Now for the Hard Part: Building State Capability for Policy Implementation

Michael WoolcockDevelopment Research Group, World Bank

Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

Australasian Aid Conference, Canberra

15 February 2017

Free download available at: http://bsc.cid.harvard.edu/building-state-capability-evidence-analysis-action

Overview

• Familiar Problems• Poor governance, weak institutions, inadequate ‘rule of law’…

• Long-standing concerns that “reforms” have so often failed

• Unfamiliar Explanations• So why has human welfare never been better?

• Why, how has ‘institution building’ mostly failed, yet expanded?

• Pragmatic Responses• More of the same won’t get us there

• Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA) as a plausible alternative

1. Familiar Problems

• Long-standing, widespread recognition that “institutions matter”• Adam Smith, Karl Marx…. to Gordon Brown,

David Cameron, Robert Zoellick, George Soros…

• Especially ‘the rule of law’• “No other single political ideal has ever achieved

global endorsement”• Brian Tamanaha (2008), The Economist

• Now enshrined in SDG #16, #17

• Familiar lament that corruption, poor governance, weak institutions are the “root cause” of enduring poverty, underdevelopment, failed programs/policies

Yet little to show for this broad support

• Since the 1930s (and onwards), a steady drumbeat of critiques; institution building efforts…• “… often fits so ill with our own style or is so far removed from it that we can use it

at best as a decoration and not as material to build with” (Ki Hajar Dewantara, 1935)

• a field in “crisis”, perpetuated by scholars “in self-estrangement” (1974)

• has yielded, at best, a “fragile path of progress” (2008)

• Thomas Carothers: we need a “completely different approach” (2006)

• Yet little refinement in approach, no cumulative body of ‘expertise’

• Indeed, if anything, institutions getting worse (not better) almost everywhere, while funding only expands…

Only the 13 ‘historically developing countries’ (in green) are on a

plausible path to strong capability by the end of the 21st century.Rapid negative

(g<-.05)

Slow Rapid positive

(g>.05)Negative

(-.05<g<0)

Positive

(0<g<05)

Strong (SC>6.5) BHR, BHS, BRN CHL(0), SGP(0), KOR(0), QAT(0) ARE(0)

8 0 3 4 1

Middle (4<SC<6.5) MDA, GUY, IRN, PHL, LKA,

MNG, ZAF, MAR, THA, NAM,

TTO, ARG, CRI

PER, EGY, CHN, MEX, LBN, VNM,

BRA, IND, JAM, SUR, PAN, CUB, TUN,

JOR, OMN, MYS, KWT, ISR

KAZ(10820), GHA(4632), UKR(1216),

ARM(1062), RUS(231), BWA(102),

IDN(68), COL(56), TUR(55), DZA(55),

ALB(42), SAU(28), URY(10), HRV(1)

45 13 18 14 0

Weak

(2.5<SC<4)

GIN, VEN, MDG, LBY, PNG,

KEN, NIC, GTM, SYR, DOM,

PRY, SEN, GMB, BLR

MLI, CMR, MOZ, BFA, HND, ECU,

BOL, PAK, MWI, GAB, AZE, SLV

UGA(6001), AGO(2738), TZA(371),

BGD(244), ETH(103), ZMB(96)

32 14 12 6 0

Very weak (SC<2.5) YEM, ZWE, CIV SOM, HTI, PRK, NGA, COG, TGO,

MMR

SDN(7270), SLE(333), ZAR(230),

IRQ(92)

NER(66), GNB(61),

LBR(33)

17 3 7 4 3

102 30 40 28 4

Source: Authors’ calculations of state capability from Quality of Government, Failed State Index, and World Governance indicators (Data Appendix 1.1).

Glacial progress on governancee.g., Guatemala’s distance to “Portugal”

Declining capability: In education in India…

…and a long time for Indonesia to get to Denmark.

Adapted from Pritchett (2016) http://www.cgdev.org/blog/need-pivot-learning-new-data-adult-skills-indonesia

At current rate, it will take“128 years” for Indonesia’stertiary education sector to meet OECD performance standards…

…and by developing countrystandards, Indonesia is actually doing quite well.

100

90

90

90

60

43

30

9.2

21.2

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Czech Republic

Finland

Uruguay

Colombia

Top quartile by income

Second quartile by income

Third quartile by income

Lowest quartile

Bottom half of countries by years of schooling

Lowest 25 countries

Percent of 10 misaddressed letters coming back to USA within 90 days

Includes not just Somalia and Myanmar but Tanzania, Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, Russia, Mongolia, Cambodia, Honduras, Fiji, etc.

Source: Chong, et al (2014)

Low capability, even on routine tasksTesting the post office in 157 countries

If “institutions matter”, why are they getting worse while everything else gets better?

• Despite the headlines, the world has never been in better shape, which is great…

Despite the headlines…http://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7272929/charts-thankful

If “institutions matter”, why are they getting worse while everything else gets better?

