Nuclear Economics 2nd Part - MIT OpenCourseWare · · 2017-12-29Cost UCC = As built unit capital...
Transcript of Nuclear Economics 2nd Part - MIT OpenCourseWare · · 2017-12-29Cost UCC = As built unit capital...
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NuclearEconomics2ndPart
Dr.E.E.Pilat
MITNSED
CANESCenterforAdvancedNuclearEnergySystems
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FuelCostRatevsBurnup
• Followingslidesshowfuelcostmillrateanditscomponentsvsburnup
• Unitcostsarelowbytoday’svalues
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1.5 year3.0 region
10 20 30 40 50 60 700
1
2
3
4
5
6
Discharge burnup GWD/MTU
Fuel
cos
t mill
s/K
WH
Base CaseTails: 0.30, U: $15, SWU: $75, FAB: $200/kg, Carry 0.10, DOE: 1.0 mills
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1.5 year3.0 region
10 20 30 40 50 60 700
1
2
3
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Discharge burnup GWD/MTU
Fuel
cos
t mill
s/K
WH
Direct Only - No CarryingTails: 0.30, U: $15, SWU: $75, FAB: $200/kg, Carry 0.00, DOE: 1.0 mills
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1.5 year3.0 region
10 20 30 40 50 60 700
1
2
3
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Discharge burnup GWD/MTU
Fuel
cos
t mill
s/K
WH
Direct U308 OnlyTails: 0.30, U: $15, SWU: $0, FAB: $0/kg, Carry 0.00, DOE: 0.0 mills
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
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1.5 year3.0 region
10 20 30 40 50 60 700
1
2
3
4
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Discharge burnup GWD/MTU
Fuel
cos
t mill
s/K
WH
Total Depletion (U308+Conv+SWU+INT)Tails: 0.30, U: $15, SWU: $75, FAB: $0/kg, Carry 0.10, DOE: 0.0 mills
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3.0 region
10 20 30 40 50 60 700
1
2
3
4
5
6
Discharge burnup GWD/MTU
Fuel
cos
t mill
s/K
WH
Direct FABTails: 0.30, U: $0, SWU: $0, FAB: $200/kg, Carry 0.00, DOE: 0.0 mills
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
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1.5 year2.0 year
10 20 30 40 50 60 700
1
2
3
4
5
6
Discharge burnup GWD/MTU
Fuel
cos
t mill
s/K
WH
Tails: 0.30, U: $15, SWU: $75, FAB: $200/kg, Carry 0.10, DOE: 1.0 mills1.5 Year and 2.0 Year
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10 20 30 40 50 60 701
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Discharge burnup GWD/MTU
Fuel
cos
t mill
s/K
WH
Tails: 0.30, U: $25, SWU: $100, FAB: $900/kg, Carry 0.10, DOE: 0.0 millsDisposal at $700/KGU (EUROPE)
1.5 year3.0 region
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2006FuelCostsbyPlant
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FuelContractsInclude
• Productpurchase
• Termsandconditions
• Options
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Terms&Conditions
• Durationofcontract– Calendartimeorreactorcycles
• Amountstobepurchased– Absoluteor%ofrequirements
• Notificationterms
• Deliveryterms– What,where,when,whatconditionit’sin
• Warranty
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Terms&Conditions2
• Paymentterms– Baseprice
– Escalationterms
– Paymentdates• Calendarorrelative
• Whohastitle,insurance
• Possibilityofsuspensionofwork
• Possibilityofcancellation
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Options
• Changeamount,deliverydate,enrichmentwithsomeleadtime
• Changefuelmechanicaldesign
• Changeburnablepoison
• Havefabvendorperformcoredesignwork
• Failedfueltesting
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TwoTypesofPricing
• Basepriceescalated– Escalationindexcanbeanything(gnpdeflator,SICindex,privatelypublishedindicesforanything)
• Marketbased– Somepercentagemoreorlessthanpublishedmarketpriceofthisproduct
• Bothkindscanincludefloorsandceilings
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PaymentstoUSHLWFundAverage~$280/kgU
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HLWPaymentcont’d
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ThereisNoSingle“Price”forU
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$70.00
$60.00
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.002007 2008
Average price for uranium purchased by owners and operators of U.S. civilian nuclear power reactors by pricing mechanisms and delivery year, 2007-2008
Dol
lars
per
pou
nd U
2O2
equi
vale
nt
Contract-specified (Fixed and base-escalated) pricing Spot-market pricing Other pricing
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UtilityBalanceSheet(NetNuclearFuel~$85million/plant)
22.251Source:EEI2008Financial
Consolidated Balance SheetU.S. Shareholder-Owned Electric Utilities
($ Millions) 12/31/2008 12/31/2007
PP&E in service, grossAccumulated depreciation
Net property in serviceConstruction work in progressNet nuclear fuelOther property
Net property & equipment
Cash & cash equivalentsAccounts receivable
Other current assetsTotal current assets
Total investmentsOther assets
Inventories
927,412320,294
868,929304,696
607,118 564,23358,9468,8021,085
675,951
19,39844,23226,86559,500
149,995
62,671216,558
47,4677,3362,465
621,502
14,15144,09123,49756,281
138,020
69,057200,180
1,028,7581,105,175Total Assets
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CapitalCost
UCC= Asbuiltunitcapitalcost($perKWe)
FCR= Fixedchargerate
L= Lifetimecapacityfactor
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!
