Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Electricity Price Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Jeff...
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Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Electricity Price Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Jeff King Regional Technical Forum January 9, 2001
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Transcript of Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Electricity Price Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Jeff...
Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001
Electricity Price Forecast Sensitivity Analysis
Jeff King
Regional Technical Forum
January 9, 2001
Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001
Basic Assumptions
• New projects are developed by private, independent developers
• Projects under construction are completed; additional projects are market-driven.
• Projects scheduled for retirement are retired; additional retirements are market-driven.
• Constant “Mean Price” water conditions.
• Average loads.
• No transmission upgrades.
• Pre-ISO transmission rates (“pancaked”).
• Bid margin set at 5% of variable cost.
• Operating reserves set at 6.5%.
Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001
RTF Sensitivity Study Assumptions
Natural gas Prices
Request: NYMEX futures contracts in near-term; $3.75/MMBtu by end of study period.
This run: as requested.
Renewables incentives/environmental externalities
Request: 2 c/kWh renewables incentive; phased to equivalent CO2 tax 2005 - 2015.
This run: 1.5 c/kWh renewables incentive; phased to $20/ton CO2 tax 2005 - 2015.
NOx Offsets
Request: NOx offset prices consistent with current offset market.
This run: A&R study assumptions ($0.80 cents/lb, all hours)
Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001
Gas Price Forecast (Henry Hub)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1997
$/M
MB
tu
BPA Prelim , extendedNWPPC A&R ModerateEIA Prelim AEO 2001wellhead + EIA-HH BDRTF Request 12/12/00
Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001
Forecast Resource Development: Pacific Northwest
-1000
-750
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Ca
pa
cit
y (
MW
)
Coal steam
Wind
NG Combined-cycle
Biomass & other low-cost renewable
Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001
Forecast Resource Development: WSCC
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
An
nu
al C
ap
ac
ity
Ad
dit
ion
s (
MW
)NG Simple-cycleFO Simple-cycleCoal steamWindNG Combined-cycleBiomass & other low-cost renewable
Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001
Forecast Mid-Columbia Prices
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(19
97
$/M
Wh
)
Adequacy & Reliability Study (022500)
RTF Sensitivity Analysis (120700)
RTF Sensitivity Analysis (010501)
Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001
Levelized Mid-Columbia Forecasts
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
Adequacy & Reliability Study(022500)
RTF Sensitivity Analysis(120700)
RTF Sensitivity Analysis(010501)
Lev
eliz
ed P
rice
200
1 -
17 (
$/M
Wh
)
Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001
Four-segment Monthly Averages
Monthy Average Prices by Load Segment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(199
7 $/
MW
h)
1: M-F 0800-18002: M-F 0400-0800, 1800-2200; S&S 0400-22003: M-F 0000-0400, 2200-24004: S&S 0000-0400, 2200-2400
Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001
Comparison of Monthly Averages
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(19
97
$/M
Wh
)
Run 120700 Seg 1Run 120700 Seg 4Run 010501 Seg 1Run 010501 Seg 4
