Non-communicable diseases A global overview David Leon.
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Non-communicable diseasesNon-communicable diseasesA global overviewA global overview
David Leon
2
OutlineOutline
• Definition • Non-communicable disease mortality
worldwide• The Epidemiological Transition• Global Burden of Disease Study• Major risk factors
– Blood pressure– Cholesterol– Smoking
• Infection and non-communicable diseases
3
What are non-What are non-communicable diseases?communicable diseases?
4
Classifying deaths and diseasesClassifying deaths and diseases(WHO)(WHO)
• Communicable diseases [Group I]– Those where death is directly due to the
action of a communicable agent
• Non-communicable diseases – Diseases [Group II]
• Cancer, diseases of various organ systems (eg respiratory, cardiovascular etc.), diabetes, mental health etc.
– External causes (injuries, poisonings and violence) [Group III]
5
Importance of non-Importance of non-communicable diseases communicable diseases
mortalitymortality
6
A global problemA global problem
• In 2004 there were 59 million deaths world-wide
• Non-communicable diseases accounted for 60% of these deaths and injuries and violence 10%.
• By 2020 it is estimated that non-communicable disease will account for 73% of all deaths
GBD 2004 Update, 2008
7
The epidemiologic transitionThe epidemiologic transition(Omran, 1971)(Omran, 1971)
Change in the balance of disease in a population
from
communicable diseases
to
non-communicable disease
8
Decline in proportion of total Decline in proportion of total mortality due to infectious diseases mortality due to infectious diseases
England & Wales, 1911-94, by ageEngland & Wales, 1911-94, by age
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 19910
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991
MalesMales FemalesFemales
1-141-14
25-4425-44
45-6445-64
65-7465-74
9
Different countries at different Different countries at different stages of the epidemiological stages of the epidemiological
transitiontransition
10
Non-communicable diseases as % of all Non-communicable diseases as % of all deaths by global region deaths by global region
(all ages(all ages))
WORLDWIDE 59%
N.America; W Europe 88%
China, W Pacific, + some SE Asia 75%
Latin America + Caribbean 67%
S E Asia including India 51%
Sub-Saharan Africa 21%
11
UrbanisationUrbanisation
12http://www.indiaimages.com/street/street_life2_large.jpg
13
UrbanisationUrbanisation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Urb
an p
op
ula
tio
n a
s %
of
tota
l
North AmericaLatin America & Caribbean
Europe
Oceania
Asia
Africa
WORLD
20
07
14
Drivers of the epidemiological Drivers of the epidemiological transition in low and middle transition in low and middle
income countriesincome countries
• Population ageing
• Major socio-economic changes (especially urbanisation)– changes in risk factors such as diet, physical
activity, smoking etc.
15
Global Burden of Disease Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study(GBD) Study
16
GBD 2001 mortality estimatesGBD 2001 mortality estimates
• 107 countries had collected “useable” information on cause of death from registration systems
• 55 countries (42 in sub Saharan Africa) no information on adult mortality
• Estimates based on many assumptions and extrapolations
17
Global Burden of Disease StudyGlobal Burden of Disease Study• First GBD study started in 1992 by World
Bank.• Second GBD study (in collaboration with
WHO) conducted 2001• Extensive synthesis of all available data to
give set of mortality estimates by age, sex, region and cause worldwide – for the first time
• 2001 GBD study covers 135 causes of death, 17 sub-regions, based on aggregation of country-level information
Global Burden of DiseaseGlobal Burden of Disease2004 Update 2004 Update (published 2008)(published 2008)
http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/
GBD_report_2004update_full.pdf
18
Distribution of deaths in the world Distribution of deaths in the world by sex, 2004by sex, 2004
19
GBD report 2004 update, 2008
Mortality rates among men and women aged 15–Mortality rates among men and women aged 15–59 years, region and cause-of-death group, 200459 years, region and cause-of-death group, 2004
20
GBD report 2004 update, 2008
Projected global deaths for selected Projected global deaths for selected causes, 2004–2030causes, 2004–2030
21
GBD report 2004 update, 2008
Effect of key risk factors on Effect of key risk factors on mortalitymortality
22
Combining data …Combining data …
