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Northside Professional Services Northside Professional Services
Email: [email protected] (07) 33124950
Australian Association of Social Workers (AASW)
Membership Trends and Opportunities Revisited
Northside Professional Services - April 2007
Northside Professional Services Northside Professional Services
Email: [email protected] (07) 33124950
AASW Analysis recommissioned
• To inform the ‘marketing’ of the AASW to members and potential members
• Informed by previous studies, social work profession studies, labour market, higher education and membership data
• AASW - a microcosm of situation confronting the social work profession - environmental, internal and external pressures in maintaining relevance.
• A clear vision before marketing strategies can be built for the AASW membership
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A ‘Marketing’ Approach
• Finding out what the ‘customer’ wants, creating products to satisfy those wants to the customer’s and provider’s mutual benefit
• ‘Customer’ is the members and potential members of the AASW, the provider is the AASW and its product is the advantages of membership
• ‘Products’ have a life cycle, the customer body is not uniform (having ‘segments’) and the product is modified to meet the wants of ‘segments’ and strategies selected accordingly
Northside Professional Services Northside Professional Services
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AASW Membership Studies• Indicated membership growth was slowing, after
strong growth in the mid 1990’s – a mature market. • In light of the dynamics of the industry several
strategies were discussed.• Enter New Market Segments – non social workers in
the ‘helping professions’ may benefit from an ‘associate membership’ or change the membership criteria so that these ‘allied’ professionals can assume a ‘full’ membership?
• Win Competitors Customers –similar organisations that potential AASW members are part of?
• A rethink about how ‘broad a church’ the AASW wants to be. Should it be an association of ‘Social Workers’ or an association of ‘Social Welfare Professionals’?
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• Opportunities to Convert NonUsers by targeting Social Workers not members of the AASW?
• Clues from 2005 analysis to making product more attractive– Ageing of Profile – Possibility of maintaining a professional
connection in retirement and semi retirement– Mentoring for Students – especially ESLs– A tool in reducing professional isolation remote areas/ESL– A packaging up of membership to compliment the various stages
of career– Opportunities exist to convert ‘non users’ in health, community and
state based authorities (happy hunting grounds)– No gender imbalance, small numbers may be gained through
indigenous social workers– Examine why so many stay so briefly– Bastion for private practice and contracted workers
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2007 Study features
• Retake of membership trends • Modeling of AASW age profile over time• Changes in employment sectors• Potential contribution of branches• Link between recent graduates and membership
• Opportunities for AASW eligibility in the broader
‘helping professions’ • Analysis of membership’s regional profile• A focus upon AASW members in the ‘mental
health’ field
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• IMIS (Integrated Membership Information System) contains the records of 14,331 individuals who have or have had an association with the AASW.
• 6,222 current active members (March 2007) and
8,109 Inactive members (Ex members).
• Due to data fields associated with these individuals being incomplete or invalid, small numbers of these individuals ‘drop off’ in parts of the analysis.
• Due to the administrative effects upon membership estimations, the March data is extrapolated forward to June 2007 based upon previous histories.
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AASW Membership 1989 - 2007 (2007 Figure Extrapolated)
2550 2650
30003192
3367
3659
4031
4323
4850
5706
60736210 6300 6282 6386 6288
61656303
6440
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Num
ber o
f Ind
ivid
ual M
embe
rs
2007 extrapolation indicates that overall AASW membership has exhibited a recent growth spurt.
May be a late effect associated with the expansion of the mental health rebate scheme.
It appears to be ‘bouncing’ around in the 6,300 to 6,500 range.
About half the ‘social work’ workforce.
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Breakup of 'Mental Health' AASW Members by Area of Work
Commonwealth Agencies, 18, 2%
Education and Training, 25, 3%
Health, Hospital and Aged Care, 399, 42%
Local Government Agencies, 10, 1%NGO and Community, 104,
11%
Not Paid Employment, 6, 1%
Other,Overseas, Legal Aid, Justice, AASW, 34, 4%
Private Practice and Industry, 182, 20%
State Government Agency, 153, 16%
Just under 1 in 6 AASW members has a ‘mental health’ connection. A relatively higher proportion of private practitioners are engaged in mental health work (20% in mental health vs 14 % overall AASW membership).
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What are the dynamics of this growth?
• Use point to point data (18+ Months)
• Members in August 2005 Analysis - 6,175
• New Members - 851
• 'Returned' Members - 314
• Members in 2005 not in 2007 - 1,118
• Members in March 2007 Analysis - 6,222
• A high rate of ‘churn’?
