NOAA, National Weather ServiceMiddle Atlantic River Forecast Center

Briefing

8:30am June 7, 2013

Key Messages

• Official river forecasts calling for river rises above action stage at several locations. Minor and moderate flooding forecast at isolated points.

• None of the MARFC points are in flood at this hour. • MARFC began 24 hour operations 6am Thursday June 6.

We will continue to be staffed 24 hours until the threat of flooding is over.

• Most of the rain has not fallen yet. Because of this, there is uncertainty in our river forecasts at this time. Watch for frequent river forecast updates through this event.

Timing of rain & flooding

• Rain from Andrea has already begun in the Mid-Atlantic region.

• Timing of any river flooding is today and through the weekend.

This is the latest forecast for the path of the center of Andrea. Remember, storm impacts, particularly heavy rains and flooding can and will occur hundredths of miles from the storm path.

Rain on the ground

• Heavy rain occurred over the Upper James River basin yesterday and in a ribbon from Washington DC northeast to NJ.

• Some specific 24 hour totals reports:

3.94” Lynchburg, VA –Campbell County3.68” Auburn, NY – Cayuga County3.32” Apple Orchard Mt, VA – Botetourt County3.25” Big Island, VA - Bedford County3.12” Craigsville, VA – Augusta County

Additional Rain

• This is the 72 hour total rainfall expected. This is the entire remainder of the event for Andrea.

• Heaviest amounts in excess of 3” are forecast for NJ and the mid & lower Delaware River Basin, the lower Potomac and the lower James River basins.

• On the following slide is a graphic showing the entire rainfall from Andrea across the U.S.

River Forecasts

• All river forecasts are being updated right now. New numbers should be posted at http://water.weather.gov in an hour or two.

• Many points are expected to rise above their action or caution stages. Minor & Moderate flooding is forecast at just a couple isolated locations.

Flood Outlook• The Flood Outlook looks at

the possibility for significant flooding. Although our official forecasts are only calling for isolated minor flooding, there is enough uncertainty that you should prepare for the possibility of significant flooding in this region today through Sunday.

• Headwaters and smaller streams are especially vulnerable to larger river rises.

MARFC Status

• MARFC began 24 hour operations 6am Thursday.

• MARFC is actively coordinating with our NWS Weather Forecast Offices and partners.

Remember

• MARFC graphics & info do not contain the entire flood threat. See info from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office for watches & warnings, flash flooding, storm surge, etc..

Flood Inundation Maps• Excellent resource to understand your

flood risk. Can be used to plan evacuation routes & travel.

• Available at http://water.weather.gov for these points:– Saddle River at Lodi, NJ – West Branch Susquehanna River at Jersey

Shore, PA– Delaware River at:

• Matamoras/Port Jervis• Belvidere• Easton• Frenchtown• New Hope/Lambertville• Riegelsville• Stockton• Trenton

Others are available at http://maps.srbc.net/simv/

Need more info?

• Contact your local NWS Weather Forecast Office– Binghamton, NY http://weather.gov/bgm– Blacksburg, VA http://weather.gov/rnk– Mt Holly, NJ http://weather.gov/phi– State College, PA http://weather.gov/ctp– New York City, NY http://weather.gov/okx– Sterling, VA http://weather.gov/lwx– Wakefield, VA http://weather.gov/akq

Find MARFC Online at:

• Homepage: http://weather.gov/marfc

• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.MARFC.gov

• Twitter @NWSMARFC

Next MARFC Briefing

The next MARFC briefing slide package will be sent around noon today.