Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Revised Carbon Dioxide Revised Carbon Dioxide MethodologyMethodology

Regional Technical ForumRegional Technical Forum

April 18, 2004April 18, 2004

slide 2

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

History of RTF EstimatesHistory of RTF Estimates

OriginalOriginal– Based on $15/ton CO2 & Gas-fired CCCTBased on $15/ton CO2 & Gas-fired CCCT– Result: 6 mills/kWh adder to avoided costResult: 6 mills/kWh adder to avoided cost

Then 5Then 5thth Plan Placeholder Plan Placeholder– Value of CO2 $0 to $30/ton & Gas CCCTValue of CO2 $0 to $30/ton & Gas CCCT– Expected value ~$3/ton CO2 Expected value ~$3/ton CO2 – Result: 1.2 mills per kWh adderResult: 1.2 mills per kWh adder

slide 3

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Proposed RevisionProposed Revision Both Both AmountAmount & & ValueValue of CO2 avoided of CO2 avoided

depends on when it is avoideddepends on when it is avoided Incorporate time-based value same as for Incorporate time-based value same as for

electricityelectricity– Shape of Savings (kWh)Shape of Savings (kWh)– Physical production (pounds per kWh)Physical production (pounds per kWh)– Value of CO2 avoided ($/ton)Value of CO2 avoided ($/ton)

Expected value of CO2 from 5Expected value of CO2 from 5 thth Plan Plan

slide 4

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Typical “On-Peak” Savings ProfilesTypical “On-Peak” Savings Profiles

Shape of Savings - On Peak

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Per

cen

t o

f An

nu

al M

easu

re S

avin

gs

Occ

uri

ng

in M

on

th

Commercial AirConditioning

Street Lighting

SF ResidentialWeatherization

ResidentialLighting

slide 5

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Typical “Off-Peak” Savings ProfilesTypical “Off-Peak” Savings ProfilesShape of Savings - Off Peak

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Per

cen

t o

f An

nu

al M

easu

re S

avin

gs

Occ

uri

ng

in M

on

th

Commercial AirConditioning

Street Lighting

SF ResidentialWeatherization

Residential Lighting

slide 6

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Expected Value of CO2Expected Value of CO2From 5From 5thth Power Plan Power Plan

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

Quarter

$ pe

r To

n C

O2

slide 7

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Physical CO2 AvoidedPhysical CO2 AvoidedFrom Latest Aurora™ ModelingFrom Latest Aurora™ Modeling

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Po

un

ds p

er

kW

h

1 Weekday On Peak2 Weekday Shoulder & Weekend Days3 Week Nights4 Weekend Nights

slide 8

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Timing-Based Value CO2Timing-Based Value CO2

ShapeShape of Savings (kWh)of Savings (kWh)

Value of CO2 Avoided ($/ton)Value of CO2 Avoided ($/ton)

Value of CO2 Avoided Value of CO2 Avoided

**

==

Shape of Savings - On Peak

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Per

cen

t o

f An

nu

al M

easu

re S

avin

gs

Occ

uri

ng

in M

on

th

Commercial AirConditioning

Street Lighting

SF ResidentialWeatherization

ResidentialLighting

$

**

Physical CO2 Avoided (lbs/kWh)Physical CO2 Avoided (lbs/kWh)

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

S-200

7

S-200

8

S-200

9

S-201

0

S-201

1

S-201

2

S-201

3

S-201

4

S-201

5

S-201

6

S-201

7

S-201

8

S-201

9

S-202

0

S-202

1

S-202

2

S-202

3

S-202

4

S-202

5

Quarter

$ p

er

Ton C

O2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Pou

nd

s p

er

kW

h

Weekday On Peak Weekend DaysWeek Nights Weekend Nights

slide 9

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Results for Selected Savings ShapesResults for Selected Savings Shapesand and 20-Year Measure Life20-Year Measure Life

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Flat

Syst

em L

oad

Shap

e

Res. S

pace

Hea

ting

Irrg

igat

ed A

g

Comm

ercia

l Light

ing

Stre

et L

ight

Comm

ercia

l AC

Segm

ent 1

Segm

ent 2

Segm

ent 3

Segm

ent 4

CO

2 A

dd

er

in m

ills

per

kW

h Placeholder Estimate Revised Estimate

slide 10

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Change from PlaceholderChange from Placeholder

Shape of SavingsValue of CO2

Avoided

Total Regional Benefit

Flat 7% 0.18%System Load Shape 6% 0.13%Residential Space Heating 8% 0.16%Irrgigated Ag 10% 0.23%Commercial Lighting 6% 0.15%StreetLight 12% 0.28%Commercial AC 8% 0.16%Elec Segment 1 1% 0.03%Elec Segment 2 1% 0.02%Elec Segment 3 26% 0.71%Elec Segment 4 26% 0.70%

slide 11

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

How Much CO2 Is This?How Much CO2 Is This?

Regional CO2 Production in 2025Regional CO2 Production in 2025– About 50 million tons/yearAbout 50 million tons/year

Electricity Saved per YearCO2 Saved

per Year1 kWh 1 pound1 MWa 4400 tons2600 MWa (2025 Target) 11 million tons

slide 12

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

EndEnd

slide 13

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Average Carbon Cost Average Carbon Cost ComparisonComparison

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

S-05 S-07 S-09 S-11 S-13 S-15 S-17 S-19 S-21 S-23 S-25Year

Exp

ecte

d V

alu

e C

arb

on

Co

st

(20

04

$/

ton

)

5th Plan Existing RTF

slide 14

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Change from PlaceholderChange from Placeholder If CO2 @ $15/ton If CO2 @ $15/ton

Shape of SavingsPV Electric

System CO2

Total Regional Benefit

Flat 530% 13%System Load Shape 518% 12%Residential Space Heating 547% 11%Irrgigated Ag 540% 13%Commercial Lighting 524% 12%StreetLight 568% 14%Commercial AC 527% 11%Elec Segment 1 477% 10%Elec Segment 2 480% 11%Elec Segment 3 700% 19%Elec Segment 4 675% 18%