Nominations and Elections

ObjectivesObjectives• Analyze the factors that contributed to the

development of U.S. elections.• Understand how elections make officials accountable

to citizens.• Describe each phase of the presidential campaign and

the strategies that determine candidates’ success.• Examine the congressional election process and

understand what makes it so difficult to unseat incumbent members.

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ObjectivesObjectives• Identify the different types of electoral systems, the

characteristics of the SMDP system, and the effects of this system on U.S. parties and voting.• Analyze how the U.S. electoral affects the

representation of women and minorities in government.• Understand why it is difficult to regulate campaign

expenditures.

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The Development of Elections in the United States

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• Elections should make government responsive to the people’s wishes. • This is not always the case.

• U.S. elections have changed over time.• Constitutional design• Limited direct democracy: only House• Voting requirements: property• Bit by bit the rules changed• Senate directly elected (1913)• Fifteenth Amendment (1870)• Nineteenth Amendment (1920)• Twenty-Sixth Amendment (1971)

The Development of Elections in the United States

• Historically, U.S. has been a leader in extending voting rights.• One of first democracies in world; fourteenth

country to grant women the right to vote.• Do we have universal suffrage? Not quite.• Felons: 48 states bar incarcerated prisoners from

voting (ME and VT exceptions); sometimes permanently.

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The Development of Elections in the United States• Election process has evolved over time.• The government, not the parties, now print official ballots.• Ballots include the names of candidates from all parties.• Ballots are distributed only at polling places.• Ballots are cast secretly, not openly.• Together these changes are referred to as the Australian ballot

• Continued evolution• Concern over varied voting procedures in states during 2000 election• Clearer rules regarding voter registration• Help America Vote Act (2012): update election equipment• Legislation focused on making sure those not entitled to vote could not• Photo identification at polls; longer residency requirements to

eliminate fraud• Some oppose: argument that it disenfranchise primarily Democratic-

leaning groups

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Elections as Tools for AccountabilityElections as Tools for Accountability• Accountability: ability of voters to impose

consequences on officials for their actions; including removal from office.

• U.S. has three types of elections:• Primary elections: competition among

those who wish to be chosen by a party to appear on the general election ballot

• General elections: voters make their final choices for public officials in this election.

• Recall elections: offered in some states; citizens may petition to have state officials removed from office before they have completed their term. 8

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The Presidential Campaign• First step toward the presidency is winning the party

nomination.• Must accrue a majority of party delegates.• Delegates – individuals chosen by procedures

determined by the state.• Procedures: primaries and caucuses with state

convention• Other delegate types: superdelegates (Democratic Party)

and unpledged delegates (Republican Party) – these are elected officials and members of the parties’ National Committees. 9

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PrimariesPrimaries

• Used by a majority of states to choose party national convention delegates since 1972.• Voters are actually voting on list of delegates submitted by the candidate;

often do not see the names of delegates but rather the name of the candidate on their ballot.

• Primaries are also used for most other elections as well: congressional and local offices.• Open primary: All voters, including independents, may vote in

whatever party primary they choose, regardless of party registration.• Closed primary: Voters register and designate their party

affiliation or independence. Those affiliated with a party may vote in that party’s primary. Others may not.

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Two Key Effects of Primaries

• Crossover voting: voting in primary other than the one affiliated with your party.• Usually occurs when there is a more important choice

taking place in the other party. Voting to hurt the other party is not supported by evidence.

• Independents may vote and perhaps play a major role in the election• Can impact who wins

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CaucusesCaucuses

• Caucuses come in waves: • Precinct level• County or congressional district level• State convention• Choose which delegates will go to the national convention

• Legislatures of caucus states determine when they will be held.• Iowa, Minnesota, and Nevada utilize them.• Focus on grassroots conversations among neighbors and active

party supporters. • Takes much more time to participate in than primaries require.• Usually have lower turnouts than primaries. 13

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The Road to Nomination

• Four Factors can help candidates become known to voters:1. Prior fame2. Media coverage3. Volunteers 4. Money for advertising

• Early contests: IA and NH• Critical to nomination

• Frontloading: the movement of state’s primary or caucuses to the earliest data that the party’s rules permit.

• Super Tuesday: bundling of the primaries/caucuses• When a number of states hold their contents on the same day; large number

of delegates up for grabs.

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The National ConventionThe National Convention

• Role has changed over last 50 years: from true decision-making body to rubber stamping the primary process.• 1972 point of change: • Result of a turbulent Democratic nominating convention in

1968• Changes in the process and rules led to the use of primaries

to choose delegates and locked them into support for the first ballot of the national nominating convention.

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The National ConventionThe National Convention

•Today conventions are made-for-TV affairs.• Platform development still important.• Choice for Vice President unveiled.•Could have a deadlock in delegates (no

one with majority) before convention.

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How Representative Are Primaries and Caucuses?How Representative Are Primaries and Caucuses?

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• Given:• Participation much lower than in

general election.• Activists hold stronger, more ideological

views than the general electorate.• So does this mean that the primaries and

caucuses are responsible for more ideologically extreme candidates?

• Answer: No. They draw broadly enough from party voters that the results are generally similar to the full base of supporters’ preferences, but not the full electorate.

• Partisan electorate may be more ideological.

