Nuclear Power in a Carbon-Constrained Energy FutureNuclear Power in a Carbon-Constrained Energy Future

Timothy J. LeahyIdaho National Laboratory

October 26, 2010

9 billion9 billion

2050 Estimated Population

Energy is the Fuel of National Prosperity

Source: Royal Dutch Shell, “Exploring the Future- Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities

Per capita Electricity Consumption vs. Per capita GDP for various nations of the world

Per capita Electricity Consumption vs. Per capita GDP for various nations of the world

Per capita GDP (purchase power parity US $)Per capita GDP (purchase power parity US $)

Correlation Between Electricity Consumption & GDP

Extent of Summer Sea Ice

2007 – Smallest Summer Sea Ice Extent in Recorded History – 1 Million Square Miles vs. Previous Low of 1.5 Million Square Miles (2005)

(source: European Space Agency)

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U.S. Energy Landscape — Our ChallengeU.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

by Sector, 2008

TOTAL 5,849 Million Metric TonsCO2-equivalent

U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2008(Quadrillion Btu)

Supply SourceSupply Source Demand SectorDemand Sector

83% Fossil83% FossilSource: EIA Annual Energy Review, 2008

Source IEA : Energy to 2050 -Scenarios for a Sustainable Future

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Nuclear

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Coal

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Population

The additional needs will mainly come from large developing Countries: China, India, Brazil…

The additional needs will mainly come from large developing Countries: China, India, Brazil…

Energy Supply Will Increase to Meet Global Demand

Jacques Bouchard, GLOBAL 2007

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Nuclear Energy Today and in the Near Future

United States• 20% of our electricity• Number one source of

emission-free electricity• 104 reactors in operation• 13 license applications for

22 reactors currently under review by the NRC

International• 16 countries rely on nuclear to

supply at least one-quarter of their total electricity

• 333 reactors in operation outside the U.S.

437 reactors in 30 countries generating15% of the world’s electricity — 55 new reactors under construction worldwide

Source: IAEA 2006

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions

CO2 emission rates for electricity generating alternatives (storage: batteries, pumped hydro, compressed air storage; CCS Carbon Capture and Storage) (Weisser 2007)

Lignite

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Meeting America’s Energy Challenge — Context

• Modern human existence is energy dense

– Not likely to change– Costs and consequences– Not just a U.S. problem

• Production, distribution and consumption of energy has costs, risks and environmental impacts

• Energy infrastructures are expensive and time consuming to change.

• Advocates / Opponents

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Meeting America’s Energy Challenge — Technology

• Technology is a Means to an End

– We are responsible for its impacts today and tomorrow

– Demonizing or romanticizing will not lead to good decision making

We must better understand and manage technology.

Source: World Resource Institute

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Meeting America’s Energy Challenge…

• Requires respect for and understanding of technology and implications of its use

• Requires vision and leadership – collaboratively from government and industry

The Time is Now!