November 7 th, 2010 Prepared for Presentation at the XLIV FELABAN Annual Assembly Punta del Este,...

November 7th, 2010

Prepared for Presentation at the XLIV FELABAN Annual AssemblyPunta del Este, Uruguay

Ernesto Talvi

Director Académico de CERES Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

Opportunities, Risks and Challenges Ahead

Latin America’s Insertion in the Post-Financial Crisis Global Order:

OUTLINE

I. The Global Economy and Latin America in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis

II. Latin America’s Insertion in the New Global Order

III. Policy Challenges for the New Global Order

The Global Economy

Latin America

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Industrial Countries Emerging

Markets

70% of World Output 30% of World Output

(quarterly, seasonally adjusted, at annual rates, in bn of US$)



Aggregate Demand in the US

Private Consumption ExportsPrivate Investment

-9%

Lehman’s Bankruptcy

Beginning of Global Recovery

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



-30%

400

450

500

550

600

650

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



-15%Pre-Gobal Crisis Trend

Pre-Gobal Crisis Trend


Gross Domestic Product(quarterly, seasonally adjusted at

annual rates, in bn of US$)

Imports(quarterly, seasonally adjusted at

annual rates, in bn of US$)

Aggregate Supply in the US

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-8%



3602

3304

Pre-Global Crisis Trend

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

521

674

-23%




3109

Fiscal Accounts in the US

Fiscal Revenues Primary Expenditure(seasonally adjusted at annual rates,

in bn of 2000 dollars)(seasonally adjusted at annual rates,

in bn of 2000 dollars)

Fiscal Balance(in % of GDP, last 4 quarters)

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

3900

4100

Mar

-03

Oct

-03

May

-04

Dec

-04

Jul-0

5

Feb

-06

Sep

-06

Apr

-07

Nov

-07

Jun-

08

Jan-

09

Aug

-09

Mar

-10



3992


-22%

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

Mar

-03

Oct

-03

May

-04

Dec

-04

Jul-0

5

Feb

-06

Sep

-06

Apr

-07

Nov

-07

Jun-

08

Jan-

09

Aug

-09

Mar

-10



7.7%

4027

3738


-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Mar

-03

Oct

-03

May

-04

Dec

-04

Jul-0

5

Feb

-06

Sep

-06

Apr

-07

Nov

-07

Jun-

08

Jan-

09

Aug

-09

Mar

-10


Beginning of Global Recovery-2%

-11%

-6%

Sectoral & External Balances in the US

Gross Private Investment(in % of GDP, last 4 quarters)

* Includes consumption of fixed capital

Current Account(in % of GDP, last 4 quarters)

Gross Private Saving*(in % of GDP, last 4 quarters)

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



18%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



14%

18%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



-3%

Aggregate Demand in China

Private Consumption(bn of 1990 Yuans)

Total Investment(bn of 1990 Yuans)

Exports(bn of 1990 Yuans)

2600

3000

3400

3800

4200

4600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


6.5%

Pre- Crisis Global Trend

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


14.1%

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


-19.9%



19%

8%

9%

14%

0%

7%

14%

21%

GDP: 11.7%

2003-2007 2008-2009

Change in Sources of Growth in China(Annual Growth)

Investment Consumption PublicExpenditure

Exports

0%

16%

9% 9%GDP: 9.3%

Exports Investment Consumption PublicExpenditure

0%

7%

14%

21%

Fiscal Accounts in China

Fiscal Revenues(in bn of 2000 Yuan) (in bn of 2000 Yuan)

Primary Expenditure Fiscal Balance(in % of GDP)


1900

2550

3200

3850

4500

5150

5800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1.9%

Pre-Crisis Global Trend

2100

3200

4300

5400

6500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Pre-Crisis Global Trend

24%

-3,0%

-2,5%

-2,0%

-1,5%

-1,0%

-0,5%

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0.6%

-2.8%


Sectoral & External Balances in China

Gross Investment(in % of GDP)

Current Account(in % of GDP)

Gross National Savings(in % of GDP)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Mar

-10


11%

6%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009


54% 54%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009


48%

42%

United States China(Current Account; in % of GDP)(Current Account, in % of GDP)

Unwinding of Global Imbalances

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mar-10

11.0%

4.5%

-6.5%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Beginning of Global Financial Crisis

-3.0%

-6.2%

+3.2%

Beginning of Global Financial Crisis

Commodities Prices

World Interest Rates

World Output

Risk Premia


Markets

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

World Output and Domestic Demand

Growth and Composition of World Domestic Demand

Growth in World Output

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2006 2010

4.0%

3.8%

7.8%

51%

49%

1.6%

4.7%

6.2%

25%

75%

Share

Share

Share

Share

Emerging Economies

Industrial Countries

3.6%

5.2%

2.8%

-0.6%

4.8%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Period Average:4.7%

Period Average:2.3%

(US$ PPP, annual rate, %)

