Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos,...
Transcript of Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos,...
![Page 1: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and
a Liquidity Stress Test Application on Turkish Banking System
VIII Annual Seminar on Risk, Financial Stability and Banking, Sao Paulo
August 2013
Kurmaş Akdoğan, Turalay Kenç and Burcu Deniz Yıldırım
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
![Page 2: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• capital flows to emerging markets
total credits change in total credits / GDP
(q-o-q change, 4-quarters moving average, indexed as 2008Q3=1)
2
Note: Advanced countries include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Malta, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, UK and USA. Emerging markets include Brazil, Chile, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. Source: Central banks and/or government statistical agencies
![Page 3: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
source of funding?
• banks play an active role in the amplification of financial shocks (Shin, 2011)
• procyclicality
–booms and busts
– credit growth exceeds deposit growth
– alternative sources of funding!
• wholesale funding
• foreign borrowing
• interbank borrowing
3
![Page 4: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
classification of liabilities
• core liabilities (e.g. household deposits)
• reliable
• relatively cheaper
• move with the aggregate wealth of the household
• non-core liabilities (e.g. borrowing from other banks)
• sensitive to market conditions
• relatively more expensive
• procyclical
• short-term nature 4
![Page 5: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
core and non-core liabilities
5
Core Liabilities Intermediate Noncore Liabilities
Households Non-financial Corp’s. Financial Institutions
Short
Term
Demand deposits Demand deposits Demand deposits
Short-term deposits
(<1 month)
Short-term deposits
(<3 months)
Funds from repo transactions
Short-term payables to banks
Medium
Term
Medium-term deposits
(1 month-1 year) Medium and long-term
deposits
Medium and long-term deposits
Medium and long-term payables to
banks
Long
Term
Long-term deposits Securities issued
(>1 year) Other borrowings from banks
![Page 6: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
non-core liabilities: US non-core liabilities and constituents as a fraction of M2
Source: FED NY and Board of Governors
• a tax of 15 b.p. on non-core liabilities is proposed by Obama gov’t.
• this works as a tool for macro-prudential regulation as well! (Shin, 2010)
6
![Page 7: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
non-core liabilities: Korea non-core liabilities and constituents as a fraction of M2
Source: Bank of Korea
7
![Page 8: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
non-core liabilities: Turkey
Source: CBRT 8
non-core liabilities and constituents as a fraction of M2
![Page 9: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Turkey: decomposition of non-core liabilities
9
![Page 10: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
non-core liabilities and total credit (change, 3-months average, adjusted for the exchange rate, millions of TL)
10
Source: CBRT and BRSA.
![Page 11: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
non-core liabilities and cost of credit left axis : noncore liabilities, change, 3-months average, adj. for the exchange rate, millions of TL
right axis: TL business loan rate-TL deposit rate, per cent
11
Source: CBRT
![Page 12: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
liquidity stress test
• liquidity and/or solvency
• contagion
• funding liquidity vs. market liquidity
• Basel III
– liquidity coverage ratio (LCR)
– net stable funding ratio (NSFR)
• BRSA
– liquidity requirement ratio (LRR)
12
![Page 13: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
funding liquidity measures
13
• 𝐿𝐶𝑅 =𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑙𝑖𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑑 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑛𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 (30 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠)
• NSFR=𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔
• 𝐿𝑅𝑅 =𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠+𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠 (30 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠)
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠 (30 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠)
![Page 14: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
simulations
• haircut ratios and run-off rates
• cash inflows and outflows
• BRSA’s liquidity template
• RAS algorithm
14
E =
0 … 𝑒1𝑗 … 𝑒1𝑁
⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮𝑒𝑖1 ⋯ 0 ⋯ 𝑒𝑖𝑁
⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮𝑒𝑁1 … 𝑒𝑁𝑗 ⋯ 0
![Page 15: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
actual exposures
15
![Page 16: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
a more connected and more concentrated structure
Gai et al. (2011) , Nier et al. (2008)
![Page 17: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
complete structure (more connected but less concentrated
17
![Page 18: Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and ... · VIII Seminário sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária do Banco Central do Brasil Created Date:](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022011806/5be5516009d3f2c44d8bdac1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
conclusions
• non-core liabilities
– a good indicator of systemic risk
–procyclical
• robust funding conditions for the Turkish
banking sector
18