NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)Biological and Conference Opinion on the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and State

Water Project

National Research Council Committee on Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the

California Bay-DeltaJanuary 25, 2010

2

Status of Species

ESU Status

Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon

Endangered (Jan 1994)

Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon

Threatened (Sep 1999)

Central Valley fall-run Chinook salmon

Candidate (Sep 1999)

Central Valley steelhead Threatened (Mar 1998)

Southern DPS green sturgeon

Threatened (Apr 2006)

Southern Resident killer whale

Endangered (Nov 2005)

3

Central Valley Salmon Population Over Time

4

Salmon Population Viability

ABUNDANCE

POP GROWTH RATE

DIVERSITY SPATIALSTRUCTURE

HABITAT CAPACITY AND DIVERSITY

FreshwaterEstuarineMarine

5

Central Valley Spring Chinook

ESU Structure

6

Central Valley SteelheadESU Structure

7

Viability Criteria for Populations

8

Viability Criteria for ESUs

At least two viable populations per diversity group

If possible, the populations should not have highly correlated risks of catastrophic disturbance

9

Current Status

of CV

Spring-

Run Chinoo

k salmon

10

Climate Change

11

Effects of Water Projects on Salmon

12

Effect of Habitat Modification

s

13

Institutional Challenges

14

Summary Central Valley Salmonid ESUs are

threatened with extinction Water project facilities and operations

have negative effects on fish habitat, with cascading effects on spatial structure, diversity, productivity, and abundance of populations

Improving in-stream flows and curtailing exports is necessary to conserve salmon, but will not be sufficient for recovery

An ecosystem perspective is needed to understand how human activities impact salmon

Adaptive management is needed to reduce risks

15

Scope of today’s presentation

Brief highlights of Opinion – not all topics presented due to time constraints

Opinion itself is a summary document of over four years of analytic work between 5 agencies

Biological assessment, NMFS technical memos, peer review reports are important

700+ scientific citations Administrative record is 150,000 pages

- - documents full decision-making process

16

Approach to Biological Opinion:

Challenges Complexity - geographic scope Multi-species State and federal project – combined

operations Number of dams and diversions Economic importance of project

Urban water supply, agricultural water supply, commercial salmon fishery

Long-term proposed operations (21 years) Litigation history Current events (recession, drought,

fishery closure)

17

Approach to Biological Opinion: Constraints

Our task – Limited to analyzing the Federal action, as proposed

Uncertainty in science; risk is balanced in favor of the species

Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) – Limited to actions within authority and

discretion of USBR and DWR Minimum to avoid jeopardy; NOT a

recovery plan Must avoid jeopardy in short-term and

long-term Not necessary to prove quantitatively

18

Consultation Process

Used a team of experienced federal biologists and hydrologists.

Adhered closely to legal requirements, agency guidelines, and used the best available scientific and commercial information

Maintained close and meaningful collaboration with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, CA Department of Water Resources, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and CA Department of Fish and Game

Draft opinion peer reviewed by CALFED Independent Science Panel and Center for Independent Experts (CIE)

19

Scientific Evidence

Used best scientific and commercial information

Literature review - 700 citations Information from previous listing

decisions, critical habitat rules, etc. USBR’s Biological Assessment,

including model outputs Draft recovery plan Monitoring reports

20

Consultation Background NMFS OCAP biological opinions:

Feb. 14, 1992, limited to winter-run Chinook salmon

1993-2002, interim opinions issued due to changes in operations and new species listed

October 22, 2004: In 2008, Federal court invalidated that Opinion, and ordered that NMFS prepare a new Opinion.

June 4, 2009: Six complaints filed to date.

Close coordination with the USFWS throughout the OCAP consultation process

21

Peer Reviews of theDraft Biological Opinion

CALFED Science Panel: James J. Anderson, University of

Washington & Columbia Basin Research

Mike Deas, Watercourse Engineering, Inc.

Philip B. Duffy, Climate Central, Inc.; University of California, Merced

Daniel L. Erickson, Consultant Reg Reisenbichler, Retired--U.S.

Geological Survey (USGS) Kenneth A. Rose, Louisiana State

University Peter E. Smith, Retired--USGS

CIE reviewers: Richard A.