(US$, annual rate, %)

Industrial Countries BRICs

Import Composition(% of total imports, 2009)

BRICs includes Brazil, Russia, India and China

Implications of the Shift in Composition of World Demand

15%

19%

36%

30%

14%

36%

25%

25%

Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goodsCapital goods

Consumergoods

Raw materials

Intermediate goods

6.8

5.4

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

2006 Aug-2010

FED Funds Rate(reference rate, %)

World Interest Rates and Capital Markets

US Treasury Yield Curve EMs Bond Yields(EMBI+, %)

-1.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Dec

-06

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep

-07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep

-08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep

-09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

2%

0.25%



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

3m 6m 2y 3y 5y 10y 30y

4.9%4.8%

4.1%

0.14%

2006

2009

Commodity Prices(Annual Average, 2005=100)

Oil Food

Source: IMF

Metals

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2006 2010

20%

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2006 2010

28%

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2006 2010

2%

OUTLINE




The Global Economy

Latin America

Brazil

Mexico


Markets

Commodities Prices

World Interest Rates

World Output

Risk Premia

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY & LATIN AMERICA

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archivo:Flag_of_Mexico.svg

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archivo:Flag_of_Brazil.svg

(quarterly, seasonally adjusted, bn of Pesos of 2003)

Aggregate Demand in Mexico

Private Consumption ExportsTotal Investment(quarterly, seasonally adjusted, bn

of Pesos of 2003)(quarterly, seasonally adjusted, bn

of Pesos of 2003)

4900

5500

6100

6700

7300

Mar-03 May-04 Jul-05 Sep-06 Nov-07 Jan-09 Mar-10


-14.0%

1300

1700

2100

2500



1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600



-16.3%

-24.3%Pre-Global Crisis Trend







Gross Domestic Product Imports

Aggregate Supply in Mexico

(quarterly, seasonally adjusted, in bn of Pesos of 2003) (quarterly, seasonally adjusted, in bn of Pesos of 2003)

7400

7900

8400

8900

9400

9900



-10.1%

1900

2200

2500

2800

3100

3400

3700

4000



-29.2%






Aggregate Demand in Brazil

(quarterly, seasonally adjusted, average 1995=100)

Private Consumption ExportsTotal Investment(quarterly, seasonally adjusted,

average 1995=100)(quarterly, seasonally adjusted,

average 1995=100)

90

105

120

135

150

165

180

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


+0.2%


100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



+3.2%

160

190

220

250

280

310

340

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



-26%

Pre-Global Crisis Trend Pre-Global

Crisis Trend



Gross Domestic Product(quarterly, seasonally adjusted, average 1995=100)

Imports(quarterly, seasonally adjusted, average 1995=100)

Aggregate Supply in Brazil

110

120

130

140

150

160

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



0%

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



-2.2%




7.7%

Change in Sources of Growth in Brazil(Annual Growth)

2003-2007 2009

7.7%

6.9%

4.4%

3.1%

0%

3%

6%

9%

Exports Investment Consumption Public Expenditure

GDP: 4.2%

-4.1%

3.5%

5.6%

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

Exports Investment Consumption Public Expenditure

GDP: 4.4%


Source: INEGI

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep

-04

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep

-05

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan-

10

May

-10

04-07 Average: 105

116

12%

Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep

-04

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep

-05

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan-

10

May

-10

04-07 Average: 52

51

-2%

Mexico Brazil(Sep-05=100)(Jan-03=100)

Forward Looking Indicators: Consumer Confidence



Brazil

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Sep

-05

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep

-10

05-07 Average: 106

15%

122

Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation

(Business Confidence Index, Sep-05=100)

Mexico

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

03-07 Average: 101

86

-15%

Source: INEGI

(Producer Confidence Index, Jan-03=100)

Forward Looking Indicators: Business Confidence



(Dec-06=100)

Mexico Brazil(Dec-06=100)

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Dec

-06

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep

-07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep

-08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep

-09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Dec

-06

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep

-07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep

-08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep

-09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

109

74

-26%

9%

Forward Looking Indicators: Real Exchange Rate



The Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis: Two Latin Americas?

