NTIA Broadband Mapping Discussion Guide June 19, 2009 Sand Cherry Associates © 2009 Proprietary...

NTIA Broadband Mapping Discussion Guide

June 19, 2009

Sand Cherry Associates © 2009Proprietary with All Rights Reserved

Sand Cherry Associates © 2009Proprietary with All Rights Reserved 2

BaselineNational

Broadband Mapping

Team

BaselineNational

Broadband Mapping

Team

Background:

Broadband business consultantsBroadband serviceability expertiseEconometrics research

Primary Role:

Program management

Market pricing and penetration analysis; economic impact analysis

Background:

Broadband business consultantsBroadband serviceability expertiseEconometrics research

Primary Role:

Program management

Market pricing and penetration analysis; economic impact analysis

Sand Cherry Associates, MediaBiz and American Roamer have partnered to deliver efficient and accurate baseline broadband mapping on a national level.

Baseline Mapping Team

Background:

Broadband industry information providers

Primary Role:

Telecom/broadband data supply and analysis

Coverage modeling

Background:

Broadband industry information providers

Primary Role:

Telecom/broadband data supply and analysis

Coverage modeling

Firms Partnering to Develop Baseline National Broadband Map

Background: Broadband industry information providers

Primary Role:Mapping platform adaptationWireless coverage information

Background: Broadband industry information providers

Primary Role:Mapping platform adaptationWireless coverage information


2009 American

Recovery and Reinvestment

Act(ARRA)

2009 American

Recovery and Reinvestment

Act(ARRA)

Key ElementsMajor Objectives

• Affordable, Available Broadband

• Meaningful Impact on jobs and GDP

• Rapid Execution

• Measurable results

• Key sectors targeted

–Education–Health care–Public Safety–Homeland Security

• Affordable, Available Broadband

• Meaningful Impact on jobs and GDP

• Rapid Execution

• Measurable results

• Key sectors targeted

–Education–Health care–Public Safety–Homeland Security

The 2009 ARRA provides funds for investing in broadband infrastructure to achieve measurable availability and affordability, while stimulating economic recovery.

Background Situation

• Stimulus funds for broadband expansion and education

• Joint NTIA, RUS-USDA, FCC governance of process

• Stimulus grant period starting 4Q09 ending Sep. 2010

• Broadband mapping to be completed by 2011

• Stimulus funds for broadband expansion and education

• Joint NTIA, RUS-USDA, FCC governance of process

• Stimulus grant period starting 4Q09 ending Sep. 2010

• Broadband mapping to be completed by 2011

The mapping element provides the primary tool for measuring the impact of proposed initiatives and their results.

2009 ARRA Objectives and Elements


Long Term Broadband Mapping

4

Baseline Mapping Need

The timing of the grants and the longer term broadband mapping efforts present an urgent, essential need for a quick and accurate baseline mapping initiative in the next few months.

2009 2010 2011

3Q* 4Q 1H* 2H 1H 2H

• Provides a baseline snapshot of current broadband availability and affordability

• Helps determine where infrastructure and education grants should be awarded

• Assists in developing overall broadband policy plans due February 2010

• Helps refine data requirements and processes for longer term broadband mapping

• Provides a reference point for assessing stimulus project economic impact including jobs and GDP effects.

Baseline Mapping Rationale

Proposed Baseline Mapping Initiative

Grant Awards

Calendar Year

* Q = Quarter ; H = Half


Perspectives on Broadband Mapping

The overall goal of the broadband stimulus initiative is to maximize broadband universality and to achieve economic benefits in terms of both economic development and jobs.

• Both the “supply” of broadband facilities and the “demand” for broadband are, accordingly, critical for maximizing these benefits.

• Some current and planned broadband mapping approaches have focused almost exclusively on the “strict supply side”—emphasizing the location of facilites--underemphasizing the “demand side (i.e. real availability as measured by penetration and whether broadband services are affordable).

• From this perspective, both AVAILABILITY and AFFORDABILITY are essential

Many existing providers have emphasized their deployment of broadband services where it is viewed as commercially viable

However, given the goals of the stimulus package a longer-term view is needed that may entail stimulus monies targeted at initiatives that may not meet commercial viability thresholds

Our approach emphasizes a judicious look at the need for broadband primarily from the user side, tempered by service coverage by providers


Key Principles for Broadband Mapping Activities

• Mapping of broadband resources needs to be carried out by an independent third party -- with access to unique data that can provide an accurate view of the marketplace. The proposed team is such an independent third party with unique access to the needed data.

