Norwegian Credit Market Overview - Danske...

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This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors

Norwegian Credit Market Overview

7 November 2017

Haseeb Syed Bendik Engebretsen David Boyle

Head of Credit Research Norway Credit Research Analyst Credit Research Analyst

Phone +47 85 40 54 19 Phone +47 85 40 69 14 Phone + 47 85 40 54 17

Mobile +47 97 98 78 82 Mobile +47 92 88 12 10 Mobile + 47 47 95 82 77

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Investment Research www.danskebank.com/CI Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 17 of this report.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.danskebank.com/CI

Moody’s corporate credit spreads – spreads back to tight levels

2

* Premiums calculated as bp Low rating – bp High rating.

Source: Moody’s Investor Service, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

Moody’s ‘B’ spreads over LIBOR by maturity (bp) Moody’s ‘BBB’ spreads over LIBOR by maturity (bp)

Moody’s five-year premiums by rating (bp)* Moody’s five-year spreads over LIBOR by rating (bp)

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry

Nor. vs Eur. spreads

Spreads and oil

Relative pricing

International spreads

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17

3 years 5 years 7 years

63

102

134

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210


3 Year 5 Year 7 Year

102

224

370

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


Baa2 Ba2 B2Aaa Aa2 A2 Baa2 Ba2 B2 Caa-C

Aaa 0 17 56 99 220 366 440

Aa2 -17 0 40 82 203 350 423

A2 -56 -40 0 42 163 310 383

Baa2 -99 -82 -42 0 121 268 341

Ba2 -220 -203 -163 -121 0 146 220

B2 -366 -350 -310 -268 -146 0 73

Caa-C -440 -423 -383 -341 -220 -73 0

Norwegian five-year ‘B’ index up some 20bps in October; five-year ‘BBB’ index remains stable

European vs Norwegian investment-grade spreads (bp)

3

NOK ‘BB’ spread curves: YTD spread tightening

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

European vs Norwegian high-yield spreads (bp)

NOK IG spread curves: YTD spread tightening

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


0

50

100

150

200

Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17

bps o

ver

base r

ate

NOK 5-year A-index

NOK 5-year BBB-index

iTraxx Main

0

500

1,000

1,500

Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17

bps o

ver

base r

ate

5-Years NOK BB spread index

5-Years NOK B spread index

iTraxx Crossover

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Avera

ge s

pre

ad (

bps)

Years to maturity

BB curve November 2017 BB curve January 2017

85bps tightening

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Avera

ge s

pre

ad (

bps)

Years to maturity

BBB curve November 2017 BBB curve January 2017

Norwegian five-year ‘B’ index up some 20bps in October; five-year ‘BBB’ index remains stable

Norwegian investment grade vs oil price (Brent)

4

5Y senior financials vs Norwegian corporate IG (bp)

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

Norwegian senior financials and municipalities (bp)

Norwegian high yield vs oil price (Brent)

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


0

20

40

60

80

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17

US

D/b

bl

bps

5-Years NOK BB spread index

5-Years NOK B spread index

Brent spot (r.h.a)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17

US

D/b

bl

bps

NOK 5-year A-index

NOK 5-year BBB-index

Brent spot (r.h.a)

0

50

100

150

200

Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17

bps

NOK Senior financialsOslo municipalityOMF index

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17

bps

NOK 5-year A-index

NOK Senior financials

Notable outflows in HY in September

Norwegian investment-grade fund flows

High yield outlows of c.NOK440m in September: largest HY outflows YTD. IG inflows continue at decent levels

5

Source: Verdipapirforbundet, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

Norwegian high-yield fund flows

The 10 largest high-yield funds’ AuM (YTD change, NOKm AuM)*

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


28%, 6,939

5%, 6,927

13%, 4,361

-22%, 2,274

-3%, 2,141

47%, 1,744

9%, 1,327

181%, 1,323

-30%, 1,132

51%, 1,020

Handelsbanken Høyrente

DNB High Yield

Holberg Kreditt

Pareto Høyrente

Storebrand Rente+

First Høyrente

SR-Rente

Borea Høyrente

Alfred Berg Høyrente CII (NOK)

Eika Kreditt

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17

Au

M (

NO

Kb

n)

