Novel databases for exposure to cosmetics and personal care products Damien Comiskey, Mathematical...
-
Upload
lydia-durrance -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
0
Transcript of Novel databases for exposure to cosmetics and personal care products Damien Comiskey, Mathematical...
Novel databases for exposure to cosmetics and personal care products
Damien Comiskey, Mathematical Models and StatisticsCreme Global
13th October 2014
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
G L O B A L
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
𝐴𝑔𝑔𝐸𝑥𝑝=𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦×𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡×𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑆𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
𝐴𝑔𝑔𝐸𝑥𝑝=𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦×𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡×𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑆𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
𝐴𝑔𝑔𝐸𝑥𝑝=𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦×𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡×𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑆𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
𝐴𝑔𝑔𝐸𝑥𝑝=𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦×𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡×𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑆𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
𝐴𝑔𝑔𝐸𝑥𝑝=𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦×𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡×𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑆𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
𝐴𝑔𝑔𝐸𝑥𝑝=𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦×𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡×𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑆𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎
𝐴𝑔𝑔𝐸𝑥𝑝=𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦×𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡×𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
h𝐵𝑜𝑑𝑦𝑤𝑒𝑖𝑔 𝑡
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
Daily Aggregate Exposure
Population Exposure Modelling
Databases Required
Frequency of use Amount per use Concentration of fragrance Surface areas Body weights Retention Penetration
Frequency of Use
Survey Demographics
Age groups EU US
Male Female Male Female
18-24 1490 2557 412 1228
25-34 2980 3078 603 1954
35-49 4230 4763 838 2200
50-64 3210 2966 748 1541
65+ 560 375 289 424
Total 12470 13739 2890 7347
Online Consumption Diaries
Personal Care Products• Mass Market
• Prestige• OtherBody Lotion
• Deodorant/Anti-Perspirant Spray• Deodorant/Anti-Perspirant NonSpray
• Body SprayDeodorant• Toothpaste• MouthwashOral Care
• Lipstick• Liquid/Makeup Foundation
• Hair Styling Products (excl. Spray)Cosmetic Styling
• Eau de Toilette• Eau de Parfum
• After Shave / Cologne (Splash-on)Hydroalcholics
• Showergel / Body Wash• Shampoo
• Rinse-off ConditionerShower Products
• Face Moisturizer• Hand CreamMoisturizers
Application Sites
Moisturizers
Face+Eyes+Lips
Mouth
Chest
Stomach
Intimate Parts
Neck
Arms+Wrists
Underarms
Hands+Palms
Legs
Feet
Scalp
Back
Bottom
Bodyweight and Height
US 2007-2008 NHANES survey
Bodyweight and height data for 8,861 US subjects
EU NHANES data scaled based on EU
country average weights and heights
Surface Area Calculations
Dubois Formula
head, trunk, arms, hands, legs and feet
Surface Area Calculations
Body Part Surface AreaScalp 1/2 HeadNeck 1/10 TrunkChest 1/4 TrunkStomach 1/5 TrunkBack 3/10 TrunkArms Arms – (1/4 Hands)Wrists 1/4 HandsPalms 1/2 HandsIntimate parts 1/100 Total Body
Body Part Surface Area Reference
Face 1/2 Head – 28.8cm2 Api et al. (2008); 28.8 cm2 refers to combined surface areas of eyes and lipsEyes 24cm2 Bremme et al. (2003)Lips 4.8cm2 Ferrario et al. (2000)Mouth 212cm2 Collins and Dawes, (1987), Ferrario et al. (2000)Behind ears 36cm2 Estimated based on expert judgementUnderarms 200cm2 Bremme et al. (2003)
Relative
Absolute
Amount used
