NOAA operational ocean modeling
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Transcript of NOAA operational ocean modeling
NOAA operational ocean modelingA joint NWS – NOS – IOOS enterprise
Ming Ji NOAA/NCEP/OPCFrank Aikman III NOAA/NOS/CSDLHendrik L. Tolman NOAA/NCEP/EMC
Background
2004 Science Advisory Board and NOAA response
• A three-level system
• Global and basin scale operational Backbone Capability at NCEP (partnership with Navy)
• On NOAA operational super computers
• Coastal Operational Ocean Backbone Capability at NOS, integrated with NCEP effort
• Transitioning to NOAA operational super computers
• Operational local modeling at IOOS Regional Associations
• RA Operational modeling to adhere to NOAA standards
History
Louis Uccellini and Ming Ji at previous MARACOOS meeting (Fall 2012)
Strategic Approach in Ocean Modeling
• Strategic alignment with Navy on Global Ocean model development
• Strategic alignment with NOS on coastal model development
• Strategic partnership with the IOOS community
• Linking backbone to local modeling for applications/services
• Standardization, realtime coastal/marine/biological data flow
• Community modeling and O2R
• Engage private sector through IOOS RAs for a broad range of local service delivery
From the whiteboard …
There are already many models in place, but particularly the interaction with the IOOS RAs still needs to be worked out in many details.
SAB level: I II IIIAtmosphere GFS
GEFSNAMSREF
HRRRWRF????
Ocean RTOFS (HYCOM)CFS (MOM4)
ROMSAdcirc
FVCOM…..
Many
Waves WAVEWATCH III(det. + ensemble)
WAVEWATCH IIISWAN
NWPS
Area: Global Regional Coastal/Local
System Current Q2FY14 Q1FY18
GEFS T254 (55 km) 0 to 8-d T574 SL (35 km) 0 to 16-d T1148 SL (17 km) 0 to 10-d
T190 (70 km) 8 to 16-d T574 SL (35km) 10 to16-dT574 SL (35km) 16 to 32-d (new request)
20 Members @ 42 Vertical Levels
20 Members @ 64 Vertical Levels
20 Members @ 64 Vertical Levels
Semi-LagrangianEnKF integrated with ETR for initial perturbationsFull stochastic physics
NEMS, coupled oceanMME (multi-model ensemble)Extended to week 3 & 4
Estimated compute
factor
120 nodes for 1-hour 2.5x – 300 nodes for 1-hour
Note: uniform resolution for this configuration is to take advantage of Semi-Lagrangian model (saving computation cost for SL if the resolution is higher).
10x – 3000 nodes for 1-hour
400 nodes for 1 hour (new item)
1. Need additional resource to support for full resolution out to 16 days (20%)
2. Need additional resource to support higher vertical resolution (L128 – 2x)
GEFS Evolution To 2018
System Current Q2FY14 Q1FY18NAEFS NCEP GEFS 21 members NCEP GEFS 21 members NCEP GEFS 21 members
CMC GEFS 21 members CMC GEFS 21 members CMC GEFS 21 members
FNMOC GEFS 20 members
FNMOC GEFS 21 members FNMOC GEFS 21 members
1. Exchange 90 variables
2. 1*1 degree globally3. Every 6 hrs, out to
16 days
1. Exchange ~100 variables2. Additional 0.5*0.5 degree
for selected variables, 3. Every 3 hours out to 8
days
1. Exchange 100+ variables2. Exchange 0.25*0.25 degree
for selected variables3. Coupling with ocean, and
extended to 32 days4. Additional every 6 hours
from 16 to 32 days
1. Bias correction2. Downscaling3. NAEFFS
probabilistic products
Expand more variables for1. Bias correction2. Downscaling3. NAEFFS probabilistic
products
More statistical post-processing for week 3 & 4 forecast
Estimated compute
factor
10 nodes for 1-hour
Time window – immediately follow GEFS finished
1.5x – 15 nodes for 1-hour 8x – 120 nodes for 1-hour
NAEFS Evolution To 2018
System Current Q2FY14 Q1 FY18
SREF 21 members @ 16 km 35 levelsEvery 6 hours to 84 hr
20 members @ 12 km 35 levelsEvery 6 hours to 84 hr
20 members @ 12 km 50/60 levels with nests at 3kmSome are 18-60 hr or 18-84 hr extensions of HRRRE members
