Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA · 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 16 21 23 25 29 29 27 23 19 15 14 2 8 10 13 13 13...
Transcript of Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA · 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 16 21 23 25 29 29 27 23 19 15 14 2 8 10 13 13 13...
Highlights Q1 2017
Launched 39 new routes for spring/summer 2017, including new intercontinental routes with the MAX
Ranked the 31st most valuable airline brand in the world (up from 44th last year) by Brand Finance
This year’s UNICEF flight went to Mali in Africa, carrying 13 tons of emergency aid and school supplies
Added seven new Boeing 737-800’s and one 787-9 Dreamliner to operations
Leasing operation received one Airbus 320neo in March (to a total three aircraft)
4 % lower unit cost ex. fuel (+4 % incl. fuel)
A soft first quarter with EBITDA ex. other losses/gains negative by NOK 1.1 bn on higher fuel cost and lower unit revenue due to currency and impact of Easter
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6.7 million passengers in Q1 (+14 %)
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Pax (mill) 2.0 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.9 4.9 5.8 6.7
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Pa
sse
ng
ers
(mill
ion
)
+ 14 %
Stable Q1 load factor of 84 % (85 %)
4ASK 2,183 2,674 3,507 4,498 5,266 6,378 9,421 10,056 11,803 14,649
Load Factor 77.2 % 74.8 % 75.1 % 74.3 % 77.2 % 76.1 % 77.3 % 83.0 % 85.2 % 84.4 %
77.2 %74.8 % 75.1 % 74.3 %
77.2 % 76.1 % 77.3 %
83.0 %85.2 % 84.4 %
0%
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Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17
Load
Fac
tor
Av
aila
ble
Se
at
KM
(A
SK
)
ASK Load FactorLoad
-0.8 p.p.
24 % growth in capacity (ASK)
23 % growth in traffic (RPK)
Average flying distance increased by 6 %
Continued growth in all key airports
5Source: 12 month rolling passengers as reported by Avinor, Swedavia, Copenhagen Airports, Finavia, Gatwick Airport, Aena
Strongest growth rate in US, Spain and France
6 % passenger growth in the Nordics
Growth in number of passengers in Q1 17 (y/y): Split passengers by origin in Q1 17:
Continued passenger growth in US and Spain
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Q1 unit passenger revenue -17 % to 0.28 (-13 % in constant currency)
15 % growth in ancillary revenue (flat NOK 138 per passenger)
Other revenue driven by Reward, Cargo, external leasing and SLB gains
9 % revenue growth in Q1
Total revenue 2,904 3,551 4,034 4,961 5,406
Passenger 2,473 2,900 3,221 3,971 4,074
% y/y chg 24 % 17 % 11 % 23 % 3 %
Anci l lary 338 523 676 802 919
% y/y chg 13 % 55 % 29 % 19 % 15 %
Other 93 128 137 188 413
% y/y chg 52 % 38 % 7 % 37 % 120 %
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Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17
NO
K m
illio
n
+ 9 %
Growth driven by both new routes and frequency
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Total ASK growth of 20 % the last 12 months
Balanced growth on increased frequency and new routes
44000
46000
48000
50000
52000
54000
56000
58000
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ASK Q11612 mthsrolling
New routes Closedroutes
Frequecychanges
New routes Frequencychanges
ASK Q11712 mthsrolling
Adding nine 787-9 Dreamliners in 2017
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Aircraft 3 7 8 12 21 32
Seats 873 2 037 2 328 3 704 6 800 10 584
Deliveries 787-8(291 seats)
Deliveries 787-9(344 seats)
Widebody aircraft (delivered and firm orders)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8 56 8 11 1320
22 2323 22
115 5
2
2 55 5
55 5
5
7 16 21
2325 29
2927 23 19 15 14
28
1013
13
13 17 2929 29
2
7 15 23
