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Transcript of Northern Ireland Economic and Labour Market Statistics & Sources Central Statistics Office Business...
Northern Ireland Economic and Labour Market Statistics & Sources
Central Statistics Office
Business Statistics Seminar
26th February 2008
Dr. James GillanDepartment of Enterprise Trade and Investment
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland Business Statistics• Produced under National Statistics Protocols
– “The primary aim of National Statistics is to provide an accurate, up-to-date, comprehensive and meaningful picture of the economy and society to support the formulation and monitoring of economic and social policies by government at all levels”
• Primarily conducted by DETI (NISRA staff) • Collected under the Statistics of Trade and
Employment (NI) Order 1988 – Statutory– Confidential
• Statistics Advisory Committee consulted on Burden on Business obligations
Labour Force
Employee Jobs
Claimants
Redundancy
Earnings
Labour Market Macroeconomic
Northern Ireland Regional GVA
Employee jobs: QES
Employee jobs: Census
Index of Production
Index of Services
Annual Business Inquiry
Business Register
Business Activity
Research &Development
ManufacturingExports
Northern Ireland Economic Statistics
NI Regional Data
ServiceExports
Innovation
Index of Construction
Comparison of LFS and QNHS
• LFS• Use ILO Definitions• HH survey with wave structure• Weighted to population
(age/sex/region)• 3,250 HH’s per qtr (0.5% of all)• Sampling error – higher
– Employment CV ~1.3%
– Unemployment CV ~8.3%
• 16+ population (school age)• Calendar Qtrs, Rolling-Monthly
& Rolling Annual data• Quarterly from Spring ‘95
• QNHS• Use ILO Definitions• HH survey with wave structure• Weighted to population
(age/sex/region)• 39,000 HH’s per qtr (2.7%)• Sampling error – lower
– Employment CV ~0.4%
– Unemployment CV ~2.4%
• 15+ population (school age)• Seasonal Quarter data
Trends in Employment (Index 1997=100)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
RoI
NI
UK
Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics OfficeNorthern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment RoI figures relate to 15+, NI/UK figures to 16+ due to differences in school-leaving age.
-40%
-20%
0%20%
40%
60%
80%100%
120%
140%
160%
% Change in Employment 1997-2007 by Sector in Main Job
RoI
NI
UK
Unemployment rates
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
RoI
NI
UK
Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics OfficeNorthern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment RoI figures relate to 15+, NI/UK figures to 16+ due to differences in school-leaving age.
Economic Activity rates
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
RoI
NI
UK
Reason for Economic Inactivity, NI & RoI Proportion of working age population, 2005
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Student Family/Home Retired Sick/Disabled Other
NI
RoI
UK
Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)
• The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) is a business survey that has been carried out in Northern Ireland since 1978 and provides estimates of the number of employee jobs in NI.
• QES counts the number of jobs rather than the number of persons with jobs. For example, a person holding both a full-time job and a part-time job, or someone with two part-time jobs, will be counted twice.
• The QES has a sample size of approximately 5,400 and covers all public sector bodies, all private sector firms with 25 or more employees and a sample of the remainder.
• The sample size has been chosen in order that estimates of total employee jobs should be accurate to within +/- 1% of the Northern Ireland Census of Employment total.
• No directly comparable Republic of Ireland employee jobs measure.
Public Sector jobs in NI and Ireland (Indexed): 1997 - 2007
Sources:
Republic of Ireland: Public Sector Quarterly Survey Central Statistics Office
Northern Ireland: Quarterly Employment Survey. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment
UK: ONS
90
100
110
120
130
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1997
= 1
00 NI
ROI
UK
Proportion of all jobs in Public Sector in UK, NI and Ireland: 1997 - 2007
15
20
25
30
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
UK
NI
ROI
Sources:
Republic of Ireland: Quarterly National Household Survey & Public Sector Quarterly Survey Central Statistics Office
Northern Ireland: Quarterly Employment Survey. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment
UK: ONS
Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
• UK-wide sample survey that provides a wide range of information onhourly, weekly and annual earnings by gender, work patterns, age,industry and occupation inter alia
1% sample of N. Ireland PAYE, completed by employer only.2,500 businesses; C. 6,000 persons; response rate of 97%; CV 1.5% median gross f/t wages
• Replaced New Earnings Survey in 2004 to address weaknesses indesign:
Improved coverage (flows on/off PAYE)Results weighted to LFS employee population by age, sex, occupation, region Median values used in preference to mean to report earningsProvides estimates of basic and total paid hours worked. LFS for actual hrs.
