North American LNG Projects and Outlook - Quest Events · 2015-11-06 · Sabine Pass Trains 5‐6...

North American LNG Projects and Outlook

June 2014

© 2014 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu 1

About your presenter: Geoffrey Cann

• National Director, Oil and Gas, Deloitte Brisbane

• 25 years with Deloitte

• Canada, Korea, Japan, China, Hong Kong,

Australia, USA, Caribbean

• Strategy, transformation, cost reduction

• Blog: www.geoffreycann.com

• Twitter: @geoffreycann

• Email: [email protected]

• Phone: 0447-366-333

mailto:[email protected]


North Americans are eyeing a promising market

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Global LNG demand (bcf/d)

Japan Korea China Other Asia & Pacific Europe India Latin America


KJT may be slowing, but other AsiaPac beckons

-2%

2%

19%

13%

7%

15%

19%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Japan

Korea

China

Other Asia & Pacific

Europe

India

Latin America

LNG demand growth forecast 2013-20 CAGR (%)


Latter half of the decade belongs to NA

Source: IHS CERA, RBC Capital Markets

Global Liquefaction Capacity Growth Outlook 2008-20


68 mtpa approved to non-FTA countries

Source: RBC Capital Markets, March 26th 2014

Project

Final

Investment

Decision (FID)

Offtake

Agreement(s)

DOE Export

Approval

(FTA)

DOE Export

Approval

(Non‐FTA)

FERC

Application

Submitted

FERC

Construction

Approval

Sabine Pass

(18mtpa,

2015‐17)

Freeport LNG

(13.2mtpa, 2018)

Lake Charles

(15mtpa, 2019)

Cove Point LNG

(5.3mtpa, 2017)

Cameron LNG

(12mtpa, 2018)

Jordan Cove:

(6mtpa, 2018‐19)

Oregon LNG

(9.6mtpa, 2019)

Corpus Christi

(13.5mtpa, 2018)

Lavaca Bay

FLNG:

(4.4ttpa, 2018)

Incomplete Complete


Additional 41 mtpa awaiting approval to non-FTA countries

Source: RBC

Project

Final

Investment

Decision (FID)

Offtake

Agreement(s)

DOE Export

Approval

(FTA)

DOE Export

Approval

(Non‐FTA)

FERC

Application

Submitted

FERC

Construction

Approval

Gulf Coast LNG:

(21mtpa, 2018)

Elba Island LNG

(2.5mtpa,

2016‐17)

Gulf LNG

(10mtpa, 2019)

CE FLNG

(8mtpa, 2018)

Golden Pass:

(15.6mtpa, 2018)

Main Pass

Energy:

(24mtpa, 2018‐19)

Magnolia LNG

(8 mtpa, 2018)

Incomplete Complete


The US form guide to LNG

• Tolling structures

• Multiple market exposures

• HH indexed pricing

• Brownfield capital cost

• Low operating cost

• Asian partners

• Deep supply base

• Reusable infrastructure

• EPA rules, demand growth

• Mexican demand

• Weather

• Panama Canal pricing

• HH pricing volatility

• Regulatory environment

• Social license

• Contract time limits

Handicaps Strategies to Win


Canada has 112 mtpa awaiting customers

Source: RBC Capital Markets, March 26th 2014

Project Upstream

Gas Supply FID

Offtake

Agreements

NEB Export

Approval

Douglas Channel LNG (1.8mtpa, 2016)

Kitimat LNG (10mtpa, TBD)

Pacific NorthWest: (12‐18mtpa,

2019‐20)

LNG Canada (12‐24mtpa, 2020)

Prince Rupert: (14‐22mtpa, 2020‐21)

WCC LNG (10‐30mtpa, 2021‐23)

Woodfibre LNG (2.1mtpa, 2017)

Triton LNG (2.3mtpa, TBD)

Aurora LNG (24mtpa, 2021‐23)

Woodside Petroleum (TBD)

Goldboro LNG (10mtpa, 2019‐20)

Incomplete Complete Partially Complete


The Canadian form guide to LNG

• Freight

• Long contracts

• Huge resource

• Low gas cost

• Atlantic, Pacific exposure

• Asian partners

• Energy security

• Capital experience

• Favourable regulatory

• Greenfield capital cost

• Labour, supply constraints

• Fiscal uncertainty

• Infrastructure constraints

• Pipelines

• Oil-indexed pricing

• Social license challenges

Handicaps Strategies to Win


Australia will win the race to 2016 …

• Close out existing projects

• Become excellent in all operations

• Deliver high reliability

• Explore brownfield options

• Work on social license


… but needs to take out $4/mcf in capital costs

5.44 4.93 4.82 6.95

2.88

2.43 2.17 2.31

1.58

3.26

5.3

4.1 3.6 2.5

4.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Eastern Australia(CSG)