Fund flo

ws (

NO

Kb

n)

Sum HY flows

HY AuM

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17

AuM

(N

OK

bn)

Fund flo

ws (

NO

Kb

n)

Sum IG flows IG AuM

Primary corporate IG activity over past four months

Corporate IG bond issuance by sector

6

Selected corporate investment-grade bond settlements last month

Note: Settlement date may differ from the date of the transaction

Source: Stamdata, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts and table)

Primary market 2017: corporate IG bond volumes

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 2015 2016 2017

Issued v

olu

mes Y

TD

(N

OK

bn)

Jul Aug Sep Oct

0 2 4 6 8 10

Convenience Goods

Transportation

Utilities

Real Estate

Jul-Sep issuances (NOKbn)

Oct issuances (NOKbn)

ISIN Issuer

Issued

(NOKm)

Outstanding

(NOKm) Currency

Settlement

Date

Maturity

Date Risk Coupon (%)

Base rate /

Coupon type Issue Type

NO0010807217 AKA AS 500 500 NOK Oct-17 Oct-22 Senior Secured 3.50 Fixed Bonds

XS1698119382 Assa Abloy AB 200 200 NOK Oct-17 Oct-27 Senior Unsecured 2.68 Fixed Bonds

NO0010806862 Eidsiva Energi AS 750 750 NOK Oct-17 Oct-23 Senior Unsecured 0.84 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010808025 Forskningsveien II AS 715 715 NOK Oct-17 Oct-26 Senior Secured 3.70 Fixed Bonds

NO0010807381 Fredrikstad Energi AS 400 400 NOK Oct-17 Oct-22 Senior Unsecured 1.15 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010808181 Lyse AS 300 300 NOK Oct-17 Oct-29 Senior Unsecured 3.08 Fixed Bonds

NO0010770589 Offentlig Bygg Bodø 1 AS 20 180 NOK Oct-17 Sep-26 Senior Secured 3.80 Fixed Bonds

NO0010752181 Oslo Kontoreiendom II Holding

AS

52 272 NOK Oct-17 Dec-29 Senior Secured 4.15 Fixed Bonds

Primary corporate HY activity over past four months

Primary market 2017: corporate high-yield bond volumes Corporate HY bond issuances by sector

7

Selected corporate high-yield bond settlements last month

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


Note: Settlement date may differ from the date of the transaction.

Source: Stamdata, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts and table)

0

2

4

6

8

10

2014 2015 2016 2017

Issued v

olu

mes Y

TD

(N

OK

bn)

Jul Aug Sep Oct

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Industry

Health Care

Seafood

Oil and gas E&P

Real Estate

Telecom/IT

Shipping

Jul-Sep issuances (NOKbn)

Oct issuances (NOKbn)

ISIN Issuer

Issued

(NOKm)

Outstanding

(NOKm) Currency

Settlement

Date

Maturity

Date Risk Coupon (%)

Base rate /

Coupon type Issue Type

NO0010754534 Bulk Industrier AS 100 500 NOK Oct-17 Dec-18 Senior Secured 7.00 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010805591 Danefjellveien 12 AS 278 278 NOK Oct-17 Oct-22 Senior Secured 4.33 Fixed Bonds

NO0010805609 Danefjellveien 12 AS 22 22 NOK Oct-17 Oct-22 Senior Secured 6.00 Fixed Bonds

NO0010805138 Grundingen Fastighets AB 8 8 USD Oct-17 Oct-21 Senior Secured 6.00 Fixed Bonds

NO0010808256 HI Bidco AS 350 350 NOK Oct-17 Jan-23 Senior Secured 8.00 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010808249 HI Bidco AS 1,000 1,000 NOK Oct-17 Oct-22 Senior Secured 5.50 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010808835 Hospitality Invest AS 850 850 NOK Oct-17 Oct-22 Senior Unsecured 6.00 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010807092 Ice Group Scandinavia

Holdings AS

1,400 1,400 NOK Oct-17 Oct-21 Senior Secured 4.60 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010776776 OSX3 Cayman Limited 17 65 USD Oct-17 Oct-18 Senior Unsecured 35.00 Fixed Bonds

NO0010808231 Tulip Oil Netherlands Offshore

B.V.