Marston Ian A. Fleming E. Eric Knudsen

CALFED & CIE reviews supported NMFS overall conclusions

22

Peer Reviews of the Draft Biological Opinion

(cont’d) Significant changes made in

response to peer review recommendations: Editing for clarity and consistency

between division analyses Estimate ranges of loss from

compilation of existing studies, even when we did not have complete data sets

Assessed risk based on weighting and key lines of evidence

Plan for drought sequence – not a single dry year

23

Analytical Overview Evaluated each stressor by species, life

stage, and location Risk and uncertainty incorporated

throughout Weighted evidence by certainty and

magnitude of effect Stated assumptions, reviewed model

constraints and applicability, used ranges Identified all direct and indirect effects

Considered variability in the Bay-Delta ecosystem

Summed for individual, population, diversity group and species levels.

24

Analytical Approach Viable Salmonid Populations

ABUNDANCE

POP GROWTH RATE

DIVERSITY SPATIALSTRUCTURE

HABITAT CAPACITY AND DIVERSITY

FreshwaterEstuarineMarine

25

Analytical Approach (cont’d)

Central Valley Technical Recovery Team products:Historical population structure

Assessing viability of Central Valley salmon and steelhead populations

Life cycle approach

26

Stressors on Listed Species Loss of habitat and degraded water

quality due to: Non-Federal dams and diversions Land use activities

Invasive species Hatcheries Harvest activities Environmental variations

Ocean conditions Climate change

27

Environmental Baseline

28

Effects Overview Shasta Reservoir: Future operations,

including climate change: 5 to 65% mortality of winter-run Chinook

salmon eggs and fry Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RBDD):

Delays adult passage of up to 15% of the winter-run and up to 70% of the spring-run that spawn above the RBDD

Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its only known spawning ground

American River: Mean water temperatures > 65°F, results in

increased incidence of disease in juvenile steelhead

~75% of time in June, 100% in July and August, >95% in September

29

Effects Overview (cont’d) Juvenile survival at export facilities:

About 1 in 3 survive through the Federal facilities

About 1 in 6 survive through the State facilities

Overall mortality in the interior Delta: 35-90% of those that enter interior

Delta 5-20% of each winter-run Chinook

salmon population Juvenile San Joaquin River steelhead:

90-99% mortality from project and non-project stressors

Reduction in approximately 13-15% fall- and late fall-run Chinook salmon, which is killer whale prey; effects from hatchery management.

30

Findings of the Biological Opinion

OCAP would likely jeopardize: Sacramento winter-run Chinook salmon Central Valley spring-run Chinook

salmon Central Valley steelhead Southern DPS of North American green

sturgeon Southern Resident killer whales

Destruction or adverse modification of designated and proposed critical habitat

Central California Coast steelhead – not likely to adversely affect this species or its critical habitat

31

Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) Overview

Identified actions to alleviate major stressors for each species and summed these for short-term and long-term

Included appropriate flexibilities in RPA where possible

Monitoring, reporting, research, adaptive management

32

RPA Overview (cont’d) Scope – minimum to avoid jeopardy

Over 50 individual actions grouped by division, plus a fish passage program

Themes: Water quantity and quality gravel augmentation improve passage decrease entrainment engineered solutions

33

Key Elements of the RPA Clear Creek below Whiskeytown

Dam - increased flows and reduced temperatures

Shasta Reservoir and the Upper Sacramento River - new temperature management program

Shasta Dam - long-term passage prescriptions to allow re-introduction of listed salmon

Red Bluff Diversion Dam - interim gate operations until 2012, then gates up all year.

Lower Sacramento River basin and Delta - improved juvenile rearing habitat

34

Key Elements of the RPA (cont’d)

American River - New flow and temperature plan; fish passage at Folsom Dam Hatchery Genetics Management

Plan for Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead and fall-run Chinook salmon.

Stanislaus River – new flow schedule, temperature criteria, and habitat improvements

Delta Cross Channel Gates - Additional gate closures during key times when listed fish are likely to be migrating through the area

35

Key Elements of the RPA (cont’d)

Old and Middle Rivers - Flows will be modified to reduce the number of juveniles exposed to the Delta pumps, and fish salvage improvements to reduce mortality

San Joaquin Basin - Increased flows and pumping curtailments.

Studies – 6 year study of acoustic tagged fish in the San Joaquin Basin to evaluate the effectiveness of the RPA and refine it over the life-time of the project.