CC "100 FCR( ) UCC( )
8766L
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CapitalCost2
• Startwithan“overnight”costatprojectstart
• Asbuiltcostincludesescalationfromprojectstarttotimeofpaymentforcomponent
• Asbuiltcostincludesinterestduringconstruction(AFUDC)fromtimeofpaymenttostartofoperation
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CapitalCost3
• FCR~x/[1–(1+x)‐n]
• x~(1–t)brb+(1‐b)rs=costofmoney
• t=incometaxrate
• b=bondfraction
• rb=returnonbonds
• rs=returnonstock
• n=booklifeofplant
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CapitalCost4
• Easiertousespreadsheet
• Todayrs~10.5%
• Todayrbvariesfrom5to15%
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HowIsNukeIntegratedIntoGrid?
• Powercost=capital+production
• Production=O&M+Fuel
• Systemoperatorsdispatchplantsaccordingtocost
• Nukeshavehighcapitalcostssoliketorunathighcapacityfactor
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ProductionCostsFuelissmallfractionofnuclear
22.251Source:EEI2008FinancialReview
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Cost of fuelNon-fuel O&M
Coa
lN
atur
al G
asN
ucle
ar Oil
Hyd
ro
Coa
lN
atur
al G
asN
ucle
ar Oil
Hyd
ro
Coa
lN
atur
al G
asN
ucle
ar Oil
Hyd
ro
Coa
lN
atur
al G
asN
ucle
ar Oil
Hyd
ro
Coa
lN
atur
al G
asN
ucle
ar Oil
Hyd
ro
Coa
lN
atur
al G
asN
ucle
ar Oil
Hyd
ro
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Average Cost to Produce Electricity 2003-2008U.S. Electric Utility and Non-Utility
$/MWh
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“Load‐Duration”CurvesforNewEng.(50%oftime,load>16,000MW)
22.251Source:ISO‐NE2009Q1MarketRpt
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,0000% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percent of Hours
Syst
em lo
ad (M
W)
New England Hourly Load Curves 2006-2009 Q1
2007
2008
2009
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“Price‐Duration”CurvesforNewEng.50%oftime,price>$40/MWhin2009
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$275
$250
$225
$200
$175
$150
$125
$100
$75
$50
$25
$00% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percent of Hours
$/M
WNew England Hourly RT System Price Duration Curves
2005-2009, Q1 Prices < $275
20072008
2009
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Source: ISO-NE 2009Q1 Market Rpt
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LocalMarginalPricesinNewEng.
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HQ HG
Date
Real-Time LMPs for Hub and External NodesSeptember 21-27, 2009
HQ VII
NB
NY - 1385
Hub
NY N-AC
NY-CSC
21 Se
p 09
22 Se
p 09
23 Se
p 09
24 Se
p 09
25 Se
p 09
26 Se
p 09
27 Se
p 09
$/M
Wh
$150
$100
$50
$0
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NewEnglandGridInfo
• NewEnglandloadflowsandmarginalcosts
DailyNewEnglandloads:http://www.cvx.com/java/NELoadGraph.htm
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22.251 Systems Analysis of the Nuclear Fuel CycleFall 2009
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