811 811 EUR Oct-17 Oct-22 Senior Secured 8.50 EURIBOR 3

Month

Bonds

NO0010807373 Wallenius Wilhelmsen

Logistics ASA

1,000 1,000 NOK Oct-17 Oct-22 Senior Unsecured 3.00 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

Little liquidity in HY bonds at discount over the summer. Longer IG bonds gaining traction

Corporate high-yield secondary market traded volumes (NOKm) Price intervals for traded corp. HY volumes

8

Corporate IG secondary market traded volumes (NOKm) Maturity intervals for traded corp. IG volumes (years)

Note: Figures include volumes from taps and repurchases

Source: Oslo Børs, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2014 2015 2016 2017

Tra

ded v

olu

mes (

NO

Kb

n)

Aug Sep Oct

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2015 2016 2017

Tra

ded v

olu

mes (

NO

Kbn)

Aug Sep Oct

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

<50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 >100

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1 2-5 > 5

Traded volumes and spreads for the most liquid bonds in October

Volumes and spreads for most traded shipping bonds Volumes and spreads for most traded oil service bonds

9

Volumes and spreads for most traded in other* HY industries Volumes and spreads for most traded corp. IG names

Figures may include tap issuances and repurchases.

*Note: In brackets the last traded price; other industries include the sectors of consumer and convenience goods, transportation, industry, auto, telecom and more

Source: Oslo Børs, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


0 20 40 60 80

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

GOLP03 (99.5)

SBULK01 (100.1)

ODF08 (101.6)

SNI05 (99.5)

TKLNG04 (103.5)

TOP05 (99.3)

EULU01 (100.3)

TOP02 (101.6)

TKLNG03 (99.1)

AMTI01 (99.3)

Traded volumes (NOKm)

Average spread (bps)

Average spread

Traded volumes in 20170 100 200 300 400 500 600

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

SIOFF02 (73)

BON05 (101.6)

FOE05 (62.5)

BWO03 (95)

BON03 (103.5)

BLH02 PRO (100.8)

SONG04 (103.9)

SDRL08 (14.8)

BWO04 (96)

BON06 (99.5)



Average spread

Traded volumes in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

VVH01 (100.5)

DETNOR02 (117.4)

DNO01 (98.1)

NAS07 (99.8)

CRAYON02 (103)

GEP01 (88)

IGSH01 (99)

HOIN01 (102.3)

COLG10 PRO (105.4)

NHC01 (100.9)



Average spread

Traded volumes in 2017

0 50 100 150

0 50 100 150

Vasakronan AB (publ) (100.5)

Schibsted ASA (117.4)

Statkraft AS (98.1)

Akershus Energi AS (99.8)

Entra ASA (103)

Thon Holding AS (88)

Agder Energi AS (99)

Fjellinjen AS (102.3)

Yara International ASA (105.4)

Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (100.9)



Average spread

Traded volumes in Oct

Relative value in the oil service industry

Time to maturity over prices – oil service industry

10

Based on mid-price (all charts).

Source: Bloomberg, Oslo Børs, Danske Bank DCM Research

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing (1)


HAVI04

HAVI07

SONG04DEED01 RET

BON03

BWO01

SONG05

BWO02

IOSH01 PRO

EMGS02

NADL01

BLH02 PRO

BOAO02 PRO

FOE05

BWO03

SDRL08

SIOFF02

AWDR01

SOFF04

BON05

BON06BWO04

PGS 2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Mid

price

Time to maturity (years)

TTM (yrs)

Average TTM

Average Mid Price

Relative value in the oil service industry – profitability versus price

LTM EBITDA margin over bond prices – oil service industry

11

Based on mid-price.


Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil



SONG04

DEED01 RET

BON03

BWO01

SONG05

BWO02

NADL01

BLH02 PRO

BOAO02 PRO

FOE05

BWO03

SDRL08

AWDR01

BON05BON06

BWO04

PGS 2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mid

price

LTM EBITDA margin

EBITDA margin

Average EBITDA margin

Average Mid Price

Relative value in the oil services industry – leverage versus price

LTM net debt/EBITDA over bond prices – oil service industry

12

Based on mid-price


Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil



SONG04

DEED01 RET

BON03

BWO01

SONG05

BWO02

NADL01

BLH02 PRO

FOE05

BWO03

SDRL08

AWDR01BON05BON06

BWO04

PGS 2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

Mid

price

LTM NIBD/EBITDA

NIBD/EBITDA

Average NIBD/EBITDA

Average Mid Price

Relative value in the shipping industry

Time to maturity over quoted spread – shipping industry

13

Source: Bloomberg, Oslo Børs, Stamdata, Danske Bank DCM Research

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil



WWI19 PRO

SNI04

ODF06

WWI22

TKLNG02

TOP05

SNI05SFLN03

OCY02

WWI23

SNI06OCY03

TKLNG03

GOLP02

HLNG02

A.P. Møller

GLOG02

ODF07OCY04

TKLNG04ODF08

HLNG03

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Mid

spre

ad o

ver

3M

N (

bps)

Time to maturity (years)

TTM (yrs)

Average TTM

Average Mid spread

Relative value in the shipping industry – profitability versus spread

LTM EBITDA margin over quoted spread – shipping industry

14


Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil



WWI19 PRO

SNI04

ODF06

WWI22

TKLNG02

TOP05

SNI05SFLN03

OCY02

WWI23

SNI06 OCY03

TKLNG03

GOLP02

HLNG02

A.P. MøllerA.P. Møller

A.P. Møller

GLOG02

ODF07

OCY04

TKLNG04ODF08

HLNG03

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mid

spre

ad o

ver

3M

N (

bps)

LTM EBITDA margin

EBITDA MARGIN

Average EBITDA margin

Average Mid spread

Relative value in the shipping industry – leverage versus spread

LTM net debt/EBITDA over quoted spreads – shipping industry

15


Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil



WWI19 PRO

SNI04

ODF06

WWI22

TKLNG02

TOP05

SNI05SFLN03

OCY02

WWI23

SNI06OCY03

TKLNG03

GOLP02

HLNG02

A.P. MøllerA.P. MøllerA.P. Møller

GLOG02

ODF07OCY04

TKLNG04ODF08

HLNG03

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Mid

spre

ad o

ver

3M

N (

bps)

LTM NIBD/EBITDA

NIBD/EBITDA

Average NIBD/EBITDA

Average Mid spread

1616

07/11/2017

Fixed Income Credit Research team

Find the latest Credit Research: :

Danske Bank DCM Research: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch Bloomberg: DNSK<GO>

Thomas Hovard

Head of Credit Research

+45 45 12 85 05

[email protected]

Gabriel Bergin

Strategy, Financials

+46 8 568 80602

[email protected]

Jakob Magnussen

Utilities, Energy

+45 45 12 85 03

[email protected]

Henrik René Andresen

Credit Portfolios

+45 45 13 33 27

[email protected]

Bendik Engebretsen

Industrials & Norwegian HY

+47 85 40 69 14

[email protected]

Brian Børsting

Industrials

+45 45 12 85 19

[email protected]

David Boyle


+47 85 40 54 17

[email protected]

Niklas Ripa

Credit Portfolios

+45 45 12 80 47

[email protected]

Louis Landeman

Industrials, Real Estate

+46 8 568 80524

[email protected]

Mads Rosendal

Industrials, TMT

+45 45 14 88 79

[email protected]

August Moberg

Industrials & Construction

+46 8 568 80593

[email protected]

Jesper Damkjær

Financials

+45 45 12 80 41

[email protected]

Haseeb Syed


+47 85 40 54 19

[email protected]

Katrine Jensen

Financials

+45 45 12 80 56

[email protected]

Christopher Hellesnes

General Industrials

+46 8 568 80547

[email protected]

17

DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Danske Bank DCM Research, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The authors of this research report are Haseeb Syed (Senior Analyst), Bendik

Engebretsen (Analyst) and David Boyle (Analyst).

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prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-U.S. jurisdiction.

Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that

investing in non-U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be

subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Report completed: 7 November 2017 at 08:03 CET

Report disseminated: 7 November 2017 at 09:00 CET

www-2.danskebank.com/Link/researchdisclaimer

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