East Africa(Mozambique)

West CoastCanada (Montney)

Western Australia(Conventional)

US Gulf Coast(Haynesville)

Integrated supply cost comparisons Estimated Capital Cost ranges

Liquefaction Processing & Transporation Upstream Cost

$10-12/mcf $11-12/mcf $11-13/mcf $11-13/mcf

$13-14/mcf

© 2014 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

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Confidential This document and the information contained in it are confidential and should

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US LNG Export Projects: Overview

Source: FERC, API, RBC

LNG Export Projects Type Size (mtpa) Location Start-Up Partners DOE Status

Sabine Pass Trains 1‐4 Brownfield 16 Sabine, Louisiana 2015-19 Cheniere Energy Approved

Freeport LNG Brownfield 10.5 Freeport, Texas 2018-19 Michael Smith Approved

Lake Charles Brownfield 15 Lake Charles,

Louisiana 2019 Energy Transfer, BG Group Approved

Cove Point Brownfield 5.3 Lusby, Maryland 2017-18 Dominion Resources Inc Approved

Freeport LNG* Brownfield 3 Freeport, Texas 2018-19 Michael Smith Approved

Cameron LNG Brownfield 12 Hackberry, Louisiana 2019 GDF Suez, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sempra

Energy Approved

Jordan Cove Greenfield 6 Coos Bay, Oregon 2018-19 Veresen Inc Approved

Oregon LNG Greenfield 9.6 Warrenton, Oregon 2019 LNG Development Company Review

Corpus Christi Greenfield 15 Corpus Christi, Texas 2018+ Cheniere Energy Review

Lavaca Bay FLNG Greenfield 10 Port Lavaca, Texas 2018 Excelerate Energy Review

Gulf Coast LNG Greenfield 21 Brownsville, Texas 2018 Basin Exploration Company Review

Elba Island LNG Brownfield 4 Savannah, Georgia 2017-18 Southern LNG/Kinder Morgan Review

Gulf LNG Liquefaction Brownfield 11.5 Pascagoula, Mississippi 2019-20 GE Energy ,Kinder Morgan Review

CE FLNG Greenfield 8 Plaquemines Parish 2018 Cambridge Energy Review

Golden Pass Brownfield 15.6 Sabine, Texas 2018 Golden Pass Products LLC Review

South Texas LNG Greenfield 8 Corpus Christi, Texas 2017+ Pangea, Statoil Review

Main Pass Energy Greenfield 24 Offshore Louisiana 2016-17 Freeport-McMoRan Energy Review

Sabine Pass Train 5 Brownfield 2 Sabine, Louisiana 2019 Cheniere Energy Review

Sabine Pass Train 5 Brownfield 1.8 Sabine, Louisiana 2019 Cheniere Energy Review

Venture Global LNG Greenfield 5 Lake Charles,

Louisiana 2018+ Venture Global LLC Review

Eos LNG Greenfield 12 Brownsville, Texas TBD Eos LNG LLC Review

Barca LNG Greenfield 12 Brownsville, Texas TBD Barca LNG LLC Review

Sabine Pass Trains 5‐6 Brownfield 6.4 Sabine, Texas 2019 Cheniere Energy Review

Magnolia LNG Greenfield 8 Lake Charles,

Louisiana 2018 LNG Ltd Review

Delfin FLNG Greenfield 13 Offshore Louisiana 2017-20 Delfin LNG LLC Review

Waller Point LNG Greenfield 1.5 Lake Charles,

Louisiana TBD Waller LNG Services, LLC Review

Gasfin Development Greenfield 1.5 Lake Charles,

Louisiana 2019+ Gasfin Development USA, LLC Review

Texas LNG Greenfield 2 Brownsville, Texas 2018 Texas LNG LLC Review

Louisiana LNG Energy Greenfield 2 Plaquemines Parish 2017 Louisiana LNG Energy LLC Review

Note*: Freeport- Freeport filed two separate non‐FTA applications (combined 2.8 bcf/d) and received approval for 1.8 bcf/d, consistent with its FERC application;


LNG Export Terminals in the US: Under Review

14

Texas Louisiana

Gulf Coast

Size: 21 mtpa

Partners: Basin Exploration

Company

Capex: US$12 billion

Start date: NA Offtake Agreement: No agreement

Eos LNG LLC and Barca

Size: 12 mtpa, 12 mtppa

Partners: Eros & Barca LLC

Capex: US$3 billion

Start date: 2019 Offtake Agreement: No agreement

Texas LNG

Size: 2 mtpa

Partners: Texas LNG LLC

Capex: NA

Start date: 2018 Offtake Agreement: No

agreement

Corpus Christi

Size: 13.5 mtpa

Partners: Cheniere Energy

Capex: NA

Start date: 2018+ Offtake Agreement: 3.2 mtpa,

Endesa (1.5), Pertamina (0.8)