36

RPA Flexibilities

Real-time operations Phased-in implementation Performance-based approaches Take limits based on annual juvenile

production estimates Actions tiered to water year

type/drought exception Research and adaptive management

37

Other Alternative RPA Actions

Evaluated during consultation and rejected (ineffective, critical habitat concerns, smelt concerns, predation issues, etc): Trap and haul of San Joaquin steelhead New screens at the existing pumps New screens in the Delta (e.g., Georgiana

Slough) Permanent operable barriers at Head of

Old River Non-physical barrier alone at the Head of

Old River (without increased flows and export curtailments)

38

Alternatives (continued)Alternatives to water supply

evaluated and included in RPA: Gravel augmentation Rearing habitat restoration Engineered solutions, including:

New fish screen at Red BluffNew temperature infrastructure

at Whiskeytown and Folsom Dams

Retrofits to existing salvage facilities

Non-physical barrier (bubble curtain)

Sacramento River Division

Bruce Oppenheim

40

Shasta Dam and Reservoir

41

Carry over Storage in Shasta

Long-term Average Annual and End of September Storage Differences for Shasta Storage, Spring

Creek Tunnel Flow, and Keswick Release

Difference in Thousands of Acre-feet [TAF]

Study 7.0 -

Study 6.0

Study 7.1 -

Study 7.0

Study 8.0 -

Study 7.0

Study 8.0 -

Study 7.1

Shasta End-of-September Storage

26 -121 -121 0

Annual Keswick Release 1 8 6 -2

Annual Spring Creek Powerplant Flows

3 -1 -2 -2

Study 6.0 = 2004 operations Study 7.1 = near future operationsStudy 7.0 =current operations Study 8.0 = future operations

42

Calsim and Sacramento River Water Quality Modeling results for temperature exceedances at

Balls Ferry under future conditions Study 8.0

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

1/1 1/22 2/12 3/5 3/26 4/16 5/7 5/28 6/18 7/9 7/30 8/20 9/10 10/1 10/22 11/12 12/3 12/24

Me

an

Da

ily

Te

mp

era

ture

(F

)

Avg

Max

5%

10%

25%

50%

75%

90%

95%

Min

Date (month/day)

43

Egg and Fry Mortality by Water Year Type at Balls Ferry

Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Average Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical

40-30-30 Water Year Type

Perc

en

t M

ort

ali

ty

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA NAStudy 6.0(2004)

Study 7.0(current)

Study 7.1(near future)

Study 8.0(future)

Water Year Type

Perc

en

t M

ort

ality

44

Temperature effects with Climate Change

Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Average Wet AboveNormal

Below Normal Dry Critical


Per

cen

t M

ort

alit

y

Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise

Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming

Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70






45

Sacramento River Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Average Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical


Per

cen

t M

ort

alit

y

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA NA

Perc

en

t M

ort

ality

Water Year Type

Study 6.0(2004)

Study 7.0(current)

Study 7.1(near future)

Study 8.0(future)

46

Sacramento River Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100




Per

cen

t M

ort

alit

y




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70






Water Year Type

Perc

en

t M

ort

ality

47

Summary of Significant Effects on the Mainstem Sacramento

River Long-term average loss of 121 TAF

September carry-over storage (including effects of climate change) will: Eliminate spring-run spawning in the

mainstem Reduce winter-run spawning habitat in the

mainstem Increase egg mortality substantially in

consideration of climate change [i.e., Critical years increases to 5 to 65% for winter-run, 40 to 95% for spring-run (Sac. R mainstem only), and 4% for steelhead (based on late fall-run Chinook salmon as a surrogate)].

Result in shorter emigration period and lower survival for juvenile salmonids

48

Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RBDD)

Gates in Open Position Looking Upstream

49

RBDD Adult Fish Passage

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Perc

ent o

f Run

Pre

sent

Winter-run Spring-run Steelhead

Green Sturgeon Fall-run Late -fall

4 months closed

2 months closed

50

RBDD Juvenile RunTiming

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


Per

cent

Pre

sent

winter-run spring-run steelhead green sturgeon

4 Months Closed

RBDD Juvenile RunTiming

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


Per

cent

Pre

sent

winter-run spring-run steelhead green sturgeon

4 Months Closed

51

Effect of Operations on Winter-Run Chinook

Salmon

52

Summary of the Main Effects from Operating

RBDD Adult upstream migration:

Delays passage of up to 15% of the winter-run and up to 70% of the spring-run

Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its main spawning ground.

Juvenile downstream migration: Higher predation rates on juvenile winter-run,

steelhead, and green sturgeon as they pass through Lake Red Bluff and the diversion gates (i.e., 45% to 50% during May).

Critical habitat: Adverse modification of 6 stream miles from inundation behind RBDD.

