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Nuclear Energy Prospects after
Fukushima: The Asian Experience
Seoul, 28 August 2012 Dr. Hooman Peimani
Principal Fellow & Head
Energy Security Division
Energy Studies Institute Contributed by: SU, Liying (ESI Energy Analyst)
Opinions expressed in this presentation are those of its presenter only. They do not reflect the opinions of the
Energy Studies Institute.
I. Introduction
A. Asia’s energy requirements and projections for 2035
Energy Mix in Asia Oceania (1990-2035)
Note: The statistics are calculated by adding up OECD Asia Oceania and Non-OECD Asia.
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p. 570-590.
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Energy Demand (Mtoe)
Shares (%)
1990 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2009 2035
Coal 835 2165 2729 2912 2969 3030 3101 47% 41%
Oil 646 1132 1320 1393 1485 1591 1687 25% 22%
Gas 137 437 605 735 829 940 1063 10% 14%
Nuclear 76 146 212 313 396 457 522 3% 7%
Hydro 35 84 120 147 174 191 201 2% 3%
Biomass
and waste 481 565 594 627 662 703 749 12% 10%
Other
renewables 11 44 88 126 173 229 300 1% 4%
Total 2221 4573 5668 6253 6688 7141 7623 100% 100%
I. Introduction
B. Domination of the Asian energy mix by fossil energy to
continue
C. Small share of non-fossil energy (renewables and nuclear)
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p. 570-590.
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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia
A. Five decades of nuclear energy starting in Japan
Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Japan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf79.html
This Table continues over the next two pages
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Reactor Type Net capacity Utility Commercial
Operation
Fukushima I-5 BWR 760 MWe TEPCO April 1978
Fukushima I-6 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO October 1979
Fukushima II-1 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO April 1982
Fukushima II-2 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO February 1984
Fukushima II-3 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO June 1985
Fukushima II-4 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO August 1987
Genkai-1 PWR 529 MWe Kyushu October 1975
Genkai-2 PWR 529 MWe Kyushu March 1981
Genkai-3 PWR 1127 MWe Kyushu March 1994
Genkai-4 PWR 1127 MWe Kyushu July 1997
Hamaoka-3 BWR 1056 MWe Chubu August 1987
Hamaoka-4 BWR 1092 MWe Chubu September 1993
Hamaoka-5 ABWR 1325 MWe Chubu January 2005
Higashidori-1
Tohoku BWR 1067 MWe Tohoku December 2005
Ikata-1 PWR 538 MWe Shikoku September 1977
Ikata-2 PWR 538 MWe Shikoku March 1982
Ikata-3 PWR 846 MWe Shikoku December 1994
II. Nuclear Energy in Asia
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Reactor Type Net Capacity Utility Commercial
Operation
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-1 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO September 1985
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-2 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO September 1990
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-3 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO August 1993
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-4 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO August 1994
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-5 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO April 1990
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-6 ABWR 1315 MWe TEPCO November 1996
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-7 ABWR 1315 MWe TEPCO July 1997
Mihama-1 PWR 320 MWe Kansai November 1970
Mihama-2 PWR 470 MWe Kansai July 1972
Mihama-3 PWR 780 MWe Kansai December 1976
Ohi-1 PWR 1120 MWe Kansai March 1979
Ohi-2 PWR 1120 MWe Kansai December 1979
Ohi-3 PWR 1127 MWe Kansai December 1991
Ohi-4 PWR 1127 MWe Kansai February 1993
Onagawa-1 BWR 498 MWe Tohoku June 1984
Onagawa-2 BWR 796 MWe Tohoku July 1995
Onagawa-3 BWR 796 MWe Tohoku January 2002
II. Nuclear Energy in Asia
