NSW Energy Efficiency Programs 2012 Evaluation Report · NSW Energy Efficiency Programs 2012...
Transcript of NSW Energy Efficiency Programs 2012 Evaluation Report · NSW Energy Efficiency Programs 2012...
NSWEnergyEfficiencyPrograms
2012EvaluationReport
FinalReportto
OfficeofEnvironmentandHeritage,
NSWDepartmentofPremierandCabinet
August2012IncludesOEHresponsesatJune2013
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
ARTDPtyLtdABN75003701764Tel0293739900Fax0293739998
Level4,352KentStSydneyPOBox1167QueenVictoriaBuildingNSW1230Australia
ii
©2014StateofNSWandOfficeofEnvironmentandHeritage
TheStateofNSWandOfficeofEnvironmentandHeritagearepleasedtoallowthismaterialtobereproducedinwholeorinpartforeducationalandnon‐commercialuse,providedthemeaningisunchangedanditssource,publisherandauthorshipareacknowledged.
PreparedbyARTDConsultantsfortheOfficeofEnvironmentandHeritage.
DisclaimerThisreporthasbeencompiledingoodfaith,exercisingallduecareandattention.Norepresentationismadeabouttheaccuracy,completenessorsuitabilityoftheinformationinthispublicationforanyparticularpurpose.OEHshallnotbeliableforanydamagewhichmayoccurtoanypersonororganisationtakingactionornotonthebasisofthispublication.Readersshouldseekappropriateadvicewhenapplyingtheinformationtotheirspecificneeds.
Publishedby:OfficeofEnvironmentandHeritage59GoulburnStreet,SydneyNSW2000POBoxA290,SydneySouthNSW1232Phone:(02)99955000(switchboard)Phone:131555(environmentinformationandpublicationsrequests)Phone:1300361967(nationalparks,generalenvironmentalenquiries,andpublicationsrequests)Fax:(02)99955999TTYusers:phone133677,thenaskfor131555Speakandlistenusers:phone1300555727,thenaskfor131555Email:[email protected]:www.environment.nsw.gov.auReportpollutionandenvironmentalincidentsEnvironmentLine:131555(NSWonly)orinfo@environment.nsw.gov.auSeealsowww.environment.nsw.gov.auISBN9781743593868OEH2014/0052February2014
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
ARTDPtyLtdABN75003701764Tel0293739900Fax0293739998
Level4,352KentStSydneyPOBox1167QueenVictoriaBuildingNSW1230Australia
iii
Acknowledgments
ThisworkwascompletedwiththeassistanceoftheDataandEvaluationTeamintheOfficeofEnvironmentandHeritage,DepartmentofPremierandCabinet.
WewouldalsoliketothanktheOEHmanagersandstafffortheirtimeandinsightsandtrustthattheirviewsareadequatelyrepresentedinthisreport.
ARTDConsultancyteam
ChrisMilneFlorentGomez‐Bonnet
OEHCommentBoxes
TheOfficeofEnvironmentandHeritage(OEH)hasprovidedcommentboxesattheendofeachsectioninthisreport.
Thesecommentboxes: providedetailsonthestatusofOEHenergyefficiencyprogramssincethecompletion
ofthereportuptoJune2012;and commentontheevaluationfindings.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
iv
Contents
Tablesandfigures...........................................................................................................................v
Acronymsandglossary...............................................................................................................vii
Executivesummary.....................................................................................................................viii Scopeoftheprograms......................................................................................................................viii The2012evaluation.........................................................................................................................viii Overallfinding........................................................................................................................................ix Energysavingsarebeingachieved.................................................................................................x Implementationhasbeeneffective............................................................................................xiii
1. Theprogramsandtheevaluation................................................................................16 1.1 Theprogramsinscope..........................................................................................................16 1.2 Directenergysavingprogramsarethemajorcomponent....................................17 1.3 ThepolicycontextforenergyefficiencyinNSW.......................................................18 1.4 Programlogic............................................................................................................................19 1.5 Evaluationoftheenergyefficiencyprograms.............................................................21
2. Overalloutcomesandachievements..........................................................................23 2.1 Programoutcomes..................................................................................................................23 2.2 Achievementsandissueswithimplementation.........................................................30
3. Progressofindividualprograms..................................................................................35 3.1 HomePowerSavingsProgram(HPSP)..........................................................................35 3.2 EnergyEfficiencyforSmallBusinessProgram(EESBP)........................................39 3.3 EnergySaverProgram(ESP)..............................................................................................44 3.4 EnergyefficiencycomponentofNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy
(EEGSP)........................................................................................................................................48 3.5 EnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgram(EETP)...............................................................56 3.6 EnergyEfficiencyCommunityAwarenessProgram(EECAP)..............................61 3.7 DataandEvaluationProgram(DEP)...............................................................................66
4. Cross‐programcoordinationandstrategy‐widegovernance............................73 4.1 Theinitialdesignhadlimitedscopeforintegration................................................73 4.2 Organisationalsiloswereabarriertointegration....................................................74 4.3 Coordinationwouldhavebeenimprovedbymorestructured
opportunities.............................................................................................................................75 4.4 Managersseekmoreoverarchinggovernance...........................................................76
Appendix1. Evaluationreportsusedforthesynthesis............................................77
Appendix2. Estimatesofactualenergysavings‐preliminaryresults................79
Appendix3. Keyreferences................................................................................................86
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
v
Tablesandfigures
Table1‐1. Theprogramsbyapproach,sector,completionandallocatedOEHexpenditure.......16
Table1‐2. Programsgroupedbyapproachesandgovernance................................................................17
Table2‐1. Energyefficiencyprograms–estimatedannualsavingsfromactivitiesimplementedtoJune2012.................................................................................................................26
Table2‐2. Cost‐effectivenessforthedirectenergysavingsprograms..................................................29
Table3‐1. HomePowerSavingsProgram–estimatedannualsavingsfromactivitiesimplementedtoJune2012.................................................................................................................37
Table3‐2. EnergyEfficiencyforSmallBusinessProgram–estimatedsavingsforoneyearfromactivitiesimplementedtoJune2012..................................................................................42
Table3‐3. ESPuptakeandimplementationovertimetoendofJune2012........................................45
Table3‐4. EnergySaverProgram–estimatedsavingsforoneyearfromactivitiesimplementedtoJune2012.................................................................................................................46
Table3‐5. NABERSratingsobtainedfrom2007/08to2010/11............................................................51
Table3‐6. GovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgram–smallsitescomponent‐estimatedsavingsforoneyearfromactivitiesimplementedtoJune2012........................................55
Table3‐7. Reporteddemandanduptakecomparedtoexpectations....................................................58
Table3‐8. SummaryofmethodsusedtoestimateenergysavingsforeachprogramtoendofJune2012..............................................................................................................................................68
Table4‐1.Evaluationreportsandmaindatacollectionmethodsforeachreport.............................77
Table4‐2. HPSPbillingdataanalysispreliminaryresults..........................................................................79
Table4‐3. ESSMeasurement&Verificationpreliminaryresults............................................................80
Table4‐4. ESPMeasurement&Verificationpreliminaryresults............................................................81
Table4‐5. EEGSPMeasurement&VerificationpreliminaryresultsfortheWestmeadHospitalcasestudy................................................................................................................................82
Table4‐6. EEGSPMeasurement&VerificationpreliminaryresultsfortheCentralPassageoftheSydneyOperaHousecasestudy..........................................................................................83
Table4‐7. EESBPMeasurement&Verificationpreliminaryresultsbybusinessactivity.............84
Table4‐8. EESBPMeasurement&Verificationpreliminaryresultsbytechnology........................85
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
vi
Figure1‐1. ProgramlogicoftheinitialEnergyEfficiencyStrategy..........................................................20
Figure2‐1. Improvedreliabilityofenergysavingsestimates.....................................................................24
Figure2‐2. AllocationofoverallelectricitysavingsachievedtoendofJune2012acrossprograms....................................................................................................................................................25
Figure3‐1. TreasuryLoanFunduptake...............................................................................................................53
Figure4‐1. OrganisationalchartofOEHunitsinvolvedinenergyefficiency.......................................74
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
vii
Acronymsandglossary
ACP AccreditedCertificateProviderundertheESSthatcreatetradeableenergysavingscertificates(ESCs)
CALD CulturallyandLinguisticallyDiverse
DEAS DECCWEnergyAssessmentSystem
DEC NSWDepartmentofEducationandCommunities
DECCW NSWDepartmentofEnvironment,ClimateChangeandWater(until2011,thenOEH)
DTRIS DepartmentofTradeandInvestment,RegionalInfrastructureandServices
EEAP EnergyEfficiencyActionPlan,theNSWGovernmentapproachtoenergyefficiencyproposedfrom2012
EECAP EnergyEfficiencyCommunityAwarenessProgram,NSWgovernmentprogram
EES EnergyEfficiencyStrategy,theNSWGovernment’sapproachtoenergyefficiency2008‐2012
EESBP EnergyEfficiencyforSmallBusinessProgram,NSWgovernmentprogramtargetingsmallbusinesses
ESC EnergySavingsCertificate,atradablecertificatecreatedthroughtheESSfromthemeasurementofenergysavings
ESP EnergySavingsProgram,NSWgovernmentprogramtargetingmediumtolargebusinesses
EETP EnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgram,NSWgovernmentprogram
EEGSP EnergyefficiencycomponentofNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy
ESS EnergySavingsScheme,NSWgovernmentwhitecertificatescheme
FY FinancialYear
HPSP HomePowerSavingsProgram,NSWgovernmentprogramtargetinglowincomehouseholds
HVAC Heating,VentilationandAir‐conditioning
IAB InternalAuditBureau,NSWgovernmenttradingenterprisethatprovidesauditservices
IPART IndependentPricingandRegulatoryTribunal
IRA InstituteforRuralAffairs
ISF InstituteforSustainableFutures
KPI KeyPerformanceIndicator
M&V MeasuringandVerificationtheprocessofusingmeasurementtoreliablydetermineactualenergysavingsbycomparingmeasuredusebeforeandafterimplementationofaproject
NGO Non‐governmentorganisation
NABERS NationalAustralianBuiltEnvironmentRatingSystem
OEH OfficeofEnvironmentandHeritage, NSWDepartmentofPremierandCabinet
PD4VET ProfessionalDevelopmentforVocationalEducationandTrainingpractitioners
RTO RegisteredTrainingOrganisation
VET VocationalEducationandTraining
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
viii
Executivesummary
Thisreportisthe2012evaluationofsevenprogramsmanagedbytheOfficeofEnvironmentandHeritage(OEH)thatwerepartoftheformerNSWEnergyEfficiencyStrategy(ESS).ItassessestheprogramsataninterimpointtoJune2012andisbasedonevaluationfindingsavailablebyJune2012.
Scopeoftheprograms
TheNSWGovernmenthasanongoingcommitmenttoimprovingenergyefficiencyacrossthehousehold,businessandgovernmentsectors.Thesesevenprogramscommencedin2009andrepresentaninvestmentinenergyefficiencybyOEHof$161.4million.ThereareotherNSWGovernmentandOEHenergyefficiencyprogramswhicharenotpartofthisevaluation.
Threeoftheseprogramsaredirectenergysavingprograms(HPSP,ESP,andEESBP)targetingspecificsectors(lowincomehouseholds;smallbusinesses;mediumandlargebusinesses)andaccountfor61percentoftheOEHexpenditure(HPSPaccountsfor39percent).Twoarebroadercapacitybuildingprogramsthataddresscommunityawareness(EECAP)andtheworkforceforenergyefficiency(EETP).EEGSPisapolicymixtargetingthegovernmentsectorthroughfiveprograms.
Theuncertaintyaroundenergysavingsfromenergyefficiencyprograms,highlightedbythe2007OwenInquiryintoElectricitySupplyinNSW,wasanimportantdriverforevaluation,andledtheestablishmentoftheDataandEvaluationProgram(DEP).
ThedesignoftheEESwasinfluencedbytheapproachinCalifornia,consideredtheworldleaderinenergyefficiencypolicy,whichhasamixofprogramstargetingmultiplemarketsectors;programsforeducation,trainingandstate‐widemarketing;andasubstantialevaluationprogram.
The2012evaluation
ThisevaluationassessestheprogramsataninterimpointtoJune2012.Itexamines
howeffectivelyprogramsarebeingdeliveredandreachingtheirtargetgroups theoutcomesproducedbytheprogramstodateincludingreducedenergyuseand
increasedcapacityformanagingenergyuseacrossthesectors
Theprograms HomePowersavingsProgram
(HPSP) EnergyEfficiencyforSmall
BusinessProgram(EESBP) EnergySaverProgram(ESP) energyefficiencycomponentof
NSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy(EEGSP)
EnergyEfficiencyCommunityAwarenessProgram(EECAP)
EnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgram(EETP)
DataandEvaluationProgram(DEP)
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
ix
improvementsinthereliabilityofenergysavingsestimates
Theevaluationisbasedonasynthesisofevaluationsandreportsontheprograms.Quantitativedataonreach,uptakeandenergysavingswascollectedbytheprogramsandanalysedbytheOEHStrategyandAnalysisteam.Eachprogramundertookarangeofevaluationandreporting.MethodstoverifyenergysavingsweredevelopedandimplementedthroughtheDataandEvaluationProgram.
Weareconfidentthatthefindingsofthisevaluationrepresenttheoverallpatternsofdeliveryandoutcomestodate.Thefindingsfromdifferentsourceswereconsistent,andmorereliabledataonenergysavingswasavailable(seebelow).Somecautionisneededassomeoftheevaluationsandthemeasurementprojectsareworksinprogressatthisstageandsomeuncertaintiesremain.
Overallfinding
Theseenergyefficiencyprogramsarelargelybeingdeliveredeffectively.Thishasrequiredmanyadaptationswithinprogramswhichhaveledtoincreasinglystrategicandeffectiveapproaches.Alltheevidenceindicatesthattheprogramsaregenerallywellreceivedbyparticipants.
OEHnowhasmorereliablemeasuresofenergysavings,withtheapplicationofnewmethodssubstantiallyimprovingestimatesovertheperiod.
Energysavingsarebeingachievedandtheseareexpectedtoincrease.Alldirectenergysavingsprogramshavedeliveredsubstantialenergysavings,thoughthereisstillvariationinthereliabilityofestimates.Theseenergysavingsarecost‐effective,deliveredatalowercostthanthecostofprovidingthesameamountofelectricity.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
x
OEHComment
TheCouncilofAustralianGovernments(COAG)calledonjurisdictionstoreviewthecomplementarityofclimatemitigationprograms,includingNSWenergyefficiencyprograms,withtheCommonwealth’sCleanEnergyFuturepackage.
InDecember2012,thePremierannounceddecisionstocease,reformandretainNSWenergyefficiencyprogramsasaresultofthiscomplementarityreview.
TheNSWProfessionalServicesActionPlananddraftNSWRenewableEnergyActionPlancommittedtheMinisterfortheEnvironmenttobringforwardanEnergyEfficiencyActionPlanwithanimprovedsuiteofenergyefficiencyprograms.
BoththefindingsofthisindependentevaluationandgovernmentdecisionsonthecomplementarityreviewinformedtheNSWEnergyEfficiencyActionPlan.
Energysavingsarebeingachieved
Expectationsattheinterimstage
Mostoftheprogramsstartedintheircurrentformin2009andarefundeduntil2013or2014.Theyarebeingdeliveredinacontextofchangeanduncertaintyaroundelectricitycosts,energyefficiencyandclimatechangewithingovernmentsandthewidercommunity.MostoftheprogramsarenewforNSW—HPSPandEESBParethefirsttimelowincomehouseholdsandsmallbusinesseshavebeendirectlytargetedinthisway.Inthesecircumstancesevidenceofinitialoutcomesandeffectiveimplementationiscritical.
OEHhasmorereliablemeasuresofenergysavings
Theestimatesofenergysavingshavesubstantiallyimprovedovertheperiod,progressingfromprojecteddeemedsavingstoverifiedestimatesbasedonmeasuresofactualenergyuse.Asignificantachievementhasbeenthedevelopmentofmethodstoestimateactualenergysavingsinlinewithinternationalbestpractice.OEHreachedagreementswithenergydistributorstoaccesslarge‐scalebillingdataforhouseholds(HPSP)andsmallbusinesses(EESBP)—thefirsttimesuchcomprehensivedatahasbeenavailabletoagovernmentagencyinAustralia—whichformedthebasisforindependentstudiesusingrigorousstatisticalanalysis.Formediumtolargesites(ESP,EEGSP)OEHdevelopedaguideformeasurementandverification(M&V)basedontheinternationalprotocolandhascommissionedarangeofindependentstudies.
AtthisstagetheevidenceforHPSPandEESBPisbasedonactualmeasuresofenergyuse,andforESPonengineeringestimates,withM&Vprojectstobeunderwaylaterthisyear.Whilethescopeformeasurementhasvariedbetweentheprograms(dependingonthenumbersandcharacteristicsofparticipantsaswellasontechnologiesinstalled),thisworkhasandwillcontinuetoprovideincreasinglyreliablemeasures.Withmorerobust
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
xi
evidenceandreduceduncertaintyaroundenergysavings,OEHhasanincreasinglysoundbasisforassessingeffectivenessandcost‐effectiveness,forrefiningdeliveryandforplanningfutureenergyefficiencyprograms.
Energysavingsarebeingachievedandexpectedtoincrease
Alldirectenergysavingsprogramshavedeliveredsubstantialenergysavings,thoughasdescribedabovethereliabilityofestimatesvaries.Totalannualenergysavingsare118,834MWhofelectricityand187,716Gjofgas,leadingtoanestimatedreductioninparticipants’energybillsof$28,496,340toendofJune2012(thisincludestheGovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgramforsmallsites).Theestimatedenergysavingswouldresultin136,697tonnesofavoidedCO2emissions.Eachoftheprogramshasbeenasignificantsourceofenergysavings,withESPcontributing38%ofelectricitysavings,EESBP32%andHPSP27%.
FortheESPthesavingsatthisinterimstageareexpectedtoaccelerateoverthenextfewyears.Itisclearthattheprogramhasamodelthatcanachievesubstantialenergysavingsandcutenergybillsatmediumtolargesites.Theextentofsavingsislikelytobeclearerasmorebusinessesimplementauditrecommendationsovertime,andtheprogrammeasuresandreportsonthis,withincreasinglyreliabledatafromM&V.
ForEESBPthehighlevelofreachprovidesastrongfoundationforsavings(17,185smallbusinessesregisteredtoendofJune2012comparedtotheinitialtargetof6,000).Thekeychallengehasbeenliftingtherateofconversionfromregistrationtotheimplementationofrecommendations,andmajorrefinementstotheprogramdesignarebeingsuccessfulinaddressingthis,withevidenceofanincreasingconversionrateandmostactionsareattributabletotheprogram.
HPSPhasbeenauniqueprogramforOEHinseveralways.Itisaverylarge‐scaleintermsofbudgetandnumberofparticipants,andbeganwithrelativelyuntestedassumptions.Itiscomplicatedbyhavingsocialaswellasenergyefficiencyobjectives,whichfocusonlowincomehouseholds,specifictargetgroups(CALDandAboriginalhouseholds),andgeographicequityofaccess.InitialresultsforHPSPhavebeenpromising.Withextensivereachacrossitstargetgroupoflowincomehouseholds(115,508completedassessmentstoJune2012),ithasafirmbasistodeliversavings.EnergysavingswereestimatedwithahighlevelofreliabilitybythebillingdataanalysisconductedwithDEPinMay2012.Itfoundaveragesavingsof0.22megawatt‐hoursofelectricityperannum(or4percentreduction)foreachparticipatinghousehold,butdifferedwiththekititemsreceived(householdsreceivingtheshowerheadachieveonaverage6percentsavings).Theenergysavingsareencouraginggiventhelimitedpossibleimpactofthesmallkititems.Further,theelectricitysavingfromthelargestiteminstalledbyHPSP(efficientshowerheads)matchedthemeasuredsavingsfromSydneyWater’sefficientshowerheadretrofitprojects.Inadditiontheprogramhasachievedthesesavingswhileeffectivelyaddressingitssocialobjectiveoftargetinglow‐incomehouseholds.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
xii
WhiletheenergysavingspresentedinthisreportareprimarilylimitedtothedirectenergysavingprogramsandmeasuredbyOEH,therearelikelytobemorediffuseimpacts.Forexamplethereisevidencethatthedirectprogramsleadtowiderenergysavingswithintheirsectorsthroughmultipliereffectsasindividualsandbusinessespromoteenergyefficiencymorebroadly.Thecapacitybuildingprograms(EETPandEECAP)arealsoexpectedtohavepositivebutmorediffuseimpactsonenergysavingsnowandintothefuture.
TheESPhashadanimportantpositiveimpactforNSWbypositioningparticipatingorganisationstoattractfundingfortheirenergyefficiencyactivities.ForexampleinJune2012fourESPparticipantswongrantsinthefirstroundoftheCommonwealthCleanTechnologyInvestmentProgram(CTIP),receiving86%ofthenationalallocation,andafurther20ESPsitesareapplying.AkeysuccessfactorwasthecomprehensiveESPaudit.
OEHComment
ThecomplementarityreviewinformedgovernmentdecisionstomergetheEESBPintoESPtoimproveadministrativeefficiencyandtoretainHPSPasitmetallofthecomplementarityprinciples.
NSW2021includesatargettosupport220,000lowincomehouseholdstoreduceenergyuseby“upto20%”by2014.TheEnergyEfficiencyActionPlanseekstoincreasetheenergysavingsofparticipatinghouseholds.
Energysavingsarebeingproducedatalowercostthanthecostofprovidingthesameamountofelectricity
Onthecurrentevidenceallthedirectenergysavingsprogramareprovingtobecost‐effectiveovertheirlifetimewhenthecostpermegawatt‐houriscomparedwiththebenchmarkretailcostofprovidingelectricitytoeachcustomergroup.
OEHcalculatedcost‐effectivenessusingthemethodinthe2009IPARTreviewofNSWClimateChangeMeasures.BasedonthesavingsestimatesdescribedaboveforeachprogramtoendofJune2012,cost‐effectivenessisexpressedasthelevelisedcostpermegawatt‐hourthatreflectsthepresentvalueofcostsoverthelifetimeofprojects,takingintoaccountthevaryingpersistencefactorsoftheretrofits,equipmentinstalledandbehaviourchanges.Onthisbasisthelevelisedcostofonemegawatt‐hoursavedis$138forHPSP,$66forEESBP,$34forESPand$179forGBRP.
Comparisonofcost‐effectivenessbetweentheseprogramsgiveslimitedinsightbecausetheyhavedifferentobjectivesandinparticulartargetdifferentsectorsandcustomergroups.Itismorerelevanttocomparethecostofamegawatt‐hoursavedforeachprogramtoitsrelevantbenchmarkcost,inthiscasetheretailcostinresourcesofprovidingelectricityforthesametypeofcustomers.Thisbenchmarkcostvariesfrom$184forGovernmentcontractsto$281forhouseholds.Onthisbasisallthedirectenergysavingsprogramarecost‐effectiveovertheirlifetime.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
xiii
Communityawarenessisincreasing
TheSavePowermassmediacampaigntelevisionadvertisinginitsfinalphasereachedalmosttwo‐thirdsofNSWadults(63percent),withmost(77percent)findingitconvincingandathirdfeelingmotivatedtotheactionsinthemessages.Approvalofthecampaignhasbeenpositiveandresearchsuggeststhatitiscontributingtoimprovedknowledgeofenergyefficiencyandhaspositivelyinfluencedenergyusebehaviours.Thewidereachofthecampaignoffersgreatpotentialforenergysavingsfrombehaviourchangeatthisscale.
Implementationhasbeeneffective
Adaptiveandincreasinglyeffectiveimplementation
Akeyachievementtothispointisthattheprogramsarelargelybeingdeliveredasintended,arereasonablyinlinewithdeliverytargets,andhavedevelopedincreasinglystrategicandeffectiveapproaches.Forthedirectenergysavingsprogramsinparticularthishasrequiredmanyadaptationstotheirinitialsettingsanddeliveryprocesses,summarisedinthisreport.
Highparticipantsatisfactionandpositivestakeholderengagement
Alltheevidenceindicatesthattheprogramsweregenerallywellreceivedbyparticipants.Highlevelsofparticipantsatisfactionhavebeenrecordedforthedirectenergysavingprograms.Theprogramshavealsobeeneffectiveinengagingexternalstakeholdersincludingparticipantsas‘multipliers’topromotetheprogram.Assessorshavebeenakeyassetnotjustindeliveringassessmentsbutincontributingtopromotionandfurtherrecruitmentofparticipants.
Regionalfocusachieved
TheprogramshavehadasignificantregionalfocusinlinewiththeGovernment’scommitmenttosupportregionalcommunities.HPSPisaddressinganexplicittargetforgeographicequityofaccess,andtheothertwodirectenergysavingsprogramshaveover50%ofparticipatingbusinessesfromoutsideSydney.
Workingwiththegovernmentsectorhadmixedresults
EffectivenessofimplementationofthefiveprogramsundertheNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicyvariedsignificantly:somehadsomegoodresultsliketheGovernmentRetrofitBuildingProgram,whilesomeothershadlittleimpact.Commonbarrierstoengageeffectivelywithagenciesincludedtheirlackoftechnicalknowledge,andtimeandresourcestoapplyforthesupportoffered.
Communityawarenessandworkforcecapacityforenergyefficiencyisbeingdeveloped
Twoprogramsaddressedtheenablersandbarriersforgreaterenergyefficiency,andhavebothbeenlargelyimplementedasintended.TheEETPtargetskeyindustrysectors
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
xiv
andoccupationswhichareabletoimplementenergyefficiencyopportunities,theeducationandtrainingworkforce,andpolicymakersandprogrammanagers.IthasdevelopedclearformalpartnershiparrangementswiththeDepartmentofEducationandCommunities(DEC)thatnowprovidesasoundplatformforsharedprogramdelivery.Amajorachievementhasbeenengaging5,290participantsinenergyefficiencytraining,networkingorprofessionaldevelopmentbetweenJuly2009andApril2012.
