Northeast Economic Outlook 2019 r4 · SMPS Northeast Regional Conference May 2, 2019 ©CERC2018...
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5/20/2019 1 Economic Outlook 2019 SMPS Northeast Regional Conference May 2, 2019 ©CERC2018 About CERC • CERC drives economic development in Connecticut by providing research‐based data, planning and implementation strategies to foster business formation, recruitment and growth. • Private, nonprofit organization; founded in 1992 • Funded by utility and telecommunication companies, state contracts, and fee‐based services • Provides research, municipal, business, real estate, and marketing services
Transcript of Northeast Economic Outlook 2019 r4 · SMPS Northeast Regional Conference May 2, 2019 ©CERC2018...
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EconomicOutlook2019
SMPSNortheastRegionalConferenceMay2,2019
©CERC2018
AboutCERC• CERCdriveseconomicdevelopmentinConnecticutbyprovidingresearch‐baseddata,planningandimplementationstrategiestofosterbusinessformation,recruitmentandgrowth.
• Private,nonprofitorganization;foundedin1992
• Fundedbyutilityandtelecommunicationcompanies,statecontracts,andfee‐basedservices
• Providesresearch,municipal,business,realestate,andmarketingservices
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EconomicOutlook:Overview
• GlobalEconomicTrends
• U.S.EconomicandIndustryTrends
• TheNortheasternStates
• Conclusions
©CERC2018
StableGlobalGrowth
3.7
2.22.5 2.3
1.5
3
1.7 1.7
3
6.9
3.7
2.9
1.91.6
1.2
2.7
1.11.4
2.1
6.6
3.7
2.5
1.91.6
1
2.2
0.9
1.52
6.2
WORLD OUTPUT
UNITED STATES
GERMANY FRANCE ITALY SPAIN JAPAN UNITED KINGDOM
CANADA CHINA
WORLD REAL GDP ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE2017 2018 Projection 2019 Projection
World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, Oct. 2018
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Europe
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
U.K.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2017 2018 2019 Projection
% Change Output Annual Change
AffectedbytheongoingBrexitnegotiations,growthprojectionsforEuropeareadjusteddownward.
World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, Oct. 2018
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EmergingMarkets
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
6
8
Iraq Kuwait SaudiArabia
UnitedArab
Emirates
Brazil Algeria Qatar Argentina Turkey Iran
Percent Change
2017 2018 Projection 2019 Projection
Growth Decline
2017‐2019(Projection)RealGDPGrowth
World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, Oct. 2018
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AsiaChinaandseveralAsianeconomiesareexpectedtoexperienceweakergrowthin2019;Indianeconomykeepsimproving.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Japan Korea Singapore China India ASEAN‐5
Real GDP Change 2017‐2019
2017 2018 Projection 2019 Projection
Percent Change
ASEAN-5: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, Oct. 2018
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U.S.Economicgrowthisstillstrongduetoeffectsoffederaltaxcuts,but2019growthisexpectedtobeweakerasaresultofuncertaintradeenvironments,includingtariffnegotiationswithChina
2.22.7 2.5
0
1
2
3
2017 2018 2019 Projection
U.S. Real GDP % Change
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S&P500IndexJan‐ April
Yahoo! Finance
2019 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14
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U.S. Census Bureau
U.S.PopulationbyAge‐ 2017
Under 18, 22.9%
18‐24, 9.7%
25‐44, 26.4%
45‐64, 26.1%
65 and over, 14.9%
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U.S.PopulationbyRace‐2017
White alone, 73.0%
Black or African American alone,
12.7%
American Indian and Alaska Native
alone, 0.8%
Asian alone, 5.4%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone,
0.2%
Some other race alone, 4.8%
Two or more races, 3.1%
U.S. Census Bureau
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U.S.PopulationbyRace‐2017
Hispanic or Latino, 18%
Non‐Hispanic or Latino, 82%
U.S. Census Bureau
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U.S.Employment
120000
125000
130000
135000
140000
145000
150000
155000
12‐Jan 13‐Jan 14‐Jan 15‐Jan 16‐Jan 17‐Jan 18‐Jan
In thousand U.S. Employment
St. Louis Fed
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U.S.Productivity2012‐2018
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
2012‐07‐01 2013‐07‐01 2014‐07‐01 2015‐07‐01 2016‐07‐01 2017‐07‐01 2018‐07‐01
Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output Per Hour of All Persons, Index 2012=100, Quarterly, Seasonally AdjustedSource: ST. Louis Fed
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U.S.MedianHouseholdIncome
$50,000
$51,000
$52,000
$53,000
$54,000
$55,000
$56,000
$57,000
$58,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
U.S. Median Household Income
U.S. Census Bureau
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Retail:TheExperiencePhysicalstores:Experiencesthatmakethecustomerfeelrelaxed andcomfortable leadtoincreasesinsalesandacleardifferentiationfromtheonlineexperience.
OnlineStores:Inadditiontoofferingfasterdeliverytimes,onlinebusinesseshaveformedpartnershipswithstoresforpick‐up andreturn options.