Reactor Type Net Capacity Utility Commercial
Operation
Sendai-1 PWR 846 MWe Kyushu July 1984
Sendai-2 PWR 846 MWe Kyushu November 1985
Shika-1 BWR 505 MWe Hokuriku July 1993
Shika-2 BWR 1304 MWe Hokuriku March 2006
Shimane-1 BWR 439 MWe Chugoku March 1974
Shimane-2 BWR 791 MWe Chugoku February 1989
Takahama-1 PWR 780 MWe Kansai November 1974
Takahama-2 PWR 780 MWe Kansai November 1975
Takahama-3 PWR 830 MWe Kansai January 1985
Takahama-4 PWR 830 MWe Kansai June 1985
Tokai-2 BWR 1060 MWe JAPC November 1978
Tomari-1 PWR 550 MWe Hokkaido June 1989
Tomari-2 PWR 550 MWe Hokkaido April 1991
Tomari-3 PWR 866 MWe Hokkaido December 2009
Tsuruga-1 BWR 341 MWe JAPC March 1970
Tsuruga-2 PWR 1110 MWe JAPC February 1987
Total: 50 reactors
44,396 MWe
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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia
B. Expansion of nuclear energy to China, South Korea and
Taiwan Operating Nuclear Reactors in China
Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in China. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html
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Units Province Net capacity
(each) Type Operator
Commercial
operation
Daya Bay 1&2 Guangdong 944 MWe PWR (French
M310)
CGNPC 1994
Qinshan Phase I Zhejiang 279 MWe PWR (CNP-300) CNNC April 1994
Qinshan Phase II,
1-4
Zhejiang 610 MWe PWR (CNP-600) CNNC 2002, 2004,
2010, 2012
Qinshan Phase
III, 1&2
Zhejiang 665 MWe PHWR (Candu 6) CNNC 2002, 2003
Ling Ao Phase I,
1&2
Guangdong 935 MWe PWR (French
M310)
CGNPC 2002, 2003
Tianwan 1&2 Jiangsu 1000 MWe PWR (VVER-
1000)
CNNC 2007, 2007
Ling Ao Phase II,
1&2
Guangdong 1037 MWe PWR (CPR-1000) CGNPC Sept 2010, Aug
2011
Total: 15 11,881 MWe
Power Reactors Operating in South Korea
Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in South Korea. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf81.html
II. Nuclear Energy in Asia
Reactor Type Net capacity Commercial Operation Planned Close
Kori 1 PWR - Westinghouse 576 MWe 4/78 2017
Kori 2 PWR - Westinghouse 637 MWe 7/83
Wolsong 1 PHWR - Candu 6 666 MWe 4/83 2036
Kori 3 PWR - Westinghouse 1007 MWe 9/85
Kori 4 PWR - Westinghouse 1007 MWe 4/86
Yonggwang 1 PWR - Westinghouse 953 MWe 8/86
Yonggwang 2 PWR - Westinghouse 947 MWe 6/87
Ulchin 1 PWR - Framatome 945 MWe 9/88
Ulchin 2 PWR - Framatome 942 MWe 9/89
Yonggwang 3 PWR (Syst 80) 997 MWe 12/95
Yonggwang 4 PWR (Syst 80) 994 MWe 3/96
Wolsong 2 PHWR - Candu 710 MWe 7/97
Wolsong 3 PHWR - Candu 707 MWe 7/98
Wolsong 4 PHWR - Candu 708 MWe 10/99
Ulchin 3 OPR-1000 994 MWe 8/98
Ulchin 4 OPR-1000 998 MWe 12/99
Yonggwang 5 OPR-1000 988 MWe 5/02
Yonggwang 6 OPR-1000 996 MWe 12/02
Ulchin 5 OPR-1000 1001 MWe 7/04
Ulchin 6 OPR-1000 1001 MWe 4/05
Shin Kori 1 OPR-1000 1001 MWe 2/11
Shin Kori 2 OPR-1000 1001 MWe 7/12
Shin Wolsong 1 OPR-1000 1001 MWe 7/12
Total: 23 20,787 MWe
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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia
Operating Taiwan Nuclear Power Reactors
* Dates are for start of commercial operation
Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Taiwan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf115_taiwan.html
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Units type MWe gross MWe net Start up* Licenced to
Chinshan 1 BWR 636 604 1978 2018
Chinshan 2 BWR 636 604 1979 2019
Kuosheng 1 BWR
985 948 1981 2021
Kuosheng 2 BWR 985 948 1983 2023
Maanshan 1 PWR
951 900 1984 2024
Maanshan 2 PWR 951 923 1985 2025
Total (6)
4927 MWe net
II. Nuclear Energy in Asia
C. Asia-Pacific as the main arena for nuclear energy expansion
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p. 544-615
D. Slower growth of nuclear energy in other parts of Asia
(excluding Eurasia)
West Asia: Iran is the only country, which has built a nuclear reactor for
electricity generation (Bushehr: 1000MW went online in 2011)
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
North America
Europe/Eurasia
Asia Oceania
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Nuclear Energy Demand (Mtoe), 1990-2035
Note: statistics are calculated by adding up OECD Countries and Non-OECD Countries in each region.