TheEECAPsuccessfullyimplementedacomprehensive,multi‐strategyandongoingsocialmarketingcampaignoverthreeyears.TheSavePowermassmediacampaignwasdeliveredinfivephasesofadvertisingactivityovertwowintersandtwosummers,supportedbytwophasesofqualitativeresearchandsevenroundsoftrackingresearch.
TheEECAPeffectivelydeliveredarangeofothereducationalprogramstoreachdifferentsegmentsoftheNSWcommunity.Bi‐lingualeducatorsweretrainedanddelivered57energyworkshopsdeliveredtoCALDparticipants.TheCSIRO’sEnergymarkprojectwastrialledwith112groupstoApril2012.SavePowerlibrarykitswereborrowedby6,400householdsintwelvemonthswithevidenceofpositiveimpactontheirknowledgeandbehaviour.Majorelectricalapplianceretailersweresuccessfullyengagedwithtrainingdeliveredtostaffin142storestoassistcustomerstoconsiderenergyefficiencyintheirpurchasedecisions.Theexperienceoftheseprograms,thetrackingresearchandtheevaluationsareprovidingOEHwithasubstantialevidencebasetoinformfuturesocialmarketingforenergyefficiency.
OEHComment
ThecomplementarityreviewinformedgovernmentdecisionstoceasethevocationaltrainingelementsofEETPastheyduplicatefundingfromtheCommonwealth.Thenon‐duplicativeaspectsofEETParetobemergedintotheESP.
TheEECAPendedin2012asplanned.
Cross‐impactsofprogramshavebeenlimited
Therehavebeenonlylimitedcross‐programimpactsatthisstage.ThedeliveryofthedirectenergysavingsprogramsandtheEEGSPwererelativelyseparateandfocussedontheirspecifictargetgroups.LinkagesbetweentheseprogramsandtheNSWEnergySavingsScheme(ESS)havebeenlimited.
Thetwocapacitybuildingprogramshavescopetosupporttheotherprogramstosomedegreethroughincreasingawarenessacrossthestate,andbuildingtheenergyefficiencyworkforce.TheSavePowercampaignandtheEESwebsitedeliveredprovidedcommonbrandingfortheprogramsandinfluencedattitudesinthecommunity.EETPisplanningformoreemphasisoncustomisingexistingcoursesandresourcesandcomplementingimplementationofESPprojects.Inpracticecross‐pollenisationhasbeenlimitedbythedifferenttimeframes.Long‐termimpactsofEETPontheenergyefficiencyworkforcewillbemorediscernibleinthefuture.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
xv
MostOEHmanagersinvolvedwiththeseenergyefficiencyprogramswantedamoresystematicandstructuredprocessforoverallgovernanceandinformationsharing,whilerecognisingtheneedtoavoidprocessburdensandtomaintainprogramflexibility.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
16
1. Theprogramsandtheevaluation
1.1 Theprogramsinscope
TheNSWGovernmenthascommittedtoimprovingenergyefficiencyacrossthehousehold,businessandgovernmentsectors.InJune2008itlaunchedasuiteofeightprogramsknownastheNSWEnergyEfficiencyStrategy.NotallNSWGovernmentorOEHenergyefficiencyprogramswereincludedintheEES.ThisevaluationcoverstheprogramsundertheEEStoJune2012butdoesnotincludetheNSWEnergySavingsScheme(ESS)whichisnotmanagedbyOEHandhasnotbeenfullyevaluatedtodate.
TheprogramsrepresentaninvestmentinenergyefficiencybyOEHof$161.4million,withtheHomePowerSavingProgram(HPSP)accountingfor39percent.Mostoftheprogramsstartedintheircurrentformin2009andarecurrentlyfundeduntil2013or2014(Table1‐1).
Table1‐1. Theprogramsbyapproach,sector,completionandallocatedOEHexpenditure
Program Sector/initialtarget Fundeduntil $million %
HomePowerSavingProgram(HPSP)
Households‐ 220,000lowincomehouseholds
June2014 $63 39%
EnergyEfficiencyforSmallBusinessProgram(EESBP)
Smallbusinesses‐ 6,000 December2012 $15 9%
EnergySaverProgram(ESP) Mediumandlargesites‐ 800 June2014 $20 12%
EnergyefficiencycomponentofNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy(EEGSP)
NSWGovernmentagencies December2012 $26.4 16%
EnergyEfficiencyCommunityAwarenessProgram(EECAP)
NSWcommunity‐ domesticandworkplace
June2012 $15 9%
EnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgram(EETP)
Educationandtrainingorganisations
June2013 $20 12%
DataandEvaluationProgram Energyefficiencyprograms June2013 $2 1%
Total $161.4 100%
Therationaleforthestrategyincludedafocusonintensiveandhighlyvisibleprogramsthatwouldkick‐startenergyefficiencyactionsinNSW,andwouldcomplementtheanticipatednationalemissionstradingscheme.AninitialinfluencewastheapproachinCalifornia,consideredtheworld’sleaderinenergyefficiencypoliciesandprograms,althoughatamuchlargerscaleandwithaverydifferenthistory,regulatorysettingandmarketcontextfromNSW.LikeNSW,Californiahasamixofprogramstargeting
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
17
multiplemarketsectors(residential,commercial,industrialandagricultural),monetaryincentivesandotherprogramssuchaseducationandtraining,state‐widemarketingandasubstantialevaluationprogram.1
1.2 Directenergysavingprogramsarethemajorcomponent
Forthisevaluationitisusefultogrouptheprogramsbasedontheirmainstrategiesforchangeandtheirgovernancearrangements(Table1‐2):
Threedirectenergysavingprogramstargetdifferentsectors,allmanagedbyOEH,aimtodeliveryenergyandcostsavingsforprogramparticipants.Togethertheyarethemostsignificantcomponentoftheprogramsandaccountfor61percentofOEHexpenditure.
Twoprogramsaddresstheunderlyingcapacityforchangetowardsgreaterenergyefficiency.OneismanagedbyOEH,theotherisaformalpartnershipbetweenOEHandNSWDepartmentofEducationandCommunities(DEC).
TheenergyefficiencycomponentofNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicyinvolvesmultipleagenciesandhasdistributedgovernancearrangementswhereOEHhaspolicyresponsibilitybutnodirectmanagementrole.
TheOEHDataandEvaluationProgramwhichaimstoimprovecapacityformeasuringenergyefficiencyacrosstheprogramsandtoprovideevaluation.
Table1‐2. Programsgroupedbyapproachesandgovernance
DirectenergysavingprogramsmanagedbyOEH
ThreeOEHprogramsaimtoachieveoutcomesattwolevels(1)participantswithincreasedcapacity(assessments,retrofitrebates,energyefficientitems),skillsandawarenessformanagingtheirenergyleadingto(2)energysavingsandtheassociatedsavingsinparticipants’energybills.Theyuseanassessmentofenergyusewhereassessorsprovideparticipantswithadviceandtoolstoimprovetheirenergyefficiencyusingan‘assess‐plan‐act’model.
Theprogramstargetenergyusersindifferentsectorsandhavedistinctivestrategiesforengagingwithparticipantsandsupportinghouseholdororganisationalbehaviourchange. HomePowerSavingProgram(HPSP)offersfree
assessmentandasavepowerkittolowincomehouseholds.
SmallBusinessEnergyEfficiencyProgram(EESBP)offersasubsidisedenergyassessmenttosmallbusinessesandmatchedfundingtosupporttheimplementationofrecommendations.Upto4hoursofsupportisalsoavailableassistthebusinesseswiththeirupgrades.
EnergySaverProgram(ESP)providesmediumtolargebusinesseswithsubsidisedenergyassessments,includingbusinesscasesforinvestmentinenergyefficiency.Upto20hoursoftechnicalandprojectsupportisalsoavailabletoassistwiththeinstallationofequipment.
1SeeCalifornianPublicUtilitiesCommission,EnergyDivision(2010)2006‐2008EnergyEfficiencyReport.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
18
Capacitybuildingprograms
Twoprogramsaddressunderlyingcommunityandworkforcecapacityforaddressingenergyefficiency.OneismanagedbyOEH(EECAP);theotherisaformalpartnershipbetweenOEHandDEC(EETP).
EnergyEfficiencyCommunityAwarenessProgram(EECAP)usesmainstreamandbelow‐the‐linecommunicationscampaignsunderthe“SavePower”banner.
EnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgram(EETP),multiplestrategiestoimprovethecapacityoftheworkforceforenergyefficiency
OEHsupportingaprogramimplementedbyothergovernmentagencies
OEHcoordinatestheenergyefficiencycomponentofNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy,whichcoversseveralprogramsthatareultimatelytheresponsibilityoftheindividualagencies
TargetsforthewholeofgovernmentweresetinthePolicy.TheenergyefficiencycomponentofNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy(EEGSP)coversfiveprograms:theSchoolsEnergyEfficiencyProgram,NABERSratingofofficebuilding,Greenleaseschedules,TreasuryLoanFund‐SustainableGovernmentInvestmentProgramandtheGovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgram.OEHisprovidingsupporttoparticipatingagenciesthroughfacilitation,technicalsupportandinformationresources.
Dataandevaluation
ThisOEHprogramisbuildingcapacitytomeasureandevaluateenergyefficiency.
DataandEvaluationProgram(DEP)hasprojectstoimprovecapacityformeasuringandverifyingenergyefficiency,forevaluatingprogramsandforassessingoverallbenefits.
1.3 ThepolicycontextforenergyefficiencyinNSW
EnergyefficiencyisamajoraspectofNSWGovernment10‐yearstrategicplan‘NSW2021’;itflowsacrossseveralgoals,especiallythoserelatedtothecostoflivingandthenaturalenvironment.Rapidlyincreasingelectricitypricesarehighlightingthevalueofenergyefficiencyforthepublicandthegovernment.
Inthewiderpolicycontext,energyefficiencyisreceivingmoreandmoreattentionacrossAustralianstatesandterritoriesandatthenationallevel,especiallyinthecontextoftheCommonwealthGovernment’scarbontax.AspartoftheCleanEnergyFutureplan,theCommonwealthGovernmenthasdevelopedenergyefficiencyinitiativesthatmayimpactonNSWprogramsinthisarea.
Thecontextfortheseprogramsoverrecentyearshasbeenchangeanduncertainty.TheyaremainlynewprogramswithsomeapproachesbeingimplementedforthefirsttimeinNSWandevenAustralia.TheyhaveinvolvedOEHinnewstrategies,increasedscalesofdeliveryandnewstakeholderrelationships.Theyarebeingdeliveredina
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
19
policyandprogramcontextforenergyefficiencyandclimatechangecharacterisedbyuncertaintywithinstateandCommonwealthgovernments.
1.4 Programlogic
AnEvaluationFrameworkwasdevelopedfortheEESin2010andrevisedwiththeEESEvaluationAdvisoryGroup.ItissummarisedintheprogramlogicdiagraminFigure1‐1.Theevaluationframeworkandprogramlogichelpstocommunicatetheprograms’objectives,formulateevaluationquestions,assesstheextentofimplementationatdifferentlevelsofimplementation,andformthebasisofevaluativeargumentsabouttheoveralleffectivenessoftheprograms.2
TheprogramlogicshowshowtheEESisbasedonthesuccessfuldeliveryoftheprogramstothetargetedsectors(theverticaldimension),toachievetheintermediateoutcomesofimprovedcapacitytomanageenergyuseinthatsector.Thedirectenergysavingsprogramsareexpectedtodeliverenergysavingsfortheirparticipants.Ultimatelytheprogramsareexpectedtocontributetotheintendedenvironmental,economicandsocialbenefitstoNSW.Oneoftheseoutcomesisreliableinformationonenergysavingsandcosts.
Theprogramlogicalsoshowstheassumedhorizontalinfluences:twoprograms(EECAPandEETP)aretobuildwidercapacitywithinthecommunityandtheindustrythatwillsupporttheoutcomesoftheotherprograms,andtheperformanceofthewholestrategyisinfluencedbyeffectivegovernanceandmanagementprocesses,andtheDataandEvaluationProgram(DEP).
ThelogicillustrateshowtheEnergySavingSchemeisoutsideofOEHandrunsparallelwiththeotherprograms.ItalsohighlightstheroleofotherfactorsthatmayimpactuponthepotentialachievementsoftheEESandinfluencetheintendedoutcomes.
2Identifyingtheprogramlogicisimportantintheevaluationofenergyefficiencyprogramsbecauseitrepresentstheunderlyingtheoryofchange,assumptionsandintermediateoutcomes—seeReed,J.H.,Jordan,G.,&Vine,E.(2007).Impactevaluationframeworkfortechnologydeploymentprograms,USDepartmentofEnergyhttp://www.cee1.org/eval/impact_framework_tech_deploy_2007_main.pdf;MirjamHarmelink,LarsNilssonandRobertHarmsen(2008),Theory‐basedpolicyevaluationof20energyefficiencyinstruments,EnergyEfficiencyVolume1,Number2,Springer
FinalReport– August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
20
Otherenergyefficiencyinstruments
(Cwlth,NSW)
ESS
Activitiesandoutputs
Intermediateoutcomes
Environmental,economicandsocialbenefitstoNSW Reducedcoststotheeconomyandenvironment(electricitydemand;emissions;needforinfrastructure;impactofrising
pricesoncustomers;costofemissionsreduction) Transformedmarketforenergyefficiency Sustainedbehaviourchangesbypeopleandorganisations Reliableinformationonenergysavingsandcosts
Ultimateoutcomes
Appropriatemixofprogramsdesigned,resourced,established.Targetsset.Appropriategovernancearrangements&processesestablished.Dataandevaluationsystemsdeveloped.
Reducedenergyuseacrosskeysectors
Increasedcapacity,skillsandawarenessformanagingenergyuseinkeysectors
Otherinfluences(positiveornegative)
Changingeconomicconditions
Changingcommunityattitudes
Newtechnologies
Factorsarisinginothersectorse.g.building
Populationchanges
Weatherandclimate
Targetgroupsreached/accessprograms
Immediateoutcomes
EESProgramsdeliveredefficientlyandasplanned
Households‐lowincomefamiliesHPSP
SmallBus.EESBP
Med&LargeBus.ESP
CommunityEECAP
NSWGovagenciesEEGSP
WorkforcesEETP
economicandenvironmentalcostsofenergywasteandhighdemandduetomarketfailures costandgreenhousegasemissionsofmoregenerationandnetworkinfrastructure risingelectricitypricesforNSWbusinesses,householdsandgovernmentagencies. uncertaintyandlackofreliableinformationaboutenergysavingsandtheircost
Design
Effectivegovernance,management,dataandevaluation
Serviceprovidersentermarketandseekaccreditation
Suitablesettings,management
Energyusersupgradeequipmentandimproveenergyefficiency
ACPs reachenergyusers,generateESCs
Suitableserviceprovidersareaccredited(ACPs)
Needidentified
Figure1‐1. ProgramlogicoftheinitialEnergyEfficiencyStrategy
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
21
1.5 Evaluationoftheenergyefficiencyprograms
AnimportantdriverforevaluationofenergyefficiencyprogramsinNSWwastheuncertaintyaroundreportedenergysavings,highlightedbythe2007OwenInquiryintoElectricitySupplyinNSW.
Enhancedenergyefficiencycoulddelaytheneedfornewbaseloadcapacity,butitwouldnotbeprudenttorelyonthisbeingthecase,particularlyinviewofthelackofreliableinformationabouttheactualelectricitysavingstodatefromexistingenergyefficiencyprograms,andtheuncertaintiessurroundingfutureelectricitysavingsfromexistingandpotentialenergyefficiencymeasures.
Thishasledtoafocusonbettermeasurementofenergysavingsandevaluation,andtheestablishmentofDataandEvaluationProgram(DEP)in2009(seesection3.7).
OEHdevelopedtheevaluationframeworkbasedontheprogramlogic(above)andanevaluationstrategywhereeachprogramcollectsdataonimplementationandoutcomesandconductsitsownevaluationactivities.ThisiscomplementedbydataanalysisbytheStrategyandAnalysisunitandthemeasurementandevaluationprojectsundertheDEP.
The2012evaluation(thisreport)isaDEPprojectundertakenbyARTDConsultantsincollaborationwithOEH.Theevaluationispartimpactevaluationandpartimplementationevaluation3,andexamines
– howeffectivelyprogramsarebeingdeliveredandreachingtheirtargetgroups– theoutcomesproducedbytheprogramstodateincludingreducedenergyuse
andincreasedcapacityformanagingenergyuseacrossthesectors– improvementsinthereliabilityofenergysavingsestimates
Thisevaluationhasbeenconductedasasynthesisoftheavailableevaluationinformationstructuredaroundtheprogramlogic.Themainsourceswere:
evaluationsandreportsfromtheprograms.Eachprogramconductedevaluationandresearchactivities,includingcomprehensiveindependentevaluationsorevaluationactivitieslikeparticipantsurveys,and/orinternalevaluationreports(seeAppendix1).
datafromtheStrategyandAnalysisteamcollectedforClimateChangeFundreporting
3ForacomprehensiveoverviewofevaluationforenergyefficiencyintheUSthatisrelevanttoNSW,seeReed,J.H.,Jordan,G.,&Vine,E.opcit;andNationalActionPlanforEnergyEfficiency(2007)ModelEnergyEfficiencyProgramImpactEvaluationGuide.StevenR.Schiller,SchillerConsulting,Inc.www.epa.gov/eeactionplan
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
22
reportsfromtheDEPmeasurementandverificationprojects
interviewswithOEHmanagersbyARTDinMay‐June2012tocollectfeedbackontheapproachtogovernance,coordinationandinformationsharing
feedbackfromOEHstakeholdersonearlierreports.
Weareconfidentthatthefindingsofthisevaluationrepresenttheoverallpatternsofdeliveryandoutcomestodate.Thedatafromdifferentsourceswereconsistent.Atthisinterimstage,somegapsanduncertaintiesremain,particularlywhereevaluationreportsfocussedoninitialphasesoftheprogramorwerestillindraftform.Similarlytheestimationsofenergysavingsarestillbeingdevelopedandapplied.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
23
2. Overalloutcomesandachievements
Mostoftheprogramsstartedintheircurrentformin2009andarecurrentlyfundeduntilin2013or2014.Atthisinterimpointthischapterexaminestheoveralloutcomesandachievementsinmid‐2012,drawinguponthefindingsfromtheevaluationsoftheindividualprogramssummarisedinchapterthree.
2.1 Programoutcomes
2.1.1 Estimatesofenergysavingsareincreasinglyreliable
SincetheprogramsstartedOEHhassubstantiallyimprovedthereliabilityofestimatesofenergysavingsachievedbyprogramsdirectlysupportingparticipantstoreducetheirenergyuse.Intheearlyphaseofeachprogram,energysavingsestimatesweredesktopcalculationsbasedontargetuptakeandplanningassumptions.Theseinitialestimateswereinformedbytheavailableinformationineachareawhichvariedbetweenprograms.Forinstancelimitedinformationwasavailableaboutenergysavingsachievedthroughdistributionofsmallenergyefficiencyitemstohouseholds,whereasnumerousstudieshadalreadytestedassumptionstoestimatetheimpactofretrofittingbuildingsandequipment.
OEHhasprogressivelyrefinedthesecalculationsfirstlybasedonactualuptakeofprogramsandsecondlybasedonrefinedengineeringestimatesasnewevidenceavailableaboutthetargetgrouporthetypesofchangesrecommended(retrofit,newequipmentorbehaviourchange).Inparticular,theyincludethepersistenceofenergysavings.ForexamplewithHPSPpersistenceisassumedtovarywiththeequipmentinstalled(e.g.10yearssavingsfromshowerheads,5yearsfromotherkitcomponents)andwithbehaviourchange(oneyearpersistence).
AsrepresentedinFigure2‐1belowthemainachievementhasbeentomovefromprojectedtoverifiedenergysavingsbasedon‘before‐and‐after’analysisinlinewithinternationalbestpractice.TheDataandEvaluationProgramhasprovidedallenergyefficiencyprogramswithvarioustoolsforrigorousestimationofenergysavings:after1.5yearsofnegotiationsagreementswerereachedwithenergydistributorstoaccesslarge‐scalebillingdataforhouseholds(HPSP)andsmallbusinesses(EESBP);DEPdevelopedaguideformeasurementandverification(M&V)basedontheinternationalprotocol4thathasbeenusedbyEESBP,ESP,GBRPandtheESS;arangeofindependent
4Measurementandverificationistheprocessofusingmeasurementstoreliablydetermineactualsavingscreatedforanindividualfacilityorproject.IPMVPistheInternationalPerformanceMeasurementandVerificationProtocol(http://www.evo‐world.org).
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
24
studieshavebeencommissionedtoanalysemeasurementdatacollected.Section3.7providesdetailedinformationonmethodsusedtoestimategrosssavingsforeachprogram.
Figure2‐1. Improvedreliabilityofenergysavingsestimates
Deemedsavings(projected) Grosssavings(verified) Netsavings(verified)
Engineeringassessment…
...basedontargetuptake
…basedonactualuptake
Beforeandafteranalysis…
...basedoncasestudiesorasmallsample
…basedonarepresentativesample
Excludingfree‐ridership
Accountingforpersistence
…coveringallprojects
HPSP
EESBPESP
GBRP
2009‐10 2011‐12
Reliability
HPSP
EESBP
ESP
GBRP
Source:OEHandARTDbasedonUSNationalActionPlanforEnergyEfficiency(2007)
AtthisstageestimatesofenergysavingsarebasedonactualmeasuresofenergyusefromrepresentativesamplesforHPSPandEESBP;reportingforGBRPandESPstillreliesondeemedsavingsbasedonactualuptake,withM&Vprojectson‐goingorplannedfor2013.Thedifferencesinmethodsandtimeframeformeasurementmainlydependontheparticipants’characteristicsandtheprojecttimeframe.InparticularESPandGBRPprojectsareofmuchbiggersizeandhavelongertimeframeswhichleadstodelaysin‘before‐and‐after’analysis.Asaresultmonitoringtheimplementationoftheseprojectsovertimeisakeychallenge.
Thenextstepinthiscontinuumtowardsmorereliableenergysavingsestimatesistoassessnetsavings,ortheportionofenergysavingsthatisattributabletotheprogram.Estimatingnetsavingsinvolvesexcludingfree‐ridersandreboundeffects.Someofthemethodsusedinthisevaluationalreadyassessnetsavings.All‘beforeandafter’analysisofenergyuse(e.g.forEESB)includesanyreboundeffectaftertheenergyefficiencyaction.Further,theverificationofenergysavingsfromHPSPincludeduseofanon‐participantcontrolgroup.Thisshowedgrossreductionsinenergyuseforprogramparticipantsof10%,with4%netenergysavingsafterremovingcommunitywideeffectsevidentinthecontrolgroup.
TheworkinitiatedbyDEPhasreduceduncertaintyaroundenergysavingsfromtheseprogramsandestablishedasoundbasistoassesstheeffectivenessandcost‐effectivenessoftheprograms.Thiscaninformimprovementstoprogramdeliveryanddesignoffutureprograms.DEPresultshavebeenincorporatedinestimatesofprojectedsavingsoverthelifetimeofprojectsthatareinformingthedesignoftheEnergyEfficiencyActionPlan.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
25
2.1.2 Energysavingsarebeingachievedandexpectedtoincrease
Thedirectprogramsaimtoachieveenergysavingsandtheassociatedsavingsinparticipants’energybillsthroughprovidingthemwithincreasedcapacity(energyassessments,retrofitrebates,energyefficientitems)skillsandawarenessformanagingtheirenergyuse.
Onthebestavailableestimates,allthedirectenergysavingsprogramshaveeitherdemonstratedorindicatedsubstantialenergysavingstodate.Acrossallfourprograms(includingtheGovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgramforsmallsites,adirectenergysavingscomponentoftheNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy),totalestimatedannualenergysavingsare118,434MWhofelectricityand187,716Gjofgas,leadingtoareductioninparticipants’energybillsof$28,496,340peryear.Theestimatedenergysavingswouldalsoresultin136,697tonnesofavoidedCO2emissions(Table2‐1).
Theprogramswillproducebenefitsoverthelifecyclesoftheinstalledtechnologieswhiletheyremaininplaceandoperable.Thesesavingswillvarywiththetechnologiesandwithunderlyingtechnical,marketandeconomicchangesineachsector.
Eachoftheseprogramshascontributedtotheenergysavings,withatthisstagemostsavingscomingfromthemediumtolargebusinesssectorthroughtheESP.
Figure2‐2. AllocationofoverallelectricitysavingsachievedtoendofJune2012acrossprograms
27%
32%
38%
3%
Home Power Savings Program
Energy Efficiency for Small Business Program
Energy Saver Program
Government Building Retrofit Program
.
FinalReport– August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
26
Table2‐1. Energyefficiencyprograms–estimatedannualsavingsfromactivitiesimplementedtoJune2012
Fundingtodate$ Reach Electricitysaved(MWh)pa
Gassaved(Gj)pa CO2tonnessaved Participants $savings
electricitybillspa
Participants $savings
gasbillspa
TotalParticipants$savingspa
HomePowerSavingProgram
$23,924,019 115,508completedassessments
31,595 32,346 $8,372,675 $8,372,675
EnergyEfficiencyforSmallBusinessProgram(EESBP)
$17,958,385 17,185businessesregistered
37,396 39,640 $9,124,627 $9,124,627
EnergySaverProgram
$11,095,056 366audits 45,432 186,155 60,357 $7,996,068 $2,345,552 $10,341,620
EnergyefficiencycomponentofNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy(GovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgram)
$5,249,631 105sites,567projects
4,011 1,561 4,354 $637,749 $19,669 $657,418
Total 118,434 187,716 138,273 $26,131,119 $236,5221 $28,496,340
Source:StrategyandAnalysis,OEHbasedonprogramdata
Notes:
MethodsforcalculatingsavingsarebasedonthemostrecentdatafromevaluationreportsandtheDEPmeasurementandverificationprojects,usingconservativeestimates.Detailsareinnotestotheindividualprogramtablesinsection3.