Europe COLIPA (Hall et al., 2007; 2011) USA CTFA (Loretz et al., 2005; 2006; 2008) Hydro alcoholics Tozer et al. (2004)
Fragrances and Mixtures
Fragrances and Mixtures
Concentration in Product = Level 1 x Level 2
Retention
ProductDermal Retention
Factor (%)Ingestion Factor
(%)Body lotion (mass, prestige, or other) 100 -Deodorant spray 23.5 -Deodorant roll-on 100 -Body spray 100 -Toothpaste 10 5*Mouthwash 1 10*Lipstick 100 -Liquid makeup foundation 100 -Hair styling 10 -Eau de toilette 100 -Eau de parfum 100 -Aftershave 100 -Shower gel 1 -Shampoo 1 -Rinse-off conditioner 1 -Face moisturiser 100 -Hand cream 100 -
𝐴𝑔𝑔𝐸𝑥𝑝=𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦×𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡×𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
h𝐵𝑜𝑑𝑦𝑤𝑒𝑖𝑔 𝑡
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
Exposure
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
Combining Databases
Pick a subject in the diary
Combining Databases
Pick a subject in the diary Find their age, gender and country
Combining Databases
Pick a subject in the diary Find their age, gender and country Select their height and weight
– calculate their body surface areas
Combining Databases
Pick a subject in the diary Find their age, gender and country Select their height and weight
– calculate their body surface areas Determine which products they use in a day
and how often
Combining Databases
Pick a subject in the diary Find their age, gender and country Select their height and weight
– calculate their body surface areas Determine which products they use in a day
and how often For each product randomly select:
– Amount based on demographic– Fragrance concentration
Calculating Exposure
Calculate their daily aggregate exposure
Repeat for all subjects in survey
Lower-end consumer Higher-end consumer
Lower-end consumer Higher-end consumer
Maximum Consumer Exposure
Lower-end consumer Higher-end consumer
95th Percentile Consumer Exposure
Lower-end consumer Higher-end consumer
Median Consumer Exposure
Lower-end consumer Higher-end consumer
Average Consumer Exposure
Analysing the Databases
Product Use, Co-Use and Non-use statistics– per subject– Per occasion
Frequency of use
Per subject
Product Combination % of Subjects
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste, Shampoo 6.19%
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste, Shampoo, Showergel 2.53%
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste, AfterShave, Shampoo 2.31%
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste 1.53%
Toothpaste, Shampoo 1.24%
DeoSpray, Toothpaste, Shampoo 1.21%
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste, Mouthwash, Shampoo 1.18%
Per occasion
Product Combination % of OccasionsToothpaste 25.60%Toothpaste, Mouthwash 4.38%DeoRollOn, Toothpaste 3.99%DeoRollOn 3.75%Shampoo 2.84%Showergel 2.28%Toothpaste, FaceMoisturizer 2.01%DeoRollOn, Toothpaste, Shampoo 1.96%
Body Lotion Mass vs. Prestige (EU+US)
Consumer Type Total Population
Gender: Male Only
Gender: Female Only
Age: 18-34 Only
Age: 35-49 Only
Age: 50+ Only
Non-Consumers80.91% 92.26% 70.08% 81.96% 81.02% 79.93%
Consumers: Mass Only10.87% 5.19% 16.28% 10.00% 10.63% 11.79%
Consumers: Prestige Only2.99% 0.47% 5.40% 2.94% 3.12% 2.93%
Consumers: Mass and Prestige0.67% 0.03% 1.28% 0.71% 0.89% 0.44%
Consumers: Other4.57% 2.05% 6.96% 4.39% 4.34% 4.91%
Co-use statistics on Per Subject basis, for Deodorants, and for the Total Population
Product Combination % of Subjects % (Cumulative)
DeoRollOn 59.39% 59.39%DeoSpray 17.21% 76.60%(no product) 10.04% 86.65%DeoRollOn, BodySpray 5.55% 92.19%DeoSpray, BodySpray 4.25% 96.44%DeoSpray, DeoRollOn 2.07% 98.50%BodySpray 1.05% 99.55%DeoSpray, DeoRollOn, BodySpray 0.45% 100.00%
Frequency of UseInterestingly, the usage frequency of Face Moisturizer is very similar to that of Mouthwash. Again, distinct modes are seen at ~1, ~7 and
~14 uses per week.
Frequency of Use
In the 18-34 Age Group (below), the mean usage frequency for males is 4.53 times per week, and for females it is 3.85 times per week.