NAM 12 km North America parent to 84 hrFixed nests CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR at 4/6/3/3 km run to 60 hrPlaceable FireWx nest 1.33/1.5 km to 36 hr
12 km North America parent to 84hrFixed nests CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR all run at 3 kmPlaceable/movable nest 1.5 km to 36 hr
ENSEMBLE of runs:12 km North America parent ENSEMBLE of 3 km runs CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR to Placeable/movable nest 1.5 km to 36 hr
Every 6 hours to 36/60/84 hours
Every 6 hours to 36/60/84 hours
Hourly to 18 hr with extensions for SREF & Every 6 hours control member extended to 36/60/84 hours for NAM
HRRR/HRRRE
3 km CONUS ENSEMBLE of 3 km runs ARW for CONUS & AlaskaNMMB for CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR & FireWx
Hourly to 15 hours Hourly to 18 hours
Mesoscale
System Current Q2FY14 Q1FY18
CFS 9 month forecast 9 month forecast 9 month forecast
Atmosphere: 100km, L64 Atmosphere: 100 km, L64 Atmosphere: 35 km, L128
Ocean: 0.5°, 40 levels Ocean: 0.5°, 40 levels Ocean: 0.25°, 60 levels
Waves: none Waves: none Waves 0.5°
4 members per day (120 per month)
4 members per day (120 per month)
4 members per day (120 per month)
ECMWF 7 month forecast 7 month forecast 7 month forecast
Atmosphere: 50 km, L91 Atmosphere: 50 km, L91 Atmosphere: 50 km, L91
Ocean: 1°, 40 levels Ocean: 1°, 40 levels Ocean: 1°, 40 levels
Waves: 0.5° Waves: 0.5° Waves: 0.5°
51 members per month (all run on first of month)
51 members per month (all run on first of month)
51 members per month (all run on first of month)
Seasonal Climate
NCEP
Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)
• Based on community HYCOM model.• Strong collaboration with Navy.
• Adopting existing 1/12° model from NRL (NOPP).• GFS forcing (including diurnal cycle).
• Timeline:• Operational 10/25/2011 with NRL/NAVOCEANO
(NCODA) initialization (daily feed from NAVO).• FY2014-15: full initialization at NCEP.
• Developing agreement with NRL on NCODA.
RTOFS
Presently five major efforts:• Eddy resolving ocean modeling.• Eddy resolving ocean initialization.
• Coupled modeling for hurricanes.
• Coupled modeling for weather – CFS / NEMS.
• Episodic tracers (with shelf life)
• All RTOFS models presently based on HYCOM• RTOFS represents line of products.
RTOFS-GlobalRTOFS-AtlanticOperational 2005
Operational 10/25/2011
RTOFS-HWRFLive testing
RTOFS-NEMSUnder development
RTOFS-ET-PacOperational 07/24/2012
RTOFS-Global
Subsystem Q2FY14 Q1FY18Global Extend forecast to 8 days, OSIP
output, improved coastal forcing. Add DA on 00z cycle.
Extend lead time, ice and wave coupling, improved DA (same resolution)
Estimated compute factor
2x 4x
Atlantic Re-initialize, go to 3km grid Improve physics and assimilation, resource neutral, possible low-resolution ensemble.
Estimated compute factor
1x of global 1.5x of global
East Pacific, West Pacific &
Alaska
New models, compatible with Atlantic
Estimated compute factor
3 times 1.5x of global
HWRF Up to 30% of coupled HWRF
NEMS Depending on GFS/CFS approaches
Tracers Will discontinue early 2014 Depending on disasters...
Estimated compute factor
0x 0.1x
RTOFS (HYCOM) Evolution To 2018
NCEP
Future RTOFS (2015-2018) Summary
Global model at 1/12 degree resolution Regional models for Arctic, North Atlantic, East Pacific and
possibly West Pacific at 3km nominal resolution (based on NCEP user requirements)
Intend to go to ensemble based systems by 2018 depending on computer resources (particularly for ice)
Full coupling (Atmos-Ocean-Wave-Ice) particularly in ice zones
System Current Q2FY14 Q1FY18Bay & Coastal
Ocean-Forecast Systems
GLOFS, CBOFS, TBOFS, DBOFS,
CREOFS, etc.