53

RPA Actions to Address Key Sacramento River Division

Effects Clear Creek: New temperature curtain in

Whiskeytown Reduce temperatures in October

Shasta Reservoir: Higher Shasta storage required in Sept. & April

Shasta Dam: New temperature management program

Upper Sacramento River: Long-term passage prescriptions at Shasta

Dam to allow re-introduction of listed salmon RBDD gates up, year round by 2012

Lower Sacramento River and Delta: Restore juvenile rearing habitat

American River Division

55

Lower American River (LAR)

56

Jun

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA

65.0

Jul

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)


65.0

a

b

June

July

Exposure to daily mean water temps. above 65°F are associated with anal vent inflammation in juvenile steelhead in the LAR

57

Aug

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)


65.0

a

Sep

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)


65.0

b

August

September

58

“VSP” = Viable Salmonid Population

Flow fluctuations

Redd scour

Nimbus hatchery

Warm water temps

Entrainment

Angling impacts

Low flows

Folsom and Nimbus Dams

Predation

Project Stressors Baseline Stressors

Loss of natural river function

59

Summary of Main Effects on the Lower American

River Mean water temperatures above

65°F ~75% in June, 100% in July and August, >95% in September, resulting in increased incidence of disease in juvenile steelhead.

Reduced genetic diversity from hatchery management program.

60

RPA Actions to Address Key American River Division

Effects New flow and temperature plan; fish

passage at Folsom Dam Structural modifications for

Improved water temperature control device at Folsom Dam

Temperature control curtains at Lake Natoma

Temperature control at El Dorado Irrigation District Diversion

Hatchery Genetics Management Plan for Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead and Fall-run Chinook salmon.

Eastside Division

New Melones and Stanislaus River operations

Rhonda Reed

63

Stanislaus River – New Melones Dam

Listed Species: Central Valley steelhead

Southern Sierra Nevada diversity group

Current population numbers very low for all 4 populations

Stanislaus Tuolumne

Merced

64

Summary of the Main Effects on the Stanislaus

River Temperature

Water temperatures too warm for CV steelhead, 3-20% of time , especially May-Sept.

Jul

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

pera

ture

(˚F

)


65


River Temperature Flow

Instream flow requirements for CV steelhead not addressed

66

Impaired Flow Pattern Affects Habitat

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1

CF

S

Unimpaired

Impaired

67


River Temperature Flow Ongoing critical habitat degradation

Channel incision cuts off rearing habitat Spawning gravel washed out Channel encroachment.

68

Modeled Monthly Temperature Exceedance Probability:July- Orange

Blossom Bridge

Daily Temperature

Variability

Jul

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)


69

Stanislaus River Minimum Steelhead Flows

Stanislaus River Minimum Steelhead Flows

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

10

/1

10

/11

10

/21

10

/31

11

/10

11

/20

11

/30

12

/10

12

/20

12

/30

1/9

1/1

9

1/2

9

2/8

2/1

8

2/2

8

3/1

0

3/2

0

3/3

0

4/9

4/1

9

4/2

9

5/9

5/1

9

5/2

9

6/8

6/1

8

6/2

8

7/8

7/1

8

7/2

8

8/7

8/1

7

8/2

7

9/6

9/1

6

9/2

6

Date

CF

S a

t G

oo

dw

in D

am

CD

Dry

BN

AN

Wet

Fall Attraction Flow

Spring Outmigration Cues Flow

Outmigration Flow

70

Above Normal Releases vs Minimum Flow Schedule

Stanislaus River Minimum Steelhead Flows Compared to Above Normal Year Operation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

10

/1

10

/12

10

/23

11

/3

11

/14

11

/25

12

/6

12

/17

12

/28

1/8

1/1

9

1/3

0

2/1

0

2/2

1

3/4

3/1

5

3/2

6

4/6

4/1

7

4/2

8

5/9

5/2

0

5/3

1

6/1

1

6/2

2

7/3

7/1

4

7/2

5

8/5

8/1

6

8/2

7

9/7

9/1

8

9/2

9

Date

CF

S a

t G

oo

dw

in D

am

CD

Dry

BN

AN

Wet

1999 AN

71

Channel Demobilization

Kondolf, et al. 2001

72

RPA Actions to Address Key

East Side Division Effects Establish Stanislaus Operations

Group Set operational temperature criteria Set minimum flows for steelhead

survival Channel maintaining flows in wet

years Habitat improvements for spawning

and rearing habitat, building on Central Valley Project Improvement Act authorities

Assess fish passage past New Melones Dam

Delta Division

Jeff Stuart

Key Elements in Delta

Division Climate ChangeDCC GatesProposed Export ChangesDirect Entrainment at Project FacilitiesIndirect Mortality within DeltaSan Joaquin River Inflow to Delta

75

Temporal Occurrence of Species in Delta

76

Climate Change Impacts to Delta:

Fall and winter seasons have greatest sensitivity to climate change according to OCAP modeling.