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Manufacturing:Automation
• Automationandrobotictechnologybecomesmorewidespread• Willcausedisruptionordisplacementofjobsbutwillalsocreateapproximately15millionnewjobsintheU.S.overthenextdecade
Afundamentaleconomictransition
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Insurance
•InnovativeInsurTechCompanies
•YoungerAudience
•TechnologyDriven
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Construction
• Technologysupplementing,notreplacing,humanworkers
• Design‐build'spopularitygrowing
• Buildingleancuttingwasteinallforms
• Moredronestakingflight
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• Morewaystoreceivecare
• Mergersamongproviders
• Consolidationmeanspriceincrease
Healthcare
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Pharmaceuticals• Advancesinmedicaltechnology(3Dprintedorgans,cells;Nanobots;Bionics)
• Introductionofnewtherapies:geneediting,cellularprogramming,etc.
• Personalizedmedicine(wearablemonitoring;apps;digitalmedicine)
• OrphandrugsdominateFDA'srecord‐breakingyear(2018)
• FDApromisestospeedbiosimilarsandcellandgenetherapiesin2019
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• Residential/smallbusinesses:moreenergychoices,canchooselessexpensiveorexpressenvironmentalpreferences
• Largecommercial:sustainability,resiliency,gridindependence• Installers:growingmarkettoinstallsolarandmicrogrids• Distributors:needtosmoothoutrenewablesathigherpenetrationlevels
Energy
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TotalPopulation
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
2012 2017
U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 estimates
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PopulationPercentageChange2012‐2017
3.5%
2.1%
1.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
‐0.1%
Massachusetts
New York
New Jersey
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Maine
Vermont
U.S. Census Bureau
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GDPperCapita2017
Bureau of Economic Analysis
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000
Massachusetts
New York
Connecticut
New Jersey
United States
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Maine
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NetMigration
‐1500000 ‐1000000 ‐500000 0 500000 1000000
New York
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New Hampshire
Maine
Vermont
Domestic International
U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 estimates
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TotalMigrationasaPercentageofTotalPopulation
3.3%
2.4%
1.4%
0.2%
‐0.3%
‐0.4%
‐1.5%
‐1.6%
‐2.6%
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Maine
Pennsylvania
Vermont
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey
New York
U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 estimates
Total Migration = Domestic + International Migration
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HouseholdIncome
U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 estimates
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Connecticut Maine Massachusetts NewHampshire
New Jersey New York Rhode Island Pennsylvania Vermont
over $150k
$100k to $150k
$50k to $100k
Under $50k
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HousingPermitsin2018
24,576
37,397
27,639
15,255
4,526
4570
3,780
1,833
1,224
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Pensylvania
New York
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Maine
Connecticut
New Hampshire
Vermont
Rhode Island
1 Unit 2 Unit 3 & 4 Unit 5 + Units
U.S. Census Building Permits Survey 2018
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TopCountries‐ Imports
U.S. Census 2018
1 2 3
Connecticut Canada Mexico China
Maine Canada China Netherlands
Massachusetts Canada China Mexico
New Hampshire Canada China Japan
New Jersey China Germany Canada
New York China Canada India
Pennsylvania China Canada Mexico
Rhode Island Mexico Germany China
Vermont Canada China France
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TopCountries‐ Exports
U.S. Census 2018
1 2 3
Connecticut France Germany Canada
Maine Canada China Malaysia
Massachusetts Canada China Mexico
New Hampshire Canada China Malaysia
New Jersey Germany Canada Ireland
New York Canada Hong Kong Switzerland
Pennsylvania Canada Mexico China
Rhode Island Canada Dominican Mexico
Vermont Canada Hong Kong Taiwan
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Business
Connecticut 1 2 3 ‐
Maine 1 2 3 ‐
Massachusetts 1 3 ‐ 2
New Hampshire
2 3 1 ‐
New Jersey 1 2 3 ‐
New York 1 2 3 ‐
Pennsylvania 1 2 3 ‐
Rhode Island 1 2 3 ‐
Vermont 1 2 3 ‐U.S. BEA 2017
Top3Industries,byEmployment
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U.S.News‘BestStates’RankingsOverall Rank
State Healthcare Education Economy Opportunity InfrastructureCrime &
CorrectionsFiscal
StabilityQuality of
Life
5 New Hampshire 13 4 11 1 37 2 26 4
8 Massachusetts 5 1 9 14 45 5 40 25
9 Vermont 6 8 31 6 35 7 16 26
19 New Jersey 12 2 41 10 28 3 49 49
22 Maine 22 19 37 26 43 1 29 12
24 Connecticut 4 14 43 29 41 8 41 38
25 New York 15 23 35 43 19 11 28 37
28 Rhode Island 8 27 29 34 48 13 33 23
38 Pennsylvania 23 38 34 16 29 27 42 44
Best States Rankings, U.S. News
©CERC2018
EconomicOutlook:Conclusions
• Projectionforglobaleconomicgrowthispositive• Projectionfornationaleconomicgrowthispositiveyetsoftening
• companiescuttingprofitforecastsandtemperingexpectationsfor
earningsgrowthfor2019afterabig2018
• IndustrytransitionsaffectNortheaststateswithsimilarstructures
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ThankYou
AlissaDeJonge,VicePresidentofResearch,[email protected]
860.571.7136or1.800.392.2122
www.cerc.com
@CERCInc
