NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri...
Transcript of NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update · Missouri state climatologist, Missouri...
May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar
NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update
May 2017
Jake Crouch Climate scientist, climate monitoring branch, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Patrick Guinan Missouri state climatologist, Missouri Climate Center @ University of Missouri-Columbia
Stephen Baxter Meteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Operations Prediction Branch
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• April: +0.90°C above 20th century average
– 2nd warmest April on record
– 388th consecutive month of above-average global temperatures
• Land: +1.37°C
– 4th warmest April on record
• Ocean: +0.73°C
– 2nd warmest April on record
The global temperature record dates to 1880 (138 years)
Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles
April 2017
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Jan-Apr 2017: +0.95°C above average,
2nd warmest on record.
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Temperature: 53.8°F, +2.7°F, 11th warmest April on record
Precipitation: 3.43”, +0.91”, 2nd wettest April on record
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Temperature Percentiles April 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)
Precipitation Percentiles April 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)
• DE, MD, NJ, NC, OH, PA, WV, VA and DC were record warm
• Much-above average temperatures from Mississippi River to East Coast
• Below-average temperatures in the Northwest
• Northwest, Central Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic wetter than average
• Southwest, Northern Plains, and parts of the Southeast were drier than average
• Drought contracted rapidly during the month with flooding and severe weather in the central U.S.
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Temperature: 43.7°F, +4.5°F, 2nd warmest year to date
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Contiguous U.S. Jan-Apr Temperatures 1895-2017
• Most of the contiguous US was warmer than average, with the exception of the Northwest
• Fourteen states were record warm for Jan-Apr. Only Jan-Apr 2012 was warmer at 44.7°F
Temperature Percentiles Jan-Apr 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)
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1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
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5.6% of Contiguous U.S. in Drought ( 8.6 percentage points since late Mar)
• Improvement: Central/Southern Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, interior Southeast, Northeast • Degradation: Southwest, southern Georgia, Florida • Outside CONUS: Abnormal dryness removed from Puerto Rico, drought improved in Hawaii
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A well forecasted extreme precipitation event…
48-hr precipitation forecast beginning 7 p.m., Friday, Apr 28 thru 7 p.m., Sun, Apr 30, 2017
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Two strong storm systems impacted the Mid-Mississippi Valley region during the end of April and early May, but it was the first system, on April 28-30, that dropped the majority of rainfall and contributed to major flooding
Major Flood Event
SGF WFO
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Major Flooding and Record Crests
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Four similar major flood events have occurred in the past decade…
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3 4
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May 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar
Half-red, half-white circles indicate roads
closed due to flooding • Hundreds of road closures (MO, AR, IL, IN) - major traffic problems,
I-44 and I-55 shut down in places
• Damage to infrastructure (MO, AR, IL, IN) - washed out roads & bridges, failed levies, flooded homes & businesses
• Flooded farmland (MO, AR, IL, IN) - millions of acres of flooded bottomland and millions of dollars of damage to row crops, pastures, orchards, sod farms, fruit and vegetable producers, CSAs etc. – replanting in earnest
• Casualties (MO, AR, IL, IN) - hundreds of water rescues, evacuations and 12 fatalities
Impacts
Meramec River Valley Park, MO St. Louis Post Dispatch
Clearwater Lake Emergency Spillway, Wayne County, MO
Kimberly Combs
Doniphan, MO
NWS Storm Survey
Chandler, IN Police Dept.
May 4, 2017
USDA
Southeastern IL
Linda Geist
Rolla, MO
East Pocahontas, AR
Stephen B. Thornton
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
USDA Pemiscot County, MO
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• Sea Surface Temperatures – Above normal SSTs in the eastern
equatorial Pacific now extend westward across much of the basin
– Away from the equator, above normal (below normal) SSTs across the subtropical (mid-latitude) Pacific and off the eastern seaboard
– ENSO neutral conditions are present
• ENSO Forecast – ENSO neutral and El Niño equally likely
(~45%) from summer through the upcoming winter
– A repeat of La Niña remains unlikely in 2017
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June Average Temperature Probability
June Total Precipitation Probability
May 2017
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June-July-Aug Average Temperature Probability
June-July-Aug Total Precipitation Probability
May 2017
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For More Information
TODAY’S PRESENTATION:
• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings
NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov
• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
• Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov
Climate Portal: www.climate.gov
Midwest Regional Climate Center: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/
Missouri State Climate Center: http://climate.missouri.edu/
NOAA Media Contacts:
• [email protected] , 301-713-0214 (NOAA Communications/NESDIS)
• [email protected], 202-482-2365 (NOAA Communications/HQ)
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