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social currency™

Social Media Analysis of the 2010 Toronto Mayoral Election

June 17, 2010

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Introduction and Purpose

Research ObjectivesFor the pilot initiative, we’ve analyzed social media channels providing a perspective on how the major mayoral candidates are being discussed online – specifically, the propensity of each candidate to be mentioned in social media channels and the accompanying sentiment for the past 6 weeks (May 1st –June 11th)In tracking the online discussion surrounding the candidates, the goal is to get a snapshot of who’s winning the “word of mouth war”, by answering: Who has momentum? Who has positive buzz? What issues are resonating with voters?

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About Social Media

Social media is conversation or interaction between people online. While it’s still early in the race, an analysis of what people are actually saying about the candidates in social media channels offers a unique perspective and texture for the campaign.

Unlike traditional news media, which tries to maintain objectivity and fairness in reporting the news, social media is a domain of unfettered subjectivity and bias. It’s an environment where innuendo assumes equal prominence alongside fact, and where special interests are forever seeking to leverage the channel’s potential to influence opinion and alter outcomes in their favour. It truly is a new and wild frontier.

Traditional polling is usually asks voters who they plan to vote for. Social media provides a broader perspective. The volume and tone of discussion provides a real-time indication of voter engagement and intentions, possibly foretelling the fortune of the candidates based on the response and potential influence of the medium.

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Overall Weekly Activity Timeline

627662

505

437

648

711

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

May 18: CP24 Debate

May 11: Habitat for Humanity Debate

May 10: Interfaith Council Meeting

What it is: Trended volume of instances where candidates names are mentioned in social media channelsWhat it says: Candidate mention activity is sporadic, but seems to be building. Discussion is most often fuelled by offline events like debates and major policy announcementsAnalysis: From a social media perspective, voter engagement remains low. Look for conversation activity to increase as the public gets more engaged in the campaign.

May 1-7 May 8-14 May 15-21 May 22-28 May 29-June 4 June 5-11

Total 3590 mentionsAverage 598 per week

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Social Media Source

Twitter, 51%Blogs, 39%

Social Networks, 3%

Message Boards, 4%

Video/Image Sharing, 2%

What it is: The percentage of candidate mention activity that can be attributed to each social media channelWhat it says: More than half of the conversation takes place on Twitter.Analysis: The content-rich nature of blogs is home to more substantive analysis of the campaign, whereas Twitter tends to echo the day’s headlines and events as people pass along news, observations and opinions.

3590 mentionsMay 1 – June 11

Base

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Candidate Share of VoiceWhat it is: Share of mentions for each candidate in social media channelsWhat it says: Ford receives the highest volume of mentions overall, followed by Smitherman and RossiAnalysis: Ford’s controversial stance on issues fosters the most discussion – both criticism and praise, while Mammoliti and Thomson fail to inspire much conversation activity.

Ford, 35%

Smitherman, 25%

Pantalone, 11%

Rossi, 17%

Mammoliti, 6%Thomson, 6%

Ford -Smitherman 1004

Rossi 6495Pantalone 642Mammoliti 464Thomson 615

Facebook Fans

Ford 674Smitherman 1617

Rossi 1441Pantalone 597Mammoliti 476Thomson 1083

Twitter Followers

•As of June 17 •As of June 17


Base

7

15% 22% 26%13% 7% 14% 9%

71% 55%

67%

60%81%

83%78%

14%23%

7%

28%12%

4%13%

Overall Ford Smitherman Rossi Pantalone Mammoliti Thomson

PositiveNeutralNegative

Candidate SentimentWhat it is: An analysis of the sentiment from candidate mentionsWhat it says: Rossi has the largest proportion of positive comments. Conversation about Ford is polarized and least likely to be neutral. Comments relating to Smitherman and Mammoliti are more negative than positive.What it means: Rossi’s aggressive online marketing is instrumental in driving positive buzz. Smitherman’s buzz is negatively impacted by reactions to transit policy and challenges faced as a provincial MPP.

Recall Share of Voice 17% 11% 6%25%35% 6%100%

Net (Pos minus Neg) 15% 5% -10%-19%1% 4%-1%


Base

8

3%

2%

8%

3%

2%

9%

9%

7%

3%

3%

3%

1%

1%

9%

2%

Negative Neutral Positive

Most Popular Discussion Topics and Sentiment – All Candidates

Discussion relating to Transit/Transportation(TTC, Bike Lanes, Road Tolls)

Discussion relating to Candidate Performance at a Debate

Non-Specific Comments in Support of a Candidate

Discussion relating to Candidate Experience

Non-Specific Comments Opposing a Candidate

Discussion Around a Campaign Event or Appearance


Base

What it is: A ranking of the most frequently discussed topics of conversation for all candidates, along with accompanying sentiment.What it says: Transit is the most discussed issue. Debates inspire dialogue and discussion. People are using social media to vocalize their support or opposition of a candidate.

Discussion of Ford’s comments on AIDS and Homophobia

Reference to a Poll

13%

12%

9%

9%

8%

5%

3%

6%

9

1%

2%

9%

2%

4%

4%

6%

3%

3%

5%

2%

2%

10%

2%

1%

1%


Most Popular Discussion Topics and Sentiment – Ford








Base


Reference to a Poll

5%

10%

10%

5%

9%

10%

3%

5%

Recall: Ford’s share of voice = 35%What it says: Support and opposition are almost evenly divided. Ford’s “Truth About Aids” tweet garnered a strong negative reaction, which was perpetuated by Smitherman releasing a statement on the issue.

