NPBManagement Conference

June 17, 2015

The power of your national and state organizations working together on your behalf

Top Four Accomplishments

• Passed Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) in the U.S. Senate

• Passed Mandatory Price Reporting in the U.S. House

• Exemption from DOT hours of service for another two years

• Ensuring that pork producers have a voice in the WOTUS Rule, over 500 comments submitted

Legislative and Regulatory

•Trade Issues• Environment• Animal Health• Mandatory Price Reporting

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1979-81 1997-99 2015 2030

Kil

ogra

ms/

capi

ta/y

ear

Year

Changes in World Food Consumption

Milk and dairy

Meat

Vegetable oils, oilseeds

Pulses

Sugar

Roots and Tubers

Cereals

Source: FAO

Urban

Rural

—

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

Pop

ula

tion

(in th

ousa

nds)

Year

World Population Growth

Source: UN Population Division

2013 2014 % Change 2013 2014 % Change

World $ 6,049,819,352 $ 6,674,430,723 10% 2,144,327 2,178,484 2%

Japan $ 1,883,339,463 $ 1,932,380,193 3% 424,551 468,719 10%

Mexico $ 1,223,687,112 $ 1,557,750,665 27% 626,377 680,842 9%

Canada $ 844,527,157 $ 904,677,284 7% 227,409 207,363 -9%

China/Hong Kong $ 902,758,570 $ 775,412,933 -14% 416,993 337,305 -19%

South Korea $ 276,193,708 $ 444,559,794 61% 99,350 135,395 36%

ASEAN 162,426,455$ 188,484,799$ 16% 69,620 70,499 1%

Philippines $ 112,253,797 $ 103,650,283 -8% 50,060 38,876 -22%

Singapore $ 44,467,370 $ 80,037,331 80% 17,311 29,971 73%

Australia $ 176,153,394 $ 181,620,636 3% 53,924 50,101 -7%

CAFTA-DR $ 148,894,277 $ 163,999,946 10% 60,453 56,484 -7%

Dominican Republic $ 43,401,951 $ 47,076,121 8% 18,694 16,898 -10%

Colombia $ 88,312,553 $ 134,107,138 52% 34,274 47,442 38%

Chile $ 61,670,513 $ 49,315,836 -20% 24,197 19,109 -21%

Taiwan $ 40,318,896 $ 38,254,825 -5% 18,104 15,720 -13%

Others 241,537,254$ 303,866,674$ 26% 89,075 89,505 0%

Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas

U.S. Pork and Pork Variety Meat Exports 2013-2014

Partner CountryTonsUS Dollars

2014 2015%

Change2014 2015

 %

Change 

World 1,648,696,720 1,421,282,044 -14% 583,679 525,984 -10%

Japan 478,458,057 386,611,669 -19% 120,118 103,922 -13%

Mexico 343,284,333 321,169,023 -6% 167,960 179,506 7%

China/Hong Kong 260,443,299 152,073,830 -42% 113,491 67,755 -40%

Canada 192,315,262 192,351,105 0% 47,906 48,906 2%

South Korea 116,245,015 180,401,522 55% 40,143 57,377 43%

Australia 64,779,540 41,987,200 -35% 19,264 11,864 -38%

ASEAN 35,362,000 53,702,320 52% 21,888 9,498 -57%

Philippines 26,388,664 14,484,532 -45% 10,791 7,259 -33%

Singapore 25,757,107 5,002,706 -81% 10,546 1,698 -84%

CAFTA-DR 30,360,712 36,414,019 20% 14,155 15,916 12%

Dominican Republic 11,238,596 13,600,099 21% 4,490 5,780 29%

Colombia 36,000,002 32,084,031 -11% 14,069 12,089 -14%

Taiwan 8,981,658 9,040,221 1% 3,788 4,236 12%

Others 82,466,842 15,447,104 -81% 20,897 14,915 -29%Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas

U.S. Pork and Pork Variety Meat Exports  US Dollars Metric Tons

Partner

Country/Region

January-March January-March

Trade

• West Cost Port Slowdown– Hurt US Pork Exports– ILSU ratified agreement (West Coast)– Lingering Challenges

• Portland Fundamentally Empty• Slug here – then slug somewhere else

– There will be attempts at legislation• Slow Down Tactics /Taft-Hartley

– 4 years to West Coast Renewal– 3 years to East Coast Renewal

Source: Darci Vetter, USTR; IDB Integration and Trade Sector based on INTrade.

RTA Expansion 1975

RTA Expansion 1995

Source: Darci Vetter, USTR; IDB Integration and Trade Sector based on INTrade.

RTA Expansion 2014

Source: Darci Vetter, USTR; IDB Integration and Trade Sector based on INTrade.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

20 FTA Countries 174 Non-FTA Countries

Pork Exports & Free Trade AgreementsBillions of Dollars

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

US Trade Balances with FTA Countries

and the Rest of World

20 FTA Countries 174 Non-FTA Countries

Bil

lion

Doll

ars

Trade

• Trade Promotion Authority– Gives President Authority to

present to Congress a trade deal for an up or down vote (no amendments)

– Passage send a signal we (United States) are serious about a deal.

– With TPA – TPP could close this summer, without – the world moves forward.

Trade TPA / TPP

• Step 1 – Senate Approves Bill send to House

• Trade Promotion Authority (TPA)• Trade Adjustment Assistance (TPA)• Custom Reauthorization

• Step 2– House passes TPA & Customs (June 12)– Fails to pass TAA

• All three are tied to together• Reconsideration vote as early as 6/16/15• Then what?

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920300

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

US Pork Exports to Japan with No U.S. TPP Deal

Legislative and Regulatory

• Trade Issues

•Environment• Animal Health• Mandatory Price Reporting

Legislative & Regulatory

• EPA – Waters Of The U.S. Rule (WOTUS)• Rule announced – waiting publication in Federal

Register• Proposed rule was too vague NPPC supported

pulling the rule • When rule is enacted…would have significant

impact on nutrient application

Waters of the US

• NPPC/American Farm Bureau and other ag parties form coalition to fight the rule.

• Completed a mapping system to show and exhibit the impacts.

• 500 comments form the pork industry, 860,000 total

MISSOURI

Website, be patient, large files

• http://tinyurl.com/EPAWATERS

Legislative and Regulatory

• Trade Issues• Environment

•Animal Health• Mandatory Price Reporting

Antibiotics

• This is First About Responsible Use of Antibiotics…. Zero is not an option

Antibiotics

• Key Affirmation – Responsible use of medically important

antibiotics protects animal health and well being, ensures food safety and preserves their effectiveness for animals and humans

Antibiotics

• Guidance 209/213– NPPC support/embrace/lead as it relates to

implementation and compliance – It is uncertain of the impact this will have on

resistance…that is to be determined

Antibiotics

• Guidance 209/213 cont’d• Key outcomes

– Veterinary oversight– No medically important abx used in growth

promotants – Impact on feed mills, distribution and farms – VFD guidance announced during Expo

Antibiotics

• Channel Outreach– ABX are a growing issue– Meetings with Walmart, Kroger, Costco &

Safeway– McDonalds, Brinker & Darden – Educational Seminars and Webinars for

channel – In cooperation with NPB

• (Also Dietary Guidelines)

Legislative and Regulatory

• Trade Issues• Environment• Animal Health

•Mandatory Price Reporting

Legislative & Regulatory

• Mandatory Price Reporting (MPR) passed the U.S. House early June– Expands time periods reflected in the morning

and afternoon hog reports– Adds “Negotiated Formula Category”– Ensures MPR continues during Gov’t

shutdown.

Thank you…..Questions?