III. Demystification of the incident at the
Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant 1 (FNPP 1)
A. The incident was triggered by a record earthquake (9 degrees) followed by a major
tsunami (15 meters high)
1.FNPP 1 tolerated the earthquake/tsunami
2.The tsunami damaged its cooling system leading to the core meltdown of its operating
reactors
3.Limited release of radiation estimated at 10% of that of Chernobyl
4.No death or major injury caused by radiation
5.Human errors as the main cause: Vulnerability of the FNPP 1’s cooling systems to
tsunamis due to miscalculations
6.Same incidents are avoidable by placing nuclear reactors’ cooling systems at a level
immune to the worst-case tsunamis.
Proof: Japan’s nuclear power plants in the tsunami/earthquake-affected region (excluding
FNPP 1) tolerated the natural disasters without experiencing any problem (e.g., Fukushima
Nuclear Power Plant 2).
The FNPP 1 incident does not prove the unsafe nature of nuclear
energy.
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III. Demystification of the incident at the
Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant 1 (FNPP 1)
B. Good safety record of nuclear energy: only three major accidents
leading to the release of radiation since the nuclear energy era
began •Three Mile Island (1979): no harm to humans and no major damage to the environment
•Chernobyl (1986): human casualties and damages to the environment
•Fukushima (2011): no harm to humans and no major damage to the environment
Source: Three Mile Island, 28 March 1979; Chernobyl Disaster, 26 April 1986; Fukushima Disaster, 11 March 2011.
http://www.smashinglists.com/worst-nuclear-accidents-disasters-in-history/
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IV. The Post-Fukushima era
A. Negative view among the population at large about nuclear
energy
Main reasons:
–Lack of knowledge about nuclear energy
–Exaggerated reporting on the incident
Source: 1. Anti-nuclear protest in Japan on Fukushima’s first anniversary. http://www.citizenside.com/en/photos-videos/20101/environment.html
2. Anti-nuclear rallies in Europe a year after Fukushima. http://www.euronews.com/2012/03/11/anti-nuclear-rallies-in-europe-a-year-after-fukushima
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IV. The Post-Fukushima era
B. No major change in the global trends for nuclear
energy expansion
1. Those uncommitted to nuclear energy in the pre-
Fukushima era and/or have alternatives have declared phasing
out their nuclear sector or not opting for one a.Germany and Switzerland: It is uncertain if they will actually phase out their
nuclear reactors at the end of their life span
b.Italy will continue importing electricity from France’s nuclear reactors
2. Those committed in the pre-Fukushima era for certain
reasons have remained so (e.g., Brazil, France and Russia)
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IV. The Post-Fukushima era
C. The Fukushima nuclear incident’s impact on Asia
– Two distinct reactions in Japan and the rest of the
continent
• Japan’s reaction: Exceptional to the continental reaction as it
shut down all its nuclear reactors by June 2012 to conduct
stress tests out of safety concerns and public pressure
• Reaction in other parts of Asia: Emphasis on safety issues,
but no major change in their nuclear energy policy
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V. Continued nuclear energy program in
Asia
A. The Asia-Pacific region
1. Major players: China, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Pakistan have
remained the main arena for the global and Asian nuclear energy
expansion
Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in China. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html This Table continues over the next two pages
