the average list price is down 4%. Based on the 2017 sales pace thus far, current inventory of single-‐‑family vacant land will sustain the market for 16 months. JACKSON HOLE LUXURY REPORT
Market dynamics have changed drastically during the 22 years we have published the Jackson Hole Report. During our tenure tracking real estate, we marveled at the growth of the high-‐‑end market, and came to realize this elite segment warranted special attention. For this reason, we created the Jackson Hole Luxury Report in 2013, a limited-‐‑edition newsletter focused exclusively on high-‐‑end properties, which we define as $3 million and above. . The purpose of this limited-‐‑edition report is to provide high-‐‑end buyers and sellers with a clear understanding of the local luxury landscape.
Building on the analysis of the Jackson Hole Report, we delved deeper into the dynamics of the market above $3 million. Since 2013, each semi-‐‑annual edition has brought great response and feedback from our readers. Some seek our knowledge of their property value for estate planning, or when considering to sell. Others need more information about the overall luxury market. Many existing and future property owners also request more information about real estate related services such as Caretaking, Asset Management and Villa Rental opportunities. The singular nature of luxury listings in Jackson Hole requires that each sale be examined in great detail and truly special properties must be considered incomparable. When pricing this type of property, you need a luxury data specialist to ensure success. As a courtesy to new clients, we provide a free confidential market analysis of their distinctive property, and continue to update the current value of the property for estate planning and/or trust updates. . While the Luxury Report focuses on luxury homes, condos and single-‐‑family vacant parcels, our mailing list considers a wider lens inclusive of select commercial properties, large tracts of land, and ranches in Jackson Hole. Currently there are 1,593 properties worth $3+ million in Jackson Hole, and on our mailing list. If you are not currently receiving the Luxury Report; would like to know what your luxury property is worth in today’s market; or to sign up for the digital version, please contact your Clear Creek Group agent or call 307-‐‑732-‐‑3400.
A L E A D E R I N L U X U RYFULL SERVICE REAL ESTATE, PROPERTY MANAGEMENT & VILLA RENTAL
The Clear Creek Group has been serving discerning homeowners in
Jackson Hole for over twelve years; offering full service Real Estate,
Property Management, and Villa Rentals in premier properties across the
valley. Our brokerage team is seasoned, highly experienced in the luxury
market, and poised to handle all of your real estate needs, from purchasing
a vacation home, relocating permanently, or acquiring properties for your
investment portfolio. As your property manager, we will represent you
through the entire real estate transaction process and beyond.
1 2 0 We s t P e a r l A v e n u e , J a c k s o n , W y o m i n g 8 3 0 0 1 ( 8 7 7 ) 4 2 7 - 3 4 0 0 t h e c l e a r c r e e k g r o u p . c o m / r e a l e s t a t e
for a week... for a month...
for a l ifetime. . .
DISTINGUISHED, PERSONALIZED SERVICE
IMPECCABLE REPUTATION
• Experienced agents with extensive
history, intimate knowledge of the
Jackson Hole luxury market
• On-site team who lives, works and
plays in Jackson, and is passionate
about sharing with you
• We bring an abundance of
qualified buyers, serving over 450
villa rental clients annually, many
of whom transition to homeowners
after falling in love with Jackson
• Over 20 years of market data,
analytics, operating cost and rental
performance history to help you
make the most informed decisions
pertaining to your real estate asset
• Our clients know what they want; we take the time to get it
right, and we work tirelessly to exceed their expectations
• On-site team of talent, including graphic design, staging, and
marketing, all available to prepare your home for sale or for rent
• Our team of caretakers, housekeepers, and maintenance
engineers is on call 24 hours per day, ensuring you can rest-
easy, knowing your home is well cared for, no matter what
• We operate with a single-minded commitment to excellence
and meaningful relationships
1 2 0 We s t P e a r l A v e n u e , J a c k s o n , W y o m i n g 8 3 0 0 1 ( 8 7 7 ) 4 2 7 - 3 4 0 0 t h e c l e a r c r e e k g r o u p . c o m / r e a l e s t a t e
L E T U S H E L P Y O U . . .FIND THE PERFECT PROPERTY, TAKE CARE OF YOUR CURRENT HOME OR
MAXIMIZE YOUR RENTAL REVENUE
AS YOUR PROPERTY MANAGER, we will protect and enhance your home’s value. A dedicated
Homeowner Relations Manager will serve as your ambassador and source of personalized
concierge services. Our company founders and tenured management team are based
in Jackson, providing an unparalleled depth of experience, drawing from the real estate,
property/asset management, hospitality, and real estate development sectors.
WHEN YOU CHOOSE TO RENT YOUR HOME, we will maximize revenue generating
opportunities based on your personal goals. Our rental portfolio includes the most sought-
after properties in the valley. We promote them through implementation of a comprehensive
marketing plan, including digital, direct sales, social media, revenue management and
strategic partnerships.
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR FULL RANGE OF CONCIERGE AND LIFESTYLE SERVICES, and
allow us to help create unique, memorable experiences while making the most of your time in
Jackson. Let us pay your bills, accept and deliver your packages, tune your skis, and deliver
your vehicle to the airport. All you need to do is turn up!