• Net Exporters of Commodities

• Low Exposure of Exports of Goods and Services to Industrial Countries

• High Weight of Interest-Sensitive Components in Aggregate Demand

• Net Importers of Commodities

• High Exposure of Exports of Goods and Services to Industrial Countries

• Low Weight of Interest-Sensitive Components in Aggregate Demand

‘Brazilian Type’ Cluster ‘Mexican Type’ Cluster

Net

Com

mod

ity E

xpor

ts(%

of G

DP

)

Investment / Exports to Industrial Countries

Cluster Analysis

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

“Mexican Type” Cluster

“Brazilian Type” Cluster


“Mexican Type”

MexicoBahamasBarbadosBelizeCosta RicaDominican Rep.El SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaNicaraguaPanamaSuriname

“Brazilian Type”

Brazil

Argentina

Bolivia

Chile

Colombia

Ecuador

Paraguay

Peru

Trinidad and Tobago

Uruguay

Venezuela

Clusters

Net

Com

mod

ity E

xpor

ts(%

of G

DP

)

Investment / Exports to Industrial Countries

Cluster Analysis

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5


“Brazilian Type” Cluster


Average Growth 2010-2011*

4.9%

2.7%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Latin America Average:3,4%


“Brazilian Type” Cluster**

(GDP, annual rates)

* Source: Latin Focus and WEO

** Excludes Venezuela

OUTLINE




The Global Economy

Latin America

THE NEW GLOBAL ECONOMIC ORDER:

Political Risks

Economic Risks

Nationalism

Populism

Extreme Right Movements

Xenophobia

Currency Wars

(Competitive Devaluations)

Trade Wars

(Protectionism)

Financial Panic

RISKS TREATHENING GLOBAL COOPERATION

2010-2020: LATIN AMERICA´S DECADE?THE NEW GLOBAL ECONOMIC ORDER

• Change in trade patterns due to a reallocation of world output and world demand

from industrial countries to emerging markets that have a high propensity to

consume primary commodities

A New Global Economic Order emerging after the global crisis with the

following features:

Under the assumption that global cooperation prevails, Latin America

will likely face very favorable conditions due to:

BRICsRest of

Emerging Markets


Change in Latin America's Trade Patterns

Variation 2006-2009(LAC-7)


LAC-7 is the simple average of the seven major Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. These countries represent 93% of Latin America’s GDP.

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Total Exports: 1%

72%

13%

-7%

2006

2009

IndustrialCountries

57% 26%

BRICs

17%

Rest of EMs

BRICs

11%


65%

24%

Rest of EMs

Exports by Destination(LAC-7)

Trade Patterns in Brazil

Variation 2006-2009


2006

2009

IndustrialCountries

42% 41%

BRICs

18%

Rest of EMs

Exports by Destination

113%

8%

-5%-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

Total Exports: 11%

BRICsRest of

Emerging Markets


9%

49%42%

BRICs

Rest of EMsIndustrialCountries


Trade Patterns in Mexico

Variation 2006-2009


2006

2009

Exports by Destination

93.6%

1.4% 5%BRICs

Rest of EMs

IndustrialCountries

IndustrialCountries

BRICs2.6%

91.6%

5.8%Rest of EMs

63%

8%

-10%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Total Exports: -7.8%

BRICsRest of

Emerging Markets



∆ Ext. Demand å= * ja jGDP∆

ja = Exports to Country j / Total Exports= GDP Variation of country jjGDP∆

R2= 70%

Exports Variation(left axis)

External Demand Variation

(right axis)

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

0%

-10%

-5%

5%

10%

15%

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2009


57% 26%

BRICs

17%

Rest of EMs

2013*


BRICs

Rest of EMs52% 25%

23%

Exports & External Demand(LAC-7, ED and Exports Variation, in %)


LAC-7 is the simple average of the seven major Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. These countries represent 93% of Latin America’s GDP.

Exports by Destination(LAC-7)

Change in Latin America's Trade Patterns:Looking Ahead

2010-2020: LATIN AMERICA´S DECADE?

• Ample availability of relatively cheap credit and capital due to a reallocation of

world savings towards EMs in general and Latin America in particular

THE NEW GLOBAL ECONOMIC ORDER





following features:



LAC-7

112Brazil 52

Capital Inflows(LAC-7, Cumulative quarterly capital inflows,

billions of US$)

LAC-7 is the simple average of the seven major Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico,

Peru and Venezuela. These countries represent 91% of Latin America’s GDP.

Main Capital Inflows Recipients(LAC-7, Mar-10)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

205 204

63

Pre Global -Crisis Maximum Level: 237

204

Mar-2010

97

Dec-2006

Billions of US$


Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy

Inflows Shares

GDP Shares

Argentina1%Others

22%

Mexico22%

Brazil55%

Mexico24%

Others22%

Brazil45%

Argentina 8%

Capital Flows to Latin America


35

52

69

86

103

120

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

102

65



Dec-06

LAC-7

Billions of US$

26Brazil

65

Mar-10

19

61

Composition of Capital Flows to Latin America

Financial Inflows(LAC-7, Cumulative quarterly capital inflows,

billions of US$)

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150



103

138

-30

FDI Inflows(LAC-7, Cumulative quarterly capital inflows,

billions of US$)