Thebillsavingsusethetariffsdevelopedforthe2010‐11ClimateChangeFundannualreport.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
27
FortheESPthe31,595MWhofestimatedenergysavingsatthisstageareexpectedtoaccelerateoverthenextfewyears.Itisclearthattheprogramhasamodelthatcanachievesubstantialenergysavingsandcutenergybillsatparticipants’sites.Casestudieshavedemonstratedenergysavingsofupto70percentforindustrialrefrigerationatvarioussites,andsimilarresultsforlightingretrofits.Theextentofsavingsislikelytobeclearerasmorebusinessesimplementauditrecommendationsovertime,andtheprogrammeasuresandreportsonthis.TheincreaseduseofM&VshouldprovidefirmevidenceofenergyandcostsavingsandallowESPtomoreaccuratelyextrapolatefindingsacrossparticipatingbusinessesandsub‐sectors.
EESBPhasachievedahighlevelofreach(17,185smallbusinessesregisteredtoJune2012comparedtotheinitialtargetof6,000)andgeneratedanestimated37,400MWhofannualelectricitysavingsleadingtoasavingsinparticipantselectricitybillsofover$9.1million.Thekeychallengehasbeenliftingtherateofconversionfromregistrationtorebatesforretrofits.Majorrefinementstotheprogramdesignhaveincreasedtheconversionratetoover50percenttotheendofJune2012,withevidencethatmostactionsareattributabletotheprogram.ThescaleofenergysavingswasdemonstratedthroughfindingsfrommeasurementandverificationanalysisconductedbyDEPover331projects(accountingforaround17%ofalltherebatesatthattime).Onaverageeachbusinesssaved5.64MWhor9.3percentrelativetoitsbaselineforthefirstyear.
InitialresultsforHPSPhavebeenpromising.Ithasachievedextensivereachacrossitstargetgroupoflowincomehouseholds(115,508completedassessmentstoJune2012),andhasdelivered31,595MWhofannualelectricitysavingsleadingtoasavingsinparticipants’electricitybillsofalmost$8.4millionTheseenergysavingsweremeasuredwithahighlevelofreliabilitythroughthebillingdataanalysisconductedinMay2012whereaveragesavingsof0.22megawatt‐hourofelectricityperannum(or4percentreduction)foreachparticipatinghouseholdwerefound.Savingsdifferedaccordingtothekititemsreceived(householdsreceivingtheshowerheadachieveonaverage6percentsavings).Theenergysavingsareencouraginggiventhelimitedpossibleimpactofthesmallkititems.Further,theelectricitysavingfromthelargestiteminstalledbyHPSP(efficientshowerheads)matchedthemeasuredsavingsfromSydneyWater’sefficientshowerheadretrofitprojects.Inadditiontheprogramhasachievedthesesavingswhileeffectivelyaddressingitssocialobjectiveoftargetinglow‐incomehouseholds,equityofaccessacrossthestate,andworkingwithspecifictargetgroupsinCALDandAboriginalhouseholds.
2.1.3 Otherbenefitsareemerging
Theenergysavingspresentedinthisreportareprimarilylimitedtothedirectenergysavingprograms.Howevertherearelikelytobemorediffuseimpacts.Forexamplethereisevidencethatthetheseprogramsleadtowiderenergysavingswithintheirsectorsthroughmultipliereffectsasindividualsandbusinessespromoteenergyefficiencymorebroadly.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
28
Furthermorethecapacitybuildingprogramswillalsohaveapositiveimpactonenergysavings.WhileEETPhasnodirectmeasurableenergysavingsoutcomes,atthisstagethelimitedpreandposttrainingdatashowstrainingparticipantsreportingchangedorganisationalpractices,operationsand/ortechnologies,andanumberestimatedormeasuredresultingenergysavingsattributedtotheprogram.TheEECAPsocialmarketingcampaignfocussedonwiderawarenessraisingandcapacitybuildingbutanumberofcomponentsindicateddirectenergysavings.Peoplewhohadraisedawarenessfromthemassmediacampaignreportedincreasedenergysavingbehaviours,sustainedovertime.ParticipantsintheEnergymarkprojectreportedreductionsintheirhousehold’scarbonemissionsandelectricityuse.
AnotherlongertembenefitforNSWisimprovingthecapacityororganisationstofurtherachieveenergysavings.ForexampletheESPhashadanimportantpositiveimpactbypositioningparticipatingorganisationstoattractfundingtoimplementtheirenergyefficiencyactivities.InJune2012fourESPparticipantswongrantsinthefirstroundoftheCommonwealthCleanTechnologyInvestmentProgram(CTIP),receiving86%ofthenationalallocation,andafurther20ESPsitesareapplying.AkeysuccessfactorwasthecomprehensiveESPaudit.AnotherexampleislinkingeachsitetoanAccreditedCertificateProvider(ACP)withintheESS,theNSWenergyefficiencytradingscheme,togeneratefundsforbusinessestoimplementprojects.
2.1.4 Thedirectenergysavingsprogramsarecost‐effectiveoverthelifetimeofsavings
OEHassessedthecost‐effectivenessofitsenergy‐efficiencyprogramsusingthemethodsetoutinthe2009IPARTreviewofNSWClimateChangeMeasuresonthebasisofcomplementaritytotheCommonwealthcarbonpricescheme.Undertherecommendedframework,acost‐effectiveenergysavingprogramisdefinedasonethatdeliversitssavingsatalowercostthanifthesamebenefitsweremadeundertheCarbonPollutionReductionScheme(CPRS).Thebenchmarkcostisdefinedasthefuturecarbon‐inclusiveretailpriceofelectricitythatisrelevanttothetargetedcustomergroup,whichreflectsnotonlytheusagecomponentbutthefullcostinresourcesofprovidingelectricity.5
Cost‐effectivenesswascalculatedby:
1. Expressingtheestimatedcostsandsavingsinpresentvaluetermsusinga7percentdiscountrate
2. Convertingthepresentvalueofthecostsandbenefitsintoaanaveragecostperunit—levelisedcost—inthiscasethecostpermegawatt‐hour
3. Calculatingtherelevantbenchmarkcostaccordingtothetargetcustomergroup.
5IPART,ReviewofNSWClimateChangeMitigationMeasures,May2009
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
29
TheTable2‐2belowpresentstheresultsofthiscost‐effectivenessanalysisforthefourprogramsproducingdirectenergysavings.Thekeypartofthisanalysisistoestimatesavingsachievedbyparticipantsbasedonthedatetheyenteredtheprogram,assumptionsforannualsavingsandlifeofsavingsaccordingtotheretrofit,equipmentinstalledorbehaviourchange.
Table2‐2. Cost‐effectivenessforthedirectenergysavingsprograms
HPSP EESBP ESP GBRP
Discountrate 7% 7% 7% 7%
ProgramcoststoendofJune2012(realcosts,$m)
$27.296 $18.794 $11.622 $5.381
Electricitysavingsperyear(MWh)
31,595MWh 37,396MWh 45,432MWh 4,011MWh
Lifetimeelectricitysavings 252,763MWh 373,960MWh 454,322MWh 40,110MWh
Calculatedlevelisedcost $138/MWh $66/MWh $34/MWh $179/MWh
Benchmarklevelisedcost $281/MWh $245/MWh $187/MWh $184/MWh
Source:OEH,WaterandEnergyProgramDivision,StrategyandAnalysissection,August2012
Onthisbasisallfourprogramsprovetobecost‐effective,withlowercostpermegawatthoursavedthantheirrelevantbenchmarkcost(Table2.2).Eachprogramisdeliveringenergysavingsatalowercostthanthecostofprovidingthesameamountofelectricity.Comparingcost‐effectivenessbetweentheseprogramsgiveslimitedinsightbecauseprogramshavedifferentobjectivesandinparticulartargetdifferentcustomergroups.
Theaccuracyoftheseresultsissubjecttothereliabilityofenergysavingsestimatesasdescribedinsection2.1.1withhigherreliabilityforHPSPandEESBPwhereestimatesarebasedonverifiedsavings.
2.1.5 Markettransformationandeconomicbenefitswillbeassessed
Afullerpictureofthelongertermimpactsoftheprogramswillbeavailableby2013,withtwostudiesconductedbytheDEP.Amarkettransformationstudyhascommencedtoevaluatetheimpactoftheprogramsontheenergyefficiencyproductandservicemarkets(seesection3.7).SecondDEPiscommissioningaprojecttoestablishcost‐benefitmetricsoftheenergyefficiencyprogramsasawholefortheelectricitymarketandthestateeconomy,coveringpublicaswellasprivatecost.Itwillinvolveenergymarketandeconomy‐widemodellingandwilltransfersomeofthemodellingcapacitytoOEHatthecompletion(currentlyunderprocurement).
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
30
2.2 Achievementsandissueswithimplementation
2.2.1 Directenergysavingprogramsareadaptiveandbeingdeliveredeffectively
Thethreedirectenergysavingprograms(HPSP,EESBP,andESP)arethemostsignificantcomponentoftheprogramsandaccountfor61percentofOEHexpenditure.Theyaimtodirectlyproduceenergysavings,andusebroadlysimilarstrategiestoworkwithenergyusersintheirtargetsectors,lowincomehouseholds,smallbusinessesandlargeenergyusingsites.Eachprogramhasmethodstoassesstheparticipants’energyuseandoffersupportforimprovingtheirenergyefficiency.
HPSPandEESBPwerenewprogramsforNSWandthefirsttimelowincomehouseholdsandsmallbusinesseshadbeendirectlytargetedinthisway,whileESPwasadevelopmentofthepre‐existingSustainabilityAdvantageProgram.HPSPinparticularisaverylarge‐scaleprogramthatbeganwithrelativelyuntestedtheoriesandassumptions.HPSPisfurthercomplicatedinthatinadditiontoitsenergyefficiencyobjective,italsohasasocialequityobjectivetofocusonlowincomehouseholds,reachspecifictargetgroups(CALDandAboriginalhouseholds),andtoensuregeographicequityofaccessbymakingtheprogramavailableacrossallofNSWatalltimes.Thishashadsignificantimplicationsforprogramdelivery.
AstrengthofthedesignphasefortheseprogramswasthedevelopmentofrobustITsystemstomanagedeliveryandrecordimplementationofassessments.Eachprogramdevelopedandrefinedassessmenttoolsforusebyassessors.Theprogramsalsoestablishedrobustauditingprocesses,totacklepotentialriskstoimplementationashighlightedbytheCommonwealth’shomeinsulationprogram.
Foreachprogram,amajorachievementwasestablishinglarge‐scalecontractualarrangementswithserviceproviders,overcominginitialchallengesandcapturingalargepartoftheenergyefficiencycontractingmarket.Theprogramscontributedtotheup‐skillingofauditors/assessorsandjobcreation(theextentwillbeassessedthroughthemarkettransformationstudy,anothercomponentoftheoverallevaluation).
Challengesinimplementationincludedfindingthebestchannelstopromotetheprogram,gettingthesignalsrightforthedifferenttargetgroups,andengagingwithparticipantsinthelongerruntosupportsustainedbehaviourchange.Anotherchallengehasbeenusingdata.Programscollectedawealthofdataonimplementationandwhilesomeprogramsmadelimiteduseofthisfortheanalysisofimplementation,ithasbeenincreasinglyusedthistoguideimprovements.
Theprogramsunderwentmanyadaptationstoreachandbetterrespondtotheirtargetgroups(seechapter3)andby2012wereonmorestrategicfootings.Programshadtoexpandandrefinestaffingtoaddresstheemergingrangeofdeliverytasks.Theprogramshadtheflexiblytochangetheirsettingswithinoveralltargetsandobjectives.WhileHPSPandESPhadinitialslowuptakes,allthreeprogramshavehadtheir
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
31
timeframesextended,andareallnowontracktoreachtheirdeliverytargets.Asthevolumeofdeliveryhasincreased,efficiencyofimplementationhasimprovedovertime.
Theprogramsmadechangestomanageboththedemandforandthesupplyofenergyefficiencyservices.Allthreeprogramsshiftedfocusfromusingtheassessmenttoidentifypracticalmeasurestoimproveenergyefficiency,tosupportingtheimplementationofrecommendations,whetheritwasHPSPhouseholdersinstallingkititemsorESPbusinessesmakingdecisionsaboutinvestinginnewtechnology.EESBPfurtherrefinedtheprocesstohaveassessorstoputmorefocusonsupportingimplementationandlessondeliveringanassessmentonly,resultinginadramaticliftinbusinessesproceedingtorebate.
Datafromprogramdeliveryisbeingincreasinglyusedtoguidestrategiestotargethigherpotentialforsavings.Forexample,EESBPistargetingbusinesstypeslikebutchers,poultryfarmers,smallsupermarketsandfastfoodoutletsashighenergyusers,withapproachesarebeingputinplaceinpartnershipwithpeakindustry.EESBPisalsodevelopingindustrybenchmarkingbasedonthedatacollectedtodate.Forexampleinthedairyindustry,datafrom440assessmentshasestablishedabenchmarkofenergyuseper1,000litresofmilk.
2.2.2 Highparticipantsatisfactionandpositivestakeholderengagement
Alltheevidenceindicatesthatprogramsweregenerallywellreceivedbyparticipants.Thethreedirectenergysavingprogramshaverecordedhighlevelsofparticipantsatisfaction.HPSPmonitorssatisfactionthroughitsreportingandauditprocesses,whichfoundover95%ofhouseholdshighlysatisfiedwiththeprogram,especiallywiththefreekititemsandthetailoredassessmentsthathelpthemtosaveenergy.ForEESBPindependentsurveyresearchinMay‐June2012foundthat78percentofbusinessesweresatisfiedorverysatisfiedwiththeassessorand80percentwiththerecommendations(n=301),inlinewithsimilarfindingsin2010.SimilarlyforESP,independentsurveyresearchin2011foundparticipatingbusinessesverysatisfiedwiththeESP(80percentwithauditors,92percentwiththeESPteam).MorebroadlyapprovaloftheSavePoweradvertisingcampaignhasbeenpositive(over80percentofpeopleapprovedorstronglyapproved).
Akeyachievementofdeliveryofthedirectenergysavingprogramswasengagingexternalstakeholdersincludingparticipantsas‘multipliers’topromotetheprogramthroughtheirnetworks,andusingearlyadoptersasadvocates.Assessorswerealsoakeyassetnotjustindeliveringassessmentsbutalsoincontributingtopromotionandfurtherparticipantrecruitment.Programsbuiltthisintotheirdeliveryindifferentwayssuchasdevelopingtrainingorincludingincentivesintheirpaymentmodel.Theprogramsdevelopedstrongsupplychainrelationshipswithassessorsandotherproviderstobuildpartnerships,usingmethodssuchasforums,requiredattendanceatprogramupdates,webinarsandemailcommunication.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
32
2.2.3 Regionalfocusachieved
TheprogramshavehadasignificantregionalfocusinlinewiththeGovernment’scommitmenttosupportregionalcommunities.HPSPisaddressinganexplicittargetforgeographicequityofaccess,whileEESPandESPhaveover50%ofparticipatingbusinessesfromoutsideSydney.
2.2.4 Workingwiththegovernmentsectorhadmixedresults
ThefiveprogramsundertheenergyefficiencycomponentofNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy(EEGSP)hadvaryingsuccessinreachingthegovernmentagenciesandeffectivelyengagethemintheprogramrationale.Settingtargetswasnotsufficient.‘Outclauses’includedinthepolicy,suchas“wherepractical”or“whererelevant”meanttargetwerenotmandatory.Basedonfeedbackfromagencies,OEHstaffidentifiedthathavingaclearpolicymandate,agency‐specifictargetsandaccountabilityrequirementspossiblywithpublicreportingwouldsupportthesuccessfulimplementationofprograms.
Effectivenessofimplementationoftheprogramsvariedsignificantly:somehadsomegoodresultsliketheGovernmentRetrofitBuildingProgram,thedirectenergysavingscomponent,wherethesmallsitescomponenthadgeneratedestimatedsavingsof4,011MWhofelectricityand1,561Gjofgasleadingtoasavingsinparticipants’energybillsofover$.657million.OtherssuchastheGreenLeaseprogramdidnotproduceanyimpact.Allprogramshadcommonbarrierstoengageeffectivelywithagencies:thelackoftechnicalknowledge,timeandfinancialresourcesforauditstoapplyforthesupportoffered.
2.2.5 Awarenessandcapacityforenergyefficiencyisbeingdeveloped
Twoprogramsaddressedtheenablersandbarriersforgreaterenergyefficiency,targetingthewidercommunity,keyindustrysectorsandoccupationswhichareabletoimplementenergyefficiencyopportunities,theeducationandtrainingworkforce,andpolicymakersandprogrammanagers.Eachoftheseprogramshasbeenlargelyimplementedasintended,andsummariesareinchapter3.
TheEnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgram(EETP)usesmultiplestrategiestoimprovethecapacityoftheworkforceforenergyefficiency.AkeyfeatureoftheEETPiscross‐agencygovernancebetweenOEHandNSWDepartmentofEducationandCommunities(DEC).EETPhasdevelopedclearformalpartnershiparrangementsandwhilethepartnershipfacedsomechallengesinitsdevelopment,itisnowvaluedandsupportedbyinternalstakeholdersacrossbothagenciesandprovidesasoundplatformforsharedprogramdelivery.Industryandtrainingstakeholdersalsovaluedthepartnershiparrangementsbetweendifferentgovernmentagenciesandfoundthiscontributedtothesuccessoftheprogram.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
33
AmajorachievementofEETPhasbeenengaging5,290participantsinenergyefficiencytraining,networkingorprofessionaldevelopmentbetweenJuly2009andApril2012,including
2,695committedplacesintheVocationalEducationandTraining(VET)system 179participantsintheProfessionalDevelopmentforVETPractitioners(PD4VET)
workshops 629participantsinotherVETProfessionalDevelopment(PD)trainingor
networkingevents 1,233participantsin30IndustryPartnershipsprojects 544participantsinHigherEducationcourses
TheEnergyEfficiencyCommunityAwarenessProgram(EECAP)isacommunicationandeducationprogramtargetingthebroadcommunitytoimprovecommunityknowledge,understandingandmotivationtoactinrelationtoenergyefficiency.Itusedacomprehensive,multi‐strategyandongoingapproachthatreflectsbestpracticeinsocialmarketingtoreacharangeofdifferentaudiencesthroughmainstreamandbelow‐the‐linecommunicationscampaignsunderthe“SavePower”banner,andspecificeducationprojects.TheEECAPmassmediacampaigntargetedanoverallpopulationof5.8millionpersons(approximateNSWadultpopulation)
TheSavePowermassmediacampaigntelevisionadvertisinginitsfinalphasereachedalmosttwo‐thirdsofNSWadults(63percent),withmost(77percent)findingitconvincingandathirdfeelingmotivatedtotheactionsinthemessages.Trackingresearchdemonstratedthatapprovalofthecampaignremainedhighovertime,fromwinter2009tosummer2010:morethan80percentofpeopleapprovedorstronglyapprovedgovernmentadvertisingwithmessagesaboutsavingpower.Researchsuggeststhatitcontributedtoimprovedknowledgeofenergyefficiencyissuesandhashadaninfluenceinchangingenergyusebehaviours.Thewidereachprovidesgreatpotentialforenergysavingsfrombehaviourchangeatthisscale.
TheEECAPeffectivelytrialledarangeofothereducationalapproachestoreachdifferentsegmentsoftheNSWcommunity.InpartnershipwiththeEthnicCommunitiesCouncil,bi‐lingualeducatorsweretrainedandthendelivered57energyworkshopsdeliveredto1,044participants.Anewprogramin2012willrecruit20EnergyChampionsand50LeadersfromacrossCALDcommunitiestoencourageparticipationandactiontoreduceenergy.TheCSIRO’sEnergymarkprojectwastrialledinNSW,with112groupsand517participantstoApril2012(another19werestillinprogress).SavePowerlibrarykits(841)wereplacedwith62CentralLibraryServicesinNSW(withupto260branchlibraries)andborrowedby6,400householdsintwelvemonthswithevidenceofpositiveimpactontheirknowledgeandbehaviour.TheRetailerEngagementProjectsuccessfullyengagedmajorelectricalapplianceretailersandprovidedtrainingtostaffin142storestoassistcustomerstoconsiderenergyefficiencyintheirpurchasedecisions.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
34
2.2.6 Cross‐impactsofprogramshavebeenlimited
Theoverallstructureanddesignhasnotfocussedoncross‐programlinksorlentitselftomoreintegrateddelivery,andtherehavebeenonlylimitedcross‐programimpactsatthisstage.Thisisfurtherdiscussedinchapter4oncoordinationandgovernance.
ThedeliveryofthethreedirectenergysavingsprogramsandtheEEGSPwererelativelylinear,separateandfocussedontheirdifferenttargetgroupssectors.However,ESPandEESBPthatworkoutofthesamebranchhavecollaboratedinseveralways:recommendingbusinessestotheotherprogram,developingtechnologyandsectorreports,designingsectorapproachesthatcoverbusinessesofdifferentsizes,andutilisingthesamepanelsofserviceproviders.
Thetwocapacitybuildingprograms(EECAP,EETP)wereexpectedtosupporttheotherprogramstosomedegree(throughincreasingcommunityawareness,andbuildingtheenergyefficiencyworkforce).TheSavePowercampaignandwebsitedevelopedthroughEECAPprovidedcommonbrandingforthestrategy.EECAPmadegrantsto36councilstopromotetheHPSPandawarenessofSavePower.
Inpracticecross‐pollenisationhasbeenlimitedbythedifferenttimeframes.Forexample,long‐termimpactsofEETPontheenergyefficiencyworkforcewillbemainlydiscernibleintothefuture.TheDEPmarkettransformationstudywillassessprogresswithchangesinenergyefficiencyservicesinNSW.Forthisevaluation,verylittleifanydatawascollectedbytheprogramsontheinfluenceofEECAP(orpotentiallyEETP)ontheirparticipants.
TheNSWEnergySavingsScheme(ESS)offersasynergywiththethreedirectenergysavingprogramsandtheEEGSP,whereparticipantscanuseEnergySavingsCertificates(ESC)tofundenergyefficiencydevelopments.RecentlyeachoftheseprogramshasbeendevelopingtheseopportunitiesdirectlywithIPARTasadministratoroftheESS.However,coordinationisneededtoavoidriskssuchasinconsistentmarketsignals,oversubscription,andshortagesofcapacityfromserviceproviders.
OEHComment
ThecomplementarityreviewinformedgovernmentdecisionstomergetheEESBPandthenon‐duplicativeaspectsofEETPintoESPandtoincreaseuseoftheEnergySavingsScheme(ESS)tofundenergyefficiencyactions.
Thesedecisionsprovidethebasisformoreintegrateddeliverye.g.practicaltraininglinkedtolow‐costtoolstoaccesstheESSforspecifictechnologiesandsectors.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
35
3. Progressofindividualprograms
Thischapterassesseshowtheprogramshavebeendesignedanddelivered,theadaptationsmadetoaddressbarriersandchangingcontexts,andtheinitialevidenceofenergyefficiencyoutcomes.Thesourceistheevaluationsandreportsfromeachprogram,andinterpretiveinterviewswithprogrammanagers.
3.1 HomePowerSavingsProgram(HPSP)
3.1.1 Programdesignanddevelopment
HPSPaimstohelp220,000low‐incomehouseholdsreducetheirpoweruseandbillsbytheendofJune2014.Thefreeprogramincludesthreemaincomponents:akitofenergyefficientitems,ahomepowerassessmentandatailoredactionplanidentifyingfreeandlow‐costwaysforthehouseholdtosavepower.TheprogramismanagedbyOEH,andFieldforceisthecontractordeliveringenergyassessmentservices.
FromtheinitialpolicybriefinJune2008totheendofDecember2011,HPSPhasbeenthroughalongjourney,withchangesmadealongthewaytobetterfitcircumstancesandthetargetaudience.TheinitialpolicydesignwasverybroadanddidnotspecifyaclearstrategicframeworkforaprogramthatwasuniqueforOEHinitsobjectivesaswellasitssizewitha$63millionbudget.Asaconsequence,twoofthefiveyearsinitiallyplannedfordeliveryofthe220,000energyefficiencyassessmentswereusedtodevelopamorerobustprogramdesignandrunthreepilots.Theprogramhasalsoanequityobjectivethathassignificantimplicationsforprogramdelivery.Thisobjectivemeansnotonlyreachingspecifictargetgroups(CALDandAboriginalhouseholds),butalsoensuringgeographicequityofaccessbymakingtheprogramavailableacrossallofNSWassplitintopostcodeclusters(PCC)—specificgeographicareascreatedtomanagethedeliveryoftheprogram—atalltimes.
Inthedevelopmentphase,OEHinitiatedwhathaveproventobesomeoftheprogram’skeystrengths.Theseincluded:involvingexternalstakeholdersfromthebeginning,pavingthewayfortheirstrongengagementinthepromotionoftheprogram;developingcomprehensiveITsystems,suchastheassessmenttoolandtherelatedassessmentsdatabase(DEAS),tosupportthedeliveryofassessments;andestablishingrobustauditandreportingsystemstoensurepropermonitoringandaccountability.
Theinitialdeliverymodel,however,didnotproperlycopewithallofthechallengesraisedbytheprogramimplementationtomeettheprogramobjectives.ThemainchallengesfacedintheinitialstagesofimplementationweregeneratingenoughdemandtoreachthequantitativetargetandclarifyingresponsibilitiesformarketingandcommunicationbetweenOEHandFieldforce.TheHPSPteamdidnothavethenumbersandskillstofullysupportthepromotionoftheprogramintheinitialphase.Increased
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
36
staffingandimprovedprocesseswithFieldforcehelpedtoleveragethepromotionaleffortsofallstakeholdersthroughanewlyestablishedmarketingstrategy.