Thank you
Damien Comiskey, CEO13th October 2014
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
G L O B A LG L O B A L
Thank you
Damien Comiskey, CEO13th October 2014
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
G L O B A LG L O B A L
Product category Co-use
Product Combination % of Subjects
Deodorant, Oral Care, Shower Products 19.22%Deodorant, Oral Care, Hydro-alcoholics, Shower Products 11.78%Deodorant, Oral Care, Cosmetic Styling, Hydro-alcoholics, Shower Products, Moisturizers
8.07%
Deodorant, Oral Care, Cosmetic Styling, Shower Products 6.77%Deodorant, Oral Care, Cosmetic Styling, Hydro-alcoholics, Shower Products
5.36%
Deodorant, Oral Care, Cosmetic Styling, Shower Products, Moisturizers
4.20%
Product Category
Product Combination % of Subjects
Body lotion
(no product) 81%Body lotion (mass) 11%Body lotion (other) 5%Body lotion (prestige) 3%Body lotion (mass), body lotion (prestige) 1%
Deodorant
Deodorant roll-on 59%Deodorant spray 17%(no product) 10%Deodorant roll-on, body spray 6%Deodorant spray, body spray 4%Deodorant spray, deodorant roll-on 2%Body spray 1%Deodorant spray, deodorant roll-on, body spray <1%
Oral care
Toothpaste 66%Toothpaste, mouthwash 27%(no product) 5%Mouthwash 2%
Benzaldehyde
Cinnamaldehyde
Limonene
Revolution in Safety Assessment
Big DATA
Statistical Analyses
Intuitive Software
Cloud Computing
Aggregate Exposure
Expert Models
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
Example - Vanillin
Vanillin – Approximate relative contribution to P95 aggregate exposure
Example - PEA
Example - PEA
PEA – Approximate relative contribution to P95 aggregate exposure
Inhalation Exposure – Limonene
Ingestion Exposure - Limonene
Dermal Exposure per Surface Area (BarSoap) - Limonene
Total Exposure (per unit BW) - Limonene
Total Exposure (per unit BW) - Limonene
Revolution in Safety Assessment
Big DATA
Expert Models
Statistical Analyses
Intuitive Software
Cloud Computing
Aggregate Exposure
Revolution in Safety Assessment
Big DATA
Expert Models
Statistical Analyses
Intuitive Software
Cloud Computing
Aggregate Exposure
Thank you
Damien Comiskey, Project Manager, Modelling and Statistics13th October 2014
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
G L O B A LG L O B A L
Thank you
Cronan McNamara, CEO20th November 2013
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
G L O B A LG L O B A L
Thank you
Cronan McNamara, CEO20th November 2013
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
G L O B A LG L O B A L
Creme RIFM Model Options
RIFM Members Only
RIFM Model - Options
Level 0 User – Read Only
Level 1 User – Summary Statistics Graphs
Level 2 User – Create Tables
Level 3 User – Upload Large Data Tables; Advanced Features
Pricing Structure – Per Annum
# of Users Level 0 Per User
Level 1 Per User
Level 2 Per User
Level 3 Per User
1 €1,500 €5,000 €16,000 €32,00023 €1,150 €4,500 €15,250 €26,500456 €900 €4,000 €14,750 €19,2007891011 €730 €3,600 €14,000 €16,800to1415 €675 €3,450 €13,000 €15,600to20
21+ €620 €3,300 €12,000 €14,400
Thank you
Cronan McNamara, CEO20th November 2013
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
G L O B A LG L O B A L
Thank you
Cronan McNamara, CEO20th November 2013
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
G L O B A LG L O B A L
Thank you
Cronan McNamara, CEO20th November 2013
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
G L O B A LG L O B A L
EU amounts dataHall et al. (2007)
496 subjects: EU, M/F, aged 17-74 Empirical data: each subject’s average
amount per use Body Lotion Deodorant Spray & Roll-on Toothpaste Lipstick Shampoo Face moisturizer
EU amounts dataHall et al. (2011)
501 subjects: EU, M/F, aged 17-74 Empirical data: each subject’s average
amount per useMouthwash
Liquid makeup foundationHair stylingShower gelHand cream
US amounts dataLoretz et al. (2005)
Summary statistics and distribution fit: average amount per use360 subjects: US, F, aged 19-65