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Plant Province MWe gross Reactor
model Project control Construction start Operation
Hongyanhe units 1-4 Liaoning 4x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC, with CPI 8/07, 4/08, 3/09, 8/09 10/12, 2013, 2014
Ningde units 1-4 Fujian 4x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC, with Datang 2/08, 11/08, 1/10, 9/10 12/12, 2013, 2014, 2015
Fuqing units 1&2 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNNC 11/08, 6/09 11/13, 9/14
Yangjiang units 1-4 Guangdong 4x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 12/08, 8/09, 11/10, 3/11* 8/13, 2014, 2015, 2016
Fangjiashan units 1&2 Zhejiang 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNNC 12/08, 7/09 12/13, 10/14
Sanmen units 1&2 Zhejiang 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC 3/09, 12/09 11/13, 9/14
Haiyang units 1&2 Shandong 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 9/09, 6/10 5/14, 3/15
Taishan units 1&2 Guangdong 2x1770 EPR CGNPC 10/09, 4/10 10/13, 11/14
Hongyanhe units 5&6 Liaoning 2x1080 ACPR-1000 CGNPC, with CPI 2013? 2015
Shandong Shidaowan Shandong 210 HTR-PM Huaneng mid 2011 2015
Nuclear Reactors under Construction and
Planned, China
V. Continued nuclear energy program in
Asia
Plant Province MWe gross Reactor model Project control Construction start Operation
Fangchenggang units 1&2 Guangxi 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 7/10, 2011 2015, 2016
Fuqing units 3&4 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNNC 7/10, 2011* 7/15, 5/16
Fuqing units 5&6 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000
or CNP1000 CNNC 2011, 2011* -
Changjiang units 1&2 Hainan 2x650 CNP-600 CNNC & Huaneng 4/10, 11/10 2014, 2015
Hongshiding (Rushan) units 1&2 Shandong 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNEC/CNNC Deferred from
2009? 2015
Yangjiang units 5&6 Guangdong 2x1080 ACPR-1000 CGNPC 2013* 2017
Ningde units 5&6 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC
Xudabao / Xudapu units 1&2 Liaoning 2x1250 AP1000 CPI, with Datang 9/11, ? delayed
Sanmen units 3&4 Zhejiang 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC
Haiyang units 3&4 Shandong 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 2010?
Sanming units 1&2 Fujian 2x880 BN-800 CNNC 2013 2019, 20
Zhangzhou units 1&2 Fujian 2x100 ACP100 CNNC & Guodian 2015
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V. Continued nuclear energy program in
Asia
Plant Province MWe gross Reactor model Project control Construction start Operation
Tianwan units 3&4 Jiangsu 2x1060 VVER-1000 CNNC ?, ?
Lianyungang units 1&2 Jiangsu 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC
Shanwei (Lufeng) units 1&2 Guangdong 2x1080 ACPR-1000 CGNPC late 2012?
Shidaowan units 1-4 Shandong 4x1250 AP1000 Huaneng 2013? ?
Inland units planned but deferred
Wuhu units 1&2 Anhui 2x1250 AP1000 CGNPC 2012 8/2016
Xianning (Dafan) units 1&2 Hubei 2x1250 AP1000 CGNPC 2011 or 2015 2015?
Taohuajiang units 1-4 Hunan 4x1250 AP1000 CNNC 2011
4/2015-2018?
Pengze units 1&2 Jiangxi 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 2011 or 2015 2015?
Xiaomoshan units 1&2 Hunan 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 2012
Longyou (Zhexi) units 1&2 Zhejiang 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC 2012
Yanjiashan/Wanan/Ji'an Jiangxi 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC 2012
Shaoguan units 1-4 Guangdong
(inland) 4x1250 AP1000 CGNPC 2013
Total: 81 90,750 MWe
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Wherever construction has started, the construction dates are marked in bold. Those reactors yet to be constructed are marked as 'planned' in the WNA reactor
table.
On1 December 2011, China had 26 reactors under construction (27,640 Mwe) and 51 reactors planned (57,480 Mwe ).