• Changes in age structure?
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Number of AASW Exmembers by Year
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f E
xmem
ber
s
Over 1 in 10 members appear to leave every year – Is there a way
to repackage the ‘product’ to address this?
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Modelling the AASW Age Profile
• Concern that AASW is rapidly greying• Two snapshots of recent data permit modelling
of age profile over next six years• Refines information presented in 2005• Assumptions
– average annual growth of 2.5% (industry average)– 7,400 members by 2013– Age profiles of recruitment and departure similar to
last 2 years– High rate of retention for the over 60 years of age
cohort
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AASW Member Numbers by Age Group 2007
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Age 20-29 Age 30-39 Age 40-49 Age 50-59 Age 60+
Age Group
AS
SW
Mem
ber
s
7% 17% 27% 34% 15%
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ASSW Member Numbers by Age Group 2010
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Age 20-29 Age 30-39 Age 40-49 Age 50-59 Age 60+
Age Group
AA
SW
Mem
ber
s
6% 16% 25% 33% 20%
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AASW Member Numbers by Age Group 2013
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Age 20-29 Age 30-39 Age 40-49 Age 50-59 Age 60+
Age Group
AS
SW
Mem
ber
s
6% 15% 23% 32% 23%
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Estimated AASW Members by Age Group 2007 - 2013
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f A
AS
W M
emb
ers
Age 20-29
Age 30-39
Age 40-49
Age 50-59
Age 60+
However, if half the over 60’s cease to be AASW members, membership will not move far beyond
2007 levels, while the rest of the social welfare professional workforce is
growing
Under this scenario, the best
the younger cohorts can do is
‘flat line’
In a professional context, there may be
opportunities to encourage mentoring
and bequests
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Age Distribution of AASW Members who joined between August 2005 and March 2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 70 71 72 78 84
Age
Nu
mb
er o
f N
ew M
emb
erss
ss
There appears to be substitution in terms of age profile – between those
who leave and those who join.
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Age Profile of AASW 'Exmembers' that were active in 2005
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 80 86 93
Age of 'Exmembers'
Nu
mb
er o
f 'E
xmem
ber
s'
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Estimated AASW Members by Age Group 2007 - 2013
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f A
AS
W M
emb
ers
Age 20-29
Age 30-39
Age 40-49
Age 50-59
Age 60+
Assumption – a 1% average annual growth rate
Northside Professional Services Northside Professional Services
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Estimated AASW Members by Age Group 2007 - 2013
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
AA
SW
Me
mb
ers
Age 20-29
Age 30-39
Age 40-49
Age 50-59
Age 60+
Assumption – a 0% annual average growth rate in membership
More recruits and retention are needed here
And here
And especially here. Can these individuals be encouraged through
bequests?
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Age Profile of Current AASW Members Engaged in Mental Health
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
Age Category
Num
ber
of M
embe
rs
Will Mental Health registration impetus help?
Possibly
Age profile of AASW members engaged in Mental Health is same as general AASW
population
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Age Profile of New AASW Members engaged in 'Mental Health'
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
Age Category
Nu
mb
er o
f N
ew M
emb
ers However profile of new mental health AASW
recruits is somewhat younger
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• Profile presents issues with how to maintain a reasonable representation of membership– effectively recruit new members or previous members– retain existing members– maintain engagement the older cohorts particularly as
they approach retirement or move through semiretirement
• However, there is the bigger picture issue of where the AASW sees itself in terms of the backdrop of the ‘helping professions’ in general
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Australian Labour Force Data - 'Social Welfare Professionals' - 1996 to 2005 - Persons Employed
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aug-96
Nov-96
Feb-97
May-97
Aug-97
Nov-97
Feb-98
May-98
Aug-98
Nov-98
Feb-99
May-99
Aug-99
Nov-99
Feb-00
May-00
Aug-00
Nov-00
Feb-01
May-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Feb-02
May-02
Aug-02
Nov-02
Feb-03
May-03
Aug-03
Nov-03
Feb-04
May-04
Aug-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
May-05
Aug-05
Quarter
Num
ber
of P
erso
ns E
mp
loye
d (T
hous
ands
)
SocialWorkers
Welfare andCommunityWorkers
Counsellors
Psychologists
Ministers ofReligion
Social WelfareProfessionals -nfd
Total
Revisiting Labour Force Data suggests opportunities to move
into similar ‘markets’ through review of AASW eligibility
Those eligible for AASW membership may find
employment in social welfare professional occupations that doubled nationally since 1996.