3.1.2 Deliveryandreach
AssessmentsarearrangedbyFieldforcethroughaneffectiveschedulingprocessanddeliveredbyassessorsinthefield.Assessorsareattheforefrontandthemainassetoftheprogram;theirskillsandengagementarehighlyvaluable.However,theoriginalpricingmodelestablishedthroughthetenderprocessundervaluestheirkeyroleinprogrampromotionthroughlackofclearandsufficientincentives.
ByJune2012HPSPhadcompleted115,508assessmentsor58%ofitsfinaltarget.NowthattheprogramhasbeenextendedforanotheryeartoJune2014(inthecontextofNSW2021)andwiththesuccessofthemini‐campaignsthatfocusintensivepromotiononafewpostcodeclusters(PCCs)foralimitedtimeframe,theprogramappearstobeinreachofitsambitioustarget.
UptakeinsomePCCshasbeenmoresuccessfulthanothers,butthereisnoclearpatterninthesuccessfactorsthatcouldbevalidacrossNSW.SomePCCswithsimilarcharacteristicsperformdifferently.Inthiscontext,thereisno‘one‐size‐fits‐all’approach:localpromotionalstrategiesmustplayakeyroleinsuccessfuluptake.ThesestrategiesshouldbedesignedaccordingtothemainfeaturesandchallengesofeachPCC,forexample,stallsinmallsmayworkinPCCswithahighproportionofseniors,andpartneringwithCALDcommunityorganisationsforPCCswithahighproportionofthesehouseholds.
Overall,participantsarehighlysatisfiedwiththeprogram.HPSPmonitorssatisfactionthroughreportingandauditprocesses.Fieldforceconductsamonthlypost‐assessmentphonesurveyof100randomlyselectedparticipants–inDecember2011,95percentsaidtheywereextremelysatisfiedand5percentsatisfiedwiththeservice.IABauditresultsforthelastquarterof2011found97percentreportedapositiveexperience(n=153).Participantswereespeciallypleasedwiththekititemsbecausetheywerefreebutalsobecausetheymadetheideaofsavingsconcrete,andwiththetailoredassessmentsthatwouldhelpthemtosaveenergy.Themaincriticismfromparticipantswasthattheactionplanmaynotgivearealisticviewofthechangesandsavingstheycanachieve.Anecdotalevidenceofinconsistenciesinthewayassessmentsoritemsaredeliveredindicatesariskofnegativeperceptionsandfrustrationwhennotproperlyjustified(e.g.noshowerheadinstalledforHousingNSWtenants).
Programcostsarelowerthanbudgetedwithanaveragecostperassessmentof$270predictedfortheendoftheprogramcomparedwiththe$286initiallybudgeted,reflectingtheconstantattentiongiventoefficientprogramdelivery.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
37
3.1.3 Outcomes
ByJune2012theprogramhadgeneratedanestimated31,595MWhofannualelectricitysavingsleadingtoasavingsinparticipants’electricitybillsofalmost$8.4million.Theenergysavingshavealsoresultedin32,346tonnesofavoidedCO2emissionsinoneyear(Table3‐1).Basedonthesesavingsestimatesthelevelisedcostpermegawatt‐hourcomparesverypositivelywiththebenchmarkcostinresourcesforprovidingretailelectricitytohouseholds.Takingintoaccountdifferentpersistencefactorsforsavingsfromkititemsandbehaviourchange,thecostofmegawatt‐hoursavedbyHPSPparticipantsis$138comparedto$281resourcescostforretailelectricity.
Table3‐1. HomePowerSavingsProgram–estimatedannualsavingsfromactivitiesimplementedtoJune2012
Reach Electricitysaved(MWh)pa
CO2tonnessaved Participants $savingselectricitybillspa
Participants watersavingsperyear(ML)
115,508completedassessments
31,595 32,346 $8,372,675 92.4
Source:StrategyandAnalysis,OEH
Notes:
ThesavingswerecalculatedbyapplyingthepreliminaryresultsofregressionanalysisofbillingdataundertakenbyindependentconsultantsinMay2012throughtheDEPmeasurementandverificationproject;estimatingsavingsbyassigningsavingstohouseholdsbasedonwhetherthehouseholdreceivedashowerheadornot;andassigningapersistencefactorof10yearstosavingsfromshowerheads,5yearstosavingsfromotherkitcomponentsand1yeartosavingsfrombehaviourchange
ThisestimateisconservativebecauseitadoptsthelowerestimatesofsavingsfromthedraftHPSPevaluationreport;appliesverylowpersistencefactorstosavingsfrombehaviourchange;andapplieslowerboundestimatesofpersistencefactorssavingsattributedtokititems.
Thebillsavingsusethetariffsdevelopedforthe2010‐11ClimateChangeFundannualreport($265/MWh),andusedthroughout2011‐12.
Electricitysavingsfromasampleof23,500homesweremeasuredbythebillingdataanalysisconductedwiththeDEPmeasurementandverificationprojectinMay2012.TheanalysisprovidedpreliminaryfindingsinMay2012withaveragesavingsof0.6kWhperhouseholdperday(or0.22megawatt‐hours(MWh)peryear,a4percentsaving),Thisrepresentsatotalfirstyearsavingof8979MWhfromthe41,000householdsthathadparticipatedintheprogrambyJune2011.Savingsvariedaccordingtothekititemsreceived:6percentsavingsforparticipantsthatreceivedthewholesavingkitagainst3.5percentforhouseholdersthatreceivedallitemsexceptshowerheads,whichhighlightsthesubstantialimpactofshowerheadsonenergysavings.Savingfromlightingrefitwasalsoestimatedfromthebillingdataanalysistobe0.35kWhperhouseholdperday(or2.3percentreduction).
Theseresultsareencouraginginthattheyprovedthehardwarecomponentsoftheprogrami.e.showerheadandCFLrealisedtheexpectedsavingsunderrealisticuseconditions.Forexample,theelectricitysavingfromthelargestiteminstalledbyHPSP
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
38
(efficientshowerheads)matchedthemeasuredsavingsfromSydneyWater’sefficientshowerheadretrofitprojects6.Ithighlightsthedistributionandinstallationofshowerheadsasamajorfactorforenergysavings.Oneissueisthatthemajorityofexistingparticipants,includingnon‐socialhousingtenants,arealreadyequippedwithenergyefficientshowerheads.
Furtheropportunitiesexisttoincreaseenergysavingsespeciallythroughthetipsintheactionplan,thathaveverybroadscopefromtakingshortershowerstosubstantialretrofitslikeahotwatersystem.Theevaluationrecommendedafollow‐upsurveyofparticipantstobetterunderstandtheirbehaviourandtheresultingoutcomes.HPSPisalsodevelopingastrategytoengageparticipantsinacontinuousrelationshipthatshouldbeinformedbyresearchonbehaviourchange,learningfromgoodpracticeinareaslikepreventivehealth.
3.1.4 Conclusion
HPSPhasbeenaverychallengingprogramtoimplementbasedonanambitiouspolicybriefandbothenergyefficiencyandsocialobjectives.Despiteinitialdifficultiesindefiningappropriatesettings,theprogramisontracktoreachthetargetof220,000participantsbyJune2014with115,508completedassessmentsattheendofJune2012.Theenergysavingsareencouraginggiventhelimitedpossibleimpactofthesmallkititems,andanecdotallyareconsistentwithcomparableprograms.Themainchallengeforthenextphaseoftheprogramwillbetoenhancethesavingsachievedbyparticipants,andtoensurethesustainabilityofbehaviourchange.
6SydneyWaterCorporation,InstituteforSustainableFutures(ISF),2004,‘EveryDropCounts’ResidentialRetrofits‐AnalysisofWaterSavingsStudyReport,April2004,ISFISF,2001,EvaluationoftheShellharbourResidentialRetrofitProgram:Part2(draft),June2001
OEHComment
ThecomplementarityreviewinformedgovernmentdecisionstoretainHPSPasitmetallofthecomplementarityprinciples.
TheNSWEnergyEfficiencyActionPlanincorporatesthesegovernmentdecisionsandevaluationfindings.Forexample,theevaluationshowedthatsmall,lowcostitemsdeliververifiableenergysavingsinhouseholdsofaround6%.Newmechanismsarerequiredtoenablelowincomehouseholdstoinvestinlarger,highercostitemsthatproducemoresignificantenergysaving.
Lowincomehouseholdsvalueface‐to‐faceadviceprovidedthroughenergyassessors,althougheffectivenesscanbeimprovedbybettertargetingofactionstothespecificneedsofthehouseholdandefficiencycouldbeimprovedbyuseofmarketdelivery.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
39
3.2 EnergyEfficiencyforSmallBusinessProgram(EESBP)
3.2.1 Designanddevelopment
TheEESBPwaslaunchedinFebruary2009andtargetssmallandmediumsizedbusinesses(thatuseelectricityuptoabout$20,000peryearor160megawatt‐hours;orhaveupto10fulltimestaff).The$15millionprogramhadaninitialtargetofatleast6,000smalltomediumsizedbusinessestomakeenergyefficiencyimprovements.TheEESBPwasoriginallyduetobecompletedinJune2011buthasbeenextendedtoDecember2012withanadditional$6.6millioninfunding.
TheEESBPprovidesaparticipatingbusinesswithasubsidisedenergyassessmentthatidentifieswhereelectricityisbeingused,andatailoredactionplanwithelectricityandcostsavingrecommendationsandtheinformationneededtoclaimrebates.Businessesthatimplementrecommendationswithgreaterthanatwo‐yearpaybackperiodhaveaccessmatchedfundingtocoverhalfoftheretrofitcostsforlighting,HVAC,motors,aircompressors,commercialrefrigeration,boilers,hotwatersystemsorinsulation.Fourhoursoffreesupportfromtheassessorisalsoprovidedtoassistwiththeinstallationofnewequipment.
Fromtheinitialpolicybrieftodatetheprogramhassignificantlyevolvedinresponsetochallengesemergingfromtheearlystagesoftheprogramimplementation,especiallythelowconversionratefromassessmentstorebates.Accordingtofeedbackfromprogramstaffthetimeframetodeveloptheprogramdesignwasveryshort.AprogrammanagerwashiredonlyinSeptember2008.Formativeresearchonbusinessesknowledgeandattitudesandsomepilotassessmentswereconductedtotesttheconcept.
Variousresearch,monitoringandevaluationactivitiesinformedchangestotheprogramdesign,inparticularregularmonitoringofassessmentsdata,externalauditsofservicesprovidedbyassessorsandparticipantssurveys.OEHcontractedDatabuildtoconducttwoparticipantssurvey,oneinNovember2010(230participants)andoneinJune2012(around300participants)toassessbusinesses’satisfaction,identifybarrierstoimplementrecommendationsandfinallyestimatetowhatextentdecisionstoretrofitbusinessescanbeattributedtoEESBP.Thesecondparticipants’surveyincludes
TheEnergySavingsSchemehasthepotentialtobothpartiallyfundsmallandlargeenergyefficiencyitemsandprovideabusinesscaseforthirdpartiestoconductassessmentsofhouseholds.
Energysavingsfromaone‐offbehaviourchangeactiondonotlastsotheEnergyEfficiencyActionPlanwillseeksnewwaystodeliversustainedsavingsfrombehaviourchangethroughtheEnergySavingsScheme.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
40
interviewswithprogramstakeholders(programstaff,assessors,serviceprovidersandexternalauditors).
3.2.2 Deliveryandreach
AlthoughEESBPwasoriginallyintendedtobea30monthprogram,itreacheditstargetof6,000participatingbusinessesinMay2010,only15monthsfromtheofferingofassessmentinFebruary2009.ByJune2012EESBPhad17,185registeredbusinesses,15,214ActionPlanspreparedandaround2,510retrofitsimplemented.Themainchangestotheprogramdesignhavesincefocusedonincreasingtheconversionratefromassessmentstorebate.
Changeswerealsomadeintheapproachtorecruitingbusinesses.ForreasonsofequityEESBPwasinitiallyadvertisedbyOEHandthroughcouncils.Theapproachthenmovedtoassessorsmainlyresponsiblefortheprogrampromotion,usingcommunicationmaterialprovidedbyOEH.Fixedpriceservicesprovidedbyorganisationsselectedbycompetitivetender(andplacedonaNSWPanel)meansthatassessorsareguaranteeda$600or$300assessmentforeverybusinesstheyrecruit.Thisinnovativeapproachensuresthatassessorshavea‘profitmotive’torecruitbusinessestoEESBPandithasbeenafoundationoftheoutstandingparticipationnumbers.
Duringthefirstandsubsequentyearsassessorswereofferedfurtherguidelinesandtraining.Theassessmenttoolwasrefinedonfouroccasionstoimprovethequalityofdataenteredandoffermorereportingfunctionalities.Furtherriskassessmentidentifiedadditionalrecommendations,includingcontractingoutauditstoimprovethequalityofassessments,implementedfromJanuary2011.
Programstaffidentifiedthekeychallengeasthelowerthanexpectedconversionratefromassessmenttotheimplementationof‘rebatable’recommendations.Programdatashowedatwopercentcumulativeconversionrateinmid‐2010.Afacilitationpilotwasconductedinearly2010wherebusinesseswereprovidedwithfourhoursofassistancetoimplementrecommendationsfromtheiractionplans,whichshowedanincreaseinconversionrateto51percent.Inresponse,significantchangestoprogramdesign(Phase2)weremadefromJuly2010:
reductionofassessmentscostforbusinesseswithasimplifiedone‐offfee fourhoursoffreesupporttohelpregisteredbusinessestoimplementtheaction
plan(facilitationtimepaidtoassessors) optionforbusinessestopayonly50percentoftheretrofitcostsupfront,OEH
payingtheremaining50percent 50percentconversionratetargetforassessorsbeforebeingallocatedmore
businessestoassess.
AnewpanelofassessorswascontractedinAugust2010toalignwiththeserequirements,especiallyhavingassessorsthathadrelationshipswithsupplierssotheycouldcoordinatemoreeffectivelytheretrofitcomponent.Thosechangesappeartohave
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
41
significantlyimprovedtheconversionratewhichprogressivelyincreasedtoaround30percentinearly2011anddidnotfallbelow50percentfromAugust2011.
Sincethattimetherehasbeenanimprovementintheconversionratesasaresultoftheprogram.Therecentindependentsurveyofparticipants(Databuild,June2012,n=301)examinedthisindetail.Itfoundthat93%ofbusinesseshadatleastpartiallyimplementedoneormorerecommendationofanytypeinbothphasesoftheprogram,dominatedbythehighlevelofactionfornocost/lowcostrecommendations.Theproportionofbusinessestakingnocost/lowcostactionshasfallenfrom93percentinPhase1to84percentinPhase2butthisshortfallhasbeenmadeupbyincreasedactionintheothertwocategories:
Justundertwothirdsofbusinesses(62%)haveatleastpartlyimplementedrebateeligiblerecommendationscomparedto40percentinPhase1.
47percentofbusinessesreceivingworthwhilelowcostrecommendationsatleastpartiallyimplementedoneormoreoftheseinPhase2comparedto37percentinPhase1.
Thestudyassessedtheattributionoftheseactionstotheprogramandfoundthatwhilethishasnotincreasedoverall,theproportionthatisfullyattributedhasincreasedfrom64to83percent.Fornocost/lowcostrecommendationsattributionoverallhasincreasedfrom55to78percent.Forworthwhilelowcostrecommendationsthelevelofattributionhasnotchanged.
Participantsatisfactionhasbeenhigh.IndependentsurveyresearchbyDatabuildinMay‐June2012foundthat78percentofbusinessesweresatisfiedorverysatisfiedwiththeassessorand80percentwiththerecommendations(n=301).Thisisinlinewithsimilarfindingsforphase1oftheprograminNovember2010(n=230)whereatleast90percentofrespondentsweresatisfiedwitheachaspectoftheprogram(theassessor,theactionplanrecommendationsandthefollow‐upsupport).The2010researchshowedthatthemajorityofinterviewedbusinesses(68percent)weremotivatedtotakepartintheprogrambythepotentialenergycostsavings.Barrierstoimplementingrecommendationsoccurredinsomecaseswheretheywerenotseenasappropriatebythebusinessesthemselves,orthelackofup‐frontcapitalformorecostlymeasures.Asaresultprogramchangesweremadetoimprovetheappropriatenessofrecommendationsintheactionplananddevelopbettercommunicationtobusinessesaboutfinancialassistance.
Auditsofassessmentsconductedsincemid‐2011havealsocontributedtoimprovequalityandaccuracyofenergyassessmentsaswellasverifyingretrofits.ToendofMarch2012,367assessmentsacross33assessorcompanieshavebeenauditedandfindingsprovidedtoassessorstoadoptcorrectingmeasuresifneeded.Theoverallqualityofassessmentsimprovedfrom‘average(70)’to‘aboveaverage(75)’onthe100pointsauditscale.Interestinglytheassistanceoflocalcouncils(inlessthan5%ofcases)improvedthequalityofthefacilitationforimplementingrecommendations.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
42
EESBPisincreasinglyusingquantitativeanalysisofthedataonparticipatingbusinessestoidentifypatternsofuptakeandconversionacrossindustries,sizeorlocationthatmayguidestrategiestotargetbusinesseswithhigherpotentialforsavings.Thisisunderwaywithkeybusinesstypeslikebutchers,poultryfarmers,smallsupermarketsandfastfoodoutlets.Inthesecaseshighenergyusersarebeingtargetedforspecialistaction,suchascoolroomsinbutchersandotherformsofrefrigerationinsupermarkets.Inthecaseofpoultryfarmers,commonopportunitiesarebeingidentified,withimplementationsupporttofocusontheseopportunities.Inallcases,theselocationandsectorwideapproachesarebeingputinplaceinpartnershipwithindustryassociationssuchasNSWFarmersortheAustralianMeatIndustryCouncil,andfranchisessuchasFoodworks.
Toencouragebestpractice,industrybenchmarkingisbeingestablishedbasedontheEESBPdatacollectedtodate.Inthedairyindustryforexample,datafrom440assessmentsacrossNSWhasenabledtheestablishmentofabenchmarkofenergyuseper1,000litresofmilk.Thisenablesdairyfarmerstocomparetheirenergyefficiencyagainstfarmerswithsimilarsizedherd.Anecdotalfeedbacksuggestsitisprovingtobeanimportantmotivatorforaction.
3.2.3 Outcomes
ByJune2012theprogramhadgeneratedanestimated37,400MWhofannualelectricitysavingsleadingtoasavingsinparticipantselectricitybillsofover$9.1million.Theenergysavingshavealsoresultedin39,640tonnesofavoidedCO2emissions(Table3.2).ConsideringtheprogramcoststoendofJune2012,theprogramisprovingtobeverycost‐effectivewithacostpermegawatthoursavedbyprogramparticipantsat$66comparedtoabenchmarkcostof$245(costinresourcesforretailelectricitytosmallbusinesses).
Table3‐2. EnergyEfficiencyforSmallBusinessProgram–estimatedsavingsforoneyearfromactivitiesimplementedtoJune2012
Reach Electricity saved(MWh)pa
CO2tonnessaved
Participants$savingselectricitybillspa
17,185businessesregistered15,214ActionPlans
37,396 39,640 $9,124,627
Source:StrategyandAnalysis,OEH
Notes:Thesavingswerecalculatedbyextrapolatingtheknownrateofrebateclaims(16.5%ofbusinesses)andaveragesavingsperrebate(5.2MWhperbusiness)tothetotalnumberofparticipantbusinesses;andestimatingimplementationofnon‐rebateactionsusingtheratesfromthe2012Databuildsurveyandextrapolatingtheaveragesavingsperbusiness(5MWh)fromnon‐rebateactionstothetotalnumberofparticipantbusinesses(32%ofworthwhilelowcostactionsarefullyimplementedduetotheinterventionofEESBP,basedon37%ofworthwhilelowcostactionsfullyimplemented,with87%ofthosecanbeattributedpartiallyorfullytotheEESBProgram).Thisestimateisconservativebecausethe2012Databuildsurveyshowsthatbusinesseshaveonlyclaimedrebatesfor51%ofimplementedrebatableactions.Thissuggeststhatthesavingsfromtherebatescouldbeashighas200%ofthoseclaimed.Thebillsavingsusethetariffsdevelopedforthe2010‐11ClimateChangeFundannualreport($244/MWh),andusedthroughout2011‐12.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
43
EESBPistakingpartina‘before‐and‐after’projectcoordinatedbyDEPtomeasureactualsavingsachievedbyparticipants.Thelatestresults(August2012)providedfindingsbasedon331projectsthatweresubjecttoM&Vanalysis.Onaverage5.64megawatt‐houror9.3percentenergysavingswereachievedfromeachproject.Thisanalysisalsoidentifiedsignificantdifferencesintheamountofsavingsaccordingtothetechnology:lightingretrofitsresultedinthebiggestsaving(13percent)comparedtorefrigerationthathadthelowest(3.2percent).BecauseofthebroadbasistheseestimatescanbeconsideredasrepresentativeforallEESBPparticipants.TheyconfirmpreviousestimatesofsavingsthatwereusedtoinformthereviewofdeemedsavingsaspresentedinTable3‐2.
Anecdotalevidencefromprogramstaffshowsthatbetterresultsinimplementingrecommendationsareachievedforsometypesofbusinesseslikehairdressers,cafes,dairiesorfranchises.
Feedbackfromprogramstakeholderssuggeststhatotherimpactsarebeingachievedforparticipatingbusinesses,includingincreasedknowledgeandexpertiseintheenergyefficiencyarea,butthesearemoredifficulttomeasure.
3.2.4 Conclusion
EESBPhasdevelopedaneffectiveapproachforworkingwiththesmallbusinesssector.ItbeganasanewprogramforNSWandthefirsttimesmallbusinesseshadbeendirectlytargetedinthisway.Itsreachhasexceededexpectationswith17,185registeredbusinessestoendofJune2012comparedwiththeinitialtargetof6,000participants,suggestingthatithasreachedbeyondtheearlyadopters.Initsearlystagesakeychallengewasthelowconversionratefromparticipationtorebatesforretrofits.However,significantchangestotheprogramdesignhadaverypositiveimpactonthecumulativeconversionratethatwentfrom2percentofregisteredbusinessesrequestingrebatesasattheendofJune2010to15percenttotheendofJune2012,withevidenceofcost‐effectiveenergysavings.Theprogramhasprovedtobeeffectiveandcost‐effectiveinworkingwiththesmallbusinesssector,withthepotentialforgeneratingsimilarresultsonalargerscale.
OEHComment
ThecomplementarityreviewinformedgovernmentdecisionstoreformtheEESBPbymergingitwiththeESPandceasingrebatesforenergyefficiencyactions.ThereviewemphasisedgreateruseoftheESSasafinancialincentiveforsmallbusinessestoimplementenergyefficiencyactions.
TheNSWEnergyEfficiencyActionPlanincorporatesthesedecisionsandevaluationfindings.Forexample,implementationratesincreasedramaticallywhenauditsarefollowedupwithtechnicalsupportandfinancialincentives.TheEnergySavingsSchemewillneedsimplemethodstostreamlineaccessforserviceproviderstosmallbusinesses,
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
44
3.3 EnergySaverProgram(ESP)
3.3.1 Designanddevelopment
TheESPtargetsmediumandlargesitesusingbetween160megawatts‐hourto10GWhperannuminelectricity.ItispositionedbetweentheSmallBusinessProgram(EESB)thattargetsbusinessesthatusebelow160megawatts‐hour(wheremostelectricitymeterscannotrecordintervaldata)andlargesitesusingabove10GWhthatareobligedtotakepartintheNSWEnergySavingsActionPlan(ESAP)program.
TheESPhadanoriginaltargetof800siteauditsbyJune2013,nowextendedtoJune2014.TheESPbudgetis$20millionoverthefiveyears2008/09to2013/14.
TheESPprovidessubsidisedenergyauditsandfacilitationtoguide,promoteandpreparebusinesscasesforinvestmentinenergyefficiency.Italsosetupapanelofenergyefficiencyauditorswhorecommendupgradesandimprovedprocedures,identifypotentialEnergySavingSchemefundingandsupportbusinessestoactontherecommendations.
Overtheperiodtodate,thestoryoftheESPhasbeenacontinuousadaptationoftheinitialsettingstoaddresschallengeswithreach,delivery,timelinessandturningauditsintoenergysavings.ThishasbeeninformedbyprogramexperienceandresearchcommissionedbyESPonotherenergyauditingprograms(InstituteforRuralFutures2011),andontheengagementofbusinessesintheESP(Databuild2011).
3.3.2 Reachanddelivery
Theprogrambeganinearly2009andhadaslowstart‐up,butbyJune2012itreportedtrackingwelltotargetwith366auditscompleted,approximately50percentatregionalorruralsites(Table1).Programexpenditureof$11.1millionwasonforecastfortheJune2014completion.
assite‐specificengineeringmeasurementofenergysavingsisnotfeasibleforsmallbusinesses.
Basedonthe15,000assessmentsundertakenbyJune2012,thetypesofenergyusageandopportunitiesforenergyefficiencywithinsectorsareknowntoberelativelyconsistent.Hence,identificationofopportunitiesandcalculationofsavingscanbestreamlined.
