NOT So Risky Business
Transcript of NOT So Risky Business
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NOT So Risky Business
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1984 – Founded in California
1986 – Shipped first multi -protocol router
1990 – Launched IPO: traded on NASDAQ
2006 – Launched “The Human Network “
2012 – Reorganized business into 3 geographic regions
2014 – Entering the cloud market
HISTORY
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Solve customers’ most important business challenges by
delivering intelligent networks and technology architectures
built on integrated products, services, and software platforms
MISSION
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Designs, manufactures networking equipment
Help organizations utilize resources more effectively through
networking
Overcome limitations inherent in basic technology of local and
wide area networking protocols
WHAT DOES CISCO DO?
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Enterprise
Service Providers
Commercial
Public Sector
CUSTOMERS AND MARKETS
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Large regional, national, or global organizations
Often employ >1000 employees
Offer service and support packages, financing, and managed
network services
Sold through 3 rd party application and technology vendors
ENTERPRISE
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Regional, national, and international wireline, internet, cable,
and wireless providers
Offer routing and switching, optical, security, video, mobility,
and network management products, systems, and services for
their own networks
SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Smaller companies with <1000 employees
Require same technologies as enterprise customers but less
complex and at a smaller scale
COMMERCIAL
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Federal, state, and local governments, and educational
institutions.
Require unique IT, collaboration, and networking needs within a
multivendor environment
PUBLIC SECTOR
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66%
20%
14%
Americas
EMEA
APJC
SERVICE REVENUE BY SEGMENT
(2013)
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REVENUE BY GEOGRAPHY
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49.67%
50.33%
United States
Rest of World
EMPLOYEES BY GEOGRAPHY
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21.20%
32.37%
36.78%
9.66%
Cost of Sales
Researc and
Development
Sales and Marketing
General and
Adminstrative
EMPLOYEES BY SEGMENT
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78%
22%
Product
Services
TOTAL REVENUE: $48,607 MILLION
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Switching
NGN Routing
Service Provider Video
Collaboration
Wireless
Data Center
Security
Other Products and Services
PRODUCT & SERVICES
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$14,589
$8,382
$3,861
$4,193
$1,659
$1,298
$1,341 $1,003
Switching
NGN Routing
Service Video Provider
Collaboration
Wireless
Data Center
Security
Other
BREAKDOWN OF PRODUCT REVENUE 2012
(IN MILLIONS)
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$14,741
$8,230
$4,852
$3,956
$2,166
$2,073$1,347 $664
Switching
NGN Routing
Service Video Provider
Collaboration
Wireless
Data Center
Security
Other
BREAKDOWN OF PRODUCT REVENUE 2013
(IN MILLIONS)
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Integral networking technology
Offer many forms of connectivity to end users, workstations, IP
phones, access points, and servers and also function as
aggregators on LANs and WANs.
Kinds of Switches
Fixed-configuration switches
Modular switches
Storage
SWITCHING
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SWITCHING MARKET: DOMINATION
70%
5%
25%
Cisco
HP
Others
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Technologies interconnects public and private wireline and
mobile networks for mobile, data, voice, and video applications
High-End Routers
Cisco Aggregation Services Routers (ASRs)
Cisco Carrier Routing Systems (CRS)
Midrange and Low-End Routers
Cisco Integrated Services Routers (ISRs)
Other NGN Routing
Optical networking products
Other routing products
NGN ROUTING
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Enable service providers and content originators to deliver
entertainment, information, and communication services
Service Provider Video Infrastructure
Video Software and Solutions
SERVICE PROVIDER VIDEO
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integrates voice, video, data, and mobile applications on fixed
and mobile networks across a wide range of devices and
endpoints
Unified Communications:
IP phones
Call center and messaging products
Unified communications infrastructure products
Web-based collaborative offerings (“WebEx”)
COLLABORATION
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Include wireless access points; standalone, switch -converged, and cloud
managed solutions; and network managed services
Provide simplified management and mobile device troubleshooting features
Reduce operational cost and maximize flexibi l i ty and rel iabi l i ty
Customized chipset development to del iver innovative radio frequency (RF)
Key Products
Cisco Aironet Series
Access point modules for 3600 Series (802.11ac, 3G, WSSI)
Control lers (standalone and integrated)
Meraki wireless cloud solutions
WIRELESS
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Fastest growing major product category for the past three fiscal years
Unites computing, networking, storage, management, and vir tual ization
Key Products
Cisco Unified Computing System (UCS):
• Cisco UCS B -Series Blade Servers
• Cisco UCS C -Series Rack Servers
• Cisco UCS Fabric Interconnects
• Cisco UCS Manager and Cisco UCS Central Sof tware
• Cisco UCS Director
Server Access Vir tual ization:
•Cisco Nexus 1000V
• Cisco Nexus 1000V InterCloud
DATA CENTER
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Identity, network, and content security solutions
Firewall , intrusion prevention, remote access, vir tual private networks (VPNs),
unified cl ients, network admission control , web gateways, and email
gateways
AnyConnect Secure Mobil i ty Cl ient solution enables users to access networks
with their mobile device of choice, such as laptops and smartphone -based
mobile devices
SECURITY
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Service $9,403
Product $4,020
Total $13,423
DEFERRED REVENUES IN MILLIONS
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Ability to provide broad range of products/services
Product Performance
Price
Market Presence
Ability to introduce new products
Ability to provide value-added
Ability to provide financing
RISK FACTORS
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MARKET LEADERSHIP
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CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
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THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING
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FINANCIALS
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Metric Threshold Pass?