Fangjiashan is sometimes shown as a development of Qinshan Phase I.
* Approved, but construction delayed post-Fukushima
V. Continued nuclear energy program in
Asia
Reactor Type
MWe gross,
net,
each
Project control Construction
start
Commercial
operation due
Safeguards
status
Kudankulam 1 PWR (VVER) 1000, 950 NPCIL March 2002
3/2012 but
delayed
item-specific
Kudankulam 2 PWR (VVER) 1000, 950 NPCIL July 2002 6/2012 but
delayed item-specific
Kalpakkam
PFBR FBR 500, 470 Bhavini Oct 2004 2013 -
Kakrapar 3 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL Nov 2010 June 2015
Kakrapar 4 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL March 2011 Dec 2015
Rajasthan 7 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL July 2011 Dec 2016
Rajasthan 8 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL Sept 2011 Dec 2016
Total (7)
4890 MWe
net,
5300 MWe
gross
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India’s Nuclear Power Reactors under
Construction
Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in India. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf53.html
V. Continued nuclear energy program in
Asia
Reactor Type Gross capacity Start construction Commercial
operation
Shin Wolsong 2 OPR-1000 1050 MWe September 2008 1/2013
Shin Kori 3 APR-1400 1350 MWe October 2008 9/2013
Shin Kori 4 APR-1400 1350 MWe August 2009 9/2014
Shin Ulchin 1 APR-1400 1350 MWe July 2012 4/2017
Shin Ulchin 2 APR-1400 1350 MWe Sept 2013 4/2018
Shin Kori 5 APR-1400 1350 MWe 8/2014 12/2018
Shin Kori 6 APR-1400 1350 MWe 8/2015 12/2019
Shin Wolsong 3 APR-1400 1350 MWe 6/2020
Shin Wolsong 4 APR-1400 1350 MWe 6/2021
Total 9 12,250 MWe
(c 11,680 MWe net)
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South Korean Reactors under Construction
or Planned
Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in South Korea. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf81.html
V. Continued nuclear energy program in
Asia
type MWe net start-up commercial
operation
Lungmen 1 ABWR 1300 2012? 2014-15
Lungmen 2
ABWR 1300 2012? 2015
total (2) 2600
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Taiwan Nuclear Reactors under Construction
Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Taiwan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf115_taiwan.html
World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Pakistan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf108.html
Nuclear Power Reactors under Construction,
Planned and Proposed, Pakistan
Reactor Type MWe gross Construction
start
Commercial
operation
Chashma 3 PWR 340 May 2011 Dec 2016
Chashma 4 PWR 340 Dec 2011 Oct 2017
Chashma 5 PWR 1000?
Karachi 2 & 3 2 x 1000
Total 5 3680?
V. Continued nuclear energy program in
Asia
2. New comer - Vietnam: Agreement with Russia for two 1000
MW reactors (construction of the first reactor is set to start in
2014 for completion in 2018) and another agreement with Japan
for two similar reactors to come on line in 2024-25; talks with
South Korea for another reactor
Source: 1. The sketch of Vietnam’s first nuclear power in Ninh Thuan Province. VietnamNews.biz.
http://www.vietnamnews.biz/Nuclear-power-appraisal-council-to-be-set-up_180.html
2. Vietnam PM Dung receives Russian Deputy Foreign Minister A. Borodavkin. Both side discussed orientations and measures to
enhance bilateral cooperation to accelerate the implementation of strategic cooperation projects, especially the project on construction
of the first nuclear-power plant in Vietnam. 26 April 2011 http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/politics/7549/government-in-brief-26-4.html
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V. Continued nuclear energy program in
Asia
B. West Asia & Eurasia
1. Iran has continued its program: Constructing its
indigenously-designed 360MW light water
Darkhoveyn reactor; plans for constructing two
more reactors near the operating Bushehr Plant
(two third-generation PWR nuclear reactors -
1000 to 1600 MW each)
2. Turkey: Continued commitment to its 2010
agreement with Russia for its financing, building
and operating four 1200 MW rectors in Turkey
(Construction to start in mid 2013); two nuclear
agreements with China were signed in 2012 but
few concrete details were made available.