Prospective studies collaboration
23
Prospective Studies Prospective Studies Collaboration Collaboration
• Established chiefly to investigate associations of blood pressure and cholesterol with cause-specific mortality
• Individual data on 900 000 participants without any previous history of vascular disease from 61 prospective cohort studies
• 55 000 vascular deaths (34 000 ischaemic heart disease [IHD], 12 000 stroke, 10 000 other)
Blood pressure and Blood pressure and cardiovascular mortalitycardiovascular mortality
25
December 0226
Cardiovascular mortality: Age-specific effects for 20 mmHg lower usual SBP
55 345 deaths at ages 40-89Numberdeaths
414 0·36 (0·32-0·40)
1372 0·38 (0·35-0·40)
2939 0·43 (0·41-0·45)
4327 0·50 (0·48-0·52)
2636 0·67 (0·63-0·71)
1322 0·49 (0·45-0·53)
5594 0·50 (0·49-0·52)
10 450 0·54 (0·53-0·55)
10 852 0·60 (0·58-0·61)
5649 0·67 (0·64-0·70)
Stroke
IHD
Othervascular
386 0·43 (0·38-0·48)
1377 0·50 (0·47-0·54)
2549 0·53 (0·51-0·56)
3227 0·64 (0·61-0·67)
Age
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89 2251 0·70 (0·65-0·75)
0·25 0·35 0·5 0·7 1·0
Relative risk (& 95% CI) for20 mmHg lower usual systolic BP
Cholesterol and Cholesterol and cardiovascular mortalitycardiovascular mortality
27
80-89
70-79
60-69
50-59
40-49
Age atrisk
Usual total cholesterol (mmol/L)
4·0 5·0 6·0 7·0 8·00·5
1
2
4
8
16
32
64
128
256H
azar
d r
atio
( 95
% C
I)
Ischaemic Heart Disease mortality (33 744 deaths) and total cholesterol
Different for strokeDifferent for stroke
29
Usual total cholesterol (mmol/L)4·0 5·0 6·0 7·0 8·0
1
2
4
8
16
32
64
80-89
70-79
60-69
40-59
Age
Haz
ard
rat
io(&
95%
CI)
Stroke mortality (11 663 deaths) and total cholesterol by ageStroke mortality (11 663 deaths) and total cholesterol by age
31
SmokingSmoking
32
% of deaths aged 35-69 years % of deaths aged 35-69 years attributable to smoking in 2000attributable to smoking in 2000
Men Women
Belarus 33% 0%
Russia 33% 3%
Ukraine 32% 3%
Central Asia (8) 23% 4%
Estonia 31% 3%
Latvia 30% 2%
Lithuania 29% 0%
United Kingdom 25% 21%
Germany 29% 11%
Source : http://www.deathsfromsmoking.net/
33
Risk of myocardial infarction increases with Risk of myocardial infarction increases with every single cigarette smoked per dayevery single cigarette smoked per day
Number of cigarettes smoked per day
Odd
s R
atio
of
Myo
card
ial I
nfar
ctio
n
Never 1-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 11-12 13-14 15-16 17-18 19-20 >=21
Source : K. K. Teo et al Tobacco use and risk of myocardial infarction in 52 countries in the INTERHEART studyLancet 368 (9536):647-658, 2006.
INTERHEART study 52 countries
12 461 cases, 14 637 controls
34
Smoking causes more deaths from Smoking causes more deaths from cardiovascular disease than cancercardiovascular disease than cancer
Deaths attributed to smoking
among men (all ages) in Russia, 2000
All cancers = 77,000
Cardiovascular disease = 148,000
Source : http://www.deathsfromsmoking.net/
35
Things are getting worse Things are getting worse not better not better
36
Smoking in men in Russia Smoking in men in Russia is not decliningis not declining
Rural
Urban
St Petersburgh/Moscow
Source : Perlman et al Tob.Control 16 (5):299-305, 2007
Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey
37
Smoking in women in Russia Smoking in women in Russia is increasingis increasing
Rural
Urban
St Petersburgh/Moscow
Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey
Source : Perlman et al Tob.Control 16 (5):299-305, 2007
Giving up smoking reduces riskGiving up smoking reduces risk
38
39
Some non-communicable Some non-communicable diseases have infectious diseases have infectious
etiologyetiology
40
Trends in stomach cancer mortalityTrends in stomach cancer mortality
41Source : WHO HFA database
Age
sta
ndar
dise
d m
orta
lity
per
100,
000
42
Helicobacter pylori bacterium - a causal factor for stomach cancer
43
Marshall BJ,.Warren JR. Unidentified curved bacilli in the stomach of patients with gastritis and peptic ulceration. Lancet 1984;1:1311-5.
Marshall BJ, Armstrong JA, McGechie DB, Glancy RJ. Attempt to fulfil Koch's postulates for pyloric Campylobacter. Med.J.Aust. 1985;142:436-9.
The The Helicobacter pyloriHelicobacter pylori story …... story …...
SummarySummary
• Non-communicable diseases are now the most common cause of death world wide
• Increasing rates in low and middle income countries because of change in lifestyles (urbanisation)
• Key risk factors have very large effects• Interventions are effective and can reduce
burden• The need to combine results and have large
studies44