Gross Profit Margin 58.94% ≥ 20% Yes
SGA % of GP 40.79% ≤ 80% Yes
R&D % of GP 21.96% ≤ 10% No
DD%A of GP 8.26% ≤ 10% Yes
Interest % of GP 5.71% ≤ 15% Yes
Net Profit Margin 17.07% ≥ 10% Yes
BUFFETTOLOGY
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Metric Threshold Pass?
Current Ratio 2.65 ≥ 1 Yes
Obligation Ratio 1.52 < 5 years Yes
Adj. Debt to
Shareholders0.76 < 0.8 Yes
Return on Equity 14.58% ≥ 15% No
Return on Capital 11.94% ≥ 15% No
CAPEX % of NP 14.50% ≤ 25% Yes
Dividend Payout
Ratio44.45% ≤ 60% Yes
BUFFETTOLOGY
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0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
NET PROFIT MARGIN
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0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
CURRENT RATIO
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$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
$11,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
NET INCOME
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Net Profit
Margin
Total Asset
Turnover
Financial
Leverage
Multiplier
Return on
Equity
2011 15.02% .50 1.84 13.85%
2012 17.46% .50 1.79 15.62%
2013 20.54% .48 1.71 16.87%
TTM 17.07% .49 1.76 14.58%
DUPONT
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0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
RETURN ON EQUITY & CAPITAL
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As of July 27, 2013 the Board of Directors had authorized the
repurchase of up to $82 billion of common stock
SHARE BUYBACKS
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5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
TOTAL SHARES OUTSTANDING (IN MILLIONS)
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GuruFocus
Predictability:
3.5 out of 5
Number of Gurus holding:
18
Value Line
Financial Strength: A++
Earnings Predictability:
85
Stock Price Stability: 70
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DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS –
10 YEAR EPS GROWTH
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DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS –
SLOWEST FCF GROWTH
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DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW - BREAKEVEN
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CONSCIOUS INVESTOR
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Earnings Per Share Growth 26.09%
EPS Growth Stability 99.76%
Sales Per Share Growth 6.26%
Sales Growth Stability 99.44%
3 YEAR DEFAULT
Price $ 23.00
Earnings Per Share (TTM) $ 1.51
Price to Earnings Ratio 13.85
Growth Rate 26.09%
Payout 16.00%
Return per year 25.14%
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Earnings Per Share Growth 8.15%
EPS Growth Stability 86.09%
Sales Per Share Growth 7.85%
Sales Growth Stability 96.14%
6 YEAR DEFAULT
Price $ 23.00
Earnings Per Share (TTM) $ 1.51
Price to Earnings Ratio 13.85
Growth Rate 8.15%
Payout 16.00%
Return per year 7.34%
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Earnings Per Share Growth 26.09%
EPS Growth Stability 99.76%
Sales Per Share Growth 6.26%
Sales Growth Stability 99.44%
TESTING CAPACITY TO SUFFER
Price $ 23.00
Earnings Per Share (TTM) $ 1.51
Price to Earnings Ratio 12.63
Growth Rate 6.36%
Payout 16.00%
Return per year 3.75%
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Earnings Per Share Growth 26.09%
EPS Growth Stability 99.76%
Sales Per Share Growth 6.26%
Sales Growth Stability 99.44%
TESTING CAPACITY TO FURTHER SUFFER
Price $ 23.00
Earnings Per Share (TTM) $ 1.51
Price to Earnings Ratio 11.5
Growth Rate 6%
Payout 16.00%
Return per year 1.6%
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Earnings Per Share Growth 26.09%
EPS Growth Stability 99.76%
Sales Per Share Growth 6.26%
Sales Growth Stability 99.44%
BREAKEVEN
Price $ 23.00
Earnings Per Share (TTM) $ 1.51
Price to Earnings Ratio 11
Growth Rate 5%
Payout 16.00%
Return per year -0.19%
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INTRA – PORTFOLIO