Dec-06

Mar-10

Inflows by Type

FDI Inflows

63%

Financial Inflows

37%

Financial Inflows

68%

FDI Inflows

32%

Dec-06

LAC-7

Billions of US$

85Brazil

138

Mar-10

34

36

(LAC-7)





2006

(% of total FDI)


2009

Capital Flows to Latin America: FDI by Country of Origin

0.1%8.7%

92%

Rest of EMs

0.3% 6.8%

93%

Rest of EMsBRICs

BRICs

Brazil

IndustrialCountries

IndustrialCountries

0.3% 1.0%

98.7%

Rest of EMsBRICs

1.1% 0.6%

98.8%

Rest of EMsBRICs

Mexico

IndustrialCountries

IndustrialCountries



ManufacturingIndustries

Agriculture

Agriculture

2006

(% of total FDI)

2009

Capital Flows to Latin America: FDI by Sector

Peru Mexico

Agriculture

8%Services

19%

43%

Extractive Activities

30%


50%

48%

0%

2%


Services


0%

57%

42%

0%

Services


38%

57%

0%

5%

Agriculture Extractive Activities


Services





• A new financial architecture that will reduce the risk of contagion and the

probability of liquidity crises in EMs in general and Latin America in particular






following features:



At the multilateral level, institutionalization and improvement of ILOLR mechanisms used during the global crisis, with the following features:

The IMF and MDBs are endowed with adequate resources for the task

These features would constitute the basis for a de facto incentive-compatible ‘Long-Term Stability Pact’ for EMs

• Speed

• Power

• Automaticity

• Ex-ante eligibility

At the country level, adoption of macroeconomic policy frameworks to promote stability and gain ex-ante access to ILOLR facilities

* 1. Izquierdo, A. and Talvi, E. 2009. “A Stability Pact à la Maastricht for Emerging Markets” , www.voxEU.org 2. Izquierdo, A. and Talvi, E. (coords.), 2009. “Policy Trade-offs for Unprecedented Times: Confronting the Global Crisis In Latin America”, Inter-American Development Bank, Washignton DC. 3. Izquierdo, A. and Talvi, E. (coords.), 2010. “The Aftermath of the Crisis. Policy Lessons and Challenges Ahead for Latin America and the Caribbean”, Inter American Development Bank, Washignton DC.

TOWARDS A NEW FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE FOR EMERGING MARKETS: KEY FEATURES*




An initial situation in Latin America characterized by a combination of relatively

strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a gradual process of increasing

democratization and institutionalization, which place the region in a favorable

position to become a preferred destination for capital inflows

• A new financial architecture that will reduce the risk of contagion and the

probability of liquidity crises in EMs in general and Latin America in particular






following features:



India 5%

EA-5 7%

EM Europe

19%

Rest EMs16%

China17%

LAC12%

Middle East23%

2006

Middle East 8% (Share of GDP 16%)

China 25% (Share of GDP 27%)Rest of EMs 12%

(Share of GDP 13%)

EM Europe 9% (Share of GDP 9%)

EA-5 12% (Share of GDP 7%)

India 8% (Share of GDP 7%)

LAC 25% (Share of GDP 20%)

LosersWinners

2009

52%

25%

2% 0%

-48%

-67%

-76%-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

LAC EA-5 India China Rest of EMs

EM Europe

Middle East

(share in total capital inflows to EMs)

Variation 2006- 2009 (% variation)

Main Capital Inflows Recipients

Capital Inflows to EMs

EA-5 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, The Philippines and Vietnam.

EM Europe refers to Central and Eastern Europe as defined by WEO

Capital Inflows to EMs: -30%

Source: WEO

OUTLINE




The Global Economy

Latin America

Rethink international trade policy for the new global context

POLICY CHALLENGES FOR LATIN AMERICA

Avoid financial bubbles caused by strong capital inflows that may make countries prone to crisis

Take advantage of the bonanza to develop physical, technological and institutional infrastructure and to invest in human capital in order to lay a sound foundation for self-sustained, productivity-induced growth when favorable external conditions subside

Remove distortions to facilitate intra-firm and intra-sector restructuring that will be necessary to accommodate the change in trade patterns and the new constellation of relative prices

Respond efficiently to the legitimate social claims for redistribution that will emerge in a context in which, a high-commodity-price/low–cost-of-capital driven expansion, is likely to produce a deterioration in the distribution of income

THE NEW GLOBAL ECONOMIC ORDER:

Protect political institutions from the potential corrosive effects of commodity price booms

November 7th, 2010

Prepared for Presentation at the XLIV FELABAN Annual AssemblyPunta del Este, Uruguay

Ernesto Talvi

Director Académico de CERES Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

Opportunities, Risks and Challenges Ahead

Latin America’s Insertion in the Post-Financial Crisis Global Order:

November 7 th, 2010 Prepared for Presentation at the XLIV FELABAN Annual Assembly Punta del Este,...

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