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Source: 1. Bushehr I and II Nuclear Power Plants, Iran.
http://www.power-technology.com/projects/bushehr-nuclear/bushehr-nuclear4.html
2. Two nuclear energy agreements were signed under the auspices of Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao in Beijing after their tete-a-tete
meeting and a meeting between their respective delegations at the Chinese National Assembly.
http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=88335
V. Continued nuclear energy program in
Asia
3. Armenia: continued use of its Soviet-built nuclear reactor (VER-440; net
capacity 376 MW)
-Approved in 2010 the construction of one unit (VVER1000MW; net
capacity: 1060 MW) to be built by Atomstroeyexport beginning in 2012 for
commissioning in 2019-2020
4. Kazakhstan: plan for a 600 MW nuclear power plant Source: The Metsamor nuclear plant at the base of Armenia’s towering symbol, Mount Ararat.
http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/environmental-issues/amernia-metsamor-nuclear-power-plant-hazard-to-world-14354523/
http://www.epress.am/en/2011/03/21/metsamor-nuclear-power-plant-would-withstand-japan-earthquake-expert.html
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V. Continued nuclear energy program in
Asia
C. Persian Gulf/Middle East
•UAE: Committed to its 2010 agreement with a South Korean
consortium for building four 1400 MW reactors: Construction
of Unit 1 started in July 2012 to be completed in 2017; other
units set to be operational in 2018 (unit 2), 2019 (Unit 3) and
2020 (units 4).
•Jordan: Plan to start building a 750-1200 MW reactor in
2013 to become operational by 2020 and a second one to go
online by 2025.
•Saudi Arabia: Plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors
by 2032 (17 GW of nuclear capacity)
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VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy
in the post-Fukushima era
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A. Reasons for Asia’s commitment in
the pre-Fukushima era
1. Energy security (energy mix
diversification)
2. Ending heavy reliance on imported
fuels
3. Financial: heavy and growing cost of
fuel imports
Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2011, pp. 40-41
VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy
in the post-Fukushima era
4. Political/security reasons: concerns about the vulnerability of the Asian
countries to political/military developments in their supplying regions
Source: 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring
2. An oil refinery in Libya burns during the rebels’ push towards Tripoli. Photograph: Sean Smith for the Guardian.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/02/next-war-libya-one-for-oil
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Current Results of Arab Spring
VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy
in the post-Fukushima era 5. Depletion of oil/gas/coal reserves in fossil-energy-rich countries
- According to BP, world proved oil, gas and coal reserves in 2010 were
sufficient to meet 46.2, 58.6 and 118 years of global production, respectively.
6. Environmental reason: decreasing CO2 emissions to mitigate global warming
Asian countries had strong reasons to justify their opting for nuclear
energy in the pre-Fukushima era
Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2011, pp. 44-45.
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VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy
in the post-Fukushima era
B. Reasons for Asia’s Commitment to Nuclear Energy in the Post-Fukushima
Era
1. Continued validity of the pre-Fukushima era’s reasons
2. Good safety record of nuclear energy since 1950s
- Only three major accidents
- Non-nuclear power generation has been more dangerous to
humans and the environment in the same period if their fuels’ production process is
taken into consideration
Coal as an example:
•Thousands of coal miners are killed every year due to mining accidents throughout the
world. In 2010, 2433 of miners were killed in China, for instance.
•CO2 accounts for the bulk of greenhouse gasses, the main cause of global warming.
Coal/peat burning for mainly power generation produced 12493 million tons of CO2 in
2009.