VALUATIONS
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PRICE TO EARNINGS GROWTH
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PRICE TO EARNINGS GROWTH
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PRICE TO BOOK
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ENTERPRISE VALUE TO EBITDA
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Company Cisco Systems Inc Qualcomm Inc Hewlett-Packard Co Nokia Oyj
Number of Guru
Holders18 12 14 1
Market Value
(mil)$118,479 $130,996 $59,848 $27,226
Revenue (mil) $48,607 $24,866 $112,298 $17,651
P/E(ttm) 15.20 19.40 11.60 0
P/S 2.59 5.24 0.55 1.02
P/B 2.13 3.42 2.16 2.96
Yield (%) 3.04 1.80 1.84 2
ROA (%) 9.87 15.06 4.84 -10.35
ROE (%) 16.88 18.99 18.75 -39.11
Operating
Margin (%)23.03 29.08 6.35 -7.62
Net Margin (%) 20.54 27.56 4.55 -10.29
INDUSTRY COMPARISON
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Interest Rate Amount Due on
Float- Rate $ 1,250.00 2014
1.63% $ 2,000.00 2014
2.90% $ 500.00 2014
5.50% $ 3,000.00 2016
3.15% $ 750.00 2017
4.95% $ 2,000.00 2019
4.45% $ 2,500.00 2020
5.90% $ 2,000.00 2039
5.50% $ 2,000.00 2040
DEBT STRUCTURE
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Amount Due $ 12,000.00
Net Income in 2014 $ 10,866.00
DEBT DUE BY 2020
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The primary reasons for the low volumes were a slowdown in
emerging markets, weaker demand from service providers, and
high-end product transitions taking time to accelerate
NEGATIVE HEADLINES
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GREAT COMPANY
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VAN DEN BERG METRICS
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22.06
20.09
24.56
16.88
21.04
17.42
13.71
10.72
13.7715.30
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
PRICE TO EARNINGS
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33.69
37.77
22.4721.20
19.92
13.1012.06
17.8016.30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
SHILLER PRICE TO EARNINGS
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6.26
3.97
5.84
6.647.07
8.68
10.47
6.53
5.30 5.37
3.112.61
4.08 4.30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
PRICE TO TANGIBLE BOOK
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34.32
24.89
30.94
22.74
18.41
15.55
20.50
12.49
14.48 14.60
9.928.35
11.79 11.10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
PRICE TO FREE CASHFLOW
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6.71
5.09
3.94
5.18
3.43 3.583.37
2.061.87
2.832.63
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
PRICE TO SALES
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6.00
4.41
6.80
6.03
4.29
3.41
4.59
2.79 2.842.64
1.371.13
2.131.75
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
ENTERPRISE VALUE TO REVENUE
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17.12
19.82
17.18
12.6212.18
14.24
8.95
10.47
8.78
5.40
3.90
7.31 7.01
0
5
10
15
20
25
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
ENTERPRISE VALUE TO EBITDA
![Page 69: NOT So Risky Business](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022021916/620f9a287b231f6cfb1f2d36/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
28.59
26.28
21.12
14.34 13.87
18.59
11.68
14.02
11.56
7.70
5.18
9.24 9.30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM
ENTERPRISE VALUE TO EBIT
![Page 70: NOT So Risky Business](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022021916/620f9a287b231f6cfb1f2d36/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
0
1
2
3
4
5Predict / Consist
Financial Health
Under Valued
Shareholder Friendly
Economic Moat
Growth Potential
SNAPSHOT OF COMPANY
5 – Strong
0 – Weak
![Page 71: NOT So Risky Business](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022021916/620f9a287b231f6cfb1f2d36/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Write 2 puts with $23.00 per share strike price at a limit of
$1.00 per contract with an expiration date of 06/21/2014
RECOMMENDATION