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Australian Employment of Social Workers and Community and Welfare Workers (May 1997 - November 2006)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Quarter
Em
ploy
men
t (M
ovin
g A
vera
ge)e
eeee
)
SocialWorkers
WelfareandCommunityWorkers
One area that continues to grow particularly strongly is Welfare and Community Workers.
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Makeup Of 'Helping Profession' Bachelor Level Graduates 2004
Behavioural Science, 415, 14%
Behavioural Science not elsewhere classified, 306, 10%
Care for the Aged, 11, 0%
Care for the Disabled, 106, 4%
Children's Services, 102, 3%
Counselling, 149, 5%
Human Welfare Studies and Services, 354, 12%Human Welfare Studies and
Services not elsewhere classified, 41, 1%
Social Work, 1194, 42%
Welfare Studies, 137, 5%
Youth Work, 110, 4%
Numbers of Bachelor level graduates that could conceivably
work in the Welfare and Community sector may exceed
Social Work graduates.
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AASW members Estimated June 2007
6,440
Social Worker Workforce (November 2006)
13,500
Welfare and Community Workforce (November 2006)
38,100
Counsellor Workforce (November 2006)
16,100
Combined Workforce (November 2006)
67,700
Given the size of the sectors that overlap with social work or that the distinctions between the roles and responsibilities are somewhat blurred
– there are great opportunities for the organisation to be more relevant to the ‘helping
profession’ sector in general.
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AASW members Estimated June 2007
6,440
Social Worker Graduates (Bachelor level – 2004)
1,174
Welfare and Community/Counselling Graduates (Bachelor level – 2004)
1,537
Combined Graduates (Bachelor level – 2004)
2,711
Especially at point of entry
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On another slant, this ‘point of entry’ concept needs review with given the age profile and number of social work graduates (in 2004,
almost 700 up to 29 year olds graduated)
Number of Social Work Graduates by Age Category (2004)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Student is 20 through 29years of age
Student is 30 through 39years of age
Student is 40 through 49years of age
Student is 50 through 59years of age
Student is 60 years of age ormore
Age Category
Num
ber
of S
ocia
l Wor
k G
radu
ates
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Yet over the last six years, just under 500 up to 29 year olds have joined (10%?). Is there need for a
better introductory offer or a ‘starter pack’?
Age Profile of Individuals Joining the AASW over the last 6 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Person is 20 through 29years of age
Person is 30 through 39years of age
Person is 40 through 49years of age
Person is 50 through 59years of age
Person is 60 years of age ormore
Age Category
Num
ber
of In
divi
dual
s
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Breakup of 2007 AASW Membership by Area of Employment
Commonwealth Agencies5%
Education and Training8%
Health, Hospital and Aged Care28%
Local Government Agencies
2%
NGO and Community22%
Not Paid Employment1%
Other,Overseas, Legal Aid, Justice, AASW
4%
Private Practice and Industry
14%
State Government Agency16%
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At first glance, there appears to be change between areas of employment.
However in percentage terms (and in numbers) these changes are small.
But they may be pointing to trends to change of structure in the industry and membership
Changes in Percentage Share of AASW Membership (2005 - 2007) by Employment Area
CommonwealthAgencies
Education andTraining
Health, Hospitaland Aged Care
Local GovernmentAgencies
NGO andCommunity
Not PaidEmployment
Other,Overseas,Legal Aid, Justice,
AASW
Private Practiceand Industry
State GovernmentAgency
Employment Area
Per
cen
t C
han
geu
u
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AASW and the regions
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There appears to be change in the location of AASW members.
However, remember in percentage terms (and in numbers) that these changes are small.