Akeyfindingisthatverifiedbillsavingsacrossalargenumberofsmallbusinessesdeliverequivalentorgreaterpeakdemandsavings.Futureprogramscanbuildonthisfindingtoimprovealignmentbetweenenergyefficiencyprogramsandmanagementofpeakdemand.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
45
Table3‐3. ESPuptakeandimplementationovertimetoendofJune2012
2009 2010 2011 2012 *
AuditsCompleted Yearly 14 82 119 151
Cumulative 14 96 215 366
Organisationsimplementedoneormoreprojects
Yearly 6 40 15 ‐
Cumulative 6 46 61 ‐
Implementationrate(implementedsavings/totalestimatedsavings)
Yearly 5.5% 11.3% 4.6% ‐
Cumulative 0.3% 5.0% 7.5% ‐
Source:OEH,ESPmonitoringdatabase,June2012;*toendofJune2012
AnearlyadaptationwastheeasingofrequirementsforEnergySaverparticipantstoundertakethewiderSustainabilityAdvantageProgram,whichincludedreplacingthe$2,000‐$3,000joiningfeewitha$500feeatsign‐up.In2010eligibilitywaswidenedtoincludegovernmentsites.Toaddressbarrierstoimplementingenergyefficiencyprojects,theESPaddedImplementationSupportin2010(below).Marketingmaterialswereconstantlyimprovedandgoodrelationsbuiltwithindustrybodies.Oneofthelargestdelayswithanenergyauditisthecollectionofenergydata,soinearly2010ESPaddeda‘kick‐off’meeting,facilitatedbytheenergyauditor,andmadethisapaymentmilestonefortheauditor.
Amajoradaptationwasmovingthefocusfromtargetingbusinessesingeneraltoalsoincludingasectortransformationapproachfor1)selectedtechnologies(lighting,HVACandindustrialrefrigeration,andin2012multi‐generationandsub‐metering);and2)keyindustrysectors(agedcare,registeredclubs,hotels,foodprocessors,schools).Thisallowsmorespecificmarketing,targetinghighenergyusers,andspecialisedauditsforsimilarbusinessesortechnologies.In2012ESPisfurtherfocussingtechnologyprojectsbyofferingtrainingontechnologicalsolutions,andhasreportedahighdemand.
In2011,ESPformedacollaborationwithCityofSydneyfortheSmartGreenApartmentsproject(target30audits)andthemediumbusinesspilot(12audits–tobeevaluated2012).
OnthesupplysidetheESPhasalmostdoubledtheauditpanelto46organisationswithover300individualauditors,asignificantproportionofenergyauditingconsultantsinNSW.ESPleveragesofftheauditorsthroughgrantingexclusiverightswhereanauditorbringsabusinesstotheprogram,providingpricingisconsistentwiththeirtenderapplicationandinlinewiththeaveragepriceforsimilaraudits.Businessesrecruitedbyauditorsnowaccountsforthemajorityofnewaudits.
Accordingtothe2011Databuildsurvey,mostparticipatingbusinesseshavebeensatisfiedtoverysatisfiedwiththeESPprocess(auditors80percent,ESPteam92percent,n=38‐39).Thisstudyalsofoundthatwhilebusinessessawsubstantialbarriersto
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
46
investinginenergyefficiencyprojects,theimportantfeaturesofESPwere:(i)credibilityofagovernmentprogram(ii)subsidisedaudits;and(iii)theresultingbusinesscasethatwasneededtosecureabudgetforinvestment.
Siteswithinthetargetgroupcanvaryinenergyusebyafactoroveraround60,sowhilethenumberofauditsisaKeyPerformanceIndicator(KPI)itdoesnotreflectthedegreeofuptake,themegawatt‐hourvalueofenergyassessedorlikelysavings.TheESPcanprovidemoredetaileddatabyindustrysectorsonreachanddeliveryfordifferentprojecttypesfromtheESPdatabase,butnofurtheranalysishasbeencontractedyet.
3.3.3 Outcomes
ByJune2012theprogramhadgeneratedestimatedannualsavingsof45,432MWhofelectricityand186,155Gjofgasleadingtoasavingsinparticipantsenergybillsofover$10.3million.Theenergysavingshavealsoresultedin60,367tonnesofavoidedCO2emissionsforoneyear(Table3.4).
Table3‐4. EnergySaverProgram–estimatedsavingsforoneyearfromactivitiesimplementedtoJune2012
Reach Electricitysaved
(MWh)pa
Gassaved(Gj)pa
CO2tonnessaved
Participants$savingselectricitybillspa
Participants$savingsgasbillspa
Participants$total
savingspa
386entitiesaudited
45,432 186,155 60,357 $7,996,068 $2,345,552 $10,341,620
Source:StrategyandAnalysis,OEH
Notes:Thesavingswerecalculatingby:identifyingacohortof113auditsthatwerecompletedmorethan18monthsearlier(datasetextracted19June2012)andhavereportedatleastonceweretakenasconservativelyindicativeofimplementationundertheprogram.Includingbusinessesthatreportednoimplementation,thisgroupachievedreportedaverageelectricitysavingsof5%andnaturalgassavingsof6%againsttheirbaselines(note:the6%figureincludesbusinessesthathadnonaturalgasuse,thiswasdonetoallowthefiguretobeappliedtoallbusinessesthathadparticipated).Theaveragebaselineforallauditscompletedmorethan6monthsearlierwastakentobetheaveragebaselineforallparticipants(averagebaselinesare2,401MWhand8,477GJ).The5%and6%savingswereextrapolatedtoallbusinessesthathavereceivedanauditundertheprogram(366at30June2012).Thisfigureisconservativebecause:theimplementationrateistakenfromearlierintheprogramfrombusinessesthatdidnotprovidemultiplereports.Itdoesnotreflecttheimpactofimplementationsupport,otherimprovementstoauditlayout,auditmanagementprocessesandbusinesscasequality,ortheintroductionofCommonwealthfundingforimplementation.Thebillsavingsusethetariffsdevelopedforthe2010‐11ClimateChangeFundannualreport(naturalgas,business‐$12.60/GJ;electricity,businesseswithmediumsizebaselines‐$176/MWh).
TheESPevaluationreportusesdatafromthecurrentprojectsandassumesa45percentimplementationratetoestimatesavingsinelectricityuseof122,400megawatts‐hourperyearacrossallthebusinesses,equivalenttosavingsoverthe10yearlifeoftheimplementedprojectsof1,224,000megawatts‐hour,leadingtoacost‐effectivenessof$16.33permegawatt‐hourofenergysaved.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
47
CasestudiesdemonstratethattheESPapproachcandeliversubstantialenergysavings.TheESPevaluationreportdescribesthesuccessoftheIndustrialRefrigerationTechnologyProjectwheresavingsupto70percentenergyconsumptionforrefrigerationwereidentifiedatvarioussites.Forexampletwolargeprojects(TamburlaineWinesandSwireColdStorage)aresavingatotalofover$123,500peryear.SimilarlytheLightingTechnologyProjecthasalreadyledtotwomajorbusinesses(SydneyMasonicCentre&Diageo)committingover$500,000incapitalinvestmentforlightingprojectswhichwillsaveover$275,000annually.TheM&VcasestudyofthelightingretrofitprojectinSydneyMasonicCentreisintheAppendix2.
Itisclearthattheprogramhasdevelopedamodelthatcanachievesubstantialenergysavingsandcutenergybillsatparticipants’sites.Butatthisstagethereisalowreportedrateofimplementationafteranaudit(10percentatMarch2012,13percentatJune2012),comparedwiththeexpectedrateofbetween40and50percentachievedoncompletionbyotherauditingprograms(ISF2011).Onefactorisgreatersupportforimplementation,whichtheESPaddressedbyaddingupto30hoursfortheauditteamstoassistbusinessesinimplementingtheauditrecommendations.
Moreimportantlythelowrateislargelyanartefactofreportingduetothelagtimeforenergyefficiencyprojectswhichtakebetween6‐24monthsormoretoimplement(forexampleprojectsundertheNSWEnergySavingActionPlanstook3yearsformaximumimplementationofauditopportunities).Aroundhalfofthe250completedESPauditshadonlyfinishedwithin6monthsofthe2012ESPreport.TheESPexpectsthattheimplementationratewillrisedramaticallyoverthecoming12monthsasbusinessesactontheexistingaudits,anditisontracktoreachthe40‐50percentachievedbyotherprograms.Reportingonimplementationisarelatedchallenge.Participantscommittoreportprogresspost‐auditbutitisavoluntaryself‐reportwithnoexternalverificationofcostsorsavings.OEHcreatedaRelationshipOfficerrolewithintheteaminmid‐2011tofillinthisgap,andgatherpost‐auditinformation.The95organisationswhohavesubmittedreports12monthsafterthe‘sign‐off’oftheirauditrevealaverageannualsavingsof$45,800.Thisisexpectedtoriseconsiderablyoverthenext1‐2yearsasthetimeandcapitalisfoundtoimplementadditionalcost‐effectiveenergyefficiencymeasures.
ESPisalsodevelopingmorerobustdataonsavingsusingM&V,withapilotinearly2011at10sites.Inmid‐2012ESPusedtheOEHM&Vguideandanindependentspecialistat10‐20sitestoconfirmimplementation,actualenergyandcostsavings,andcomparerealsavingswithinitialfindingsintheauditreports.TheexpectedfindingsshouldallowESPtomoreaccuratelyextrapolatefindingsacrossparticipatingbusinessesandsub‐sectors.
AsignificantpositiveimpactoftheESPhasbeenpositioningNSWbusinessestoattractfundingforfurtherenergyefficiencyactivities.ForexampleinJune2012fourESPparticipantswongrantsinthefirstroundoftheCommonwealthCleanTechnologyInvestmentProgram(CTIP),receiving86%ofthenationalallocation,andafurther20sitesareapplying.AccordingtoAusIndustryakeyfactorwasthecomprehensiveESPauditthatcoveredtheCTIPcriteriaanddeterminedthebestoptions.Anotherexample
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
48
islinkingeachsitetoanACPwithintheEnergySavingsSchemetogeneratingEnergySavingCertificates(ESCs)forbusinesseswhichimplementprojects.
3.3.4 Conclusion
TheESPprogramhasbeenoperatingeffectivelydespiteaslowstart‐up;growthandprogramparticipationhasbeensteadyandestimatesindicatethattheprogramisontracktocost‐effectivelymeettargets.Manychangeshavebeenmadetomaketheprogrammorestrategicandtargeted.
Itisclearthattheprogramhasacost‐effectivemodelthatcanachievesubstantialenergysavingsandcutparticipants’energybills.Theextentofsavingsislikelytobeclearerasmorebusinessesimplementauditrecommendationsovertime,andtheprogrammeasuresandreportsonthis.TheincreaseduseofM&VshouldprovidefirmevidenceofenergyandcostsavingsandallowESPtomoreaccuratelyextrapolatefindingsacrossparticipatingbusinessesandsub‐sectors.
OEHComment
ThecomplementarityreviewinformedgovernmentdecisionstoreformtheESPbyintegratingitwiththeEESBPandthenon‐duplicativecomponentsoftheEETP.ThereviewalsoemphasisedgreateruseoftheESSasafinancialincentiveforallbusinessestoimplementenergyefficiencyactions.
TheNSWEnergyEfficiencyActionPlanincorporatesthesedecisionsandevaluationfindings.Someofthesearesimilartothefindingsforsmallbusiness,forexample,theconsistencyofenergysavingsopportunitieswithinbusinesssectorsandtheopportunitytostreamlineaccesstotheEnergySavingsScheme.Streamlinedmethodsalsoprovideanopportunitytoovercomethedelaysinprojectimplementationfollowingstand‐aloneauditswithoutfinancialincentives.
Animportantdifferencetothesmallbusinesssectoristhatagreateruseofmeasurementandverification(M&V)isrequiredtoprovideevidenceofenergysavingsandanongoingbusinesscaseforinvestmentinenergyefficiency.
3.4 EnergyefficiencycomponentofNSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy(EEGSP)
3.4.1 Designanddevelopment
TheEEGSPisdifferentfromotherenergyefficiencyprogramsinthatitisnotaprogrambutapolicycoveringarangeofprogramsthatsettargetsforNSWGovernmentagenciesfor:greenhousegasemissionsfrombuildingenergyuse,water,environmentalperformanceofbuildings,cleanergovernmentfleet,waste,recyclingandpurchasing.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
49
FiveprogramsrelatingtoenergyconsumptionwereconsideredtobepartoftheoverarchingEnergyEfficiencyStrategy:
TheSchoolsEnergyEfficiencyprogram NABERSratingofofficebuilding Greenleaseschedulesfortenantedbuildings TreasuryLoanFund–SustainableGovernmentInvestmentProgram(TLF‐SGIP) GovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgram(GBRP)
Whileindividualprogramsweredevelopedtoaddressspecificpurposesanddifferinsettings,targetgroup,timeframeandrequirements,theyhadsomecommonfeaturesandweregroupedundertheEEGSPumbrellawithcoordinationandfacilitationthroughOEH.AllfiveprogramsaretargetingNSWGovernmentagenciesthatwererequiredtomeetwholeofgovernmenttargetstoreducegreenhousegasemissions.OEHprovidedexperttechnicaladvicetogovernmentagencies,tohelpthemtakecosteffectiveactionstomeetthetargets.
ThissynthesisoffindingsforEEGSPprogramsismainlybasedonaself‐assessmentreportdraftedinMarch2012byOEH.Whileinformedbystakeholders’feedbackandmonitoringdataavailableforeachprogramthismainlyreflectsaninternalperspectiveonthestrengthsandweaknesses.Therewouldbebenefitinamorecomprehensiveindependentevaluationthatcouldbuildupexistingmonitoringandevaluationinformationexistingatprogramlevel.
3.4.2 Progressofindividualprograms
SchoolsEnergyEfficiencyProgram
TheSchoolsEnergyEfficiencyProgramprovidesfundingtohelpreducegreenhousegasemissionsfromNSWpublicschools(primaryandsecondary).The$20millionprogramisopento225NSWpublicschoolsuntil2012.Theprogramofferslightingretrofitforeachparticipatingschoolandupto$18,000perschoolforstudentstoselectandfundtheirownenergyefficiencyprojectsthroughtheStudentSavingsFund.7ImplementationiscoordinatedbytheDepartmentofEducationandCommunities(DEC)withtheassistanceofOEH.Deliveryisconductedthroughsub‐contractors.
ThedesignisaturnkeyprogramtoaddresstheageinglightinginfrastructureinNSWGovernmentschools,particularlyforlightfittingswithlampsnolongermanufactured.ParticipatingschoolswerechosenbytheDEC,basedontheirneedforalightingupgrade,thoughthosealreadyearmarkedforupgradesthroughforwardcapitalprogramswereexcluded.
7http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/grants/ssep.htm
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
50
AccordingtoOEHfeedback,theprogramwasdeliveredin‐timeandonbudget.Atotalof126schoolswillhavereceivedlightingretrofitsbyJune2012,whichrepresentshalfoftargetedschools.Deliveryfacedsomedifficulties,especiallyinrelationtotheinstallationofnewlights.Installationhadtooccurduringschoolholidaysandatthebeginningoftheprogramitwasnotpossibletousethefirstsetofholidaysbecauseanumberofapprovalshadtobesoughtbeforehand.Forthefinalyear(2012)theprogrammadesuretoobtainstakeholderapprovalearlierthanfundingapprovalinordertobeabletostartinstallationduringthefirstschoolholidays.Feedbackfromparticipatingschoolssuggeststhatparticipantsaresatisfiedwiththeprogram.OnebarrierwaswhereimplementationoverlappedwiththeCommonwealth’sBuildingtheEducationRevolutionprogramwhichresultedinsomesitesbeingpartiallyretrofittedbyeachprogram.ImprovedcommunicationbetweenCommonwealthandStateprogramdeliverersreducedthisoverlap.
Intermsofoutcomes,estimatedannualsavingsacrossthe126schoolsare$1,330,000offpowerbills(schoolsareonlyinuse200outof365daysayear,whichincreasestheprojectpaybackperiod),6,150megawatts‐hourofelectricityandmorethan6,500tonnesofcarbonpollution.Howevernoevidenceisavailableonactualsavings.
OEHComment
TheSchoolsEnergyEfficiencyProgramisnowcompleted.ResultsfromitwillinformtheDepartmentofEducationandCommunitiesontheviabilityoffutureschoolenergyefficiencyprojectstobefundedundertheSGIPorthroughcapitalexpenditure.
NABERSratingsofofficebuildings
TheEEGSPsetcleartargetsinrelationtoenvironmentalperformanceofbuildingsforgovernmentownedortenantedofficebuildingsover1000m²to
obtainaNABERSratingby31December2008, achieveandmaintainaNABERSratingof4.5starsforenergyandwaterby1July
2011,wherecosteffective,and whereneworrefurbished,achieveandmaintain2011targetsfrom18monthsof
thefirstoccupancy,wherecost‐effective.
OEHidentifiedofficesrequiringNABERSrating(NationalAustralianBuiltEnvironmentRatingSystem)buteachagencywasresponsibleforobtainingtheirNABERSratings.Tomeetthosetargets,agencieswereofferedsupport.TheStatePropertyAuthority(SPA)establishedapaneloftwoNABERSassessorsthroughatender,whichwasaccessibletoallthesites,andOEHprovidedadviceandfacilitation.AccordingtoOEHfeedback,effortsremainedfocusedonhavingallthesitesobtainaNABERSrating.HoweverattheendDecember2011only77percentofthesitehaddonesodespitecontinuousimprovementfrom2007/08(seefiguresacrossfinancialyearsuntilendofJune2011in
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
51
Table3‐5).OEHstaffidentifiedseveralreasonsthatcouldexplaintheslowuptakeinrequiredsitestoobtainratings.
DelaysintheinitialreleaseoftheEEGSPincludingtheNABERStargetmeantthatthedeadlinewasunrealistic.
AnumberofagenciesinitiallybelievedthatSPAwasgoingtoorganisetheirratings.Clearandearlycommunicationdirectlywiththesitesrequiredtoobtainaratingwouldhavemitigatedthis.
Table3‐5. NABERSratingsobtainedfrom2007/08to2010/11
NABERSratings 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Numberofratings‐cumulative 35 66 75 100
ProportionofeligiblesitesNABERSrated 18% 40% 45% 69%
Source:OEH,NABERSextract,June2012
OEHidentifiedsomekeysuccessfactorsthatcontributedtoimprovetheuptakeaccordingtothesitescharacteristics.
LocalsitecontactshaveproventobethemosteffectiveatfacilitatingNABERSratingsforsmallagencies
CentralcontactswerethekeycontactforlargeagenciessuchasNSWPolice Letterstoexecutivesofagencieswhohadfailedtoobtainratingsresultedinan
increaseinactivity.
WhenconsideringthesecondtargetthatshouldhavebeenachievedbyJuly2011,only37percentofthe100ratedsiteshadmetorexceededthe4.5startargetasofDecember2011.
Thereisverylittleevidenceofoutcomesintermsofreducedenergyconsumption.Theratingmayhaveprovidedmotivationforeachsitetoreducetheirenergyconsumptionbutanecdotalevidencesuggeststhattheratingalonedoesn’tprovideapathwayforimprovement.
GreenLeaseSchedules(GLS)fortenantedbuildings
TheEEGSPincludedanothertargetrelatedtoenvironmentalperformance:allgovernmenttenantedbuildingshadtoincludeaGreenLeaseScheduleinallnewornegotiatedleasesorwhenexercisingaleaseoption,wherepractical.AGreenLeaseScheduleisaformalcommitmenttoenergyefficiencyandsetsaminimumongoingoperationalbuildingenergyperformancestandardmeasuredbytheNABERS.
TheStatePropertyAuthority(SPA)hadresponsibilityundertheEEGSPto‘implement’GreenLeaseSchedulesatthosetenanciesinwhichSPAwastheheadlessee.OthertenantedsiteswereabletoaccesstheGreenLeaseschedule.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
52
AtMarch2012,noGreenLeaseScheduleshadbeenattachedtotheleaseofaNSWGovernmenttenant.OEHstaffidentifiedsomekeyreasonsforthis.
AgaindelaysintheinitialreleaseoftheEEGSPincludingNABERStargetsmeantthatthedeadlinewassignificantlycondensed.ThiswasalsoduetothedevelopmentofaNationalGreenLeaseScheduleatthesametime.SPAdelayedthereleaseoftheNSWscheduletoensureitalignedwiththeNationalGreenLeaseSchedule,whichintheendhadlowerrequirementsthantheNSWschedule.
TheGreenLeasesufferedfromthecompetinggoalofreducingrentsforcontractmanagers:becausebuildingownersperceivedGLSasasourceofadditionalcoststheydroppeditearlyinleasenegotiations.
Inlate2011,SPAsentalettertoOEHsayingthatbycreatingtheGreenLeaseScheduleithadfulfilleditscommitmentto‘implement’,althoughnoGreenLeaseScheduleshadbeenattachedtoNSWGovernmentleases.
AccordingtoOEHstaffanimportantareaforimprovementforthisprogramisthecommunicationandcollaborationwiththeSPAthatcouldhavebeenbettertoensureanappropriateprogramdesignandeffectiveimplementation.
TreasuryLoanFund–SustainableGovernmentInvestmentProgram(TLF‐SGIP)
TheTreasuryLoanFundhasbeendesignedtohelpagenciestomeettheup‐frontcostsofimplementingenergyefficiencymeasures.Itprovidesgovernmentagenciesaccesstofundingtoimplementcosteffectiveenergyandwaterefficiencyupgradeswithborrowingsfromthefundrepaidwiththesavingsgenerated.Eligibleagenciesarebudgetdependentagencieswithbuildingupgradeprojectstotalling$10,000‐$500,000($1,000,000forNSWHealth).
OEHprovidessupporttoagenciesintheformoftechnicalassistancetoidentifycosteffectiveactions,auditsandbusinesscasedevelopment.OEHorganisesworkshopsandone‐on‐oneassistancetoagencies.Acontractorwasalsoengagedin2009tomaketheapplicationformeasiertofollow.TLF‐SGIPapplicationsroseslightlyfrom2010‐11asshownintheFigure3‐1below.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
53
Figure3‐1. TreasuryLoanFunduptake
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998‐99 1999‐00 2000‐01 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12(so far)
2012‐13
$ m
illions
Funds drawn from the Treasury Loan Fund for retrofits (as at 1 May 2012)
Actual $(Million)
Projected
Source:OEH,TLFexpenditure,May2012
Feedbackfromagenciesidentifiedtwomainbarrierstoloantakeup:thelackoftechnicalknowledge(engineeringandfinancial)andtimeorstafftopreparethecomplexapplicationform,butespeciallythelackofresourcestoidentifyappropriateopportunitiestobefunded.ToaddressthisOEHdevelopedtheGovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgramfromJuly2010tosupportthisfirststepforagencies.UptakeoftheTLF‐SGIPbyNSWGovernmentagenciesforbuildingretrofitswentfromlessthan$84,000overJuly2007‐June2010toover$2.5millionin2011/12asaresultoftheGBRP.AccordingtofinancialdatafromprojectsthatwereatanadvancedstageofplanninginMay2012itisexpectedthatagencieswilldraw$23.9millionfromthefundin2012/13(Figure3‐1).
OEHstaffidentifiedanotherkeyrequirementtoimprovetheuptakeoftheTreasuryLoanFund:theagencyfinanceapprovalchainhastobeactivatedasearlyaspossibletoensurethatprojectsidentifiedinafinancialyearcanprogressinthatsameyear.
GovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgram(GBRP)
In2010,theMinisterfortheEnvironmentapprovedthe2yearGovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgram(GBRP).Theprogramhastwostreams,onethatcoversauditcostsforlargesitesontheprovisiontheagencyagreestoapplytoTLFfunding;andtheotherthatcoverbothauditandimplementationcostsforsmallfrontlineservicedeliverysites(thathasbeenpilotedintheLowerHunter,IllawarraandCircularQuayprecinctuntiltheendofJune2012).Underthelargesitesstream,OEHcoordinatesandfundsanaudittoidentifycost‐effectiveprojects.TheresultingauditreportprovidestheagencywiththespecificationsandbusinesscaserequiredintheTLF‐SGIPapplicationform.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
54
Facingtheriskthatparticipatingagenciesmaynotprogresstoimplementation,OEHlearnedfromtheexperienceoftheWaterandEnergySavingActionPlan(WESAP)thatwascompulsoryforlargeenergyandwaterconsumersinNSWfrom2007.FifteenNSWagencieswererequiredtodevelopaWESAP;theyidentified77cost‐effectiveactionsbutonly8wereimplemented.Themainreasonwasthattherewasnorequirementtoimplementthoseactionsandannualreportingrequirementscouldstillbemetbyreportingnoactivity.ToavoidsuchresultsOEHchangedtheinitialprogramdesigntorequiretheagencytocommittoapplyforaTLF–SGIPloantoreceivetheaudit.Theprogramalsoinitiallyunderestimatedthetimerequiredforagencyapprovalswhichresultedinsomedelaysincommencingworksandimplementation.Thisprocessisnowlaunchedasearlyaspossible.
AsattheendofMarch2012,112smallsiteshadbeenaudited,butsevenauditsdidnotprogresstoapprovedretrofits;implementationhadcommencedorbeencompletedin7;20applicationsforlargesiteswerealsointheapplicationprocessfortheTreasuryLoanFundatthattime.Feedbackfromagencyrepresentativesisverypositive:theyappreciatedtheexpertiseandfundingprovidedtoundertakebuildingretrofitsandultimatelysavetheorganisationmoney.
Keysuccessfactorsofthisprogramhavebeentoprovideagencieswithaturnkeyprograminordertocompensatetheirlackoftechnicalknowledge,timeandbudgetforauditsaswellastofocusonlyonasmallnumberofactionsofferingopportunitiesforgreatersavings.Identifyingthekeysitecontacthasalsogreatlycontributedtosuccessfulimplementationastheyhavethesiteknowledgesuchasmaintenanceandcontractrequirements.