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VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy
in the post-Fukushima era
3. Developments since 2011 with a positive impact on nuclear energy expansion
a. Availability concern: whether enough oil and gas will be available
•Concern about the availability of Arab oil/gas supplies given the prevailing political instability (e.g., Egypt)
and, in cases, war (Libya and Yemen) in the Arab oil/gas exporters of mainly North Africa and a fear of
expansion of such situation to the major Arab oil/gas exporters of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Qatar, Oman and the UAE)
•Concern about the availability of African oil supplies owing to:
-- the independence of Sudan’s southern part containing about 90% of the country’s oil reserves,
which became official on 9 July 2011
China, India and Malaysia have been the main investors in Sudan’s oil industry in absence of the
major Western investors
--continued civil war and lawlessness in Nigeria
•Concern about the availability of Iranian oil/gas supplies due to the expanding UN-approved and unilateral
sanctions on Iran and a threat of war in the Persian Gulf
•Concern about a Western effort to physically control the major oil/gas exporting countries taking advantage
of the current situation (e.g., Libya)
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VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy
in the post-Fukushima era
b. Affordability concern: unavailability of oil, gas and coal at affordable
prices in a sustainable manner -- end of cheap fossil energy, particularly
oil
–Growing cost of fossil energy especially oil and gas
–Growing cost of coal in Asia due to the growing need for cheap energy,
depletion of oil/gas resources and Japan’s more use of coal in the post-
Fukushima era.
–High oil prices to last in the foreseeable future due to various reasons
particularly high demands and political uncertainties in many oil-producing
countries.
c. Environmental concern: Necessity of mitigating global warming
requiring a major reduction in oil, gas and coal consumption, which is not
happening at the needed scale despite impressive efforts in China, India,
Japan and South Korea
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VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy
in the post-Fukushima era
4. Absence of environmentally-clean alternative to nuclear energy for large-
scale electricity generation
–Wind, solar, wave and tidal energy are all necessary but unable to generate large-scale
electricity due to their technological underdevelopment
–Biomass generates CO2
–Biofuel: false promise for its production process is extremely pollutive and energy/water
intensive
Source: 1. Photo of the Year in Sweden award, a bio-fuel factory in Brazil making “environmentally-friendly fuel” for the European market
2. Forest fire in Indonesia, Beawiharta/Reuters, March 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/science/03obfires.html
3. Haze and dust particles enveloped the Singapore city skyline, September 2011, http://bernardoh.wordpress.com/2011/09/10/welcome-to-the-2011-
singapore-haze-season/
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VII. Japan’s eventual rehabilitation of its
nuclear power sector
A. Importance of nuclear energy for Japan
1. Nuclear energy: accounting for 30% of its electricity generation before March
2011
2. Shortage of electricity due to the closure of all the Japanese nuclear power
reactors
Source: 1. Author’s creation based on Electricity/Heat in Japan in 2009, IEA. http://www.iea.org/stats/electricitydata.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=JP
2. Power outages in Tokyo area after Fukushima, http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20110314-268070.html
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VII. Japan’s eventual rehabilitation of its
nuclear power sector 3. Absence of environmentally-clean alternative to nuclear energy to generate large-scale electricity
4. Unsustainability of the current dependence on mainly fossil energy for electricity generation for financial,
security and environmental reasons
Sudden increase in oil, gas and coal imports to generate electricity
•Heavy financial burden
•Increasing vulnerability of Japan to political and military developments in its supplying region
•Growing CO2 emissions
5. Feasibility of safe operation of nuclear reactors
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/getujidb/index.htm#n
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VII. Japan’s eventual rehabilitation of its
nuclear power sector
B. Current situation and trends
- New Japanese Prime Minister (Yoshihiko Noda): Shift
towards rehabilitating the nuclear energy sector
-Resumption of operation of two reactors in July (No. 3 and
4 reactors at the Oi Nuclear power plant, west Japan)
- Japan will gradually re-operationalize its nuclear reactors
excluding those, which cannot be upgraded to withstand
tsunamis at an acceptable cost, and build new ones
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VIII. Nuclear energy as a necessity for
Asia
• Asia must further diversify its energy mix in a
sustainable manner to meet its growing energy
demand
• Nuclear energy is a necessity along with
environmentally-friendly renewables
• Evidence suggests that Asia will remain the main
scene for nuclear energy expansion despite the
Fukushima incident
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Thank you for paying attention!
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