Expand from 13 to 17 OFS's (San Francisco, NE and NW Gulf of Mexico, Cook Inlet)
Expand from 17 to 22 OFS's (Gulf of Maine, Mississippi River, Huron/Erie, West Coast, East Coast)
Estimated compute
factor
2x 4x
ESTOFS Increase Atlantic nearshore resolution to 500 m and
increase number of ensemble members (from 5 to 10)
Increase Pacific nearshore resolution (to 500 m) and
number of ensemble members (5 to 10 members)
Estimated compute
factor
2 nodes 120 min 10x 2x
NOS Systems Evolution To 2018
IOOS
Partnership with IOOS at NWS & NOS
• Data standardization and management through IOOS:
• RTOFS models available in NetCDF on NOMADS
• This was a major change driven by IOOS requirements
• Critical Partner for real time coastal/marine/biological data flow
• Providing requirements for RTOFS
• E.g., resolution, accuracy, …
• NOS collaboration with the IOOS modeling community
• Develop, agree & adhere to community standards
• Includes frameworks, data flow, products
• Effectively leveraging Testbeds (e.g. IOOS COMT)
Summary
• The 3-level framework from SAB review
• Strategic partnerships are essential elements• Navy, NOS, IOOS community
• NOAA-IOOS RAs paradigm toward service delivery
• Issues/challenges for discussion• R2O-O2R: Connecting Backbone to local models
• Define operations
• How to run models (CONOPS)
• How to exchange data and information
• E.g., Standards
• Coordinate operations and service delivery• E.g., the Weather Enterprise
NOS
Operational Forecast Systems (OFS) for the Coastal and Estuarine Environment in NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS)
OUTLINEThe state of NOS’s Operational Forecast Systems
• Requirements and geographic coverage• CBOFS, NGOFS and ESTOFS examples • OFS products & dissemination
The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF)
• Objective: More efficient R&D, O&M
Challenges and Applications• Collaboration with the IOOS Ocean Modeling
Community • Coupled Model Systems
NOS
NOS Marine Modeling Requirements Develop a national network of operational hydrodynamic models
providing nowcasts and short-term (0 – 48 hr.) forecasts for:
Support of safe & efficient navigation Water levels for under-keel clearance Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability
Emergency response HAZMAT Search & Rescue Homeland Security
Environmentally sound management of the coastal zone Ecosystem applications Marine geospatial applications
Salinity
SST
Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS)CBOFS (2-D)
Operational 08/01 CBOFS (3-D) Operational 04/11
Currents Temp Salt
Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System (NGOFS)
NGOFS is the first NOS OFS to extend the model domain to US shelf waters to fill gaps between global/basin models and coastal/estuarine models.
NGOFS covers 6 NOS PORTS
• Computes surge with tides for forecasting and for coupling to WAVEWATCH III®
• Applies ADCIRC model– 254,565 nodes– Coastal resolution ≈ 3 km– Depth-averaged barotropic– 6-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr
forecast• Pacific model in development
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml
http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/
Atlantic Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS)
Graphics on CO-OPS Web Site Time Series Plots (24 hour nowcast and 48 forecast) of water
levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations
Contour and vector map plots and animation of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds
Model data sets on NOAA’s WOC and CO-OPS Thredds Server Station/point netCDF files (6-minute output): Time series at selected stations Gridded model output netCDF files (hourly output)
Model visualization via nowCOAST GIS-Based Web Mapping Portal (WMS)
Users value usefulness, accessibility, reliability Outputs used by USCG, NOS/OR&R, ASA, etc. in real-time Web products used daily by coastal managers, maritime navigation and
emergency response communities. Reliability and timely delivery of products are most important.
NOS Coastal Operational Forecast System Products
REAL-TIME DATA
INGESTQA/QC(COMF)
OPERATIONALMODELS
(NOAA’s HPC)
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE(water level, water temp, currents, & salinity)
PRODUCTS(web pages and digital pt. & gridded data)
FOR USERS
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov
QA/QC(CORMS) 24 x 7
NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF)
Individual Model
systems
Data Tank on WCOSS: • Atmospheric Forcing• Coastal Boundary Conditions• Riverine Fresh Water Inputs Products and archives
Linux Serverin CO-OPS
NOAA/NOS Coastal Modeling Challenges
Continued Collaboration with the IOOS Ocean Modeling Community• Develop, agree & adhere to community standards
• (e.g. frameworks; data flow; products)• Testbeds
• (e.g. the IOOS COMT)
Coupled Model Systems• Riverine-estuarine-regional/coastal-basin; • Hydrodynamic-wave; hydrodynamic-sediment transport• Physical-biogeochemical coupling (e.g. ecological; water quality; habitat)Forecast uncertainty estimation • Probabilistic approach/Ensemble averagingCoastal data assimilation techniques • HF Radar; coastal altimetry; IOOS data; etc.