South Texas LNG

Size: 8 mtpa

Partners: Pangea LNG, Statoil

NA

Capex: US$5-6 billion

Start date: 2017+ Offtake Agreement: No

agreement

Lavaca Bay FLNG

Size: 4.4 mtpa

Partners: Excelerate Energy

Capex: US$2 billion

Start date: 2018+ Offtake Agreement: No agreement

Golden Pass

Size: 15.6 mtpa

Partners: Exxon Mobil / Qatar Petroleum


Start date: 2018 Offtake Agreement: No agreement

Louisiana LNG

Size: 2 mtpa

Partners: Louisiana LNG

Energy

Capex: NA


agreement

Oregon LNG

Size: 9.6 mtpa

Partners:

LNG Developm

ent Company

Capex: US6.3

billion

Start date:

2019 Offtake

Agreement: No

agreement

Main Pass Energy Hub

Size: 24 mtpa

Partners: Freeport-McMoran

Energy, United LNG

Capex: NA

Start date: 2018-19 Offtake Agreement: 4 Mtpa,

Petronet LNG Limited (4)

Waller LNG

Size: 1.5 mtpa

Partners: Waller LNG Services

Capex: NA

Start date: TBD Offtake Agreement: No

agreement

Gasfin LNG

Size: 1.5 mtpa

Partners: Gasfin Development

Capex: NA


agreement

Venture global LNG

Size: 5.1 mtpa

Partners: Venture Global LLC

Capex: NA


agreement

Elba Island LNG

Size: 2.5 mtpa

Partners: Southern LNG/Kinder

Morgan

Capex: US$1.4-2 billion

Start date: 2017-18 Offtake Agreement: No

agreement

Oregon

Georgia

Source: FERC, API

Magnolia LNG

Size: 8 mtpa

Partners: LNG Ltd

Capex: US$3.7 billion

Start date: 2018 Offtake Agreement: 1.7

mtpa, West face capital

(1.7)

Gulf LNG

Size: 11.5 mtpa

Partners: GE Energy ,Kinder Morgan


Start date: 2019-20 Offtake Agreement: No agreement

CE FLNG

Size: 8.2 mtpa

Partners: Cambridge

Energy

Capex: NA

Start date: 2018

Offtake Agreement: No

agreement

Delfin LNG

Size: 13 mtpa

Partners: Delfin LNG LLC

Capex: NA



LNG Export Terminals in the US: Approved for Export

Jordan Cove

Size: 6-9 mtpa

Partners: Veresen Inc



15

Texas Freeport LNG Expansion, L.P. and FLNG

Liquefaction, LLC

Size: 13.2 mtpa

Partners: Michael Smith

Capex: US$3 billion

Start date: 2018-19 Offtake Agreement: 13.2 Mtpa,

Osaka Gas (2.2); Chubu (2.2); BP (4.4); Toshi

ba (2.2); SK E&S (2.2)

Louisiana

Sabine Pass

Size: 27 mtpa

Partners: Cheniere Energy


Start date: 2015-19 Offtake Agreement: 19.8 mtpa,

BG (5.5),Gas Natural Fenosa(3.5), Gail (3.5),

KoGas (3.5), Total (2), Centrica (1.75)

Cameron LNG

Size: 12 mtpa

Partners:

GDF Suez (16.6%); Mitsubishi (16.6%); Mitsui

(16.6%), Sempra Energy (50.2)


Start date: 2019 Offtake Agreement: 0.8 mtpa

CPC Corporation (0.8)

Lake Charles

Size: 15 mtpa

Partners: Energy Transfer, BG Group

Capex: NA

Start date: 2019 Offtake Agreement: 15 Mtpa,

BG (15)

Cove Point

Size: 5.25 mtpa

Partners: Dominion Resources Inc

Capex: US$3.4-3.8 billion

Start date: 2017-18 Offtake Agreement: 5.2 mtpa,

Sumitomo (2.6); Gail (2.6)

Maryland

Oregon

Source: FERC, API

Freeport, Texas


Canada LNG Export Projects: Overview

Source: FERC, API, RBC Capital Markets

LNG Export

Projects Type Size (mtpa) Location Start-Up Partners DOE Status

Douglas Channel Proposed 0.7‐1.8 Kitimat, BC 2016

LNG Partners (47.5%),

Haisla (27.5%),Golar

LNG (25%)