Drier climates: In wet years: > risk of pumping entrainment in

winter compared to current climate. In dry years: minimal change in OMR flows

during winter and spring.

Wetter climates: In wet years: < pumping entrainment risk in

winter, more positive OMR flows In dry years: > risks in the winter , slightly

more negative OMR flows

77

DCC Gate Operations

DCC Gates

Sacramento

River

N

S

E W

78

DCC Gates Manmade channel (early 1950s) to enhance

water quality for CVP exports at Tracy Can pass 6,000 cfs when gates are open, ≈ 20 to

25 percent of Sacramento River flow at Freeport can move into the Mokelumne River

Listed salmonids are diverted into the channel when the gates are open. Entrainment rate is related to river flow, time of day, and tidal cycle.

Survival of these fish is substantially lower than those fish that remain in the Sacramento River .

Early migrating salmon and steelhead (Nov – Jan) are at risk under current operations schedule.

79

Timing of Juvenile winter-run passage at Knights Landing rotary screw trap sampling 1995-2006

(Low, White, and Chappell 2006)

80

RPA Overview for DCC Gates

Integrate current monitoring triggers with new gate operations in December and January.

Close DCC gates from December 15 to January 31.

Weekly evaluations of monitoring data by the Delta Operations for Salmonids and Sturgeon technical team (DOSS).

Flexibility of gate operations regarding water quality criteria and experimental studies.

Study alternative engineering solutions to control access to the Delta interior

81

Modeled Changes in Export Levels

CVP and SWP exports increase in both near future (Study 7.1) and future conditions (Study 8.0) compared to the current condition (Study 7.0).

Significant increases in exports during the late fall and winter time frames over current operations.

SWP exports increase in April and May due to decrease in “fish water” available for export curtailment.

82

Effects to Listed Salmonids

Elevated exports result in an increased potential for entrainment at the export facilities, as well as migrational delays for fish entering the Delta interior,

Increases in exports reflected in increased negative Old and Middle River flows

Diversion of listed fish into the interior of the Delta increases the risk of mortality (i.e., predation) as well as exposure to contaminants in the Delta interior. Overall mortality in the interior Delta: 35-90% of those that enter the interior Delta 5-20% of winter-run Chinook salmon

population entering the Delta San Joaquin River Basin fish have an increased

vulnerability to entrainment with increased exports levels.

83

SWP

CVP

Flow Patterns in the Delta

84

Projected Old and Middle River Flows

Wet and Above Normal Water Year Types Study December January February March Average Study 7.0 -8350 -6391 -7322 -6858 -7230 Study 7.1 -8083 -6511 -7377 -7956 -7482 Study 8.0 -8230 -6276 -7203 -7890 -7400 Study April May June July Average Study 7.0 -5847 -4381 -4118 -643 -3747 Study 7.1 -6561 -4652 -3450 -1146 -3952 Study 8.0 -6611 -4941 -3792 -1193 -4134

Below Normal and Dry Water Year Types

Study December January February March Average Study 7.0 -7668 -6125 -6767 -7117 -6919 Study 7.1 -6687 -6098 -6504 -8063 -6838 Study 8.0 -6946 -6030 6435 -8004 -6854 Study April May June July Average Study 7.0 -6889 -6052 -5573 -1064 -4895 Study 7.1 -7889 -5897 -5440 -1442 -5167 Study 8.0 -8038 -5989 -5407 -1428 -5215

Critical Water Year Type Study December January February March Average Study 7.0 -4576 -5633 -5293 -6158 -5415 Study 7.1 -3375 -5399 -4892 -6389 -5014 Study 8.0 -3312 -5317 -4333 -6315 -4819 Study April May June July Average Study 7.0 -5368 -4250 -2514 -797 -3232 Study 7.1 -5903 -4744 -2824 -842 -3578 Study 8.0 -5618 -4865 -3024 -870 -3594

86

Particle Entrainment at the Export Facilities under different OMR

flows

~ 40%

USFWS 2008

87

Initial Slope

SWP Loss vs. OMR flows

88

RPA Overview for Exports

Integrate current monitoring triggers with new export operations January through June.