30 41 51
64
6971 71
6 1632
2
55
9
14
20
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7
12
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6 8 11 13
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3240
46
5762
68
85
9599
116
144
163
191
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40
60
80
100
120
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2002year-end
2003year-end
2004year-end
2005year-end
2006year-end
2007year-end
2008year-end
2009year-end
2010year-end
2011year-end
2012year-end
2013year-end
2014year-end
2015year-end
2016year-end
2017year-end
2018year-end
2019year-end
A321LR owned
B787-8/B787-9 owned
B787-8/B787-9 leased
B737 MAX 8 owned
B737-800 owned
B737-800 S&LB
B737-800 leased
B737-300 owned
B737-300 leased
M80 leased
Adding 32 new aircraft in 2017
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2017:Deliveries 787-9
+3,096 seats
Deliveries 737-800 and 737 MAX
+4,296 seats
Re-deliveries 737-800
-744 seats
Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17
EBT margin -1 % -8 % -1 % 2 %
-215
-1,592
-141
652
-2,000
-1,600
-1,200
-800
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NO
K m
illio
n
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EBT margin -23 % -19 % -20 % -34 %
-813-776
-992
-1,848
-2,000
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K m
illio
nQ1 impacted by higher fuel cost and lower RASK
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EBT development Q1 12 mths rollingEBT development Q1
(NOK million) Q1 17 Q1 16 Chg
12 mths rolling
Q1 17
12 mths rolling
Q1 16 Chg
Revenue 5,406 4,961 446 26,500 23,417 3,083
EBITDAR (607) 63 (670) 5,289 3,688 1,600
EBITDA (1,338) (606) (732) 2,385 1,377 1,008
Pre-tax profit (EBT) (1,848) (992) (856) 652 (141) 793
Net profit (1,492) (800) (691) 444 (16) 459
Less impact of wetlease and hedging
15* Clean EBITDA: Reported EBITDA adj. for other losses/gains and non-recurring items
NOK million Q1 17 Q1 16 Chg
12 mths rolling
Q1 17
12 mths rolling
Q1 16 Chg
Revenue 5,406 4,961 446 26,500 23,417 3,083
EBITDA as reported -1,338 -606 -732 2,385 1,377 1,008
Other losses/gains -255 -528 273 849 -1,005 1,854
EBITDA ex. other losses/gains -1,083 -78 -1,004 1,536 2,382 -846
Non-recurring items:
- industry action -110
- net of gain SLB and writedown assets for sale 151 255 -52
- wetlease -69 -112 -486 -157
Sum non-recurring items 82 -112 -231 -319
Clean EBITDA -1,165 34 -1,199 1,767 2,701 -934
Margin clean EBITDA -21.5 % 0.7 % 6.7 % 11.5 %
EBITDA bridge Q1 2017 vs last year
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* Ex. other losses/gains
-1600
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EBITDA*Q1 16
Increasedfuel price
Yieldchange
Loadchange
Gain fromSLB Other
EBITDA*Q1 17
-78
-1,083
Passenger tax Norway
Q1 unit cost ex. fuel decreased by 4 % to NOK 0.34
2 % lower unit cost ex. fuel in constant currency
Unit cost increased by 4 % to NOK 0.44 (6 % in constant currency)
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Other losses / (gains) is not included in the CASK concept as it primarily contains hedge gains/losses offset under financial items* as well as other non-operational income and/or cost items such as gains on the sale of spare part inventory and unrealized foreign currency effects on receivables/payables and (hedges of operational expenses).*Norwegian hedges USD/NOK to counter foreign currency risk exposure on USD denominated borrowings translated to the prevailing currency rate at each balance sheet date. Hedge gains and losses are according to IFRS recognized under operating expenses (other losses/ (gains) while foreign currency gains and losses from translation of USD denominated borrowings are recognized under financial items.