• Despite the headlines, the world has never been in better shape, which is great…

• ...but now for the hard part.• ‘Thin’ and ‘technocratic’ development

problems mostly solved (or solve-able)• Infrastructure, logistics, Central Banks

• Looming challenges thick with ‘thick’• Governance (regulation, justice, taxation), gender• Education (learning): at scale, for everyone

• Complex problems:• High discretion, human interaction• Solution unknown, imposition

2. Unfamiliar explanations

• Standard accounts, explanations of weak capability• ‘Lack of political will’, ‘low capacity’, ‘culture’, ‘entrenched corruption’…• Failure to adopt ‘best practices’

2. Unfamiliar explanations

• Standard accounts, explanations of weak capability• ‘Lack of political will’, ‘low capacity’, ‘culture’, ‘entrenched corruption’…• Failure to adopt ‘best practices’

• But if institutions getting worse, why is human welfare getting better?• Because so many places are starting from so low a base• Because if a country stops doing awful things (civil war) and starts providing basic things

(roads, stability), good things happen• But the “low hanging fruit” has mostly been plucked…

• Why so little to show for so much effort, expenditure on ‘institutions’?• Prevailing administrative systems designed for technical and logistical decisions• “Success” determined by inputs/appearances, not achievements (‘Isomorphic Mimicry’)• Because we ask too much too soon of too little (‘Premature Load Bearing’)

3. Some Pragmatic ResponsesWhat to do?

• Document, explore, explain, share sub-national variation• Wide variance in outcomes a ubiquitous feature of complex problems

• Integrate broad surveys with detailed case studies• Global Delivery Initiative (http://www.worldbank.org/reference/GDI/)

• Innovations for Successful Societies (https://successfulsocieties.princeton.edu/)

• Building state capability by expanding local successes • Especially for engaging with ‘thick’, ‘adaptive’ problems

• Which are legion, looming, lasting (i.e., never ‘solved’)

• New focus on ‘adaptive implementation’• E.g., Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA)

• Organizations, like individuals, acquire capability through practice• Cf. languages, musical instruments, sports

• “You can’t juggle without the struggle”

PDIA (Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation)

an approach to building capability of state organizations while producing results

(or: Success gets you good institutions, not good institutions gets you success)

How does PDIA differ?“Big D”

(e.g. WB, agencies)“small d”

(e.g. NGOs) PDIA

What drives action?

Pre-determined solutions(“institutional mono-cropping”, “best practice”), more inputs

Niche, parallel solutions(via variety of antidotes – e.g. “participation” “community driven”)

Planning for action?

Lots of advance planning(implementation of secondary importance)

Boutique; starting very small with no plans for scale

Feedback loops?

Monitoring (short, on financing, compliance, inputs) and Evaluation (long feedback loop on outputs, maybe outcomes)

Casual; geared to advocacy, not systemic learning

Scale?

Top-down: the head learns, implementation is just muscle (“political will”)

Small is beautiful…Or, just not logistically possible

How does PDIA differ?“Big D”

(e.g. WB, agencies)“small d”

(e.g. NGOs) PDIA

What drives action?

Pre-determined solutions(“institutional mono-cropping”, “best practice”), more inputs

Niche, parallel solutions(via variety of antidotes – e.g. “participation” “community driven”)

Problem-Driven: looking to solve particular problems, locally nominated and prioritized

Planning for action?

Lots of advance planning(implementation of secondary importance)

Boutique; starting very small with no plans for scale

Assuring authorizing environmentpromoting positive deviation, purposive crawl of the design space

Feedback loops?

Monitoring (short, on financing, compliance, inputs) and Evaluation (long feedback loop on outputs, maybe outcomes)

Casual; geared to advocacy, not systemic learning

MeE: integration of rigorous “experiential” learning into tight feedback loops

Scale?

Top-down: the head learns, implementation is just muscle (“political will”)

Small is beautiful…Or, just not logistically possible

Diffusion of feasible practice across organizations and communities of practitioners

Out of 30 examined cases of successful reform in developing countries…

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

What MotivatesReform?

How do reformsget implemented

Final structures

Solution and LeaderDriven change

PDIA

Four Principles of PDIA(Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation)

1. Local Solutions for Local Problems

2. Pushing Problem Driven Positive Deviance

3. Try, Learn, Iterate, Adapt

4. Scale Learning through Diffusion

Local Solutions for Local Problems

o Agenda for action focused on a locally nominated and prioritized concrete problem

o Not “solution” driven that defines the problem as the lack of a particular input (e.g. “teacher qualifications”) or process (e.g. “EMIS”)

o Rigorous about measurable goals in the output/outcome space (e.g. cleaner streets, numbers of new exports, growth of exports)—can we know if the problem is being solved?

