Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005.
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Transcript of Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005.
Norges Bank
1
Executive Board meeting11 August 2005
Norges Bank
2
Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
World NorthAmerica
WesternEurope
Japan Asiaexcl.
Japan 1)
EasternEurope
LatinAmerica
Forecasts March Forecasts JuneForecasts July
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
World NorthAmerica
WesternEurope
Japan Asiaexcl.
Japan 1)
EasternEurope
LatinAmerica
Forecasts March Forecasts JuneForecasts July
Source: Consensus Forecasts
2005 2006
1) China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines
Norges Bank
3Source: EcoWin\ Eurostat
Quarterly change in US GDPAnnualised contribution to growth in volume.
Per cent. Seasonally adjusted
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Private consumption Private investment
Inventories Net exports
Public consumption and investment GDP
Norges Bank
4
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Source: EcoWin / National statistics
CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area, and Japan
Percentage change on same month previous year
US
Euro area
Japan
UK Germany
Norges Bank
5
Consumer prices in the Nordic countriesPercentage change on same month previous year
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2002 2003 2004 2005
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Source: EcoWin / National statistics
Norway (CPI-ATE)
Sweden(UND1X)
Denmark*Sweden
(UND1X excl. energy)
* CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
Finland
Norges Bank
6
Developments in 10-year government bond yields
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Germany
Norway
US
IR
China
London:
Source: EcoWin / National statistics
Norges Bank
7
Movements in stock exchange sub-indices. Total return, indexed. 3 Jan 2005 = 100
80
100
120
140
160
jan mar mai jul
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan Mar May Jul
Source: EcoWin1) Calculated as the average of the IT and telecom indices2) Estimated as the average of the industrials and materials indices
Norway World
ICT1)
Financials
Industrials 2)
Energy
ICT1)
FinancialsIndustrials
Energy
Norges Bank
8
Interest rate expectations for the US, the euro area, the UK and Sweden
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jun 03 Dec 03 Jun 04 Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06 Dec 06
0
1
2
3
4
5
Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
US
Euro area
9 August
28 June
Sweden
UK
Norges Bank
9
Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices Daily figures, USD per barrel. Jan 2002 – Aug 2005
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
10
20
30
40
50
60
708 August
Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank
24 June (IR 2/05)
Norges Bank
10
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Difference between oil price for delivery next month and 6-7 years ahead
USD per barrel of light crude. Daily figures. Jan 2004 – Aug 2005
2005
2004
Sources: EcoWin/ NYMEX
Norges Bank
11
Oil production in NorwayMillion barrels per day. Monthly figures, Jan 2000 – Jun 2005
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
Projection from the Norwegian Petroleum
Directorate
Production
Norges Bank
12
CPI-ATETotal and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 2/05 (broken
line).12-month rise. Per cent
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Dec 03 Apr 04 Aug 04 Dec 04 Apr 05 Aug 05
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7)
1) Norges Bank's projections
Imported consumer goods (0.3)
CPI-ATE
Norges Bank
13
Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI and in External Trade Statistics, and in I-44
4-quarter change. Per cent. 98 Q1– 05 Q2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1) Norges Bank's projections: Clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture, food and beverages2) Excluding audiovisual equipment and cars
I-44
Imported consumer goodsin External Trade Statistics1)
Imported consumer goods in the CPI2)
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
14
2.26
2.27
2.28
2.29
2.30
2.31
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
76
77
78
79
80
81
Number employed in millions and average working hours as a percentage of a normal working week
(37.5 hours). Seasonally adjusted
Source: Statistics Norway
Employed (left-hand scale)
Average working hours as a percentage of a normal working week
(right-hand scale)
Norges Bank
15
House prices Percentage change on same month previous year
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)
Norges Bank
16
Business tendency surveyBusiness climate index
Seasonally differentiated diffusion index
Source: Statistics Norway
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Norges Bank
17
Total debt non-fin. enterprises mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt distributed between households
and non-financial enterprises (C2).12-month change. Per cent
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Households (C2)
Non-financial enterprises (C2)
Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3)
Norges Bank
18
3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)
A fall in value denotes a depreciating currency. Daily figures
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
85
88
91
94
97
100
103
Sources: Norges Bank and Bloomberg
I-44 (right-hand scale)
Weighted 3-month interest rate differential
(left-hand scale)
8 August 2005
28 June 2005
Norges Bank
19
Projected CPI-ATE and the output gap in the baseline scenario. Quarterly figures. Per cent. 04 Q1 – 08 Q4
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE
Output gap