Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives · Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Skytte, Klaus...
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Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives
Skytte, Klaus
Publication date:2015
Link back to DTU Orbit
Citation (APA):Skytte, K. (2015). Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives [Sound/Visual production (digital)]. Launch seminarfor IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2015, Copenhagen, Denmark, 01/06/2015
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Klaus Skytte Head of Energy Economics and Regulation System Analysis Division DTU Management Engineering Technical University of Denmark [email protected], http://www.sys.man.dtu.dk/
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Agenda • NETP 2013 - Pathways to a Carbon Neutral Energy Future
• Challenges • NETP 2016 - preliminary work and work plan
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ETP vs NETP and Project participants
from ETP to NETP: ETP and WEO underpin international energy policy dialogue. But the Nordics were not visible, part of aggregated OECD europe. NETP combines the global comparibility of the IEA’s assumptions with detailed analysis and applicability for the Nordic energy systems.
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Global vs Nordic energy-related CO2 emissions
Carbon-neutral scenario (CNS): 85% reduction of (energy- and process related) CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to 1990
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Nordic electricity system 30 years ahead in terms of CO2 intensity
Nordic CO2 emissions from electricity and heat generation
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Nordic electricity generation in the Carbon-Neutral Scenario
63% RES-E 83% CO2 free
72% RES-E 97% CO2 free
78% RES-E 98% CO2 free
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Nordic transport: CO2 emissions & energy use
EV share of total Nordic car sales
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Buildings: Energy efficiency improvements in the Carbon-Neutral Scenario
35% drop in residential energy use per m2
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CCS utilisation in industry in 2050
50%
30% of iron & steel, chemical plants
of cement plants
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Key challenges
Energy Efficiency CCS
Infrastructure Biomass Supply
Electricity system integration
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What’s new in NETP 2016?
Narrower scope with more detail Stronger analytical role for Nordic Institutions
Clearer policy guidance
A carbon neutral scenario is possible but challenging:
NETP2013 showed that CNS is possible to achieve; NETP2016 will explain how it can be done.
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NETP2016 has three main elements
Tight link to ETP2016 No 2DS for Nordic region
Nordic
scenarios
Electricity System
Integration
Urban Energy
Systems
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NETP 2016: Linkage of ETP model with in-depth analyses
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Balmorel model • Power and district heating • Programmed in GAMS • Least cost optimisation based on framework conditions Optimises • Dispatch of power plants • Investments
• Generation capacity • Transmission capacity • Storage
Geographical scope • Nordics and Baltic sea region
+ third countries Analyses How to integrate RES efficiently in the Nordic Power System • Cost efficiently • Securing supply • Price effects / distribution of cost and benefits • Urban solutions
Modelling tool
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Research Frame Integration Options for integration
• Flexible generation • District heating, heat pumps • Bio-fuel, hydrogen production (electricity, surplus heat) • Demand response (Industry, individual consumers, EV smart charging) • Storage (pumped hydro, heat, H2, gas) • inter-connecters
Analysing integration options
• Quantitative analyses / Model runs Market design & Policies (short and long term policies)
• Adequate incentives • Correlated markets (electricity, green certificates, CO2-quotas, etc.) • Harmonised or coherent but different national policies? • How to secure investments
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Example: Quantitative analysis Value of inter-connectors in the Nordic countries
• CNS with/without planned expansion • "Optimal" expansion
Sensitivity • nuclear share • biomass constraint • Industry/CCS development
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Example:Electricity prices
Year: 2030 Scenario: ModRE_ModGrid
Electricity flow (TWh) 100 50 10 <1
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Example: Socioeconomic benefit by country of RE subsidy
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Summing up
NETP2013 showed that CNS is possible to achieve but challenging;
NETP2016 will explain how it can be done. Nordic
scenarios
Electricity System
Integration
Urban Energy
Systems
The Nordic power market is well functioning despite a few technical challenges
Ground pillar for designs of power markets worldwide.
NETP will give the Nordic countries the opportunity to once more take the lead by showing how to facilitate a sustainable green transition
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NETP 2016 workplan
June 2015: preliminary study (draft results and chapter outline)
August/September 2015 - final input from urban & integration
study Preliminary results December 2015, External review process January 2016, Launch of report May 2016
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xx
www.nordicetp.org
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Thank you for your interest
Klaus Skytte Head of Energy Economics and Regulation System Analysis Division DTU Management Engineering Technical University of Denmark [email protected], http://www.sys.man.dtu.dk/
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Appendix
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Nordic total primary energy supply
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Historical & projected wind generation
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Historical & projected wind generation
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Annual new capacity additions in the Carbon-Neutral Scenario
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Nordic energy use in transport
25% bio, el, H2 80% bio, el, H2 4% bio, el
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Nordic CO2 emissions from residential buildings
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2050 energy use in transport
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EV share of total Nordic car sales
30%
in 2030
90%
in 2050
70-80% RE based
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NETP 2016: Scenarios
• Carbon-neutral scenario (CNS): 85% reduction of (energy- and process related) CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to 1990
• Carbon-neutral scenario (CNS) as central scenario with rest of the world following a 2 degree pathway (= global 2DS for ETP 2016)
• No 2DS for Nordic region
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System integration
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Example: Economic and climate effects of increased integration of the Nordic and German electricity systems
Hourly modelling: Ex. Germany