Our programs are highly-flexible and personalized, all in an attempt to accommodate your
specific goals. We provide you with peace of mind and the assurance your Jackson home is
well cared for, regardless of where you may be in the world.
1 2 0 We s t P e a r l A v e n u e , J a c k s o n , W y o m i n g 8 3 0 0 1 ( 8 7 7 ) 4 2 7 - 3 4 0 0 t h e c l e a r c r e e k g r o u p . c o m / r e a l e s t a t e
Call us today at 877-427-3400 or 307-732-3400 and discover how The Clear Creek Group will help you find the perfect property, take care of your current home or maximize rental revenue.
WANT TO LEARN MORE AND SUPPORT NEXT
YEAR’S TRIBAL YOUTH CORPS? CALL 307-732-0629 OR VISIT WWW.GTNPF.ORG
Grand Teton National Park Foundation’s Tribal Youth Corps Helps Dreams Become Reality
“Being outdoors and working with a national park—this has been a dream I’ve always wanted. It seemed like a great op-portunity to get my foot in the door.” That’s how Kirkland Shakespeare summed up his experience last summer working
on Tribal Youth Corps (TYC) in Grand Teton National Park. The program brings Native American high-school students
from regional reservations into the park for multiweek internships. Participants improve historic properties and renew
trails while being immersed in the outdoors. The time also introduces National Park Service (NPS) careers and public
lands stewardship. Shakespeare, one of nine students from Wind River Reservation, powered through heat, rain, and dust
with teammates during long workdays. In off hours, the crew tested their mental and physical mettle by rock climbing,
rafting, and backpacking.
TYC began when a Foundation donor provided funding for improvements on Mormon Row, and Montana Conservation
Corps wanted to employ young Native American recruits. Grand Teton realized tribal students could do the job and hone
their skills all while exploring their ancestral lands. Two years and twenty students later, TYC has logged a growing list of
accomplishments.
What about the future? Shakespeare wants to work outdoors. Whatever path these young people choose, one thing is
certain: They are gathering experiences, skills, and contacts while developing a can-do attitude. Whether they pursue a
career in the NPS or something different, their summer has been one of self-discovery, confidence building, and a wider
view of the world.
Thanks to all Tribal Youth Corps participants and our partners—Grand Teton National Park and Montana Conservation
Corps—for helping the Foundation make the 2017 program a huge success.
Our decades-‐‑deep knowledge of the valley combined with the international reach of The Clear Creek Group makes us your Local Real Estate Experts. The JACKSON HOLE REPORT is published semi-‐‑annually with additional email updates for the first and third quarters. While other realtors attempt to report on our market with MLS statistics only, we track every single transaction in Teton County. Consider, for instance, the first nine months of 2017: only 68% of sales prices valley-‐‑wide have been reported to MLS; in contrast, we have logged information on each and every sale on a daily basis. Our data-‐‑driven report is the most accurate and trusted real estate news source in Teton County. If you would like to sign up for these quarterly email updates, or need more detailed information about our market, please contact your Clear Creek Group agent or call 307-‐‑732-‐‑3400. You can also find the Jackson Hole Report online at www.jacksonholereport.com. Whether you are pricing your property to sell in the upcoming winter season or weighing the right time to buy, rest assured that as our client, you will have the upper hand with access to current market statistics and an impeccable level of service and personal attention. If you would like to sign up for quarterly email updates, or need more detailed information about our local real estate market, or planning to sell this winter, please contact your Clear Creek Group agent or call 307-‐‑732-‐‑3400. We hope this report has given you a snapshot of market trends. As always, we would be glad to discuss them further with you. Please contact your Clear Creek Group agent if you plan to list your property this winter, would like a more detailed analysis of specific areas or back issues of JACKSON HOLE REPORT, or if you are scouting for a professional Realtor to represent you in your next real estate transaction. We look forward to working with you. Sincerely,
David Viehman, Associate Broker Devon Viehman, Associate Broker “2013 Wyoming Realtor of the Year” “2018 President -‐‑ Wyoming Association of Realtors” Luke Smith, Sales Associate The Clear Creek Group The Jackson Hole Report toll-‐‑free: (855)690-‐‑4004 direct: (307)690-‐‑4004 fax: (855)722-‐‑2023 www.JacksonHoleReport.com *This third-‐‑quarter report is not posted on the Jackson Hole Report website. Instead, it is provided exclusively via email, as a service to all our valued customers and clients here at The Clear Creek Group. The data is collected and analyzed quarterly to help you keep up with trends in our market. *While other local Real Estate Brokerages attempt to report on the local real estate market, we are the only Realtors who track every single transaction. Therefore, if you want the most accurate information to help guide you through your next real estate transaction, call us today. We are the Experts. *All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed. . *All statistics quoted in this newsletter are based on sales in 2017 compared to sales in 2016. . *Median sale price is the cost of a property that has an equal number of sales above and below it on the price scale. . *Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales. . *The word “Overall” in this newsletter refers to all sales in Teton County combined (homes, lots, condos, commercial and ranch). *Alta, Wyoming is not included in this report. . *The term “Market Value” means; the value of a property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value. © Copyright 1995 -‐‑ 2017 by David Viehman and Devon Viehman, dba The Clear Creek Group. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without explicitly written permission from David Viehman.