2015 No vacancy

www.dransfield.com.au

Market forces Dean Dransfield Director & Owner

+61 2 8234 6644

Dean.dransfield@dransfield.com.au

P P www.dransfield.com.au 1

DARWIN

FY14 -4.9%

FY15 -4.9%

CAIRNS

FY14 0.9%

FY15 8.7%

BRISBANE

FY14 -8.4%

FY15 0.3%

GOLD COAST

FY14 -0.4%

FY15 8.2%

SYDNEY

FY14 5.9%

FY15 5.6%

CANBERRA

FY14 -2.7%

FY15 0.0%

MELBOURNE

FY14 5.6%

FY15 7.3% HOBART

FY14 2.9%

FY15 5.1%

ADELAIDE

FY14 0.9%

FY15 -3.1%

PERTH

FY14 -11.4%

FY15 -0.5%

AUSTRALIA RevPAR

FY2015 4.0% Forecast

FY2014 0.7% Actual

RevPAR Growth 2014-15

P

Major City Performance FY2014

www.dransfield.com.au 2

Location Occ Occ

Growth

Rate

Growth RevPAR

RevPAR

Growth

Adelaide 77.9% 3.0 -2.9% $106.97 0.9%

Brisbane 75.2% -3.0 -4.7% $124.18 -8.4%

Cairns 65.2% 0.7 -0.2% $80.35 0.9%

Canberra 66.7% -2.3 0.7% $109.65 -2.7%

Darwin 76.3% -2.5 -1.7% $121.43 -4.9%

Gold Coast 64.5% -3.6 5.2% $94.31 -0.4%

Hobart 70.6% -3.3 7.8% $106.62 2.9%

Melbourne 82.8% 2.4 2.6% $149.48 5.6%

Perth 81.0% -2.4 -8.8% $145.65 -11.4%

Sydney 86.6% 1.9 3.7% $175.13 5.9%

Total Market 76.6% -0.3 1.1% $130.81 0.7%

P

YTD Performance

www.dransfield.com.au 3

STR SLIDES

P

YTD Performance

www.dransfield.com.au 4

STR SLIDES

P

Major City Forecast

www.dransfield.com.au 5

Forecast Average RevPAR Growth

Location Short

FY2015

Medium

FY15-17

Long

FY15-23

Adelaide -3.1% 2.1% 3.3%

Brisbane 0.3% 2.1% 4.8%

Cairns 8.7% 7.3% 4.6%

Canberra - 1.0% 3.6%

Darwin -4.9% 0.4% 2.3%

Gold Coast 8.2% 6.7% 4.4%

Hobart 5.1% 1.4% 2.4%

Melbourne 6.2% 5.9% 4.5%

Perth -0.5% 0.9% 3.6%

Sydney 5.6% 6.0% 4.6%

Total Market 4.0% 4.6% 4.4%

P

Demand Outlook Upgraded

www.dransfield.com.au 6

TFC FORECAST MOVEMENT – Long Term to FY2022

P

Demand Outlook upgraded

www.dransfield.com.au 7

DRANSFIELD NATIONAL DEMAND FORECAST – LONG TERM

• Short term

expectations are for

2.7% growth in

FY2015

• Medium term

expectations to

FY2017 are for 3.3%

growth p.a

• Long term demand

forecast is a slight

upgrade and is

expected to average

3.5% growth p.a to

FY2023

P

Supply Outlook

www.dransfield.com.au 8

MAJOR CITY SUPPLY GROWTH PERFORMANCE AND FORECASTS TO FY2023 – ROOMS

Following 3 years of limited supply growth we expect to see an increase in new supply across the country, with

the peak of the supply cycle expected through 2018/2019, 12 months later the prior expectations.

P

development TRENDS

www.dransfield.com.au 9

• In the past 12 months there has been significant proposal activity

• Market Response book is being filled

• New projects are coming on 12-24 months later than anticipated

in our market response

• Key trends in this development cycle:-

– Upper end of the market (luxury/5 star)

– Mixed use developments and often as part of a large precinct

– Operator sponsored vs developer sponsored

– Stronger level of government sponsorship

– Increased volume of conversions or repositioning of older

assets

– Focussed on traditional hotel stock where as the previous cycle

was focussed on Serviced Apartments

Total Pipeline - 22,676

Total Pipeline - 24,271

P

Supply Outlook

www.dransfield.com.au 10

MAJOR CITY FORECAST SUPPLY GROWTH BY TYPE – FY2015-2022

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Brisbane Gold Coast Melbourne Perth Sydney

2014 Actual Construction Proposals Market Response

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Adelaide Cairns Canberra Darwin Hobart

2014 Construction Proposals Market Response

5 LARGEST HF CITIES BY ROOM COUNT 5 SMALLEST HF CITIES BY ROOM COUNT

P

Investment Geography

www.dransfield.com.au 11

Property Purchaser Geography Reported Price

Sheraton on the Park Sunshine Insurance Group Corporation China $463.0

Hilton, Sydney Bright Ruby China $451.6

Sofitel Darling Harbour Shwartz Family Co Australia $368.0

Sofitel Wentworth, Sydney Frasers Ceterpoint Singapore $202.7

NEXT Hotel, Brisbane Challenger Australia $144.0

Bell City, Victoria Elanor Investors Limited Australia $142.9

Park Hyatt, Melbourne Fu Wah International Group China $135.0

Novotel Brighton, Sydney Oscars Hotel Group Australia $105.0

Sofitel Gold Coast Huayu Group China through Blue Ocean Gold

Coast China $83.0

Vibe Hotel, North Sydney CBUS property $80.0

Rydges Darwin Airport Hotel & Resort Real Estate Capital Asia Partners IV (SC Capital) Singapore $80.0

Jupiter's Townsville Hotel & Casino Colonial Leisure Group Australia $70.0

Oaks on Lonsdale Ovolo Group Ltd Hong Kong $65.0

P P

Dransfield services

www.dransfield.com.au 12

55,000 rooms, 500 projects over 20 years

experience in Australia and the surrounds.

• Transaction Management

• Development

• Advisory

• Investment

• Strategic Consulting

• Operator Selection

• Due Diligence

• Feasibility

• Strata Title

• Experts Reports

• Asset Management

• Financial Services Licensed

DEAN DRANSFIELD

Director & Owner

T +61 2 8234 6644

E Dean.dransfield@dransfield.com.au

DRANSFIELD is a specialist professional services organisation advising the tourism, finance and property industries.

Experience includes acting as principals and advisors for a wide range of hotel and resort assets

> City hotels and regional assets

> Single and multi-site operations

> Backpacker to 5 Star

Publish Hotel Futures – Long term Australian Hotel Forecasts