Nuclear Power forNuclear Power forRemote Alaska LocationsRemote Alaska Locations

AAEP Lunch 19 October 2005Steve Colt

UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research

OverviewOverview

• Context• Galena study framework• Galena results• Extension to other communities• Extension to mine sites• Economic considerations going

forward

Evolution of Conversion DevicesEvolution of Conversion Devices

Source: Smil 1994

Changing Mix of U.S.Changing Mix of U.S. Primary Energy “Sources” Primary Energy “Sources”

Circa 1992

Turning to Alaska—Turning to Alaska—

Primary Energy Input per Alaskan

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Alaska GasNetwork

PCEplaces

Other

Bar

rels

of

Oil

per

Yea

r

Wood and all other

Other petroleum

Jet Fuel

Gasoline

Diesel

Hydro

Coal

Natural Gas

Primary energy consumption per Primary energy consumption per AlaskanAlaskan

barrels oil per person per yearbarrels oil per person per year

Final Energy Consumption per Alaskan

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Alaska GasNetwork

PCEplaces

Other

Bar

rels

of

Oil

per

Yea

r Jet air transportation

Other transportation

Industrial

Oil/propane/wood direct

Natural gas direct

generation losses

Electricity

Final energy consumption per Final energy consumption per AlaskanAlaskan

barrels oil per person per yearbarrels oil per person per year

Electricity Cost per kWhElectricity Cost per kWh

10

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

cents

per

kW

h

Anchorage PCE Places

Potential Requirements of Large Potential Requirements of Large MineMine

• Donlin Creek Example:60 MW average load60 MW average load

= 526 million kWh per yr= 526 million kWh per yr

= 35 million gallons of diesel = 35 million gallons of diesel @15kWh/gal@15kWh/gal

= 700,000 drums = 700,000 drums

• Plus rolling stock energy needs……

Galena Electric Power StudyGalena Electric Power Study• Requested by City of Galena• Funded by DOE Arctic Energy Office• Consider all reasonable options for

meeting electric power needs – utility perspective

• Multidisciplinary study team:– Bob Chaney, SAICBob Chaney, SAIC– Ron Johnson, Richard Weiss, UAF engineeringRon Johnson, Richard Weiss, UAF engineering– Steve Colt, UAA/ISER, economicsSteve Colt, UAA/ISER, economics– Greg White, INEEL, environmental Greg White, INEEL, environmental

/permitting/permitting

Galena Study FrameworkGalena Study Framework

• Compare total system cost to City over 30 yrs @ 4% real discount rate

• Express results as $/kWh cost of service• Focus on electric utility needs:

– 1.8 MW peak1.8 MW peak– 11,000 MWh per yr11,000 MWh per yr

• Consider other uses of power:source of load type units 2010Utility electricity firm MWh 11,002 Existing city heating loop firm MWh 2,344 Residential space heating firm MWh 7,413 Greenhouse firm MWh 570 Air station heat non-firm MWh-equiv 8,464 Total energy requirements at power plant MWh 29,794

current cost of diesel power = 26 cents per kWh

Fuel

variable genFixed gen

Distribution

Admin

generation = 18 cents/kWh

distribution & admin = 8 cents/kWh

Galena: Current SituationGalena: Current Situation

Galena Assumptions: DieselGalena Assumptions: Diesel

• Efficiency 14 kWh/gal (15 for new)• Diesel Price:

– Low = $1.50 + 0% real/yrLow = $1.50 + 0% real/yr– High = $2.15 + 2% real/yrHigh = $2.15 + 2% real/yr– Delivery to homes: add $.75/galDelivery to homes: add $.75/gal

• Diesel Capital: $400/ kW

Galena Assumptions: CoalGalena Assumptions: Coalselected low high

units value (yr 1) value valueCoal plant capital cost $/kW 3,000 Coal plant availability 95%Coal plant efficiency (electric output/coal input) 40% 30% 40%

Coal or nuclear "heat to electric" efficiency 50%Coal fuel

Energy content M Btu/ton 20 Delivered price of coal $/ton 100 100 125 Ash disposal cost $/ton 20

Nonfuel coal O&MCoal labor people 6cost per operator $/yr 53,200variable O&M and consummables $/kWh 0.01

Fuel subassemblies (18 SAs)

Reflectors are moving upward and surrounding the core slowly(*) in order to compensate the reactivity loss during 30 years burn-up. If an accident occurred, reflector would fall down to make core subcritical.