TheGovernmentRetrofitProgramistheonlyEEGSPprogramthathasresultsavailableonactualsavingsachievedbyparticipantsandverifiedthroughsbeforeandaftermeasurement.MeasurementandVerification(M&V)hasbeenappliedtotwoprojects,chillerretrofitinWestmeadHospitalandlightingretrofitinSydneyOperaHouse.SavingsfortheWestmeadHospitalrepresented12.4percentreductioninchilledwaterplantenergyuseanda3.6percentreductionoftotalsiteelectricityuse.TotalelectricitysavingsfortheSydneyOperaHousewasestimatedintherangeof3to5percentoverallbyaddingupsavingsachievedfromsixspecificareas.TheCentralPassageisoneoftheseareasandithassaved32percentinelectricityconsumptionasconfirmedintheM&Vtrial. WhiletheexamplesarenotrepresentativeofallGBRPprojects,theyprovideanindicationofsavingsparticipatingagenciescanachieve.
ByJune2012thesmallsitescomponentoftheGovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgramhadgeneratedestimatedsavingsof4,011MWhofelectricityand1,561Gjofgasleadingtoasavingsinparticipants’energybillsofover$.657million.Theenergysavingshavealsoresultedin4,354tonnesofavoidedCO2emissions(Table3.6).
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
55
Table3‐6. GovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgram–smallsitescomponent‐estimatedsavingsforoneyearfromactivitiesimplementedtoJune2012
Reach Electricitysaved(MWh)pa
Gassaved(Gj)pa
CO2tonnessaved
Participants$savingselectricitybillspa
Participants$savingsgasbillspa
Participants$totalsavingspa
105sites,567projects
4,011 1,561 4,354 $637,749 $19,669 $657,418
Source:StrategyandAnalysis,OEH,fromprogramdataprovided22June2012
Notes:Thesavingswerecalculatedforthe105governmentownedsitesreceivedasiteassessmentanddetailedspecificationsforworksandpotentialenergysavings.Siteassessmentsidentified567energysavingmeasures.Implementationisunderway/expectedforallidentifiedmeasures.Thebillsavingsusethetariffsdevelopedforthe2010‐11ClimateChangeFundannualreport(naturalgas,government‐$12.60/GJ;electricity,government‐$159/MWh).
3.4.3 Overalllearnings
Fromtheperspectiveofcoordinatorandfacilitator,OEHstaffidentifiedoveralllessonsfromtheimplementationoftheGovernmentSustainabilityPolicyasanensembleofenergyefficiencyprogramstargetinggovernmentagencies.
Thedesignofthefiveprogramsunderthisumbrellaprovedtobenotequallyappropriatetoreachthegovernmentagenciesandeffectivelyengagethemintheprogramrationale.Settingtargetswasnotsufficient.‘Outclauses’includedinthepolicy,suchas“wherepractical”or“whererelevant”meanstargetwerenotmandatory.Basedonfeedbackfromagencies,OEHstaffidentifiedthathavingaclearpolicymandate,agency‐specifictargetsandaccountabilityrequirementspossiblywithpublicreportingwouldsupportthesuccessfulimplementationofprograms.
Effectivenessofimplementationoftheprogramsvariedsignificantly:somehadsomegoodresultsliketheGovernmentRetrofitBuildingProgramwhilesomeothersdidnotproduceanyimpactliketheGreenLeaseprogram.Allprogramshadcommonbarrierstoengageeffectivelywithagencies:thelackoftechnicalknowledge,timeandfinancialresourcesforauditstoapplyforthesupportoffered.Somestrategiesprovedtobemoresuccessful.
Targetandengagewiththerightcontactsoneachsiteandwithinthefinancialchainhasbeenakeyrequirementforprogram’suptake.
Getearlyapprovalfromdecisionmakersateachlevelisessentialforsmoothdelivery.Theapprovalprocessescantakealongtimeandshouldbeanticipatedintheprogramdeliverytimeframe.
EEGSPmanagementidentifiedanotherkeyareaforimprovement:EEGSPprogramswouldbenefitfrombettercoordinationandalignmentwithotherNSWenergyefficiencyprograms,forexampletheGreenSkillsTrainingProgram,tobuildcapacityofagencies
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
56
staffortheEnergySavingsSchemetominimisetheprogram’supfrontcostsforparticipatingagencies.
OEHComment
ThecomplementarityreviewinformedgovernmentdecisionstoretaintheEEGSP.TheGBRPandSchoolEnergyEfficiencyProgramwereceasedasplannedin2012.
TheNSWEnergyEfficiencyActionPlanincorporatesthesedecisionsandevaluationfindings.
Thefindingshighlightedbarriersthatmayslowuptakeofgovernmentenergyefficiencyprojects.Forinstance,whiletheTreasuryLoanFundcanprovidefinanceforgovernmentenergyefficiencyprojects,itonlyappliestoasmallnumberofagencies,hasrulesthatforceagenciestorepayloansbeforeprojectsareimplemented,andhascomplexadministrativeprocedures.
Thefindingsindicatedthatuptakeofenergyefficiencywithingovernmentcouldbeimprovedthroughearlycommunicationbetweengovernmentagenciestoensureinternalapprovalsareobtainedandthatthereisexecutivebuy‐inforprojects.Existingprogramsthathavenomandatedtargetsorpenaltiesalsosufferfromsignificantnon‐compliance,indicatingthatagenciesneedacleardriverforprojectimplementation.
AswiththeEnergySaverProgram,thefindingsindicatedthatthereisaneedforstrongmeasurementandverificationofenergyefficiencyprojectsinthegovernmentsectortoestablishevidenceoffinancialbenefitforongoingparticipation.
3.5 EnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgram(EETP)
3.5.1 Designanddevelopment
TheEETPisjointlymanagedandimplementedbyOEHandtheNSWDepartmentofEducationandCommunities(DEC).TheEETPhasabudgetof$20millionacrossfiveyearsandcommencedinJuly2009.Theprogramaimsatbuildingtheknowledgeandskillsofkeytradespeopleandprofessionalswhofacilitateanddeliverenergyefficiencypractices,productsandservicesinNSW.LiketheCommunityAwarenessprogram,EETPisalsointendedtosupportthedeliveryofotherNSWenergyefficiencyprogramsinensuringthattheappropriateskilledworkforcewillbeavailabletodeliverthoseprogramsintothefuture.
Theprogramwasdesignedtoaddressskillsshortagesthatcouldcontributetobottlenecksinthemarketforenergyefficiencyservicesandcreateupwardcostpressuresandsupplydelays,obstructingtheuptakeofenergyefficiencymeasuresinNSW.EETPwasintendedtotacklefurtherkeyissues.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
57
Thecurrenttrainingofferforenergyefficiencyisfragmented,andsupplyanddemandaremismatched.
Energyefficiencytrainingcontentisoftennotindustry‐relevantorreachingqualitystandards.
Industryawarenessofandsupportfornewmarketopportunitiesassociatedwithenergyefficiencyarelimited.
ToaddresssuchissuesEETPtargetedprioritysectors,rolesandprofessionsasidentifiedbynationalresearch(NationalCentreforSustainability,2009,MatchingEnergyEfficiencyPolicyandTrainingandJobs).Theseindustrysectors,rolesandprofessionshavebeenconfirmedaskeytoimprovingenergyefficiency(TheAllenConsultingGroup,2012ReviewofEnergyEfficiencySkillsDemandsandTrainingProvisionacrosstheTradesandProfessions.Asaresultofthenationalresearchandconsultation,theEnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgramisstructuredaroundfivecomponents:
– VocationalEducationandTraining(VET)– ProfessionalDevelopmentforVETeducatorsandtrainers– IndustryPartnershipProjects– HigherEducationprojects– ResearchandEvaluation.
TheprogramcontractedUrbistoconductacomprehensiveindependentevaluationoverthreeyears.Yearoneevaluationreport(July2011)focusedonthedevelopmentoftheevaluationframeworkandtheassessmentofEETPpartnershiparrangements.Yeartwoevaluationreport(draftversioninJune2012)presentsfindingsandrecommendationsabouttheprogramdeliveryandoutcomestodate.Themainmethodsusedwerestrategicworkshopswithprogramstaff,interviewswithexternalstakeholders,documentaryreviewandanalysisofdataprovidedbyOEHandDEC.
3.5.2 Deliveryandreach
ThefirstninemonthsoftheprograminvolveddevelopingthepartnershiparrangementbetweenOEHandDECasasoundplatformforsharedprogramdelivery.InthisinitialstageEETPexperiencedchallenges,especiallyinrelationtodifferencesbetweenthetwomanagingagenciesinprogramfocusandoperatingphilosophy.Asanexample,DEC’scentralmandateistosupportaccreditedtrainingthatleadstorecognisedqualifications,whilstOEHhassoughttotargetdirecttrainingtomeetbusinessrequirements.ExtensivediscussionsandnegotiationsresultedinasharedunderstandingandagreedprioritiesfortheProgram.
Internalstakeholdersnowagreethatthepartnershiparrangementhascontributedkeystrengthsoftheprogram:combinedcapability,expertiseandnetworks,formalstructuretofocusopportunities,resourcesharingandcapacitybuilding,strengthenedrelationshipsandunderstandingacrossagencies,aswellaseconomicandstrategic
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
58
benefitssuchasgoodwillandcooperationingovernment,oraccesstofundingandresourcesthatwouldnothavebeenavailableotherwise.
ByApril2012stakeholdersreportedthattheprogramhadincreasedthecapacityoftheeducationsectortoprovideenergyefficiencytrainingtoprioritysectors,tradesandprofessions.Fundingsupporthasfacilitatedthedevelopmentofasuiteoftrainingcoursesandmaterials,andtheProfessionalDevelopmentcomponenthastargetedskillsdevelopmentfortheeducationworkforcetodeliverthetraining.Theprogramassistedinthedevelopmentofanumberofpilotcoursesandtrainingresourcesthathavebeensuccessfullytakenupbyindustryassociations,individualcompanies/employersandthevocationaltrainingsectorforongoingdeliveryand/orintegrationintoexistingtrainingcourses.Throughwell‐designeddisseminationandknowledge‐sharingstrategies,includingplacingontheOEHwebsite,EETPresourceshavebecomeavailableacrossindustrygroups,individualcompanies/employers,RegisteredTrainingOrganisations(RTO)andpractitionersnotdirectlyinvolvedinpilottraining.
EETPmanagementnotedthelargeeffortneededtoensurehighlevelsofquality,butlimitedcontrolonimplementation.Thebiggestimpactonthequalityofcourseswasthelevelofinvolvementandexpertisebyindustryandtrainersandenergyefficiencycontentspecialistandindustry/businessconsultation.Thisvariedstronglyfromlowtoveryhighcommitment,expertiseandresources.
BetweenJuly2009andApril2012,atotalof5,290participantshadundertakenenergyefficiencytraining,networkingorprofessionaldevelopment,including:
2,695committedplacesintheVETsystem 179participantsinthePD4VETworkshops 629participantsinotherVETPDtrainingornetworkingevents 1,233participantsin30IndustryPartnershipsprojects 544participantsinHigherEducationcourses
ThefollowingtablegivesanoverviewofthereportedlevelofinterestanddemandforthetrainingsandcoursesassummarisedintheEETPyear2evaluation.
Table3‐7. Reporteddemandanduptakecomparedtoexpectations
Component Reporteddemandanduptake
VET Demandappearstohavegrownstronglyinanumberofcourses,suchascarbonaccounting(105coursesfromJuly2009toApril2012)andcarbonmanagement(499courses).
Instabilityinregulatorydriversandgovernmentprogramshasreducedtheongoinglevelofdemandinothercourses(suchassolarPV).
Spendandenrolmentdatashowsstronggrowthoverthelasttwoyears,withDECmanagingtoexhaustthefullbudgetfortrainingsubsidies.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
59
Component Reporteddemandanduptake
VETPD DemandforsubsidedplacesintheVocationalGraduateCertificateatSwinburnehasoutnumberedtheavailableplaces.
UptakeanduseofthePD4VETresourcesbypractitionersandRTOsmaynothavebeenasstrongasanticipated.
IndustryPartnerships
Thelevelofindustryandemployeeinterestinthetrainingprojectshasvaried. Anumberofprojectsreportedhighlevelsofindustryengagementand
participation. Othersindicatedthatfillingthecoursehadprovedchallenging,includingcases
wherethosewhoinitiallysignedupbutwereunabletoattendduetoworkcommitments.
HigherEducation
AnumberoftheengineeringPDcourseshavebeendelayedduetoinsufficientenrolments.
Demandhasbeenhighestamongundergraduateandpostgraduatestudents(evenforcoursesdesignedprimarilyforworkingengineers)
Thefirstsetofaccountingcoursespilotedhavehadreasonablystronguptake,withflexibledeliverymodes(interactiveseminars)reportedtobemorepopularthanthelongercourse.
Source:Urbis,EvaluationoftheEnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgram–Year2Annualreport,Draftreport,June2012
Theevaluationidentifiedthetimerequiredtobeawayfromworkasthemainbarrierforuptakeandparticipation.Instabilityintheregulatoryenvironmentandothergovernmentprogramshasalsoreducedthedemandinsomesectors.Programstaffandprojectpartnersdevelopedstrategiestoaddressthosechallenges,especiallyindevelopingflexiblemodesoftraininglikeonlinemodulesorthroughcloseengagementwiththeindustrytoalignthecoursestotheexistingindustrycultureandtrainingmechanisms,e.g.accreditedtrainingorContinuingProfessionalDevelopment(CPD)requirements.
Theprogramstartedwithabroadapproachandatthisinterimstageislookingtohavemorecontroloverthedeliverymechanismsandmorestrategicfocuswiththestakeholdersthathavebeeninvolvedintheprogram.
3.5.3 Outcomes
TheevaluationfoundthattheIndustryPartnershipandUniversityProjectshavecontributedtowardsastructuralchangewithinindustryandtheeducationsectorwithrespecttoawarenessandunderstandingoftheopportunitiespresentedbyenergyefficiency.FeedbackfromparticipantsontherelevanceandqualityoftrainingdeliveredwaslargelypositiveforIndustryPartnershipprojectsandmixedforVETcourses.
Themajorityofparticipantsforbothtypesofprojectsintendtoapplytheirlearninginpractice.AcommonlynotedcoretrainingoutcomeacrossallEETPcomponentsisparticipants’increasedconfidencetoengagewithenergyefficiencyandcapacitytoworkwithenergyefficiencytechnicalexpertstoensureadviceisappliedappropriatelytotheirbusiness.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
60
SomebarrierstotheapplicationoflearningacrossVETandIndustryPartnershipshavebeenidentified:lackofmanagementsupportintheformofcommitmentfromseniorlevelsoftheorganisationandprioritisationofenergyefficiencyinitiatives;timeandresourcinglimitations;challengestodemonstratethebusinesscaseforchange;andashort‐horizonforbusinessdecision‐making.Possiblemechanismstoaddresssuchbarriershavebeenidentifiedsuchasensuringsufficientcustomisationtothebusinesscontext,includingworkplaceprojectsinthetraining,involvingdirectlythemanagementinthetraining,continuingasystemsapproachtotraining(targetingbothtechnicalskillanddecision‐makingrequirements),andprovidingend‐to‐endtrainingandimplementationsupport.
TheevaluationdidnotreportontheextentthatEETPhasatthisstagebeenabletosupportadevelopmentofaskilledworkforceinvolvedthedeliveryofotherNSWenergyefficiencyprogramsasittakesyearstoincreaseskillsandseetheresultsintheworkforce.
Atthisstage,whilemanyofthenewtrainingcourseswereonlydeliveredinthepast18months,thereissomeevidencethatanumberoftrainingparticipantshavedemonstratedchangedorganisationalpractices,operationsand/ortechnologiesandsomewereabletoestimateormeasureresultingenergysavings.ForexampleoneIndustryPartnershipsprojectproponentsaid‘We’reintheprocessofmeasuringsavings–nominallyexpectthesetobearound$1,200amonthbutmightactuallyrealisealotmorethanthis.We’rethenhopingwecanexpandthistootherplantsaroundNSW.’
Otherexamplesofsavingshavebeendocumentedincasestudies,forexampletheGPTtrainingandthatconductedforCommercialKitchens(ontheOEHwebsite).Outcomesfrommorerecentprojectshavehighlightedtheenergyefficiencyinitiativesundertakenandtheresultingenergyreductionse.g.UniversityofWollongongreportedsavingalmost$200,000perannumfromanITshutdownprocedure;CompassHousingeducationfortenantsandstaffledtolightingupgradesandtenantsinstallingshadesandfans;andtheCasinoClubreportedpowerusagedownbyalmost20%asaresultofmonitoringappliances.Theseorganisationsreportedthatthetrainingwascrucialtotheseequipmentandbehaviourchanges.
3.5.4 Conclusion
Theprogram’spartnershipanditsstrategicapproachtostakeholderengagementhaveputenergyefficiencyontheskillsdevelopmentagendaoftheindustry.Basedonastrongframeworkforcollaborationbetweengovernment,industryandtheeducationsector,EETPhascontributedtostrengthenthequalityandrelevanceofenergyefficiencytrainingforprioritysectors.Participantsreportedthattrainingwasuseful,relevanttotheirroleandcontributedtogrowingconfidenceandengagementwithenergyefficiency.Thereisemergingevidenceofenergysavingsfromthetrainingprojects.Thelongertermsavingsfromchangedpracticesresultingfromthetrainingwillonlybecomediscernibleinfutureyears.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
61
OEHComment
ThecomplementarityreviewinformedthegovernmentdecisiontoceasethevocationaltrainingelementsoftheEETPasitduplicatedfundingfromtheCommonwealthforenergyefficiencyvocationaltrainingaspartoftheCleanEnergyFuturepackage.
Thenon‐duplicativecomponentsoftheEETPhavebeenmergedintotheESP.
3.6 EnergyEfficiencyCommunityAwarenessProgram(EECAP)
3.6.1 Designanddevelopment
TheEECAPisacommunicationandeducationprogramtargetingthebroadcommunitytoimprovecommunityknowledge,understandingandmotivationtoactinrelationtoenergyefficiency.InitialresearchindicatedthatNSWconsumerslackedinformationonhowtheirchoicesoftechnologiesandbehavioursrelatetotheirelectricityuse.TheprogramwasdesignedtoaddressthisandtosupportthebroaderobjectivesoftheEnergyEfficiencyStrategyusingacomprehensive,multi‐strategyandongoingapproachthatreflectsbestpracticeinsocialmarketing.ThedesigndrewupontheexperienceofpreviousNSWGovernmentbehaviourchangeprograms,suchasroadsafety,healthandwaste.Itaimedtoreacharangeofdifferentaudiencesincludinghouseholds,culturallyandlinguisticallydiversecommunities,smallbusinesses,andyoungpeople,andundertookformativeresearchtounderstandtheirneedsandwantsandhowbesttopitchthebehaviourchangemessage.Thecampaigndesignalsohadtoaccountforanumberofissues:startingfromvirtuallyazerobase(therehadbeennopriormasseducationrelatingtoenergyefficiency);energyusewascomplexandseasonal(requiringtwophasesperyear);sustainedandregularengagementwasneededtobegintoestablishanewsocialnorm.
This$15millionprogramhadthreemaincomponentswithmultipleprojects:
Massmediacommunication(80percentofthebudget)usingtheSavePowermass‐mediaadvertisingcampaign(blackballoons)throughavarietyofcommunicationchannels(bothaboveandbelowtheline)andpublicrelations,sponsorship,onlinemediaandpublicengagementactivities.Thewebsitewasdesignedtobeanongoinginformationhubforenergyefficiencytips,apledgetool,e‐news,SMStipssubscriptionandaportaltootherenergyefficiencyinitiativessuchastheEESBP,EETPandEnergySaverandHPSP.
Educationandtraining(15percent)coveredthreekeyinitiatives:
– TheNSWEnergymarkproject,apartnershipwithCSIROthatgatheredsmallgroupsofhouseholderseachweekinpeople’shomestolearnabouttheenvironmentalimpactsofenergyusage,andhowtobemoreenergyefficientintheirlives.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
62
– TheSavePowerlibrarykitswhichenabledborrowerstoself‐assesstheirhouseholdenergyuse,costsandgreenhousegasproduction.
– TheRetailerEngagementProject(REP),apartnershipwithmajorapplianceretailersthatincludedtrainingoftheirsalesstaffandprovisionofpointofsaleinformationtoassistcustomerstoincludeconsiderationofenergyefficiencyintheirpurchasingdecisionmakingprocesses
Researchandevaluation(5percent).Thiscomponentwascriticaltoinformtheinitialprogramdesign.Italsocontributedtorefinetheprogramdeliveryalongtheway,inparticularthemassmediacampaignthroughtrackingresearch.
UndertheresearchandevaluationcomponentOEHcontractedInstinctandReasontoconductcomprehensivemonitoringandtrackingresearchforthemassmediacampaign.In2011OEHcommissionedDatabuildtoundertakeacomprehensiveevaluationofalltheprogramcomponentswiththebroadaimofascertainingtheimpactofEECAPontheknowledge,attitudesandbehavioursoftheNSWcommunity,drawinguponthetrackingresearch.TheDatabuildreportisnotcompleteatthetimeofwriting,however,preliminaryfindingshavebeenobtainedandarepresentedbelow.ThemethodsbeingusedbyDatabuildinthereportincludeatelephonesurveyof200NSWresidentsidentifiedthroughthetrackingresearchandanonlinefollow‐upsurvey.OEHalsohadthefinalreportbytheCSIROonNSWEnergymarkaswellasinternalevaluationreportsfortheSavePowerKitsprojectandtheRetailEngagementProject.
ThepreliminaryresultsindicatethattherationaleforEECAPandtheholisticprogramlogicwasclear,logicalandalignedwithgoodpracticesdrawinguponpreviousexperienceandextensiveresearch.The$15millionbudgetoverthreeyearswasconsideredcomparablewithbudgetsforsimilarprograms(e.g.$5‐6millionannuallyfortheVictorianGovernment’s‘blackballoons’energyefficiencycampaign),althoughresourceswereoneofthekeychallengesinthedeliveryoftheprogram.WhilethereweresomeissuesinmanagingpartnersandtheCSIROworkfortheEnergymarkproject,EECAPengagedeffectivelywithaverybroadrangeofstakeholders.EECAPprogrammanagersmentionedtwodifficultieswithimplementation,firstlythedifferenttimeframesofthecomponentsandsecondlythedualprogramstructurewithtwomanagers,oneforprogramsupportandoneforcommunityeducation.
3.6.2 Reachanddelivery
Themass‐mediacampaignachievedahighlevelofreach.Ittargetedanoverallpopulationof5.8millionpersons(approximateNSWadultpopulation),andoverthefivecampaignsthetrackingresearchestimatedover15millionadultviewingsoftheadvertisingontelevisionatleastonce(dependingonthephase,between35and53percentofthosewhosawitsaytheysawtheadvertisingsixormoretimes).Atthefinalmeasure(postsummer,2010/11),3.7millionadultsor63percentoftheNSWpopulationhadseentheSavePoweradontelevision,andofthese,44percentsawitsixormoretimes.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
63
TheSavePowerwebsitealsoachievedasubstantiallevelofexposure.Inthreeyearsithadover246,750uniquevisitors(72%fromNSW);over1millionpagesviewed(1,040,267)andover3,500SavePowerwebsitemembers;650SMSsubscribersforseasonaltips;andover3,800subscriberstoinformationupdates.Over9,000actionswerepromisedfrom819individuals,withpotentialtosave$966,600offpowerbillsand4,935tonnesofcarbon.EECAPreportthatitwasrankedinthetop10ofenvironmentalwebsitesinJanuary2011.
Inadditiontothemainstreamadvertising,thecampaignachievedarangeofmediaexposureandengagement,throughfeaturesinconsumerlifestyleandhomepublicationsandradio;theSavePowerChallengepartnershipwithNewsLimited;directengagementwithconsumersthroughe‐news,SMSandothermedia;distributionofpromotionaltools;grantsto36councilstopromotetheHPSPandawarenessofSavePower;andgrantstoninecouncilstopromotethemessagewithafocusonAboriginalandCALDcommunities.
AnillustrationofoutreachunderSavePoweristheworkthroughtheSustainableLivingProgram,apartnershipwiththeEthnicCommunitiesCouncil.15bi‐lingualeducatorsreceivedtrainingonthekit,and13receivedthe1½daystrainingprogram,resultingin57energyworkshopsdeliveredto1044participants.Anewresource(flipchart)isbeingfinalisedwithSavePowerinformationandmessagingdesignedforeducators,councilstaff,andmigrantcentrestaff.Anewprogramin2012willrecruit20EnergyChampionsand50LeadersfromacrossCALDcommunitiestoencourageparticipationandactiontoreduceenergy.
TheEnergymarkprojectwasaNSWtrialofanationalprogramdevelopedandmanagedbytheCSIRO.SinceactivecommencementinNovember2010,112convenorscompletedgroups(withanother19convenorsandgroupsstillinprogress).Withanaverageoffivepeopleineachgroup,517participantshadcompletedagroupbyApril2012.TheNSWEnergymarkFinalReport(CSIRO,June1012)notedthattheprogramdisproportionatelyattractedmiddle‐aged,university‐educated,professionalwomen,andmostparticipantsalreadyheldpositiveattitudestowardstheenvironment,typicalofAustraliansingeneral.Evenwiththismorealignedandreceptivegroup,theprogramwasabletoachieveenergysavings.
ThereachofotherEECAPprojectswerealsoveryencouraging.SavePowerlibrarykits(841)wereplacedwith62CentralLibraryServicesinNSW(withupto260branchlibraries).Over6,400householdsborrowedakitinthetwelvemonthsbetweenMarch2011andMarch2012,and2,200peopleattendedalocallibraryworkshoponhowtouseit.Theborrowersweresatisfiedwiththekits(96percentoftherespondentstotheonlineborrowersurvey)andtherewasevidenceofpositiveimpactontheirknowledgeandbehaviour(e.g.75percentoftherespondentssaidthatsinceborrowingthekittheywillnowpurchaseanelectricalappliancethatuseslesspower,comparedwithonly31%beforeusingthekit).