• Good problems

Examples of “problem driven”

Compliance Driven

• Enforce existing regulations on workplace safety

• Hire teachers with required qualifications

• Comply with procurement regulations

Problem Driven

• Reduce fatalities/accidents at work places

• Attract and retain teachers who help student progress

• Buy provisions in a timely, cost-effective manner

Pushing Problem-Driven Positive Deviation

o Authorize some agents (not all) to move from process to flexible and autonomous control to seek better results

o An “autonomy” for “performance accountability” swap (versus “process accountability”)

o Only works if the authorization is robust, and is problem driven, measured and measurable…

Authorizing positive deviation

o Allow flexibility in methods against specified and agreed to problems

o “Fence breaking” activities that allow deviations from process controls for designated activities

o Rapid feedback loops to search over design space

o Exploring, explaining existing variation

o Scaling by diffusion of demonstrated practices across the organization

Variation, all the way down, everywhere…

County-level response to ‘Great Recession’: 2010-2014

District-level variation in absenteeism at health clinics, Yemen

8%

18%

18%

20%

20%

20%

23%

24%

25%

25%

25%

25%

27%

27%

29%

33%

33%

35%

38%

38%

40%

49%

50%

50%

50%

50%

52%

52%

67%

70%

73%

78%

80%

82%

83%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Algobein

Bilad Alttaam

Alsawadiah

Algaafariah

Alhaymah Aldak

Alttyal

Mothikerah

Baadan

Alodein

Noaman

Alfaraa

Bani Hosheish

Alsadah

Alnaderah

Mazhar

Alssowmaah

Hobeish

Hamdan

Alqoraishiah

Mokairas

Yareem

Alsalafiah

Almakhader

Khawlan Alhesn

Manakhah

Sabah

Alqafr

Arhab

Alaymah Alkhar

Alshaar

Bani Dhabian

Geblah

Kosmah

Bani Mattar

Alttafah

Absenteeism by District, Yemen% of All Employees absent

1. Building State Capability Program, Harvard Kennedy School• http://buildingstatecapability.com• MOOC (Massive Open Online Course), free to anyone (1000+ so far)

2. Incorporation into major reports, donor programs, activities• World Development Reports

• Conflict & Security (2012), Behavioral Economics (2015), Governance & Law (2017), Education (2018)• Police Reform in Afghanistan (DFID, funding)

3. Global Delivery Initiative• http://www.worldbank.org/reference/GDI/• Focus on understanding implementation dynamics in specific contexts• Analytic case studies for diagnostics, learning, sharing

4. Forging a global community of practice• See ‘Doing Development Differently Manifesto’ (November 2014)

• http://buildingstatecapability.com/the-ddd-manifesto/• DDD4 in Jakarta, 15-16 March 2017

5. Incorporation into World Bank country programs• Indonesia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Tajikistan, (Malawi)

6. Others• Global Health, International Rescue Committee, Mercy Corps, Results for Development, Feedback Labs, USAID…

Adaptive approaches in action

Other ‘adaptive’ approaches in action

• India, operationally: Pratham’s ‘Teaching at the Right Level’ program• Prevailing system: students advance to new grade level each year, no matter what

they demonstrably know; teachers teach textbook, no matter what…

• Low student attendance because students couldn’t follow basic content

• Focus in particular on years 3, 4 and 5 (after this, “too late”)

• “Children who never came regularly to school before are coming now. Children who could not do anything earlier, are able to do so much… Ten days ago she could not even recognize words and today she wants to write her favourite word! We have achieved more in 10 days than in 5 years! How is all this happening?” (see Banerji 2015)

A self-critique(or, enacting “a propensity for self-subversion”)

• Water pistol in a gun fight?• What if prevailing politics too nasty, overwhelming?

• Adequate administrative ‘plumbing’?• Procurement, accounting, etc

• Securing robust authorizing environment?• When political winds shift, staff turnover is high…

• Discerning ‘good failure’ from design failure, implementation failure• When to hold, fold, walk away, run?

• PDIA-ing PDIA: a perpetual “second word” on implementation

Further reading, sources• Andrews, Matt, Lant Pritchett and Michael Woolcock (2013) ‘Escaping capability traps

using Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation’ World Development 51(11): 234-244

• Andrews, Matt, Lant Pritchett and Michael Woolcock (2017) Building State Capability: Evidence, Analysis, Action (New York: Oxford University Press)

• Banerji, Rukmini (2015) ‘How do systems respond to disruptive pedagogic innovations? The case of Pratham in Bihar’ RISE Working Paper 15/02

• Brixi, Hana, Ellen Lust and Michael Woolcock (2015) Trust, Voice and Incentives: Learning from Local Success Stories in Service Delivery in the Middle East and North Africa (Washington, DC: World Bank)

• Pritchett, Lant (2013) The Rebirth of Education: Schooling Ain’t Learning (Washington: Center for Global Development)

• Lant Pritchett, Michael Woolcock and Matt Andrews (2013) ‘Looking like a state: techniques of persistent failure in state capability for implementation’ Journal of Development Studies 49(3): 1-18

• http://buildingstatecapability.com/

• http://doingdevelopmentdifferently.com/

• http://bsc.cid.harvard.edu/