Cost per ASK (CASK) NOK 0.62 0.56 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.43 0.44
CASK ex. fuel 0.46 0.45 0.40 0.37 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.34
0.46
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0.400.37 0.36
0.33 0.320.35 0.35 0.34
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Op
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EB
ITD
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vel p
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SK (C
ASK
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CASK ex. fuel
Fuel share of CASK
Full impact of lower fuel cost
Higher Fuel cost (+43 % per ASK) driven by price (+53 %) offset by stronger NOK vs USD (3 %)
Higher Personnel cost (+2 % per ASK) due to ramp-up of intercontinental operations. 32 % increase in FTE’s
Lower Airport/ATC (-14 % per ASK), Handling (-3 % per ASK) and Sales and Distribution (-9 % per ASK) per ASK due to increased sector length and currency
Lower Leasing cost (-12 % per ASK) due to reduced use of wetlease and currency
Higher Technical expenses (+9 % per ASK) on more leased aircraft and price escalation on heavy maintenance
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12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling
Personnel
Other
Technical
Airport/ATC
Leasing
Depreciation
Sales & Distribution
Handling
Fuel
NOK 1.4 bn cash-flow from operations in Q1
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Strong liquidity with NOK 4.8 bn in cash at the end of Q1 (+NOK 0.3 bn in undrawn facility)
Cash-flow from operations of NOK 2.3 bn the last 12 months
Invested NOK 5 bn the last 12 months, of which NOK 4.3 bn is financed with external debt
NOK million Q1 17 Q1 16 Chg
12 mths rolling
Q1 17
12 mths rolling
Q1 16 Chg
Profit before tax -1,848 -992 -856 652 -140 792
Paid taxes 40 - 40 12 -44 56
Depreciation 364 288 76 1,372 1,201 170
Change air traffic settlement liabilities 3,888 2,954 934 1,586 1,506 80
Change working capital -1,045 -243 -802 -1,324 913 -2,237
Net cash flows from operating activities 1,399 2,007 -608 2,297 3,436 -1,139 -
Net cash flows from investing activities -194 -1,666 1,472 -5,040 -5,276 236
Net cash flows from financial activities 1,226 375 851 4,297 3,461 836
Net change in cash and cash equivalents 2,434 735 1,698 1,554 1,574 -20 -
Cash and cash equivalents, end of period 4,757 3,190 1,568 4,757 3,190 1,568
Financing on track
Expected capex (all aircraft incl. PDP)USD 1.3 bn for 2017 (reduced from USD 1.8 bn)
USD 2.1 bn for 2018 (unchanged)
PDP financing / liquidityPDP financing for 50 Airbus 320neo’s
Credit facility (NOK 1 bn)
New unsecured bond (SEK 1 bn)
Long-term financingExport credit guaranteed financing (Ex-Im and ECA)
AFIC – guaranteed by a syndicate
Sale leaseback (SLB)
Commercial banks
EETC financing
Private placements21
3,190
Cash4,757
3,180
Receivables3,893
2,283
Other assets2,727
5,274
Aircraft PDP 7,128
19,057
Aircraft22,452
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NO
K m
illi
on
Equity2,536 1,986
Pre-sold tickets8,554 6,969
Otherliabilities
4,932 4,931
PDP and bonds7,547
4,091
Aircraft financing
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Q1 17 Q1 16
Net debt reduced by NOK 1 bn
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Added eight new 737-800 and three 320neo’s on balance the last 12 months
NOK 20 bn net debt (reduced from 21 bn in Q4 2016)
6 % equity ratio (unchanged y/y). 10 % when adding market value of Bank Norwegian (NOFI)
Outlook for 2017
Markets and business
Negative impact from passenger tax in Norway and weaker demand in the UK
Negative revenue impact from currency and distance
Capacity adjusted booking volumes on par with last year, except some softness in May
An estimated production growth (ASK) of 30 % (unchanged)
737-800 / 737 MAX +20 %, 787-9 Dreamliners +60 %
Increasing distance driven by mix
Fuel hedging
52 % of 2017 at USD 494 and 12 % of 2018 at USD 500
Unit cost target of NOK 0.39 to 0.40 (unchanged)
Assumptions: Fuel price of USD 500 per metric ton, USD/NOK 8.25, EUR/NOK 9.00
Impact of NOK 90 million higher fuel cost in Q1
Including impact of additional SLB (leasing is included in CASK) and ramp-up of intercontinental operations
Based on the current route portfolio and planned production
32 new aircraft entering operations in 2017
17 Boeing 737-800, six 737 MAX and nine 787-9 Dreamliners (incl. five leased)
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Going forward
Focus on global expansion and strong growth in staff, routes and aircraft
European launch customer of the 737 MAX 8
The new intercontinental routes with the MAX well received in the market
Startup of US-Spain with 787’s in Q2
Launched new routes from London to Seattle, Denver and Singapore
Strong liquidity and reduced capex for 2017
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