(*) average velocity: 1mm/week approximately

Center SA: Ultimate shutdown rod (neutron absorber as back up)

44S Reactor CoreS Reactor Core

Fuel material: U-Zr (metallic)

Coolant material: sodium

Core lifetime: 30 years

Core height: 2.5 m (50MWe)

2.0m (10MWe)

Core diameter: 1.20m (50MWe)

0.87m (10MWe)Reactivity temperature coefficient: negative

Galena Assumptions: NuclearGalena Assumptions: Nuclear

selected low highunits value (yr 1) value value

Nuclear capacity MW 10.0 Nuclear capital cost $ 0

Nuclear security staff people 34 4 34Nuclear operator staff people 8 Nuclear availability 95%

Nuclear annual supplies and expenses $/yr 500,000

Galena Results: DieselGalena Results: Diesel

Diesel System: Electric Rates

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45

real

yea

r 20

04 $

per

kW

h

$2.15/gal, +2%/yr

$1.50/gal, flat

Galena Results: NuclearGalena Results: Nuclear

Nuclear system: Average Electric Rates

-

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

real

yea

r 20

04 $

per

kW

h

42 staff, $1.50/gal flat diesel

12 staff, $2.15/gal + 2%/yrdiesel

Galena Results: Avoided CO2Galena Results: Avoided CO2Avoided diesel fuel:

733,000 gallons (utility electricity)733,000 gallons (utility electricity)++ 220,000 gallons (residential heating)220,000 gallons (residential heating)++ 471,000 gallons (air station heating)471,000 gallons (air station heating)= 1.4 million gallons per yr (in 2010)= 1.4 million gallons per yr (in 2010)X 10 kg CO2/gallonX 10 kg CO2/gallon

= 14,245 tons CO2/yr= 14,245 tons CO2/yr@ $9.33/ton (current EU spot price)@ $9.33/ton (current EU spot price)= $133,000 /yr= $133,000 /yr= 9 cents per gallon= 9 cents per gallon

Daily Loads and Nuclear Capacity - year 2039

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91

101

111

121

131

141

151

161

171

181

191

201

211

221

231

241

251

261

271

281

291

301

311

321

331

341

351

361

day of year

meg

awat

ts

greenhouse

air station heat

home heat

existing dist. heat

utility electricity

nuclear capacity

nuclear capacity

Excess Power from 10 MW Excess Power from 10 MW outputoutput

Hydrogen – Basic ConsiderationsHydrogen – Basic Considerations

• H2 is energy carrier, not energy source• Density: Liquid - 0.071kg/l or 0.59 lb/gal

– about the same as styrofoam• Energy Content: 30,000 BTU/gal – 1/5

that of diesel• Best form of storage appears to be as a

liquid. Others under development include hydrates and salts.

Hydrogen: Cost to ProduceHydrogen: Cost to Produce• Size: 1 MW(e) input; 404,000 gal out• Capital:

H2 generator: H2 generator: $1.5 million$1.5 million

H2 liquefier:H2 liquefier: $2.0 million$2.0 million

Storage tanks:Storage tanks: $0.95 million$0.95 million

N liquefier:N liquefier: $0.7 million$0.7 million

Filling Stn, other:Filling Stn, other: $1.0 million$1.0 million

• Total Capital:$6.2 million• Total O&M: $62,000+ per yr

Hydrogen: Cost to TransportHydrogen: Cost to Transport

• 500,000 gal H2 = 29 barge trips with one 17,000 gal cryogenic tank@$7,800 per trip@$7,800 per trip

= $447,000= $447,000

= $0.92/gal= $0.92/gal

• ~=$4.00 per gallon of diesel on a Btu basis.