Approved

Kitimat LNG Proposed 10 Kitimat, BC TBD Chevron (50%), Apache

(50%) Approved

Pacific NorthWest Proposed 12‐18 Prince Rupert, BC 2019‐20

PETRONAS (77%),

JAPEX (10%), Indian

Oil (10%), Petroleum

Brunei (3%)

Approved

LNG Canada Proposed 12‐24 Kitimat, BC 2020

Shell (40%), KOGAS

(20%),Mitsubishi (20%),

PetroChina (20%)

Approved

Prince Rupert LNG Proposed 14‐22 Prince Rupert, BC 2020‐21 BG Group (100%) Approved

WCC LNG Proposed 10‐30 TBD, BC 2021‐23 ExxonMobil (50%),

Imperial Oil (50%) Approved

Woodfibre LNG Proposed 2.1 Squamish, BC 2017 Pacific Oil & Gas

(100%) Approved

Triton LNG Proposed 2.3 TBD, BC TBD AltaGas (50%),

Idemitsu (50%) Pending

Kitsault FLNG Proposed 20 Kitsault, BC 2018 Kitsault Energy (100%) Pending

Goldboro LNG Proposed 10 Goldboro, NS 2019‐20 Pieridae Energy (100%) Pending

Aurora LNG Proposed 24 Grassy Point, BC 2021‐23 CNOOC (60%), INPEX

(20%), JGC (20%) Pending

H‐Energy Proposed 4.5 Melford, NS 2020 H‐Energy (100%) NA

Stewart Energy LNG Proposed 5‐30 Stewart, BC 2017+ Canada Stewart Energy

Group (100%) Pending

Woodside Proposed NA Grassy Point, BC NA Woodside Petroleum NA


LNG Export Terminal in Canada: Operating & Planned

17 Source: FERC, API, RBC Capital Markets

Canada

Douglas Channel LNG

Size: 1.8 mtpa

Partners: Haisla Nation, LNG

Partners, Golar LNG


Start date: 2016 Offtake Agreement: Signed,

details not available

LNG Canada

Size: 12-24 mtpa

Partners: Shell, PetroChina,

KOGAS, Mitsubishi


Start date: 2020 Offtake Agreement: Partners are

LNG buyers

Kitimat LNG

Size: 10 mtpa

Partners: Chevron, Apache


Start date: FID 2014 Offtake Agreement: 2 mtpa,

Kogas (2)

Prince Rupert

Size: 14-22 mtpa

Partners: BG Group



agreement

Woodfibre LNG

Size: 2.1; mtpa

Partners: Pacific oil & gas



agreement

Alaska LNG

Size: 15-18 mtpa

Partners: ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil,

BP, Transcanada


Start date: 2023+ Offtake Agreement: No agreement

H-Energy LNG

Size: 4.5 mtpa

Partners: H-Energy

Capex: US$3 billion


agreement

Goldboro LNG

Size: 10 mtpa

Partners: Pieridae Energy

Capex: CAD$5-10 billion

Start date: 2019 Offtake Agreement: E.ON

Global Commodities (5

mtpa)

Pacific NorthWest

Size: 12-18 mtpa

Partners: Petronas, Japex, IndianOil,

Petroleum Brunei, Sinopec


Start date: 2019-20 Offtake Agreement: 3 mtpa, Indian Oil

(1.2), Sinopec (1.8)

Kenai LNG

Size: 0.4 mtpa

Partners: ConocoPhillips

Capex: NA

Start date: Operating

Seasonally Offtake Agreement: NA

Stewart Energy LNG

Size: 5-30 mtpa

Partners: Stewart

Energy

Capex: NA


agreement

Kitsault Energy lng

Size: 20 mtpa

Partners: Kitsault

Energy

Capex: NA


agreement

Aurora LNG

Size: 24 mtpa

Partners: CNOOC,

Inpex, JGC

Capex: NA


agreement

Woodside Petroleum

Size: TBD

Partners: TBD

Capex: TBD

Start date: TBD Offtake Agreement: No

agreement WCC LNG

Size: 10-30 mtpa

Partners: ExxonMobil,

Esso, Imperial Oil

Capex: NA


agreement

Triton LNG

Size: 2.3 mtpa

Partners: Atlas Gas, Idemitsu Kosan

Co.ltd

Capex: NA

Start date: TBD Offtake Agreement: No agreement

North American LNG Projects and Outlook - Quest Events · 2015-11-06 · Sabine Pass Trains 5‐6...

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Transcript of North American LNG Projects and Outlook - Quest Events · 2015-11-06 · Sabine Pass Trains 5‐6...