• Broadband resources must include both wired and wireless resources

• To the extent possible, broadband resources must include available data from multiple public and private sources and include data made available by providers

• Data from providers and public sources must be verified through independent means including surveys and other third-party measurements

• The data needs to encompass service availability, speed levels, pricing or spending and broadband penetration

• Data needs to be cast at small geographic level -- the census block group (CBG) would be ideal for two reasons:

the Census Bureau reports demographic statistics at this level

CBGs do not change with population growth—other geographies may change (such as zip codes which grow and evolve over time)

• Lastly, any baseline mapping should be set up to be easily compatible with whatever longer-term mapping solution is put in place

Broadband mapping, whether baseline or longer term, needs to unimpeachable and needs to include multiple sources of data to assure accuracy of the findings.

Key Principles


Baseline Broadband Mapping Requirements

We propose a baseline mapping initiative to capture key broadband availability and usage metrics, guided by a few design principles ensure a balance between speed and scope.

• Availability of Service

• Service penetration by Speed Tiers

• Price/income Index

• Customer Awareness/ Interest Index

• Number of Service Providers

• Broadband technologies used

• Documentation of economic differences between well-served and under-served/non-served areas

• Collect, assemble, analyze available industry coverage and service information supplemented by data modeling

• Use Census Block Group (CBG) as the primary unit of analysis--balancing effort and timeliness

• Include both wireline and wireless (3G and 4G) technologies

• Frame underserved areas as relationship between access price and income/awareness

• Use combination of facilities and user data

• Build a view of speed layers to explore effort to meet different speed goals

• Document wages, employment opportunities, and access to services in well-served and under-served areas

Robust view of un-served and under-served

areas:

Availability and Affordability

Proposed Base Measures Selected Design Principles

Baseline Mapping Design Principles and Proposed Measures


Baseline Broadband Mapping Process

Our team could complete a baseline broadband mapping initiative in four months, due to the unique combination of expertise and information access.

We can begin the effort as early as late June, delivering the baseline by October or November 2009.

Baseline Mapping Proposed Process and Timeline

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Calendar Year 2009

Data Collection

Data Analysis

Data Display

Proposed Schedule

Allowance for contingencies


Data Sources: Broadband Data Provider Coverage

The data obtained at the zip or zip+4 level will be analyzed and projected to the CBG level for availability, penetration, and affordability.

Baseline Coverage Data To Be Included

Operators representing over 90%+ total U.S. cable HHs, including all NCTA and ACA members

• Cable modem service availability at zip+4 level

• In place

Operators representing over 90% of US telephone based data service

• Advanced fiber services (e.g. FiOS and U-verse) at zip+4 level

• DSL service at zip+4 level

• Fiber: In place• DSL: Available, access

to data being finalized

All commercial mobile operators (Verizon, AT&T, Cellular South, etc.) plus reporting Wireless ISPs (Clearwire, Stelera, Xanadoo, etc.)

• Multiple service levels including 3G and 4G broadband. Detail varies by operator but some below 250 meters

• In place

HughesNet and WildBlue (national footprint)

• Distribution of subscriber bases TBD

• In place• Negotiations underwa

y for initial release of distribution data by county

CABLE

TELCO

WIRELESS

SATELLITE

PROVIDERS COVERED LEVEL OF DETAIL STATUS

Our team either has in place, or can quickly obtain, broadband coverage data addressing all sources of broadband service.


Data Analysis: Availability and Impact

1004/18/23

• Refine key definitions in terms of critical service and demographic factors

Unserved area Underserved area by key driver

(e.g., affordability, speed)

• Use mapping tools and validated data to identify unserved areas

• Develop a state-wide demographic model of demand for broadband using logit techniques

• Apply the model at lower levels of geography, (e.g. county, zip code, CBG)

• Use relative estimates of penetration to identify underserved areas

• Estimate income distribution impact: broadband spending relative to penetration (affordability analysis)

• Refine key definitions in terms of critical service and demographic factors

Unserved area Underserved area by key driver

(e.g., affordability, speed)

• Use mapping tools and validated data to identify unserved areas

• Develop a state-wide demographic model of demand for broadband using logit techniques

• Apply the model at lower levels of geography, (e.g. county, zip code, CBG)

• Use relative estimates of penetration to identify underserved areas

• Estimate income distribution impact: broadband spending relative to penetration (affordability analysis)