Limit OMR flows, no more negative than -5,000 cfs January through June.

Staged Reductions in exports when fish are present at the facilities, measured by OMR flow levels.

Weekly review of operations and fish salvage by the DOSS technical group.

Actions compatible with the FWS Delta smelt actions

89

Direct Entrainment at Project Facilities

Survival is low through the salvage facilities: • 1 out of 6 fish survive at the SWP• 1 out of 3 fish survive at the CVP

Screening Efficiency Predation issues CHTR operations (Collection,

Handling, Trucking and Release)

90

Overall survival estimates of fish collection actions

Estimate of Survival for Screening Process at the SWP and CVP1

SWP Percent survival Running Percent Pre-screen Survival2 25 percent3 (75 percent loss) 25 Louver Efficiency 75 percent (25 percent loss) 18.75 CHTR Survival 98 percent (2 percent loss) 18.375 Post Release Survival (predation only)

90 percent (10 percent loss) 16.54

CVP4 Percent survival Running Percent

Pre-screen Survival5 85 percent (15 percent loss) 85 Louver Efficiency6 46.8 (53.2 percent loss) 39.78 CHTR Survival 98 percent (2 percent loss) 38.98 Post Release Survival (predation only)

90 percent (10 percent loss) 35.08

91

RPA Overview for Direct Export Entrainment

Increase overall salvage efficiency to 75% for both facilities

Directed actions for both facilities include:• Improve screening efficiency/operations• Reduce predation losses• Improve reporting methodology

Improve survival of salvaged fish releases • Release fish from mobile barges,

multiple release sites, or other methods

92

Indirect Mortality in Delta Interior

Assessed indirect mortality within delta interior utilizing applicable studies and literature.

Compared export and non-export related mortality within the interior delta utilizing DWR’s Delta Survival model and CalSim II output from Studies 7.0 (current operations), 7.1 (near future operations), and 8.0 (future operations).

Assessed recent survival studies utilizing acoustically tagged fish.

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Results from DWR Survival Model

Monthly export related mortality for Sacramento River fish ranged from <1% to 15% combining all studies and water year types for the period between December and June.

Monthly Indirect mortality (non-export) for Sacramento River fish ranged from 3% to 32% combining all studies and water year types for the period between December and June.

Higher E/I ratios had higher mortality levels. Higher E/I ratios typically occurred in December

and January in drier hydrological conditions. Monthly total population mortality for

Sacramento River basin fish migrating downstream in the Sacramento River ranged from 23% to 59% under same conditions as above.

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RPA Overview for Indirect Mortality

Indirect mortality is related to most of the project elements associated with the Delta

The suite of RPA actions that focus on the Delta elements act in concert to reduce indirect mortality by reducing exposure to the sources of mortality

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San Joaquin River Inflow to the Delta

OCAP assumes that VAMP – like flows and exports will continue into the future.

BUT: No defined description of this operation has been presented to date and there is limited “fish water” available to offset VAMP water costs in the future.

Spring-time flows currently seen during the VAMP operations on the Tuolumne River and Merced River are likely to decline

Project and non-project stressors result in 90-99% mortality of Juvenile San Joaquin River steelhead.

Increased survival and subsequent adult returns are linked to increased river flows during the juvenile outmigration period

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Relationship of April and May flows to Adult

EscapementFall-Run Chinook Salmon Escapemnt shifted 2 years

in relation to water year

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Years

Flo

w a

t V

ern

alis

(c

fs)

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10000

20000

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40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Ad

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April Flow s May Flow s SJR Fall-run Escapement

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Total Escapement to the San Joaquin River Tributaries, 1951 through 1996,And Spring Time flows 2.5 years Earlier

From Baker and Morhardt, 2001

98From 2006 VAMP report

Relationship between Adult Fall-run Chinook Salmon Escapement and the Vernalis flow to export ratio 2.5 years earlier

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RPA Overview for San Joaquin River Flows into

the Delta Flows are based on previous studies

and historical gaged flows at Vernalis.

Numerous iterations of the proposed flow criteria were run to examine the effects of the action before deciding on a final action.

RPA is phased in over time Flexibility in RPA pertaining to water

year type and drought conditions Continuing adaptive management

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NMFS’ OCAP Opinion is located at

http://swr.nmfs.noaa.gov/ocap.htmPresentation can be found at:

http://swr.nmfs.noaa.gov/ocap/nasreview.htm

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

Documents

Transcript of NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)