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
64
TheRetailerEngagementProjecthassuccessfullyengagedmajorelectricalapplianceretailers(HarveyNorman,TheGoodGuys,DavidJones,Myer).Ithasbeeninthefieldfor18monthsandprovidedtrainingtostaffin142storesthrough1,282storevisits,resultingin78percentofstorestafftrainedand92percentsatisfactionfromstoremanagers.
3.6.3 Outcomes
PeoplereachedbythemassmediaandeducationalcomponentsofEECAPhavereportedraisedawareness,positiveresponsesandinmanycasesincreasesintheirenergysavingbehaviours.
Trackingresearchdemonstratedthatapprovalofthecampaignremainedhighovertime,fromwinter2009tosummer2010:morethan80percentofpeopleapprovedorstronglyapprovedtheNSWGovernmentadvertisingwithmessagesaboutsavingpower.Thecampaignappearstohavesomesuccessinraisingawarenessofissuesinvolvingenvironmentalconcernsaboutenergyuseandmotivatingbehaviourchange.
Thosewhohaveseenthecampaignaremorelikelytohavechangedbehaviourtosaveelectricitycomparedtothosewhohavenotseenthecampaign(46percentversus36percent).TrackingresearchfoundsignificantincreasesinmanyofthebehavioursportrayedintheSavePowercampaigncomparedwiththe2009benchmarks(suchasinstallingthickcurtains,blindsorshutterstoreduceheat;checkingthefridgeisworkingefficiently).Atthefinalmeasure(Postsummer,2010/11),almosttwo‐thirdsofNSWadults(63percent)hadseenthetelevisionadvertisement,with77percentfindingit“very”or“fairly”convincing,andathirdfeelingmotivatedtotheenergysavingactionsinthemessages.
Atthesametimeissuesaroundenergyefficiencyandparticularlyrisingelectricitycostswerefeaturingwidelyinthemedia.Toexaminetheextentbehaviourchangesrelatedtothecampaign,theDatabuildtelephonesurvey(N=200)examinedtheattributionofthechangedbehaviour,andfoundthatthecampaignhadaninfluenceuponhalfofthosewhohavetakenactionsincethecampaignandrecallit.RespondentstendedtociteSavePowerinitiativesasbeingastronginfluenceonbehaviourrelatedtoelectricalappliancesandairconditioning,lesssowashingclothes(mostrespondentswhocarriedoutthesebehaviourssaidtheyhadalwaysdoneso).
Thetrackingresearchalsosuggeststhatthebehaviourchangesaresustainedovertimeandthatthecampaignisbuildingsocialnormsaroundenergyefficiency.Notonlydopeopleperceivetheirownmindfulnessaboutelectricityuseincreasingbuttheynoteothersaroundthemarealsobecomingmoremindfulovertime.Almostsixinten(58%)claimtheywere‘very’or‘extremely’mindfulabouttheirelectricityuse(inpost‐summer2010/11measure).
WhilethefocusofEECAPwaswiderawarenessraisingandcapacitytoleadtochangingbehavioursandlongertermenergysavings,anumberofcomponentsindicateddirect
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
65
impactsonenergysavings.InparticulartheEnergymarkprogramappearedtoinducepositivechangesinindividualbehaviour,andreportedreductionsincarbonfootprint,andelectricityconsumptioncomparedtopre‐projectlevels.PreliminarybillinganalysisbyCSIROindicatesanaveragereductioninelectricityuseof12.3percent.OEHisintheprocesstoobtainmorecomprehensivedatatosubstantiatetheestimates.CSIROestimatesabroaderreductionincarbonemissionsof6.4%onaverageforelectricityandnaturalgasuse(combined),petrolanddieselconsumption(combined),extentofairtravel,useofwoodfires,householdexpenditureonconsumergoodsandservices,andfoodconsumption.InterestinglythereportnotesthatamongparticipantsexposedtotheEnergymarkexperience,eventhosewhocameoutoftheprocesswithoutenhancedunderstandingandsupportofsustainability,generallyreducedtheiremissionsandelectricityconsumptionasmuchasthosewhose‘green’preferencesandknowledgehadbeengreatlyaugmented.ThisfindinghasbeenreplicatedinanumberofdifferentEnergymarktrials.
TheSavePowercampaignmayalsohaveimpactedontheparticipantsintheotherenergyefficiencyprograms.Theremaybescopetoexplorethiscollectingfeedbackfromparticipants;andthroughanalysingthepatternofhitsonpagesrelatedtospecificprogramsonthewebsite.
3.6.4 Conclusion
TheEECAPsuccessfullyimplementedacomprehensive,multi‐strategyandongoingsocialmarketingcampaignoverthreeyears.InitsfinalphasetheSavePowertelevisionadvertisingreachedalmosttwo‐thirdsofNSWadults(63percent),withmost(77percent)findingitconvincingandathirdfeelingmotivatedtotheactionsinthemessages.ApprovaloftheadvertisingcampaignhasbeenpositiveamongtheNSWpopulationandresearchsuggeststhatitcontributedtoimproveknowledgeofenergyefficiencyissuesaswellassomeinfluenceinchangingenergyusebehaviours.Thepowerofthemassmediacampaigncomesfromthewidereachwhichoffersgreatpotentialforenergysavingsfrombehaviourchangesatthisscale.
TheEECAPeffectivelytrialledarangeofotherapproachestoreachdifferentaudiences.Theexperienceofdelivery,thetrackingresearchandtheevaluationsareprovidingOEHwithasubstantialevidencebasetoinformfuturesocialmarketinginthisarea.
OEHComment
TheEECAPwasceasedinJune2012asplanned.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
66
3.7 DataandEvaluationProgram(DEP)
3.7.1 Designanddevelopment
In2009OEHestablishedtheDataandEvaluationProgram(DEP)toreportonenergysavingsandbenefitsoftheprogramsandinformfuturedirections.TheDEPdirectlyaddressesthelackofreliableinformationonenergysavingsfromenergyefficiencyprogramsthatwerehighlightedbythe2007OwenInquiryintoElectricitySupplyinNSW.The$2millionDEPisground‐breakinginAustralia—nootherjurisdictionhasappliedsuchaclearcommitmenttoenergyefficiencymeasures.
Thedesigncamefromthe2010EvaluationFrameworkandProjectPlanfortheEESbutnowaimsmorebroadlytoinformpolicyanddecisionmakingforthefutureprogramsincludingtheEnergyEfficiencyActionPlan(EEAP).Ithasfourmainelementsthatareinlinewithbestpracticeinthearea(seeboxattheendofthissectionontheevaluationofenergyefficiencyinCalifornia):
Measurementandverificationofactualenergysavings Collectionofprogramdeliveryinformationandprogramevaluations(processand
impact) Assessmentofmarketandeconomicbenefits Integration,interpretationandreporting.
3.7.2 Measurementandverificationofactualenergysavings
Thisprojectaimstoprovidereliablemeasuresofenergysavingsdirectlyachievedthroughhome,businessandgovernmentprogramsbyusingevidenceofactualelectricityusetocomplementestimatesbasedondeemedsavings.8Currentfindingsonenergysavingsforprogramsareinprevioussections.
Whenthesedirectenergysavingsprogramsweredesignedtheexpectedsavingswereusuallydeemedusingengineeringcalculationsandassumptionsabouttheextentofuptakeandeffectivenessoftheuptakeinrealisingsavings.Deemedsavingsare
8Thebiggestchallengeinevaluatingenergyefficiencyprogramsisalackofdirectmeasurement.Energysavingsarewhatdidnothappen,butenergyconsumptionisactuallywhatismeasured.Thedifferencebetweenenergyconsumptionandwhatenergyconsumptionwouldhavebeenhadenergyefficiencymeasuresnotbeeninstalledprovidesameasureofenergysavings.Savingscomputationthereforeinvolvescomparingmeasuredenergydataandacalculationof“adjustments”toconvertbothmeasurementstothesamesetofoperatingconditions(i.e.abaseline).Bothmeasurementandadjustmentprocessesintroduceuncertainty.Theseprocessesproducestatistical“estimates”withreportedorexpectedvaluesandsomelevelofvariability.NationalActionPlanforEnergyEfficiency(2007).ModelEnergyEfficiencyProgramImpactEvaluationGuide.StevenR.Schiller,SchillerConsulting,Inc.www.epa.gov/eeactionplan
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
67
uncertainbecausetheiraccuracydependsupontheinitialassumptionswhichcanbeunderminedbymanyreal‐worldfactors.
Theprogramaddressedbarriersrelatedtomeasurementofenergysavingssuchas:
nomeasurementnomanagement‐financiers,decision‐makersandadministratorsofenergyefficiencyprojectsarehinderedbylackofevidenceshowingsavings
hightransactionalcost‐foranenergyefficiencyprojecttosourcefinancefromthemarketplace(e.g.throughESS),thelackofaconsistentandagreedmethodstoclaimandcertifysavingsincurshightransactionalcosts
lackofskills–businessesinvolvedinenergyefficiencyprojectsgenerallylackofM&Vskillswhichinturnexacerbatespreviousbarriers.
Inthefollowingboxarelistedthethreemainmethodsusedtodeterminegrossprogramenergysavingsasdescribedin2007bytheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.
Thethreemajormethodstoestimategrossenergysavings
OneormoreM&VmethodsfromtheInternationalPerformanceMeasurementandVerificationProtocol(IPMVP)areusedtodeterminethesavingsfromasampleofprojects,andthesesavingsarethenappliedtoalloftheprojectsintheprogram.
Deemedsavingsbasedonhistorical,verifieddataareappliedtoconventionalenergyefficiencymeasuresimplementedintheprogram.
Statisticalanalysesoflargevolumesofenergymeterdataareconducted.NationalActionPlanforEnergyEfficiency(2007).ModelEnergyEfficiencyProgramImpactEvaluationGuide.StevenR.Schiller,SchillerConsulting,Inc.www.epa.gov/eeactionplanpage98.
AsenergyefficiencyprogramsinNSWarerelativelynew,thenecessaryenergysavingsdata,measurementandverificationmethodsandtoolshavehadtobedeveloped.Theactualsavingscanonlybeadequatelyestimatedusing“beforeandafter”approaches,inwhichasavingisdeterminedasthedifferenceoftheenergyusemeasuredaftertheinterventiontookplaceandabaselinerepresentingtheenergyuseiftheinterventionhadnottakenplace.Thisapproachreliesontwofactors(1)theavailabilityofmeasurementdata,and(2)acounterfactualbaselinewhichcanbeonlyestablishedthroughstatisticalmodellingwithhistoricalmeasurementdata.BothfactorsposedachallengetotheDEP.
Measurementdatacouldeithercomefrommeteredenergyuse(billingdata)regularlycollectedbytheenergynetworkserviceproviders,orfromtask‐orientedon‐sitedatalogging.OEHdoesnotownandpossessbillingdata,whiledataloggingincurssignificantcostandneedstechnicalskills/qualificationforwiring.ToaddressthisDEPhasnegotiatedarrangementswithNSWnetworkserviceproviderstosecureparticipantsbillingdatathathadneverbeenreleasedpreviously.
Thesecondfactor—establishingacounterfactualbaseline—requiresstatisticalandregressionmodelling,andthesespecialistskillswerenotavailablewithinprogramstaff
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
68
orparticipants.Toaddressthisgap,DEPdevelopedprogram‐specificmeasurementandverificationapproachesthatbestfittedthesituationsofeachprogram,takingaccountofrobustness,capacitybuilding,andcost‐effectiveness.
ThefollowingtablepresentsasummaryofthemethodsusedformeasuringsavingsasperJune2012.Detailsofthemethodsforeachprogramareprovidedinthefollowingparagraphs.
Table3‐8. SummaryofmethodsusedtoestimateenergysavingsforeachprogramtoendofJune2012
Deemedsavings Grosssavings Netsavings
Basedontargetuptake
Basedonactualuptake
Casestudy GBRP
Smallsample ESP
Representativesample
HPSPEESBP
HPSP
Allprojects ESPGBRP
Source:OEH,DataandEvaluationProgram,August2012
Twoprimarymethodshavebeendevelopedandtrialled:
Analysisofbillingdataforrelativelysmalluserssuchashouseholdsandsmallbusinesses
Measurement&Verification(M&V)thatusesindustrialmeasuresandismostsuitedformediumtolargesites.
Billingdataanalysisisamethodtomeasureparticipants’energyusebasedonstatisticalanalysisofbillingdataprovidedbyenergydistributors.Thislowcostmethodismostsuitableforrelativelysmallandhomogeneoususerssuchashouseholdsandsmallbusinesseswheremoderatesavingsareexpected,typicallyoverlargenumbersofusers.
NegotiationsbetweenDEPandNSWenergydistributorsfordatasharingtook1.5years,withtheneedtosatisfytheirconcernsaboutcustomerprivacyandprovidethemwithbusinessbenefits.ThisresultedinarrangementsforvariousenergysavingsquantificationtaskstoaccessthemostcomprehensiveenergyusedataevermadeavailabletoagovernmentagencyinAustralia.Theapplicationsinclude:
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
69
HomePowerSavingsProgram‐thehighparticipantnumbersanddiversityinhouseholdcharacteristicsmakehousedatalogginginadequate.Participantsbillingdataisusedtodeterminesavingsthroughcomparingenergyusewithacontrolgroupusingrigorousstatisticalmethods.Preliminarysavingsanalysisforhasbeencompletedandfullanalysisfor2012isunderway
EESBP‐projectstypicallyhaverelativelylowinvestment,straightforwardtechnology,lackofintervalmeterdata,lackoftimeandhigherpriorityissues.WhilecomprehensiveM&Visnotfeasible,thespecificityofeachbusinessmakesithardtoidentifyasuitablecontrolgroup.TheapproachdevelopedbyDEPusesestimatedsavingsfromparticipantsbillingdataandregressionmethodsundertherigorousprinciplesofM&V.Thisprovesacost‐effectivemethodologytoverifysavingsandassistingsmallbusinessestosourcefinancefromtheESS.
QuantificationofactualsavingsisalsounderwayfortheHousingNSW’sHomeInsulationProgram(aCCFproject),andunderplanningforthecompletedNSWHomeRebatesProgram.
Measurement&Verification(M&V)‐thismethodusesbestindustrialpracticetoverifysavings,andismostsuitedformediumtolargesiteswhereenergyuseisheterogeneous,measuresarecomplexandrelativelyhighcost,andlargesavingsareexpected.
Guideforlargebusinessandgovernmentagencyprograms(industrialprojectsinESS,ESP,EEGSP)‐heavierinvestment,complextechnology,andaccessibilitytointervalmeterdatacallsforrobustsite‐specificM&Vfortheselargeparticipantsprograms.Thisrequiresspecialskillsandconsistentapproaches,soDEPdevelopedanOperationalGuideforM&Vforpractitionerstostandardiseapproachesalignedwithinternationalbestpractice.ThedraftGuidewastestedusingsupervisedtrialswithselectedretrofitprojectsineachofthethreelargeparticipantsprograms.TheprojectswillprovidecasestudiesintherevisedGuide,whichisduetobeweb‐publishedinAugust2012.TheprojectwithESPhasbeenextendedforafullM&VaimingatcreationofEnergySavingsCertificates.
EnergySavingsScheme–whileESSislegislatedandadministeredoutsidetheOEH,DEPtooktheinitiativetoworkwithIPARTtodevelopatechnicalguidebookfortheESSRulesaccreditationprocedure,basedontheM&VGuide.ThisapproachbenefitsOEHevaluationbutalsoIPART’scertificateaccreditationwhichhasbeenhamperedbythelackofstandardandeasy‐to‐followguidelines;
EnergySaverProgram–participantsactonenergysavingmeasuresidentifiedinenergyauditslargelyonavoluntarybasiswithoutgovernmentfinancialsupport,soanM&Vrequirementwouldbeviewedasanextraburden.TheESPteamstartedwithanM&Vprojectforasmallsampleofbusinessesusingtheleastcostingoption.DEPisplanningtofollowthiswithamorecomprehensiveM&VtrialtunedtohelpclaimsavingsfromtheEnergySavingsScheme;
GovernmentSustainabilityPolicy–Thisprogramcomprisesofaclusteroffundschemesdifferinginsetting,targetgroup,timeframeandrequirement.ThefundingandtheinvestmentscalemakethoseschemesparticularlysuitabletoM&Vand
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
70
someschemeshaveM&Vinthecontractualconditions.Thechallengetocommitmentismainlyresourceconstraintandlackoftechnicalknowledge.Apartfromthetrialprojectsabove,DEPisplanningtohelpprojectmanagerstakeupM&Vbyprovidingexpertsupervisionandassistanceformoredemonstrationprojects;
3.7.3 Collectionofprogramdeliveryinformation
Thiscomponentfacilitatesthecollectionofreports,data,viewsandlessonsfromprograms,andcomplementsquantitativeprogramreporting.Akeyelementisfacilitationofevaluationreportsfromthesevenprograms.
ThedirectenergysavingprogramsandthecapacitybuildingprogramsrecorddetailedimplementationdataindatabasesandITsystems.TheStrategyandAnalysisUnitbuiltcomprehensivedatabases,analysedtrendsandprovidedreportsfortheprograms,aswellasthebroaderClimateChangeFundAnnualReportsthatincludetheseprograms.Threeprogramshavecommissionedmulti‐stageindependentevaluations(HPSP,EECAP,EETP)withdraftorinterimreportsavailableinJune2012whichhaveeachprovidedasoundbasisforconclusionsabouttheprogram’sachievementsandlessons.ESPandEESBPhavecommissionedvariousstudiesandsurveysandinJune2012providedinternalevaluationreportswhichcapturesomeoftheprogram’sexperience,achievementsandbarriers,withscopeformoredetailedanalysisoftrendsandpatternsfromtheirdata.
InJune2012ARTDcollectedtheviewsandexperiencefrommanagersoncoordinationandgovernanceacrosstheenergyefficiencyprogramstoinformcontinuousimprovement.
3.7.4 Assessmentofmarket&economicbenefits
DEPisusingmarketstudiesandeconomicmodellingtoassessimpactsoftheprogramsasawholeonenergyefficiencymarket,thenationalelectricitymarketandthestateeconomy.
Marketbenefits–theprojectaimstoevaluatetheimpactoftheenergyefficiencyprogramsasawholeontheenergyefficiencyproductandservicemarkets.Itstartedin2011withabaselineanalysisassumingnoprograminplace,andwillundertakeafinalanalysisincorporatingalltheenergyefficiencyprograms.DEPistosupplementthisdesktopstudywithamarketsurveyintoenergyefficiencyserviceandproductmarket.
Economicbenefits‐thisprojectistoestablishcost‐benefitmetricsoftheenergyefficiencyprogramsasawholefortheelectricitymarketandthestateeconomy,coveringpublicaswellasprivatecosts.ItinvolvesenergymarketandeconomywidemodellingandwilltransfersomeofthemodellingcapacitytoOEHatthecompletion(currentlyunderprocurement).
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
71
3.7.5 Integration,interpretationandreporting
Theprojectwasdesignedtointegrateandinterpretprograminformationandevaluationfindingsofthesevenenergyefficiencyprogramsandotherprojectsintoanoverallassessment.
Integrationandreporting‐theprojecthasevolvedtofocusonannualoverallreportsontheprogressandoutcomesoftheprogramsandinterpretingthefindingsintopolicymessages.DEPengagedARTDin2010astheevaluationpartnertoundertakethisrole.
Thepresentreportisakeyoutputofthisproject,integratingfindingsattheprogramlevelintoanassessmentofthedeliveryoftheinitialEnergyEfficiencyStrategy.Thiswillbepartoftheevidencebaseforconsultationandplanningonfuturedirectionswithenergyefficiencypoliciesandprograms.EvaluationAdvisoryGroup(EAG)‐thegroupwassetuptocoordinateandreviewevaluationprocessesacrossfourbranches,andcomprisesprogrammanagersofthesevenenergyefficiencyprograms,withDEPassecretarytotheGroup.SixEAGmeetingshavebeenheldsinceDecember2010withtheseventhinJune2012.AsatisfactionsurveybyARTDin2011foundmemberslargelysatisfiedwithsharinginformationbutsuggestedimprovementsformeetingpreparation,schedulingandlocation,
3.7.6 Otherdatadevelopmentforenergyefficiency
OEHandCSIROhaveacollaborativeprojectaimingtodevelopbroad‐basedenergyusedataandenergyefficiencyscenariomodellingtosupportevidencebasedpolicydevelopmentintheresidentialsector,inparallelwiththeevaluationoftheenergyefficiencyprograms.Itcommencedin2010inpartnershipwithAusgrid,EndeavourEnergy,EssentialEnergy,JemenaGasNetwork,HousingNSWandDepartmentofPlanning.Phase1isagranularNSWhomeenergyusedatadevelopmentprojectcompletedinJune2011.CSIROiscurrentlyfinalisingPhase2dueJuly2012–modellingforthreepilotscenarios:solarphotovoltaic(PV)update,hotwatersystemreplacementandhighstarwashmachineuptake.
3.7.7 Conclusion
TheDEPisprovidingmorereliableinformationonenergysavingsandtellingthestoryoftheOEHinvestmentsinenergyefficiency,leadingtolessuncertaintyandbetterinformationtoinformfuturedirections.
DEPhasmadesignificantprogressindevelopingandapplyingbestpracticemethodstoproducemorereliableenergysavingsestimatethroughbillingdataanalysisforsmallusersandM&Vformediumtolargesitesbasedontheinternationalprotocol.Whiletheprocesshasbeenrelativelyslow—owinglargelytotheengagementofexternalparticipantsonavoluntarybasis—itisresultinginhighlycrediblemeasuresthatwillincreasinglygeneratemorereliabledataonactualenergysavings.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
72
Theindividualprogramsarerecordingdetaileddeliverydataincomprehensivedatabases,supportedbytheanalyticalcapacityoftheStrategyandAnalysisUnit.Programsareincreasinglyusingthisdatatoinformimplementationandforevaluation.Theprogramswithmulti‐stageindependentevaluations(HPSP,EECAP,EETP)haveprovidedcomprehensiveassessmentsoftheirprogressandlessons.Otherprogramsundertookinternalevaluationreports,supportedbyindependentlycollectedparticipantdata.
Theintegrationandreportingofevaluationfindingsacrossthesevenenergyefficiencyprograms—asperthepresentreport—appearstobefillingagapintheOEHevidencebaseandcanprovideOEHwithaformalrecordofprogressandachievementsaswellasasourceofinformationforplanningfuturedirections.The2012evaluationprocesshasgeneratedgreaterinterestinandcommitmenttoongoingevaluationoftheprograms,andprovidesanumberoflessonsforconsideringthefutureevaluationstrategyforinvestmentsinenergyefficiency.
EvaluationofenergyefficiencyinCalifornia
TheDEPprogramhasmanysimilaritieswiththeevaluationprogramforenergyefficiencyinCalifornia,thoughatmuchsmallerscale.Californiaisaleaderinenergyefficiencyandsetsthebenchmarkforevaluation.Relevantfeaturesofthe2006‐2008evaluationcompletedin2010bytheEnergyDivision(withabudgetof$97million)were:
thestrongfocusonverifyingreportedenergysavings useofevaluationtoolsandmeasurestoapplyacrossmultipleprogramsandsites asetofrobustindependentevaluationscoveringalltheprograms focusonimpactevaluationssupportedbyprocessevaluations useofprogramtheory(programlogic)forevaluationframeworks includingcost‐effectivenessandmarkettransformationstudies increasingthefocusonbehaviouralissuesinenergyefficiencyprograms productionofastate‐wideoverallevaluationsynthesisreportwithaggregatedresults
The2010evaluationreportmadesomerecommendationsinlinewithfindingsofthisevaluation,forexample:
‐ programimplementersimproveprogramtrackingdatacollection‐ resultsfromtheevaluationsareusedforcontinuouslyimprovingsavingsestimates
andinformingfutureprogramdesign.
Sources:CalifornianPublicUtilitiesCommission,EnergyDivision(2010)2006‐2008EnergyEfficiencyReport.http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/Energy+Efficiency/EM+and+V/2006‐2008+Energy+Efficiency+Evaluation+Report.htm
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
73
4. Cross‐programcoordinationandstrategy‐widegovernance
Thissectionreviewsthestrategy‐widegovernanceandthecross‐programcoordinationandinformationsharingfortheNSWenergyefficiencystrategyinordertoidentifylessonsforthefuture.Itisbasedonareviewoftheprogramevaluationreports;andinterviewsinMay‐June2012withmanagersinvolvedintheEESabouttheirexperiencewiththeinternalgovernancearrangementsandtheirviewsaboutitsstrengthsandweaknesses.
Effectivegovernanceprocessesarealwaysachallenge.Theyneedtobalanceformalandinformalarrangements,andthetimeandresourcesforstrategy‐widegovernancewiththoseforprogrammanagement.Theidealapproachwillvarywiththestageofthestrategy,issuesaroundintegration,andthestructureandcultureoftheorganisation.
4.1 Theinitialdesignhadlimitedscopeforintegration
TheEnergyEfficiencyStrategyisacross‐organisationandtosomeextentcross‐agencysetofprogramsandpolicies.Theinitialdesignallowedforadegreeofcross‐impact:directenergysavingprogramswithsimilarapproachesthattargeteddistinctsectors(lowincomehouseholds,businesses,andgovernment);programsprovidingcapacity‐buildingsupporttotheindustryandthecommunity;andthemarket‐basedinstrumentoftheEnergySavingsScheme(ESS).TherewereexpectationsthatthedirectenergysavingprogramswouldutilisetheESSovertime,andthatthecapacity‐buildingprograms—EECAP,EETPwouldcontributeindirectlytothedeliveryofotherprogramsbyprovidingafavourableenvironmentforenergyefficiencyinitiatives.