• Document wages, employment opportunities and access to services well-served and underserved areas for comparison

• Estimate the likely projected effects of broadband availability on economic conditions

• Measure actual changes in economic conditions over time that correspond to the timing and level of broadband investments

• Enumerate non-commercial applications developed from stimulus, such as education, health, public safety, homeland security, and others

• Document wages, employment opportunities and access to services well-served and underserved areas for comparison

• Estimate the likely projected effects of broadband availability on economic conditions

• Measure actual changes in economic conditions over time that correspond to the timing and level of broadband investments

• Enumerate non-commercial applications developed from stimulus, such as education, health, public safety, homeland security, and others

Micro-Geography Demand Analysis Stimulus Impact Analysis

After scrubbing the information for accuracy, we will conduct two basic analyses to obtain the key mapping variables at varying geographic levels.


Data Display: Mapping Demonstration

We have a few sample maps to show you.


Summary

1204/18/23

Industry and Mapping Experienced Team Strong Capabilities

Access to wide range of data sources

Detailed demand and economic impact modelling

Robust, Flexible Mapping Platform and Tools

Deep understanding of broadband issues

Rapid Delivery of Comprehensive

Broadband Baseline


Next Steps

• Present baseline mapping proposal to FCC and RUS/USDA staff

• Confirm requirements for baseline mapping outputs

• Review detailed proposal

• Develop governance and funding approach

• Approve comprehensive baseline national broadband mapping proposal promptly


Appendix


Sand Cherry: Our Capabilities and Value Proposition

• The premier market strategy and business operations consultancy serving the broadband industry in North America and Europe

• Deep experience through work with the top broadband providers in North America and Europe

• Cable, telco, and wireless consultancy of choice for industry-wide and national initiatives involving direct coordination and program management involving a wide range of companies, multiple vendors and consulting firms, and government agencies

• Experienced industry and consultant team strategically located throughout the US and near key company headquarters

• Experience working with federal and state government agencies, industry associations, and company executives

• Specific experience in:

Performing market assessments and defining broadband development and roll-out strategies for both wireline and wireless players

Guiding the development and use of broadband serviceability and mapping tools for a number of clients (both specific providers and industry efforts)

Performing cost-benefit analyses and business cases

• No particular agenda and no vested interest in any particular outcome or provider

We are broadband (wireline and wireless) industry experts who know the space from both a business and public policy/regulatory perspective.

Sand Cherry Overview


American Roamer Overview

1604/18/23

• Established in 1988, and headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, American Roamer offers products and services to established and emerging players in telecommunications by custom producing accurate and informative coverage maps as well as a broad array of solutions. Our clients range from Fortune 500 companies to small rural operators.

American Roamer is the independent trusted intermediary for carriers to share data with their roaming partners. We maintain the largest repository of wireless coverage patterns in the world. In addition, we research and maintain the technical data utilized by the operators to facilitate roaming between one another.

We offer a variety of industry leading products and services, including the following:

Custom Coverage Maps for Wireless Service Providers CellMaps™ — Web-Based Interactive Mapping Service CoverageRight™ — GIS Data Sets of North American Coverage Patterns MarketRight™ — GIS Data Sets of North American License Areas WISARD™ — Wireless Industry Search And Retrieve Database (Web application) Custom Technical Data and Support Solutions Tailored Wireless Industry Analysis


MediaBiz Overview

1704/18/23

MediaBiz is a well-established, customer-focused boutique consulting, research and publishing firm covering the multiplatform worlds of communications, entertainment and information.

•Founded in 1991 – Principals with 40+ Years Experience

•First To Track and Report Increasingly Complex Multichannel Video and Broadband Competition

Media Census | The BRIDGE Suite | SkyREPORT | ECTRs

•Headed by Cable TV Hall of Fame’r Paul Maxwell

Headquartered in Denver, Colorado

Offices in New York, New Jersey, Washington, DC and California

Clients include All Major Industry Players

Only Federally-approved franchise mapping source

•Data Tracking Beyond Guesstimating: Focus on Quality Checking Using Real, On-the-Ground Service-Based Data

NTIA Broadband Mapping Discussion Guide June 19, 2009 Sand Cherry Associates © 2009 Proprietary...

Documents

Transcript of NTIA Broadband Mapping Discussion Guide June 19, 2009 Sand Cherry Associates © 2009 Proprietary...