Carried out by Office of National Statistics (ONS) in Great Britain, andby Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment in Northern Ireland
Comparability between NI and RoI earnings statistics
The National Employment Survey (NES) is currently the most comparable annual survey of earnings (c. 8,000 selected enterprises) to ASHE in the Republic of Ireland.
SIC/NACE and occupational coverage is broadly comparable.
Differences include sample design, grossing (QNHS SIC);
The NES 2006 reference period was at March 2006, while the ASHE reference period is always April of each year. While the NES is being conducted annually from 2006 onwards, an annual time-series does not currently exist.
The NES is moving to an October reference period which may further reduce comparability
Caution if using earlier surveys for comparisons
Median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees in the private sector in NI and UK, 1997-2007
200
300
400
5001
99
7
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
*
20
04
20
05
20
06
*
20
06
20
07
£ p
er
week
NI Private UK Private
* The introduction of methodological changes to improve the quality of ASHE data has resulted in discontinuities in trends.
Median gross weekly earnings (£) for full-time employees, 2006 UK and Ireland
394.8 400.0 402.5 409.0 412.5 413.7 416.8 419.1 428.1440.6 443.6 444.8 449.8
469.0456.2
569.2
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
£ pe
r wee
k
Northern Ireland Regional Accounts
• The first official estimates of GDP for NI were published in 1965.
• Official and consistent estimates covering all UK regions did not appear until 1977.
• More recently the production of the UK “Regional” Accounts has been the responsibility of the ONS.– Gross Value Added (-2006), by Industry to 2004 – Gross Disposable Household Income (-2005) and – Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-2001) – Individual Consumption Expenditure (-1999)
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=7359
• Public Expenditure information for NI and the UK published by HM Treasury http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/economic_data_and_tools/finance_spending_statistics/pes_publications/pespub_index.cfm
NI Economic Structure in Comparison to RoI 2004
-17.5 -15.0 -12.5 -10.0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5
Agriculture
Production
Construction
Distribution, Hotels,Transport
Financial, BusinessServices
Public Adminiatrtion,Health , Education
Ind
ust
ry
% Difference (NI-ROI)
DETI ABI and CSO Sectoral Inquiries
• ABI• Meets Structural Business Reg• Coverage Part Agriculture;
Production, Construction, Services excluding Finance, No public sector (with exceptions)
• All 20+ Manufacturing• Sample by SIC Section and
Size band • 4,500 Reporting Units, c 1% • Turnover, GVA, Capex, LU
Employment (Sept.) and costs, Limited expenses breakdown Trade in services; e-commerce
• UK consistent, ONS modelling
• CIP, ASI, CBC….. • Meets Structural Business Reg• Similar coverage (Finance)• All 20+ Manufacturing• CIP total sample size 5,000 • ASI total sample size 25,000• Turnover, GVA, Capex, LU
Employment (Sept.) and costs, family business; ecommerce
• More detailed LU financial info• Includes exports and imports• Much more detailed business
expenditure information
NI vs ROI Manufacturing GVA per worker (2001-2006)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2001-2006
eurosROI NI
NI vs ROI Manufacturing GVA per worker (2001-2006)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2001-2006
euros
ROI
NI
DomesticROIDomesticNI
NI and ROI Trade (HMRC and NI Manufacturing Exports Survey)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
250019
96
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
(p)
£m
NI MSES
HMRC ROI toNI
HMRC NI toROI
Exporting NI Services - RoI
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Exp
ort
of
Ser
vice
s -
RO
I as
% o
f S
ervi
ce E
xpo
rts
Computer & RelatedActivities
Architectural & EngineeringActivities and Technical Testing &Analysis1
Research & Development
Business & ManagementConsultancy Activities
Advertising
Market Research
Creative Entertainment
Comparison of Research and Development (R&D) in Northern Ireland (NI) Vs Republic of Ireland (ROI)
• R&D in Northern Ireland
• Annual surveys covering Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD), Higher Education Expenditure (HERD) and Government Expenditure (GERD).
