Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2004.
22
Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2004
-
Upload
loraine-chase -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2004.
Norges Bank
1
Executive Board meeting11 August 2004
Norges Bank
2
Interest and exchange rate assumptions and projections for the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) and the output gap in Inflation Report 2/04. Per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-2
-1
0
1
2
3
CPI-ATE
Output gap
85
90
95
100
105
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
Money market rate (right-hand scale)
Source: Norges Bank
Krone exchange rate, I-44 (left-hand scale)
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
3
GDP in the US, the euro area, the UK, Sweden and Japan. Change on same quarter previous year. Per cent. 2001 Q1 - 2004 Q2
-4
-2
1
3
5
2001 2002 2003 2004
-4
-2
1
3
5
Japan
Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, Office of National Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat, Bureau of Economic Analysis (US) and Statistics Sweden
US
Euro area
UK
Sweden
Norges Bank
4
Employment1) in the USChange on previous month in thousands. Seasonally adjusted. Jan 03 – Jul 04
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Jan 03 Apr 03 Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Source: EcoWin
1) Nonfarm payroll
Norges Bank
5
ISM Non-Manufacturing Indices1) Monthly figures. Diffusion index2). Jan 00 – Jul 04
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
40
50
60
70
Source: EcoWin/National statistics
Employment component
Total
1) The index reflects the business sector's perception of the situation this month compared with previous month2) Values of over 50 indicate an increase. Values of less than 50 indicate a decline
Norges Bank
6
Core CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area and the UK. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 - Jun 04
0
1
2
3
4
2001 2002 2003 2004
0
1
2
3
4
Source: EcoWin/National statistics
UK
US
Euro area
Norges Bank
7
Consumer prices in the Nordic countries.
12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 02 – Jun/Jul 04
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan 02 May 02 Sep 02 Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Sources: EcoWin/SN, Statistics Sweden, EUR-OP/Eurostat and Statistics Denmark
Norway(CPI-ATE)
Sweden(UND1X)
Finland(HICP)
Denmark(HICP)
UND1X excl. energy
Norges Bank
8
Oil price Brent BlendUSD per barrel. Daily figures. Jan 02 - Jun 07
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200710
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank
Futures prices 4 March (IR 1/04)
Futures prices 9 August
Futures prices 24 June (IR 2/04)
Norges Bank
9
Spot and futures prices (6 – 7 years) for oil in the US. Quarterly figures. USD per barrel. 1991 Q1 - 2004 Q31)
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Source: EcoWin
Spot price
Futures price
1) Figures for 2004 Q3 are the average for the period 1 Jul – 9 Aug
Norges Bank
10
Effect of a 10-dollar higher oil price on GDP growth and consumer prices1)
GDP CPI
2004 2005 2004 2005
US -0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.6
Japan -0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.3
Euro area -0.5 -0.5 0.5 0.6
OECD -0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.6
China -0.8 0.8
1) Percentage deviation from baseline scenario with unchanged oil price of USD 25
Source: IEA
Norges Bank
11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Aug 04 Dec 04 Apr 05 Aug 05 Dec 05 Apr 06 Aug 06 Dec 06
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Expected change in key rates according to the swap market. Aug 04 – Dec 06
Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
US
Euro area
Norway
9 August
30 June
Norges Bank
12
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
CPI-ATE 12-month rise. Per cent. Jul 03 – Jul 04. Projections from Inflation Report 2/04 for Jun 04 – Dec 04 (broken line)
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
Imported consumer goods
CPI-ATE
Norges Bank
13
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan 03 Apr 03 Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04
80
85
90
95
100
105
Developments in the krone exchange rate1) (I-44). Daily figures 1 Jan 03 – 10 Aug 04
1) A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
I-44 AssumptionIR 2/04
Norges Bank
14
118
121
124
127
130
133
136
139
142
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
118
121
124
127
130
133
136
139
142
Index of commodity consumption 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume. Jan 02 – Jun 04
2003
2004
Sources: Statistics Norway
2002
Norges Bank
15
Exports and imports of traditional goodsSeasonally adjusted volume indices. 1988 = 100. 2000 Q1 – 2004 Q2
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
Imports
Exports
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
16
Imports of traditional goods Seasonally adjusted volume indices. 2000 Q1 = 100.
2000 Q1 – 2004 Q2
70
90
110
130
150
170
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
70
90
110
130
150
170
Fuels, electricity
Source: Statistics Norway
Commodities
Food
Norges Bank
17
Imports of traditional goodsSeasonally adjusted volume indices. 2000 Q1 = 100.
2000 Q1 - 2004 Q2
70
90
110
130
150
170
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
70
90
110
130
150
170
Source: Statistics Norway
Processed goodsMachinery and means of transport
Chemical products
Norges Bank
18
Business sentiment indicator for manufacturingSeasonally adjusted diffusion index. 97 Q1 – 04 Q2
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
19
Housing starts (number per month) and other building starts (1000 m2 per month). Trend. Jan 00 - May 04
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Housing starts (left-hand scale)
Other building starts, 1000 m2 (right-hand scale)
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
20
House pricesNEF/ECON (Jan 98 – Jul 04) and SN (98 Q1 – 04 Q2). Percentage rise on same period previous year
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sources: SN, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms
SN
NEF
Norges Bank
21
Total debt mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt distributed between households and non-financial enterprises (C2). 12-month rise. Jan 97 - Jun 04
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Credit to non-financial enterprises (C2)
Source: Norges Bank
Credit to households (C2)
Total debt mainland Norway (C3)
Norges Bank
22
2240
2250
2260
2270
2280
2290
2300
2310
2320
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2240
2250
2260
2270
2280
2290
2300
2310
2320
Employment (LFS)Seasonally adjusted. In 1000s
2002
2003
Sources: Statistics Norway
2004