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Nominations in Other Countries

• U.S. system’s process: more spontaneous and unpredictable.• Political parties in other democracies are more tightly

organized; controlled nominations.• Looser selection system provides a wider range of

candidates.• Result: American leaders are different from leaders of most

other democracies.• Vary more; less experienced• May bring unusual backgrounds or perspectives to their

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The General ElectionThe General Election• The presidential general elections go into high gear after the

nominating conventions.• Pivot point: Candidates go from appealing to partisans to a

broader general electorate.• Convention bump• Debates

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Congressional Elections• Determine who will sit in the Senate and House of

Representatives.• In presidential election years, the party who wins the

presidency usually gains seats in the Senate and House as well, but more often than not, there is still divided government.• Midterm elections: usually bring minor changes to

Congress, but sometimes they can be dramatic as in 2010• Tea Party and Republican control of House

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Congressional Elections• Incumbency advantages• Control of news• Staff to support constituents• Ability to add “pork” legislation• Easier access to campaign contributions• Experience

• Open seats are more competitive• Gerrymandering• Drawing boundaries of congressional or legislative districts

with the deliberate intent to affect the outcomes of elections.• Difficult to hold members individually accountable for what

they do in office.• Focus on accountability for the parties• Contemporary trend: decline of split-ticket voting

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Electoral Systems and Their EffectsElectoral Systems and Their Effects

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• Electoral system: a set of rules used to determine, based on the outcome of an election, which individuals will hold office.• U.S. System: Winner-Take-All• Single-member-district, plurality system (SMDP)• An electoral system in which the country is divided into districts, each of which elects a single member to the Congress or parliament. Candidates required to have a plurality of vote to win.

• Impact of SMDP• Produces two-party systems• How does it do this?

• Reduces odds of smaller parties winning

• Most democracies, other than U.S. use proportional representation• Seats are allocated to parties in proportion to their shares of the vote

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The Electoral College and Presidential ElectionsThe Electoral College and Presidential Elections

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• Electoral College: system by which presidents are elected in the United States • Constitution: Indirect election of president; states choose

electors (equal to the number of House and Senate seats the state has) and the electors choose president.• Framers did not specify how electors were to be chosen by

state; they would eventually be by elections.• Today, when you cast your vote for a presidential candidate,

you are really voting for his or her slate of electors (chosen by the candidates).• In most states, the candidate who gets the most votes is the

winner of that state’s electoral college votes.

The Electoral College and Presidential Politics The Electoral College and Presidential Politics

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• The Electoral College affects the presidential election in four ways:1. Candidates with the most popular votes will not necessarily win the

election.• Situation is rare (1888 AND 2000); very close popular vote.

2. Candidates’ campaign strategies are affected.• Focus on close states

3. States with small populations have a slightly exaggerated impact on the outcome.

4. Many states do not legally require electors to vote as they had originally pledged to do before the election.

• What are some suggestions for reform:• Popular vote model• Congressional district model• Pledge electoral votes to whomever wins the national popular vote

Elections and RepresentationElections and RepresentationWomen

• Only 17 percent of the members of Congress are women.• Women are

underrepresented in almost all democracies.• Average is 19 percent.• Sweden & Rwanda: 46, and

56 percent, respectively• Rules make a difference• Party list in Italy: require 50%

women.

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Elections and RepresentationElections and RepresentationMinorities

• SMDP systems do not encourage minority representation.• Special device used in U.S.• Majority-minority districts• Drawbacks: tends to make

other districts less competitive if the minority tends to vote for one party more than the other

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Campaign Finance

• U.S. campaigns are very expensive.• “Permanent campaign”• U.S. Senators: $9K a day

to be competitive in next election.• Obligations to

contributors

• How does one limit the role of money in electoral politics?• First Amendment: Court

says limiting campaign expenditures = limiting free speech

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Regulating Campaign Finance for Parties and CandidatesRegulating Campaign Finance for Parties and Candidates

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• Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (2002)• Compliance and disclosure: FEC created in 1974 to monitor and enforce

compliance with campaign finance laws• Limits on contributions

• 2012: limits - $2500 contribution to any candidate (per election), $5000 to any PAC, $10,000 to any party committee, and $30,800 to national party committees.

• Individuals may not give over $117,000 in federal election contributions in a given year.

• Public financing for presidential candidates• 2012 limits: If candidate for president took matching public funds, he or she

would be limited to no more than $46 million in spending allowed for the primaries; accepting public funding for the general election would limit the candidate to $91.

• Candidates are less likely to accept these limits. Obama in 2008.

• “Stand by your ad”

Independent ExpendituresIndependent Expenditures

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• Campaign spending limits focus on political parties and candidates, but 527 committees have emerged as a loophole.• Advocacy groups that are allowed to advertise on political

issues and are not subject to regulation by the Federal Election Commission• Not formally a part of a campaign so not regulated by the

FEC• Use “issue advocacy” ad tactic; do not say explicitly vote for

or against a candidate. • They may take any size donation; not required to disclose• Spent a great deal of money; one third of all campaign

spending

Independent ExpendituresIndependent Expenditures

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• Citizens United decision• Court expanded the possibilities of independent expenditures• Hillary: The Movie – sued to have the film not show within 30 days of the

primary due to McCain Feingold – organizations could not broadcast “electioneering communications” close to election. Found in violation of the First Amendment.

• Corporations and unions could not be limited in their funding of independent political broadcasts during elections.

• Super PAC• FEC established an additional type of independent campaign

organization.• May raise unlimited amounts of money from corporations, unions, and

individuals, like 527s, they may NOT donate to candidates and they may coordinate with campaigns. But unlike 527s, they are allowed to support or attack candidates directly.

Independent Expenditures: Four aspects of Super PACSIndependent Expenditures: Four aspects of Super PACS

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