• The Northern Ireland R&D survey has been carried out annually since 2001 and previously was conducted triennially in 1993,1996 and 1999.
• Most recent figures related to 2006
• R&D survey consists of all businesses
thought to be carrying out research and development work as defined in the “Frascati” manual and the latest NI survey consists of 794 firms.
R&D in Republic of Ireland
• Biennial surveys covering Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD), Higher Education Expenditure (HERD) and R&D in the public sector
• Most recent carried out for year 2005 but provisional estimates are available for 2006
• R&D survey consists of all businesses thought to be carrying out research and development work as defined in the “Frascati” manual and the latest ROI survey consists of 3,750 firms
Trends in Business Research and Development (BERD) (Index 1996=100) in cash terms
90
140
190
240
290
340
390
1996 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
RoI
NI
Sources Republic of Ireland: Forfás Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment
Research and Development Expenditure
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Sw
eden
Finland
US
A
Germ
any
OE
CD
Total
France
UK
Netherlands
Norw
ay
Northern Ireland
Ireland
Italy
Spain
Portugal
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
NI UK
Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D Trend in R&D spend (BERD) as % of GDP, 2005 or latest available year as % of GVA 2001-2006
Source: OECD Factbook 2007: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics Northern Ireland figure, Total Expenditure on R&D
as % of GVA 2006
Source: ONS and DETI
BERD – Business Expenditure on R&D
Community Innovation SurveyThe UK and Republic of Ireland innovation surveys were completed as part of the EU Community Innovationset of surveys and use the Eurostat core questionnaire used by the EU 27. Results were collected within theUK by the Department of Trade and Industry and in the Republic of Ireland by Forfás.
Data on a variety of innovation activities was gathered obeying the strict international methodologicalguidelines as laid out in the OECD Oslo Manual, and core industrial sectors covered by the EU surveys werefirms with 10 or more employees in the following SIC/NACE sectors:
10-14 Mining and Quarrying;15-37 Manufacturing40-41 Electricity, Gas and Water51 Wholesale Trade60-64 Transport, Storage and Communication65-67 Financial Services72 Software Consultancy and Supply74.2 Engineering and Technical Consultancy74.3 Technical Testing and Analysis
Please note that the following additional sectors were covered in the UK survey, but have been excluded fromNI and UK results in the following slides to allow for direct comparability:
45 Construction50 Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles52 Retail trade55 Hotels and restaurants70 Real estate71 Rental of machinery and equipment73 R&DRemainder of SIC 74 (i.e. excl. 74.2 and 74.3) – Other Business Activities
Innovation active rates (per cent of businesses) for respondents to the Community Innovation Survey, 2002-04
0102030405060708090
100G
erm
any
Aust
riaLu
xem
bour
gIre
land
*Ic
elan
dD
enm
ark
Belg
ium
Swed
enEs
toni
aC
ypru
s NI
Finl
and
Uni
ted
King
dom
Portu
gal
Gro
up A
vera
geC
zech
Rep
ublic
Nor
way Ita
lyG
reec
eSp
ain
Net
herla
nds
Fran
ceLi
thua
nia
Slov
enia
Pola
ndSl
ovak
iaH
unga
ryM
alta
Rom
ania
Latv
iaBu
lgar
ia
Per
cent
age
All10-49 employees50-249 employees250+ employees
* Ireland results are provisional.Source: Eurostat, DETI Statistics Research Branch
Innovation active rates (%) by business size and Industry and Services sectors, 2002-04
Source: Eurostat, DETI Statistics Research Branch
Business Size Industry Services
10-49 50-249 250+All
businesses SIC C-E
SIC I, J, 51, 72,
74.2, 74.3
Ireland 47.2 65.3 75.1 52.2 60.9 43.8
NI 43.7 50.8 74.1 45.7 47.4 44.2
United Kingdom 39.9 52.6 62.5 43.0 44.4 41.8
Conclusions• NI economic and labour market statistics provision compares
favourably against UK regions– No regional prices, limited domestic consumption statistics– Regional Accounts re-engineering
• Potential for greater NI-ROI comparability– Inherent difficulties in national vs devolved comparisons – Greater North-South dimension for existing series, metadata– Trade, productivity measures, business costs need development– Burden on business
• Allsopp Review• EU standards • SIC 2007 • The user view