Inpracticethescopeforintegrationwaslimited.TheEESitselfwasdevelopedandapprovedquickly,beforeadetailedunderstandingofhowprogramswouldfunction.NotallOEHenergyefficiencyprogramswereincluded,andinternalstakeholdershaddifficultieswiththerationaleforwhichprogramswereinandwhichprogramswerenot.Programsinthestrategyrarelyhaddirectlinkstootherprogramsembeddedintheirrespectiveobjectivesandsettings.InparticulartheESSwasmanagedbyIPARTnotOEHandinvolvementwiththeOEHprogramshasonlycommencedrecently.Thetwocapacitybuildingprograms(EECAP,EETP)wereexpectedtosupporttheotherprogramstosomedegree,butinpracticethishasbeenlimitedastheirtimeframesdidnotalwaysmatchtheimplementationtimeframeoftheotherprograms.EETPinparticularwhichissupportingthedevelopmentofaskilledworkforceforenergyefficiencywilltakesmanyyearstofullyrealisetheseresults.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
74
4.2 Organisationalsiloswereabarriertointegration
AnimportantpointisthattheEESsatontopoftheexistingOEHprogrammanagementandreportingarrangementsandtheseexistingarrangementswerelargelyrelieduponforthegovernanceofthestrategy.Thepolicyandoperatingenvironmentoverthisperiodwasamajorfactor,withaveryvolatilepolicycontext,theorganisationwithacontinuinghistoryofstructuralchange,andthetransitionofmanyseniormanagers.
Inthiscontextakeyconstraintonstrategy‐widecoordinationidentifiedbyanumberofmanagerswastheorganisationalstructurethathadsilosformanagementofenergyefficiencyprograms.AsrepresentedintheFigure4.1below,twosiloswerethetwomainbrancheswhereenergyefficiencyprogramsweresitting—WaterandEnergyprogramsontheonehandandBusinessandCommunityprogramsontheother.ThiswasheightenedbythegeographicsplitbetweenthefirstbranchlocatedintheCityandtheotherinParramatta.Intheabsenceofmoreformalarrangements,coordinationandinformationsharingreliedheavilyoninformalandpersonalrelationshipswherephysicalproximityisakeyfactor.
Theothersiloswerethesplitbetweenpolicyandprogramimplementation.Someprogrammanagersregrettedthelackoffeedbackdownthereportinglinethatwouldhaveofferedopportunitiesforlearningfromotherprograms.
Figure4‐1. OrganisationalchartofOEHunitsinvolvedinenergyefficiency
Environment&HeritagePolicyand
Programs
SustainabilityPrograms
Water&EnergyPrograms
HomePowerSavingsProgram
NSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy
Othersections:ClimateChangeFunding,Communications,
strategy&analysis,etc.
Business&CommunityPrograms
BusinessPartnership
EnergyEfficiencyforSmallBusiness
Program
EnergySaverProgram
CommunityEducation
EnergyEfficiencyCommunityAwareness
Program
EnergyEfficiencyTrainingprogram
Othersections:beachwatch,Localgov&wastestrategy,etc.
ClimateChange,AirandNoise
Emissionsreductions
DataandEvaluationProgram
Othersections:AirPolicy,NoisePolicy,etc.
Otherdivisions:GroupCoordination&Strategy,Heritage
Branch,etc.
Residential‐Govt /City
Business‐Community/Parramatta
Policy
Programimplementation
Source:ARTDaccordingtoOEHorganisationalchart,June2012
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
75
4.3 Coordinationwouldhavebeenimprovedbymorestructuredopportunities
EEShadanumberofarrangementstosupportstrategy–widecoordinationandinformation‐sharingincluding:
– SavePowercampaign(blackballoons)andtheEESwebsite– ProgramdatacollectionandreportingthroughtheClimateChangeFund– Aninformation‐sharingforumforOEHprogramsin2010– ComprehensiveEESevaluationframework– DEPactivitiesandthemeetingsoftheEvaluationAdvisoryGroup(EAG)
TheDEPinparticularhasanexplicitmandateforcross‐programsupportandintegration.OEHstaffwelcomedtheopportunityofferedbyEAGmeetingstosharelearningsfromotherprograms.Howevercoordinationofevaluationactivitiesdidnotfeedintoawiderstructureforcoordinationorgovernance.
Accordingtomanagerstherewaslittleattentiontocross‐programcoordinationorinformationsharingduringtheinitialdevelopmentanddeliveryphase,whereeachprogramwaslargelyfocusedonrefiningitsmethodsanddeliveringitsoutputs,
Howeverprogramsidentifiedopportunitiesforcoordinatedactivitiesalongtheway.ForexampleHPSPandEECAPhadcoordinatedinitiatives,forinstanceinregardtoacommonCALDstrategyandcouncilgrants.Whiledevelopingtheseinitiativestooktimeandcouldhavegonefurther,bothprogramsacknowledgedthebenefitsandwishedthereweremoresimilarinitiatives.Intheresidentialsector,aninternalhouseholdreferencegroupwascreatedtopromotecoordinationincludingaresearchcomponentthatprovidedsomekeyinsightintobehaviourchangesissues,butthishasnotcontinued.
Otherexamplesofsuccessfulcoordinationincludecross‐programinitiativeswithinthebusinesssectorbetweenEESBPandESP,bothworkingoutofthesamebranch.Theycollaboratedonthepanelsofserviceprovidersusedforretrofitsandtechnologyseminars.EETPhasalsoworkedcollaborativelywiththeESPprogramandthedevelopmentoftechnologyguides.Thetwobusinessprogramsalsohavearrangementsforbusinessesthatfallinthe‘grey’areabetweenthem.TheseprogramsareworkingtodevelopsynergieswiththeEnergySavingsSchemewhichisapotentialsourceofprojectcapitalforparticipatingbusinessesthroughthegenerationofESCs.ProgramstaffregrettedthelackofformalarrangementsforcoordinationwiththeESSthoughrecentlyprogramshavebeendevelopingtheseopportunities.
Oneoftheconsequencesoflimitedcoordinationhasbeenriskssuchasinconsistentmarketsignalsfromdifferentinitiativesormarketsaturation.Therewerealsocaseswhendifferentprogramsworkedquiteseparatelywiththesameexternalstakeholderssuchasgovernmentagencies,councilsorNGOs.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
76
Atthesametimemanagershighlightedthegoodwilloftheircolleaguesandtheinstancesofinformalsharingthatoccurred.ForinstanceEEGSPhascalledonthetwobusinessprogramstoassistittoaddressimplementationissuesexperiencedbyparticipantagencies.Butinpractice,mostmanagerssawlostopportunitiesforworkingmorecloselytogetherandsharinginformation,resources,andevenstaff.Feedbackfromprogrammanagershighlightedthepotentialforimprovingimplementationthroughamorestructuredapproachtocoordination.
4.4 Managersseekmoreoverarchinggovernance
TheEnergyEfficiencyStrategydidnothaveanoverallgovernanceframeworkoracross‐programmanagementgroup.Themainmanagementfocuswasondeliverybyeachprogram,throughthenormalprogrammanagementcontrols,andreportingthroughtheClimateChangeFunddatasystem.
Managershadmixedviewsaboutthecommunicationoftheoveralldirectionforthestrategy,withseniormanagersmorepositivethantheothers.Programmanagerswantedmoreinformationontheoverallstrategicagenda,howtheprogramswerepositioned,andlikelyfuturedevelopments,particularlyintherapidlychangingenvironment.
Overallmostmanagerswantedamoresystematicandstructuredprocessforstrategy‐widegovernanceandinformationsharingatthestrategicandprogramdeliverylevels.Theyalsorecognisedthepotentialburdenassociatedwithexcessivegovernancearrangementsandthevalueofretainingprogramflexibility.
OEHComment
OEHhasestablishedtheEnergyEfficiencySteeringGrouptocoordinateenergyefficiencypolicydevelopment,programdeliveryandevaluation.
ImprovedgovernanceandcoordinationisalsoafeatureofOEH’snewcorporatestructureasofearly2013.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
77
Appendix1. Evaluationreportsusedforthesynthesis
EachNSWEnergyEfficiencyprogramhasbeenconductingevaluationactivitiesaspartoftheoverallevaluationstrategyand/ortheirownevaluationstrategy.ToinformthepresentreportARTDrequestedinformationfromeachprogramaboutthemainachievementstoearly2012,progresstowardsandlikelysuccessinmeetingitsobjectivesandtargets,andthestoryofhowtheprogramhasadaptedtoovercomebarriersandmakeimprovements.
Inlinewiththeirrespectiveevaluationarrangements,programsprovidedthisinformationasanindependentevaluationreportorasaninternalreportbasedonfeedbackanddatacollectedoverthecourseoftheprogram,includinginsomecasesindependentevaluationactivitiessuchassurveysofstakeholders.
ThefollowingtablepresentsanoverviewofprogramevaluationsandreportsthatARTDhasusedasinputforthisevaluation.Foreachprogramsitspecifiesmaindatacollectionmethods.
Table4‐1.Evaluationreportsandmaindatacollectionmethodsforeachreport
Program Evaluationreports Maindatacollectionmethods
HomePowerSavingsProgram(HPSP)
2012InterimEvaluationoftheHomePowerSavingsProgram(ARTD2012)
Reviewofprogramdocumentation,monitoringandauditdata
Quantitativeanalysisoftheassessmentsdatabase
Assessors’survey 3focusgroupswithhouseholds Interviewswithinternalandexternal
stakeholders Onepilotcasestudy
EnergyEfficiencyforSmallBusinessProgram(EESBP)
Internalinterimevaluationreport(ISF2012)EvaluationoftheProgramPhaseI(DatabuildNovember2011)EvaluationoftheProgramPhaseII(DatabuildJune2012)
Analysisofassessmentsandretrofitdatabases
Auditfindings
participantssurveyandinterviews(Databuild)
EnergySaverProgram(ESP)
Internalinterimevaluationreport(2012)EvaluationoftheDECCWESPII(DatabuildMarch2011)
Analysisoftheprojectsdatabase Participantssurvey(Databuild)
NSWGovernmentSustainabilityPolicy(GSP)
Internalinterimevaluationreport(2012)
Regularreviewofmonitoringandauditdata
Informalfeedbackfromprograms’participants
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
78
Program Evaluationreports Maindatacollectionmethods
EnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgram(EETP)
EvaluationoftheEnergyEfficiencyTrainingProgram–Year2Annualreport(draft)(UrbisJune2012)
Reviewofprogramdocumentation Workshopsanddiscussionswith
programstaff Interviewswithexternalprogram
stakeholders Analysisofprojectdata
EnergyEfficiencyCommunity‐AwarenessProgram(EECAP)
PreliminaryfindingstoinformtheevaluationoftheEnergyEfficiencyCommunityAwarenessProgram(DatabuildJune2012)NSWEnergymarkFinalReport(CSIROJune2012)
Literatureanddocumentaryreview Interviewswithinternalandexternal
stakeholders Telephonesurveywith200NSW
residents
Pre‐Project,InterimandPost‐ProjectQuestionnaires(knowledge,attitudesandbehaviour)
Pre‐ProjectandPost‐ProjectCarbonFootprintQuestionnaires
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
79
Appendix2. Estimatesofactualenergysavings‐preliminaryresults
HomePowerSavingsProgram(HPSP)
Savingswereestimatedusingtwomethodsfrom7,000homeswhichaccountforabout18per cent of the total programparticipants at the timeof commencing the analysis.Two analysing methods were used: paired comparison with a control group, andregression.Theresultissummarisedinthefollowingtable.
Table4‐2. HPSPbillingdataanalysispreliminaryresults
Pairedcomparisonwithacontrolgroup
Regression
Averagesavingsacrossallhomes 0.6kWh/home/day(or4.0%reduction)
0.57kWh/home/day(or3.8%reduction)
Averagesavingsfromhomesthatreceivedthewholesavingkit 0.9kWh/home/day
(or6.0%reduction)
1.1kWh/home/day(or7.3%reduction)
Averagesavingsfromhomesthatreceivedthesavingkititemsexceptshowerheads
0.52kWh/home/day(or3.5%reduction)
0.45kWh/home/day(or3.0%reduction)
Relativelyspeaking,theresultfromPairedComparisonwithaControlGrouptendstobemorereliable.Howevertheregressionmethodhasgreaterpowertoprobeindetails.
The analysis was unable to detect any statistically significant saving attributable tobehaviouralchange.
EnergySavingsScheme
Thefollowingtable isacase‐studyfromtheM&VGuideDevelopmentprojectshowingthesavingsfromamajorretailerverifiedusingInternationalPerformanceMeasurement& Verification Protocol Option B/C9 for the purpose of claiming Energy SavingsCertificates(ESC)undertheESS.AsnoprojectsunderOEHprogramshaveclaimedESC,thiscasestudywasprovidedbyEnergetics.
9OptionA–Keyparametermeasurementfortheretrofitmeasure,OptionB–Fullparametermeasurementfortheretrofitmeasure,OptionC–Measurementattheboundaryofthewholefacility
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
80
Table4‐3. ESSMeasurement&Verificationpreliminaryresults
Program EnergySavingsScheme Site MajorRetailer
ProjectDescription Arangeofretrofitstostorelighting,HVACandrefrigerationsystems.
M&VMethodology IPMVPOptionB/C– Regressionbasedanalysisofwholefacility,analysinginputelectricityuseagainstambienttemperature(informofcoolingdegreedays).
BaselinePeriod 12monthperiodsbetween2007and2010.
SavingsanalysisPeriod Latest12monthstoAugust2011
Store BAUUsage(kWh)
ActualUsage(kWh)
EnergySavings(kWh)
GHGSavings(@0.89kgCO2‐e/kWh)
CostSavings($@$0.125/
kWh)
Savings%againstBAU
Store1 4,013,657 3,535,775 477,882 425,315 $59,735 12%
Store2 3,058,474 2,870,810 187,664 167,021 $23,458 6%
Store3 2,629,012 2,408,866 220,147 195,931 $27,518 8%
Store4 2,886,362 2,808,521 77,841 69,278 $9,730 3%
Store5 3,059,178 2,808,955 250,222 222,698 $31,278 8%
Store6 2,831,738 2,707,505 124,233 110,568 $15,529 4%
Store7 3,008,221 2,823,100 185,121 164,757 $23,140 6%
Store8 3,259,854 2,886,208 373,646 332,545 $46,706 11%
Store9 3,274,362 2,517,750 756,612 673,385 $94,577 23%
Store10 2,747,018 2,534,275 212,743 189,341 $26,593 8%
Store11 3,108,976 2,724,971 384,005 341,764 $48,001 12%
Store12 2,511,443 2,303,222 208,221 185,316 $26,028 8%
Store13 2,208,725 2,045,200 163,525 145,537 $20,441 7%
Store14 2,212,504 1,812,628 399,877 355,890 $49,985 18%
Store15 2,767,678 2,622,685 144,993 129,044 $18,124 5%
Store16 2,964,527 2,753,039 211,488 188,224 $26,436 7%
Store17 2,506,977 2,454,609 52,368 46,608 $6,546 2%
Store18 2,332,957 2,100,988 231,969 206,452 $28,996 10%
Store19 3,034,522 2,419,343 615,180 547,510 $76,897 20%
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
81
Store20 2,163,252 1,579,611 583,641 519,441 $72,955 27%
Store21 2,415,475 2,339,668 75,808 67,469 $9,476 3%
Store22 3,055,294 2,693,323 361,970 322,154 $45,246 12%
Store23 2,330,794 2,000,496 330,299 293,966 $41,287 14%
Store24 2,283,027 1,972,611 310,417 276,271 $38,802 14%
Store25 2,033,274 1,685,498 347,776 309,521 $43,472 17%
Store26 1,083,103 980,395 102,708 91,410 $12,838 9%
EnergySaverProgram(ESP)
Thefollowingtable isacase‐studyfromtheM&VGuideDevelopmentprojectshowingthesavingsfromamajorlightingretrofitprojectinSydneyMasonicCentre.TheprojectwasprovidedbyEnergySaverasatrialprojectforM&V.
Table4‐4. ESPMeasurement&Verificationpreliminaryresults
Program EnergySaver Site SydneyMasonicCentre
ProjectDescription LightingupgradefromincandescenttoLEDswithinGrandLodgeRoomandBanquetHallfunctionrooms.Theoldandretrofittedlightingsystemscanbedimmedfrom0to100percent.
M&VMethodology IPMVPOptionA1. Conductloadtesttomeasureinputpowerdraw(amps)foreachlightingcircuit
andmeasurethecorrespondinglightoutput(lux).2. Developbaselineandpost‐retrofitmodelsforpowerdraw.3. EstimateoperatinghoursfromfunctiondatabetweenJanuaryandMay2012.4. Extrapolatesavingsacross12months.
BaselinePeriod December2011
SavingsanalysisPeriod
01January2012to31May2012(5months)offunctionsdataJune2012forpostretrofitpowerdraw/lightlevelreadings
Actual Savings
Electricity (kWh) Cost ($) Greenhouse Gas Emissions (t.CO2-e) (@0.89 kgCO2/kWh)
Savings %
GrandLodgeRoom 35,310 $5,296 31 78%
BanquetHall 27,253 $4,088 24 66%
Total 62,563 $9,384 56 72%
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
82
Context Savingsanalysiswasbasedontheassumptionthattheretrofittedlightingsystemiscontrolledusingsimilarstepsaswiththeoldsystem.However,aslightinglevelshavesignificantlyimproved,differentcontrolstepsmaybeusedwhichmayaffectthesavingsestimates.
GovernmentSustainabilityPolicy(EEGSP)
Thefollowingtable isacase‐studyfromtheM&VGuideDevelopmentprojectshowingthesavingsfromchillerretrofitinWestmeadHospital.ThisprojectwasprovidedbytheGovernmentSustainabilityProgramasatrialprojectforM&V.
Table4‐5. EEGSPMeasurement&VerificationpreliminaryresultsfortheWestmeadHospitalcasestudy
Program GovernmentBuildingRetrofitProgram
Site WestmeadHospital
ProjectDescription
Upgradeoftwoexistingchillers(installed1978and1983)to2x4000kWvariablespeeddrivecentrifugalchillers.Additionaltwocoolingtowerstomeetincreasedcapacityandprovideimprovedcondenserwatertemperaturecontrol.Newcondenserwaterandchilledwaterpumpswithvariablespeeddrives.Newintegratedcontrolsystemwithautomaticsystemoptimisationcapability.
M&VMethodology
IPMVPOptionB/C–Regressionbasedanalysisofchilledwaterplant(chillers,pumpsandcoolingtowers),analysinginputelectricityuseagainstambienttemperature(informofcoolingdegreedays).
BaselinePeriod 1July2010to30June2011(12months)
Savings analysis Period
01August2011to31March2012(8months)
ActualSavings
Electricity(kWh) Cost($) GreenhouseGasEmissions(t.CO2‐
e)(@0.89kgCO2/kWh)
Uncertainty(%)at95%confidence
1,196,680 $138,760 1,065 ±29%
Context Savingsrepresenta12.4%reductioninchilledwaterplantenergyuse(measurementboundary)anda3.6%reductionoftotalsiteelectricityuse.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
83
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000M
on
thly
Ele
ctri
city
Use
(kW
h)
HVAC kWh
Modelled HVAC kWh
Savings Period:1,196 MWh$138,0001,280 t.CO2-e12.4%
The followingtable isacase‐studyfromtheM&VGuideDevelopmentprojectshowingthesavingsfromastartingphaseoftheCentralPassageofSydneyOperaHouselightingretrofit.ThisprojectwasprovidedbytheGovernmentSustainabilityProgramasatrialprojectforM&V.
Table4‐6. EEGSPMeasurement&VerificationpreliminaryresultsfortheCentralPassageoftheSydneyOperaHousecasestudy
Program GovernmentRetrofitProgram
Site SydneyOperaHouse,CentralPassage
ProjectDescription
Lightingupgradeinvolvinglamp/fixturereplacementandintroductionofcontrols.
M&VMethodology IPMVPOptionB1. Measurebaselineandpost‐retrofitenergyuseusingadataloggerforthe"Central
Passage".2. Determinesavingsforpost‐retrofitperiodbyaligningdaysandadjustingfor
changesinSunrise/Sunsettimesduetophotoelectriccellcontroloflighting.3. Determineaveragehourlyusageandsavingsfordayandnightperiods.4. Useannualdataforsunrise/sunsettoextrapolatethe2weeksofdataacross12
months.5. Assumesteadystateoperationoneverydayoftheyear.
BaselinePeriod 12thto24thJuly2011(12days)
SavingsanalysisPeriod
25thOctoberto6thNovember2011(12days). Savingsextrapolatedusing2011solardata.
ActualSavings Electricity (kWh) Cost ($) Greenhouse Gas
Emissions (t.CO2-e) (@0.89
kgCO2/kWh)
Saving %
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
84
58,087 $8,713 52 32%
Context ThesavingscalculatedaboveapplytotheCentralPassagepartoftheupgrade.
EnergyEfficiencyforSmallBusinessProgram
Of the1,259 rebatedbusinesses in theAusgrid andEssential Energy’s network areas,509 were matched with billing data for over 12 months both before and after theretrofit.Of the509businesses,331weresuccessfullymodelled toestablishabaselinewhich enabled an M&V analysis under the Option C (whole building) of the IPMVP(InternationalPerformanceMeasurement&VerificationProtocol).
For the 331 businesses included in theM&V analysis, a total of 1,867MWhhas beensavedinthefirstyear,or8.3%relativetothebaseline.Onaverage,everybusinesssaved5.64MWhor9.3%relativetoitsbaselineforthe1styear.Thisishighlycomparabletothe initial estimated saving by the auditors of 5.2 MWh per business per year. Thefollowing tables show theprojects groupedbybusiness types and retrofit technology,respectively.
Table4‐7. EESBPMeasurement&Verificationpreliminaryresultsbybusinessactivity
BusinessActivity Number ActualUsage(kWh)
EnergySavings(kWh)
CostSavings($@$0.20/kWh)
EnergySavings%(toBAU)
Accommodation 12 1,363,717 158,488 31,690 10.4%
Agriculture,forestry,fishing 16 905,360 61,240 12,248 6.3%
Café/Restaurant 90 7,155,684 314,870 62,974 4.2%
Communication 2 112,483 ‐1.579 ‐319 ‐1.4%
Construction 1 25,970 3,496 699 11.9%
Cultural/RecreationalService
7 774,476 14,606 2,921 1.9%
Education 2 31,257 2,969 594 8.7%
Electricity,gas&water 2 13,314 951 190 6.7%
Finance/InsuranceServices 3 41,369 9,578 1,916 18.8%
Health/Communityservice 23 1,183,512 143,246 28,649 10.8%
Manufacturing* 7 607,952 ‐145,537 ‐29,107 ‐31.5%
Personal/Otherservices 34 952,225 130,863 26,173 12.1%
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
85
Property/Businessservices 9 131,723 24,038 4,808 15.4%
Retailtrade 105 5,592,693 753,109 150,622 11.9%
Transport/Storage 15 1,700,393 365,616 73,123 17.7%
Wholesaletrade 3 62,278 30,843 6,169 33.1%
GrandTotal 331 20,654,406 1,866,739 373,348 8.3%
*Oneofthemanufacturingsitehasseena74%increaseinconsumption.Thisincreaseismostlikelytoberelated to some non‐EESBP factor e.g. production growth.However,without further investigation, it isbettertoleaveitintoobservetheobjectivityofM&V.
Table4‐8. EESBPMeasurement&Verificationpreliminaryresultsbytechnology
Technologysummary Number ActualUsage(kWh)
EnergySavings(kWh)
CostSavings($@$0.20/kWh)
Savings%
Aircompression 2 65,904 11,236 2,247 14.6%
Boilers 4 284,955 28,417 5,683 9.1%
Hotwater 21 966,406 68,615 13,723 6.6%
HVAC 56 2,921,560 245,469 49,094 7.8%
Insulation 3 86,777 ‐78 ‐$16 ‐0.1%
Lighting 124 6,865.519 1,030,375 206,075 13.0%
MotorsandVSDs 5 344,493 49,272 9,854 12.5%
Refrigeration 86 7,670,508 254,056 50,811 3.2%
Multiple 30 1,447,847 179,379 35,876 11.0%
GrandTotal 331 20,654,406 1,866,739 373,348 8.3%
EstimatesoutsidethecurrentOEHprograms
Billingdataanalysiswasundertakenfor1,000lowincomehomeswithceilingsinsulatedbytheHousingNSW.Unfortunatelytheprogramdidnotcollectparticipantconsentsfordisclosingtheirbillingdata.TheanalysishadtousethedataobtainedforHPSP.AstheinsulationdateandHPSPassessmentdataareentirelydis‐aligned,itsignificantlydegradedthequalityofthedataforanalysis.Asaresult,nosignificantresultcouldbeestablished.
FinalReport–August2012 2012evaluationofNSWenergyefficiencyprograms
86
Appendix3. Keyreferences
CaliforniaPublicUtilitiesCommission,EnergyEfficiencyEvaluationReport,July2010
CaliforniaPublicUtilitiesCommission,EnergyDivisionScenarioAnalysisReport,July2010
IPART,ReviewofNSWClimateChangeMitigationMeasures,May2009
IPART,Changesinregulatedpricesfrom1July2012,June2012
MirjamHarmelink,LarsNilssonandRobertHarmsen,Theory‐basedpolicyevaluationof20energyefficiencyinstruments,EnergyEfficiencyVolume1,Number2,Springer,2008
U.S.NationalActionPlanforEnergyEfficiency,ModelEnergyEfficiencyProgramImpactEvaluationGuide.PreparedbyStevenR.Schiller,SchillerConsulting,Inc,2007
U.S.NationalActionPlanforEnergyEfficiency,UnderstandingCost‐EffectivenessofEnergyEfficiencyPrograms:BestPractices,TechnicalMethods,andEmergingIssuesforPolicy‐Makers.EnergyandEnvironmentalEconomics,Inc.andRegulatoryAssistanceProject,2008
Reed,J.H.,Jordan,G.,&Vine,E.,Impactevaluationframeworkfortechnologydeploymentprograms,USDepartmentofEnergy,2007