Capital Power Cost H2 Production Cost

Target Cost to beat diesel

$6.2 million

-0- $46/MBTU $15-30 / MBTU

-0- 1.5 cents/kWh $17/MBTU $15-30 / MBTU

Galena: Hydrogen EnterpriseGalena: Hydrogen Enterprise•To serve city, school, and military To serve city, school, and military vehiclesvehicles

•Replace 90,000 gal gasoline with 400,000 Replace 90,000 gal gasoline with 400,000 gal liquid H2gal liquid H2

Simple Extension I: BethelSimple Extension I: Bethel

• Load:– 41.2 MWh + 1%/yr41.2 MWh + 1%/yr– 6.7 MW peak6.7 MW peak

• Nuclear Labor:– 8 operators + 20 security8 operators + 20 security

• Misc O&M:– $2 million (viz $3.5 million Toshiba 50 $2 million (viz $3.5 million Toshiba 50

MW)MW)

Daily Loads and Nuclear Capacity - year 2039

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1

11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91

101

111

121

131

141

151

161

171

181

191

201

211

221

231

241

251

261

271

281

291

301

311

321

331

341

351

361

day of year

meg

awat

ts

nuclear capacity

Nuclear replaces electricity,Nuclear replaces electricity,not heatnot heat

Simple Extension I: ResultsSimple Extension I: Results

• NPV busbar cost excluding nuclear capital:– Diesel: $113 - $181 million depending on Diesel: $113 - $181 million depending on

fuel pricefuel price– Nuclear: $69 millionNuclear: $69 million

• Therefore, breakeven nuclear capital cost for 10 MW is $43 million - $112 million– (compare to Toshiba est. $125 million for (compare to Toshiba est. $125 million for

50 MW)50 MW)

Simple Extension II: Donlin Simple Extension II: Donlin CreekCreek

• Load:– 50+ MW at all times50+ MW at all times– 438,300 MWh per yr (!) 438,300 MWh per yr (!)

• Nuclear Labor:– 8 operators + 20 security8 operators + 20 security– 25% remote site wage premium25% remote site wage premium

• Misc O&M:– $3.5 million (= Toshiba 50 MW estimate)$3.5 million (= Toshiba 50 MW estimate)

• Diesel cost: $1.50 and flat

Results: DonlinResults: Donlin

Present value of busbar costs excluding nuclear capital

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

Diesel Nuclear

Bil

lio

ns Other

Fuel

Looking AheadLooking Ahead

• Economics of nuclear depend on:– Energy RequirementsEnergy Requirements– Load shape (flat is best!)Load shape (flat is best!)

• Economics of transmission:– Very poor if serving small placesVery poor if serving small places– Excellent if serving a large loadExcellent if serving a large load– Reliability concerns are real,Reliability concerns are real,– But, 75+% of total diesel cost is But, 75+% of total diesel cost is

FUEL…FUEL…

Looking Ahead…..Looking Ahead…..

• On-site fabrication required for off-river sites

• Waste management• Security / staffing• NRC process is just beginningNRC process is just beginning

Further InformationFurther Information

• Galena Electric Power: a Situational Analysis. available at

http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/Galena_power_final.pdf • Alaska Electric Power Statistics (with Alaska Energy Balance) 1960-

2001 by Scott Goldsmith, November 2003. http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/akelectricpowerfinal.pdf

• BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 2004. www.bp.com/worldenergy

• Hansen, James. Defusing the Global Time Bomb. Scientific American, February 2004. Pp. 68-77.

• Smil, Vaclav. 1994 Energy in World History. Westview.• Smil, Vaclav. 2003. Energy at the Crossroads. MIT Press.