1

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Report on Cooperative Efforts with UMD

Presentation to the NOAA Research Council

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental

Prediction

Mar 1, 2010

2

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Collaboration

• Work to leverage existing research opportunities through UMD funded research by NSF, NASA, DOE and other partners to advance NOAA’s programs

• Provide opportunities for the NOAA workforce• Expand NOAA's influence within the NCWCP and

the UMD complex

Motivation

3

NCWCP Status• Work stoppage in December 2008 when 75% complete• Developer filed Federal lawsuit to recover “damages” from

U.S. Government• Developer filed for bankruptcy, June 2009 (in County Court)• Receiver appointed by County Court in August 2009 and has

taken over security, dehumidification services and repaired water leaks

• GSA continuing negotiations with Receiver to enable construction of facility to be completed

• Federal lawsuit heard on January 11, 2010; judgment received in February

• Most optimistic schedule shows work resuming in July 2010 and NCWCP ready for occupancy in July 2011

4

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

Background • Presentation to NEP May 31, 2007: Engaged the NRC to determine how NOAA

can take advantage of collocation of NCWCP with UMD• Presentation to NRC July 7, 2007: NOAA Center for Weather and Climate

Prediction Opportunities for NOAA (focus on MOU)• MOU signed between NOAA and UMD February 8, 2008• Presentation to NRC March 1, 2010: Update on UMD/NOAA collaboration

5

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Collaboration

• MOU between NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction and UMD NOAA Provides NOAA Receives

Global operational data/model stream Adjunct Professorship statusEmployment opportunities Access to students – successionApplied research foci/goals Academic influence on research and

R2O activities Faculty and Student access Access to faculty and facilitiesEducational staff to UMD Leverage collaborative interagency

UMD IPA opportunities support already provided to UMD

IT high speed communications access Influence on Professor hires Library privileges

Bus shuttle service

6

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Collaboration

• NOAA Activities that can leverage UMD • Ocean/Coastal – UMD Chesapeake Bay activity (NESDIS/NWS/NOS)• Ecosystems – Oceans and Human Health Initiative (NOS & NESDIS)• JCSDA – UMD ESSIC, Expanded data assimilation (NWS, OAR,

NESDIS, NOS)• Satellite Algorithm development and climate records establishment

(NESDIS) • Climate – Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (NWS,

NESDIS)

7

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Collaboration

• Specifics related to MOU– Higgins and Uccellini – Named Adjunct Professors – UMD – created a professor position

• focused on data assimilation and earth systems science

– NESDIS and NWS placed on oversight board for ESSIC– Working on a connection with Oceans and Human Health Initiative (NOS)

Ongoing Activities

8

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Collaboration

Ongoing Activities • Continued work through the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites

(CICS) and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC)

• NESDIS has a branch co-located with CICS/ESSIC (GOES-R support)• CPC participates in staff meetings and serves as a conduit for information exchange

between CICS and ESSIC• CPC coordination on the improvement and evaluation of precipitation products (e.g.

CMORPH, RMORPH, etc.)• CPC coordination on archival and updating of precipitation databases and processing• Coordination between CPC/CTB Management and ESSIC on CTB activities• Future coordination on UMD Chesapeake Bay modeling (with Raghu Murtugudde)• Climate and Human Health (coordination with Rita Colwell)

(1) Climate and Satellite Research and Applications - Development of new observing systems, or new climate observables from current systems; (2) Climate and Satellite Observations and Monitoring - Development and improvement of climate observables from current systems; and (3) Climate Research and Modeling - Research component that brings together climate observables, modeling and validation in a comprehensive integrated whole.

9

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Collaboration

• Chesapeake Bay ecological forecast system (sea nettle) demonstration in an operational environment (NESDIS)

• Developing Integrated Health Early Warning Systems for the Chesapeake (NOS, NESDIS, NMFS, UMD)

• NCO Director serves as the Assistant Director of the Industry Advisory Board for the Center for Hybrid Multicore Productivity Research (a consortium between UMBC, Georgia Tech, and UC San Diego)

• EMC is working with UMD to develop a hybrid ocean data assimilation system (EMC will likely support a UMD student for this effort)

• EMC and UMD are collaborating on a hybrid atmospheric data assimilation system, and application to prototype reanalysis

• EMC is working with UMD on use of cloud products in tropical diagnostics and possibly for hurricanes

