Northeast River Forecast CenterDOC-NOAA-NWS

SNEC-SWCS

Edward J CaponeService Coordination Hydrologist

Edward.Capone@noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Centerweather.gov/nerfc

NWS River Forecast Centers

• Mission: Protection of Life and Property– Flood Guidance– Water Supply

• 13 River Forecast Centers across USA

• 122 Weather Forecast Offices

National Weather Service Hydrologic Services

Built upon 13 River Forecast Centers Calibrate and implement a variety of hydrologic and

hydraulic models and provide temperature and precipitation forecasts for the production of river flow and stage forecasts, inflow hydrograph forecasts, flash flood guidance, extended stream flow prediction, water resources information

Primary customers include the WFOs, Reservoir Operators, USACE Reservoir Control, USGS, Hydropower, FEMA, NFMS, NOS

Staffs mix of meteorologists, hydrologists, civil and environmental engineers/scientists

18 hr a day operations – 24 hrs during floods.

Weather Forecast Office New York/New England Service Areas

WFO Caribou, ME Northeast Maine counties

WFO Gray, ME Southwest Maine and most of

New Hampshire Less Cheshire and Hillsboro

WFO Burlington, VT Northern 2/3rds of VT

WFO Albany, NY Srn 1/3 of VT, Berkshire, MA,

Litchfield, CT WFO Taunton, MA

Rest of MA, all of RI, and the northern 2/3rds of CT

WFO Upton, NY All coastal CT Counties

WFO Binghamton, NY Finger Lakes region

WFO Buffalo, NY Buffalo Creeks, Genesee and

Black

Weather Forecast Office Responsibilities

Watch/Warning responsibilities Coordinate final adjustments to

RFC forecast guidance for their warning issuances

Issue and coordinate all watches/warnings with local interests

Flood/Flash Flood Drought/Water Resource Hydrologic Outlooks

Define forecast service requirements

Establish flood stages and impact statements for forecast points

Work with RFC on developing modeling requirements

EMA community collaborates directly Weather Forecast Office during events

Northeast RFC

• Nearly 200 forecast location– Time to Peak: 6-48 hours– Elevation from 0 – 6600 ft

• River Basins– Connecticut– Hudson– Merrimack– Kennebec– St John

• Staff of 14• Located in Taunton,

Massachusetts

Forecasts on Watersheds in Connecticut

Connecticut Farmington Housatonic Yantic Quinebaug Willimantic Thames

River Forecast Center Responsibilities

Calibrate and implement variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models and produce temperature and precipitation forecasts to provide:

River flow and stage forecasts at NEARLY 200 locations

Guidance on the rainfall needed to produce Flash Flooding

Ensemble streamflow predictions

Ice Jam and Dam Break support

Water Supply forecasts Reservoir Inflow Forecasts

Moderate flooding - Connecticut River at

Portland, CT.

Critical Partners DOI - USGS Water Science

Centers Enhancing the public safety by

providing data for forecasting and managing floods

Characterizing current water-quality conditions Determining input rates of various pollutants into lakes,

reservoirs, or estuaries Computing the loads of sediment and chemical constituents Understanding the biological effects of contamination Delineating and managing flood plains Operating and designing multipurpose reservoirs Setting permit requirements for discharge of treated

wastewater Designing highway bridges and culverts Setting minimum flow requirements for meeting aquatic life

goals Monitoring compliance with minimum flow requirements Developing or operating recreation facilities Scheduling power production Designing, operating, and maintaining navigation facilities Allocating water for municipal, industrial, and irrigation uses Administering compacts or resolving conflicts on interstate

rivers Defining and apportioning the water resources at our

international borders Evaluating surface- and ground-water interaction Undertaking scientific studies of long-term changes in the

hydrologic cycle

Critical PartnersUS Army Corps of Engineers New England District

– Reservoir Control

Buffalo, NY District – Mount Morris Dam

CWMS – Corps Water Management System

Prerequisites for a Forecast

Established gage location

Need historical record Both gage data And temp/precip

Define basin and appropriate segments

Calibrate model Develop forecast

scheme Current limitation:

=/> 100 sqmi =/> 6 hr response time

Connecticut River Watershed Configuration

Soil Moisture Modeling and Calibration

Sacramento Soil Moisture Model Input: Rain/Melt from snow model Models motion of water through

upper and lower soil layers Outflow time series consists of

multiple runoff and base flow sources

HEC-RAS for hydraulic reaches such as Tidal Hudson/Connecticut

Snow17 Snowmelt model Inventory and Analysis of

Historical Data – 1948 to 2010 daily forcings

Time Series Based on Historical Data

Model Selection Calibration of Model Parameters SACSMA, SNOW17, Reservoir

Ops Hydraulic Model calibration done

separately – former 1D FLDWAV and now 1D HEC-RAS

Process Starts with Data Q/C

COOP Data, ASOS, Mesonets, CoCoRAHS Radar estimates are combined with observations to produce

an hourly mosaic grid and basin average estimate of rainfall Mean (6 hr) Areal Precip & Temp basin averages - past 24 hrs

Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimator

Hourly Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimation(Radar / Gage Mosaic)

Hourly Multi-Sensor Grid Production(1 hour grid analysis)

Precipitation/Temperature Forecasting

Hydro-met Analysis Support forecaster

Rainfall forecasts out 48-72 hours Longer for

contingency guidance Temperature

forecasts during the cool-season Lower and Upper

zones (upper >2kft) Issued 3 times a day

Community Hydrologic Prediction System(CHPS)

Modular software to enhance collaboration and accelerate R2O

Extension of the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) architecture: Incorporates NWS models with models from FEWS, U.S.

Army Corps of Engineers (ACE), and academia

To help us meet the demands of future water resource services

FEWS

NWS Model

s USACE

ModelsOther

Models

FEWS Model

s

Community Hydrologic Prediction System

The End ResultOur Graphical and Text Forecasts

Exceedance Display Short-Range Probabilistic River Forecasts

Early March 2011 Floods Hurricane Irene’s Approach

River, Rainfall, Temperature and Snowmelt Displays

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Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)

Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisions

• Seamless short- to long-term HEFS within CHPS

Implementation Status: Demonstrating components of short-

term capability at 6 RFCs Will deploy additional prototypes

during the next 2 years Initial version of full capability in 2013

• Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties

Modeling Tides and Storm Surge

Moderate flooding -Connecticut River at Portland, CT.

Moderate flooding -Connecticut River at Chester, CT.

Future Services: National Inundation Mapping

Program

The development of static inundation mapping NWS helps guide you through the process

but it requires dedicated funding on the state/local community’s part

Only available where NWS produces stage forecasts IE: the larger rivers (Connecticut, Blackstone,

Pawtuxet)

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Northeast River Forecast CenterDOC-NOAA-NWS

Edward J CaponeService Coordination Hydrologist

Edward.Capone@noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Centerweather.gov/nerfc