Northern Forest Futures Project

USDA Forest ServiceNorthern Research StationSouthern Research StationState and Private Forestry

Northeastern Area Association of State Foresters

University of Missouri

Northern Forest Futures

• A window on tomorrow's forests

• Revealing how today's trends and choices can change the future landscape of the North

• Collaborative undertaking

• Complements other efforts

Introduction

The North MaineMinnesota

Missouri

Maryland

Introduction

Forests and People

Pacific Coast37% forested

Interior West20% forested

South40% forested

North42% forested

9%

16%

41%

34%

Northern Forests in Context

Three Components of NFFP

1. Analysis of shared forest resource issues2. Assessment of current forest conditions and

recent trends3. Projections of expected forest conditions

2010-2060 under alternative scenarios– Succession, growth, harvest– Land use change– Climate– Invasives, bioenergy, socio-economic factors

Introduction

Forest Resource Issues in the North

• Dietzman, LaJeunesse, and Wormstead 2011. Scoping of issues in the forests of the Northeast and Midwest of the United States

• Based on–700 comments–74 source documents–Primarily 2004-2009

Issues

Stephen Shifley Francisco Aguilar Nianfu Song

Susan Stewart David Nowak Dale Gormanson

Keith Moser Sherri Wormstead Eric Greenfield

Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators 1. Conservation of biological diversity

2. Maintenance of productive capacity of forest ecosystems

3. Maintenance of forest ecosystem health and vitality

4. Conservation and maintenance of soil and water resources

5. Maintenance of forest contributions to global carbon cycles

6. Maintenance and enhancement of long-term multiple socioeconomic benefits to meet the needs of societies

7. Legal, institutional and economic framework for forest conservation and sustainable management

8. Urban and community forests

Sustainable Forest Criteria and Indicators

Fragmentation: Interior Forest

Criterion 1: Biodiversity

Percent of County Forest Area that is “Interior” Forest

Source: Kurt Riitters

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

10

20

30

Year

Volu

me

(bill

ion

cubi

c fe

et)

Increasing Volume Over Time

Criterion 2: Productive capacity

PennsylvaniaNew YorkWest Virginia

Criterion 6: Socioeconomic benefits

Jobs• 441,000 jobs –40 percent of U.S. total in the sector

• Average wage $43K• 16 fatalities/year

Forestry and Logging

3%Wood

Products44%

Pulp and Paper53%

Summarization of 36 IndicatorsHighly positive

Positive

Neutral

Negative

Highly negative

• Forests of the Northern United States• Executive summary • Northern Forest Futures website

• Outstanding data exploration tools for current conditions

Current Products

• http://nrs.fs.fed.us/futures/

Interactive Data Tools

http://nrs.fs.fed.us/futures/dashboard/

• Recreation Analysis(Published in summer 2012)

• Projections 2010-2060- Succession, growth, harvest- Land use change- Climate- Invasives, bioenergy, socio-economic factors

(Published in 2013)

Stay Tuned

Progress Report on Projection System

Keith Moser, Projections Team Leader