• EMC is supporting Fedor Mesinger (ESSIC) for maintaining Regional Reanalysis

Ongoing Activities

10

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Collaboration

UMD Professional Master’s Degree

• Students will complete 10 courses (30 credits) and two of the three certificate programs offered to obtain the MS degree (thesis not required)– Certificate #1: Computational Methods in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences– Certificate #2: General Atmospheric and Oceanic Science– Certificate #3: Air Quality Science and Technology

• Scalable program with future certificate programs added to meet evolving needs• UMD adapted this program to better accommodate NWS employee’s schedules by creating online

classes• NWS employees also allowed to teach courses within this program which fit their area of expertise• The NWS is looking at ways to best encourage and support employees through the University

Assignment Program

11

Advanced Study Institute for Environmental Prediction

• Scientific– Developed prototype of

regional earth system model for Chesapeake Bay and its watershed

• Generates 16-day meteorological, oceanographic, and ecological forecasts

• Financial– Total of $2.3M received from

NOAA / OAR through CICS– Project funds leveraged

• NASA ($300K)– No FY10 funds identified– Current funds to expire ~ Sept

2010 Air-, land-, and water-shed models employed in the Chesapeake Bay Forecasting System

Chesapeake Bay Forecast System

•Objective: Develop a fully integrated model of the Chesapeake Bay and its air and watershed

•Purpose:– Near-Real Time Applications:

Nowcasting and forecasting of the Bay circulation, ecosystem, pathogens, harmful algal blooms, waves and inundation.

– Climate Projections: Estimating effect of climate change, between now and 2050, on the health of the Bay and its watershed.

– Provide a decision making tool for users

SeaWiFS true-color image of Mid-Atlantic Region from April 12, 1998.

Image provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and ORBIMAGE

13

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Next Steps

• Complete the building !!!

• Continued coordination with UMD with an emphasis on increased scope (e.g. ecosystem prediction; satellites; climate…)

• Improve accessibility through continued effort to complete the new building and move to M2 Research Park

• Work with UMD to provide some sort of university “Status” for NOAA employees in NCWCP

• Make the UMD new Professional Master’s Program more accessible for NOAA employees

14

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Collaboration

Appendix

REGIONAL EARTH SYSTEM

PREDICTION

Team: ESSIC-NOAA-HPL-SPH-UMIACS- NCSU

Raghu Murtugudde

The Chesapeake Bay Forecast System

Chesapeake Bay Forecast System

•Objective: Develop a fully integrated model of the Chesapeake Bay and its air and watershed

•Purpose:– Near-Real Time Applications:

Nowcasting and forecasting of the Bay circulation, ecosystem, pathogens, harmful algal blooms, waves and inundation.

– Climate Projections: Estimating effect of climate change, between now and 2050, on the health of the Bay and its watershed.

– Provide a decision making tool for users SeaWiFS true-color image of Mid-Atlantic Region

from April 12, 1998.

Image provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and ORBIMAGE

Why Chesapeake Bay?

Boesch and Greer 2003

CBFS Computing Requirements on Discover

20-member 14-day WRF forecastWall clock time = ~6-8 hours on 240 processors.~13GB disk storage per day.

15-member 4-month WRF seasonal forecast Wall clock time = ~30 hours on 360 processors.~40 GB disk storage per forecast (12 forecasts per year).

IPCC scenario downscalingWall clock time = ~30 days per decade of simulation on 24 procs.~500 GB per decade.

ROMS: Regional Ocean Modeling System

Tidal Harmonics

Conditions at Bay’s Mouth• Near-real time water level• Climatological vertical

profiles of temperature, salinity, and NO3, PO4, O2

concentrations

Temperature, Salinity, O2, Light

Heat Flux

Precipitation

Wind

Solar Radiation

Currents

Nutrients (N,P)Phytoplankton

Zooplankton

Sediment Transport

SedimentResuspension

River Flow and Load

Atmospheric Depositionand Ventilation

Particle Sinking &Remineralization

Example Output from 20-member 14-day Forecast

Above: 14-day 20-member ensemble mean forecast. Right: Forecast daily temperature and rainfall for the Rappahannock Basin. Black line is ensemble mean.

Predicted Dissolved Oxygen in the Chesapeake Bay

Predicted HSI for striped bass in the Chesapeake Bay

Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)