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8%

2%

11%

8%

1%

15%

11%

9%

5%

4%

3%

1%

4%

1%

1%

1%


Most Popular Discussion Topics and Sentiment – Smitherman








Base


Discussion Relating to Smitherman’s Trip to China

24%

14%

4%

10%

11%

5%

4%

13%

Recall: Smitherman’s share of voice = 25% What it says: Smitherman’s transit policy garnered significant negative discussion. General opposition outweighs supporters by almost 3:1. Negative discussion also stems from his track record and issues during his tenure as MPP

Candidate Specific Issue

11

3%

1%

6%

1%

16%

6%

13%

2%

2%

1%

2%

18%

3%

3%


Most Popular Discussion Topics and Sentiment – Rossi




Discussion relating to the G20 Conference in Toronto




Base

Discussion relating to Rossi’s Plan to Create 250 000 Jobs

22%

9%

18%

16%

6%

3%

1%

2%

Recall: Rossi’s share of voice = 17%What it says: Transit is the most common issue discussed relative to Rossi. Supportive comments outweigh statements of opposition by almost 3:1

Reference to a Poll


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1%

1%

2%

1%

5%

8%

18%

4%

10%

7%

1%

5%

1%

2%


Most Popular Discussion Topics and Sentiment – Pantalone




Discussion relating to the G20 Conference in Toronto




Base

Discussion relating to electoral reform, including online voting and councilor numbers

6%

10%

5%

19%

2%

13%

7%

4%

Discussion relating to the World Cup, including motion to extend liquor serving hours

Recall: Pantalone’s share of voice = 11%What it says: Pantalone generated discussion by pushing to extend serving ours during World Cup. His “Civic Values”platform (which included ideas on electoral reform) also received coverage.

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9%

5%

14%

4%

12%

18%

17%

2%

4%

2% 4%

1%


Most Popular Discussion Topics and Sentiment – Mammoliti




Discussion relating to his Waterfront Proposal




Base

Discussion relating to Pride Parade Funding

5%

14%

2%

4%

9%

18%

23%

17%

Recall: Mammoliti’s share of voice = 6%What is says: Mammoliti’s Waterfront proposal was received more negatively than positively. There was no positive support relating to any of his “Outrageous” ideas.


Discussion relating to the World Cup, including motion to extend liquor serving hours

14

1%

5%

3%

10%

18%

11%

6%

13%

3%

3%

8%

3%

1%


Most Popular Discussion Topics and Sentiment – Thomson







Base

Discussion relating to housing policy

14%

26%

8%

11%

3%

14%

3%

6%

Reference to a Poll

Recall: Thomson’s share of voice = 6%What it says: Thomson’s performances in debates are more negative than positive. There was excitement and activity surrounding recent poll numbers which showed her share of decided voters increasing.


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Summary

Not so long ago, political campaigns were fought primarily on mass media channels like television and the newspaper – but the age of web 2.0 and social media has opened up a new battleground. The web is a place where the candidates, media and the voting public are freely engaged in a raw and candid dialogue, sharing news, promoting policy views, and stirring up controversy, all in hopes of exerting influence on the outcome of the election. The social web has changed the political landscape forever as special interests attempt to leverage the web’s immediacy, expansive reach and relative anonymity – where anything can be said with relative impunity.

At the time of this study, voter engagement (as measured by conversation levels) seems to be growing. Much of the conversation is stimulated by events, the media and ardent campaign supporters. Interestingly, share of voice for each candidate aligns somewhat to recent polling numbers. Transit is a strong source of discussion both online and off. Overall, positive and negative sentiment regarding the candidates is evenly split, but certain candidates foster a larger proportion of either positive or negative discussion.

What’s clear from this early analysis is that social media can both accelerate and amplify word of mouth about the campaign. The ease at which messages can be passed along perpetuates a viral loop that can either benefit or harm a candidate’s chance at victory, a double edged sword of which most campaign teams are keenly aware.

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Using specialized software we formed a query using the names of the top six candidates – Rocco Rossi, George Smitherman, Joe Pantalone, Sarah Thomson, Giorgio Mammoliti and Rob Ford. Northstar collected and analyzed six weeks of data, from April 25th through June 6th, 2010 from social media sources like blogs, discussion forums, Twitter and image sharing sites like YouTube and Flickr. Data from Facebook was limited to publicly available content only, meaning any private conversations between friends that are protected by passwords and user privacy settings were not collected. Essentially, anything that is considered part of the public domain was considered for the analysis.

Over 50,000 documents were considered for the analysis, which was then culled down to genuine citizen generated discussion and opinion by filtering out news articles coming directly from traditional media outlets, spam or any other sources judged to be unworthy of inclusion. We also filtered out data coming directly from the candidates themselves – specifically from candidate Twitter and Facebook profiles. Personal profiles maintained by candidate staffers were included in the analysis as we thought it was relevant to include any advocate or detractor of a candidate, who wasn’t a candidate themselves.

Positive or negative sentiment was assigned based on the expression of a personal opinion or comment. News stories like personal appearance and policy announcements were considered neutral, unless appended by subjective remarks. It’s also common in social media for people to forward or “retweet” content that’s of interest. In the event where opinionated content was passed along, we assumed the sender shared the same point of view to the original author, unless that opinion was appended with its own commentary.

Methodology

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About Northstar Research Partners

Northstar is a full-service market research firm that performs all forms of consumer research, including qualitative, quantitative and ethnographic. Social Currency™, Northstar’s social media research practice, monitors, measures and mines social media activity, giving brands a perspective on how and why the social web responds to market activities. Social Currency™ is led by Patrick Gladney.

Northstar was founded in Toronto and through a combination of strong organic growth & strategic acquisitions, has grown to a team of 100 research & insight consultants in 7 offices globally. Collectively we operate in more than 60 countries, with offices in Canada, the United States, and the UK.

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