But they may be pointing to trends to change of structure of membership, promoting the concept of AASW membership as a reaction to professional isolation
Percentage Change in Regional Share of AASW Membership
-0.50%
-0.40%
-0.30%
-0.20%
-0.10%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
Non Regional Inner Regional Australia Outer Regional Australia Remote Australia Very Remote Australia
Regional Category
Per
cen
tage
Cha
ngee
ee
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ItemNon Regional
Inner Regional Australia
Outer Regional Australia
Remote Australia
Very Remote Australia
Percentage Regional and Remote
Percentage Outer Regional to Very Remote
Number of AASW Members
4,413
1,193
444
35
15 28% 8%
Australian Population (2001)
12,870,978
4,018,541
2,018,977
330,025
174,719 34% 13%
AASW may be under represented in regional Australia. However the
trend, established in 2005, that regional members tend to retain
their memberships continues
Very remote
Remote
Outer Regional
Inner Regional
Non Regional
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BranchNon Regional
Inner Regional Australia
Outer Regional Australia
Remote Australia
Very Remote Australia
Percentage Regional and Remote
Percentage Outer Regional to Very Remote
New South Wales
1,055
269
45 23% 3%
Hunter 124
26
2 18% 1%
Total NSW 1,179
295
47
-
- 22% 3%
NSW Population (2001)
4,694,705
1,347,919
486,566
39,451
6,575 29% 8%
Victoria 1,299
332
55 23% 3%
Vic Population (2001)
3,526,669
1,018,602
254,650
4,805
- 27% 5%
South Australia
396
51
48
6
3 21% 11%
SA Population (2001)
1,085,421
187,454
178,384
45,352
15,117 28% 16%
Australian Capital Territory
211 6 3% 0%
ACT Population (2001)
314,585
630 0% 0%
Is this due to poor service delivery in regional areas?
Or lack of penetration to the AASW?
Or are other occupational groups fulfilling the social work role?
Or just an overall difficulty to fill professional positions in regional and remote Australia?
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BranchNon Regional
Inner Regional Australia
Outer Regional Australia
Remote Australia
Very Remote Australia
Percentage Regional and Remote
Percentage Outer Regional to Very Remote
Queensland 727
259
17
7
3 28% 3%
North Queensland
3 9
185
6
2 99% 94%
Total Queensland
730 268
202
13
5 40% 18%
Qld Population (2001)
1,897,939 936,268
642,323
94,353
54,434 48% 22%
Northern Territory
87
4 100% 100%
NT Population (2001)
- -
106,795
41,729
49,046 100% 100%
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BranchNon Regional
Inner Regional Australia
Outer Regional Australia
Remote Australia
Very Remote Australia
Percentage Regional and Remote
Percentage Outer Regional to Very Remote
Western Australia
509
104
44
16
7 25% 10%
WA Population (2001)
1,342,218
231,941
186,314
89,354
51,331 29% 17%
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BranchNon Regional
Inner Regional Australia
Outer Regional Australia
Remote Australia
Very Remote Australia
Percentage Regional and Remote
Percentage Outer Regional to Very Remote
Tasmania 2
137
44 99% 24%
Tas Population (2001)
-
300,062
160,882
8,492
2,831 100% 36%
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The AASW Branches
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Branch
Number of Members in 2005 Analysis (August 2005) New Members
'Returned' Members
Members in 2005 not in 2007 Raw Total
Members in 2007 Analysis (March 2007)
Movement Between Branches
Growth % (2005 - 2007)
Gross Loss of Members % (over 2005 - 2007 period)
New South Wales 1,397 183 65 265 1,380 1,379 1- -1.29% 19%Hunter 173 2 2 22 155 152 3- -12.14% 13%Victoria 1,659 237 88 295 1,689 1,697 8 2.29% 18%Queensland 1,008 128 69 185 1,020 1,018 2- 0.99% 18%North Queensland 197 34 7 37 201 206 5 4.57% 19%South Australia 505 81 21 93 514 510 4- 0.99% 18%Western Australia 664 96 44 114 690 687 3- 3.46% 17%Tasmania 185 21 3 30 179 185 6 0.00% 16%ACT 204 35 9 31 217 219 2 7.35% 15%NT 83 15 2 12 88 91 3 9.64% 14%Overseas 97 17 2 31 85 76 9- -21.65% 32%Unassigned 3 2 2 3 4 2 2- -33.33% 100%Total 6,175 851 314 1,118 6,222 6,222 - 0.76% 18%
Looking at growth at a branch level. The figures here are not extrapolated. However, they may
indicate the areas where growth could be expected. A feature to be mindful of is sites that may have a
high ‘churn’.
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Distribution of 'Helping Profession' Graduates (2004) by Australian State or Territory
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA
Australian State or Territory
Num
ber
of G
radu
ates
sss
Social Work
Psychology
Youth Work
Welfare Studies
Human Welfare Studies and Services not elsewhere classified
Human Welfare Studies and Services
Counselling
Children's Services
Care for the Disabled
Care for the Aged
Behavioural Science not elsewhere classified
Behavioural Science
It is interesting to look at branch potential in terms of the background
relationship to social work employment and ‘helping profession’
professionalisation in the state context.
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Makeup of 2004 'Helping Profession' Bachelor Level Graduates by State or Territory
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA
State or Territory
Nu
mb
er o
f G
rad
uat
es
Youth Work
Welfare Studies
Social Work
Human Welfare Studiesand Services notelsewhere classified
Human Welfare Studiesand Services
Counselling
Children's Services
Care for the Disabled
Care for the Aged
Behavioural Science notelsewhere classified
Behavioural Science
Focusing now upon Social Work, Welfare and Community and
Counselling at the Bachelor Level.
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Estimated Social Workers in Workforce - Australian States and Territories (1997 - 2007)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Quarter
Nu
mb
er o
f S
oci
al W
ork
erss
sss
NSW
VICTORIA
QUEENSLAND
SA
WA
TASMANIA
ACT
NT
Due to a relatively smaller sample, the state level
employment numbers bounce around a bit, however the DEWR uses this source in its website.
The large states’ figures are considered fairly accurate.
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Branch
Share of Australian Population
Share of Social Worker Workforce (2007)
Share of Social Worker Graduates (All Levels) (2004)
Share of Social Worker Graduates (Bachelor Only) (2004)
Share of AASW Membership (2007)
New South Wales and Hunter
33.1%
19.3% 23.6% 23.1% 24.6%
Victoria 24.7%
35.6% 31.9% 30.6% 27.3%
Queensland and North Queensland 19.7% 14.1% 15.6% 15.8% 19.7%
South Australia 12.5% 12.6% 13.9% 14.0% 8.2%
Western Australia 10.0% 10.4% 11.5% 12.4% 11.0%
Tasmania 2.4%
4.4% 2.9% 3.4% 3.0%
Northern Territory 1.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.7% 1.5%
Australian Capital Territory 1.6% 2.2% - - 3.5%
Numbers
20,605,000
13,500
1,391
1,174
6,222
Opportunities may exist where there are apparent imbalances between workforce, education
and AASW membership.
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BranchShare of Australian Population
Share of Community and Welfare/ Counseling Workforce (2005)
Share of Community and Welfare/Counseling Graduates (All Levels) (2004)
Share of Community and Welfare Graduates/ Counseling (Bachelor Only) (2004)
New South Wales and Hunter
33.1%34.1% 17.1% 18.1%
Victoria 24.7% 27.1% 24.9% 32.2%
Queensland and North Queensland 19.7% 15.9% 25.2% 31.4%
South Australia 12.5% 8.5% 16.8% 2.1%
Western Australia 10.0% 8.9% 12.5% 15.3%
Tasmania 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0%
Northern Territory 1.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Australian Capital Territory 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0%
Numbers 20,605,000
52,300 2,865 1,537
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Branch
Share of Australian Population
Share of Social Work and Community and Welfare Workforce/Counseling Combined (2005)
Share of Social Work and Community and Welfare Workforce/ Counseling Combined Graduates (All Levels) (2004)
Share of Social Work and Community and Welfare Workforce/ Counseling Combined Graduates (Bachelor Only) (2004)
New South Wales and Hunter
33.1% 32.0% 19.2% 20.3%
Victoria
24.7% 30.0% 27.2% 31.5%
Queensland and North Queensland 19.7% 15.0% 22.1% 24.6%
South Australia 12.5% 9.0% 15.8% 7.2%
Western Australia 10.0% 9.0% 12.2% 14.1%
Tasmania 2.4% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5%
Northern Territory 1.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3%
Australian Capital Territory 1.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.6%
Numbers 20,605,000 66,200
4,256
2,711
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Branch/StateNumber of New Members over last 6 Years (Aged 20 - 29 on Joining)
Number of Bachelor Level Social Work Graduates (Aged 20-29) 2004
New South Wales
111
Hunter 14
New South Wales total 125 196
Victoria 123 234
Queensland 76
North Queensland
16
Queensland total 92 108
South Australia 29 90
Western Australia 60 73
Tasmania 12 19
Northern Territory 6 -
Australian Capital Territory 17
Total 464 720
Northside Professional Services Northside Professional Services
Email: [email protected] (07) 33124950
Summary• A mature marketing opportunity
continues for the AASW.• Modeling suggests that the AASW
needs to seriously retain retiring age members, existing members and recruit younger members particularly graduates (who appear to be underrepresented).
• Labour market and graduate data suggests a large and growing market for potential AASW members and associate members that may require ‘product modification’ of the membership rules.
Northside Professional Services Northside Professional Services
Email: [email protected] (07) 33124950
Summary (cont.)
• Opportunities exist to package up the membership to compliment the various stages of career.
• Branches may have an opportunity to aggressively recruit members given indicative workforce and education data.