No Slide Title€¦ · 19 Wheat Storage Program • 1 CWRS 14.5% protein+ - targeted for blending...
32
Transportation Update David Przednowek Senior Manager, Ocean Freight and Terminal Operations January 16, 2009
Transcript of No Slide Title€¦ · 19 Wheat Storage Program • 1 CWRS 14.5% protein+ - targeted for blending...
Transportation Update
David PrzednowekSenior Manager, Ocean Freight and Terminal Operations
January 16, 2009
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Agenda
• CWB Supply Chain
• 2008/09 so far…
• Ocean Freight Market Review
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Prairie to Port
900 miles
1275 miles
1100 miles
2100 miles
900 miles
US Gulf
U.S./MexicoMills
4
ChurchillChurchillPrince RupertPrince Rupert
VancouverVancouver St. LawrenceSt. LawrenceThunder BayThunder Bay
Supply Chain Funnel
110 000
670 000
175 000
870 0001 305 000
On Farm Storage: 50 MTExports: 31 MTCommercial Inland Storage: 4.5 MT
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Canadian Grain Export Pattern 1977/78 – 2007/08
0
5
10
15
20
25
77/78
79/80
81/82
83/84
85/86
87/88
89/90
91/92
93/94
95/96
97/98
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
mill
ion
tonn
es
East West
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CP Mountain SubAvalanche on CP Line
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East Coast Logistics
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9
Welland Canal
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11
12
13
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Impact of Freight Costs on Grain Marketing2008/09 so far…
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W. Canadian Crop 2008
(MMT) 07/08 08/09 Change
Wheat 18.4 25.5 (+39%)Spring 13.4 18.0 (+34%)Winter 1.3 2.0 (+54%)Durum 3.7 5.5 (+50%)
Barley 10.3 11.2 (+9%)
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CWB Exports
(MMT) 07/08 08/09F Change
Wheat 11.4 12.65 (+11%)
Durum 3.1 3.35 (+8%)
Barley 2.8 1.6 (-57%)
Total 17.3 17.5 (+1.2%)
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A Series Acceptance
CWRS 80%Durum 60%
Prairie Spring Red (CPSR) 80%
Prairie Spring White (CPSW) 80%
Red Winter (CWRW) 100%
Soft white (SWS) 80%
Extra Strong 100%
Hard White Spring 100%
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Current Delivery Calls
1/2 CWRS 50%3 CWRS 25%CWRW 50%CPSR 50%CWES 100%CPSW 100%SWS 50%CWAD 45%
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Wheat Storage Program• 1 CWRS 14.5% protein+ - targeted for blending Japan sales
• Premiums:– 15.0 protein - $15.00 per tonne– 14.5 - 14.9 protein - $10.00 per tonne
• Storage $1.00 per tonne per month
• Sign-up deadline March 20, 2009
• Sign-up available across Western Canada - minimum 80 tonne sign-up
• 100% acceptance
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Churchill Storage GDC Program• Open to farmers in the Churchill catchment area for
holding back deliveries for shipment through the Port of Churchill
• No. 1 and 2 CWRS
• Premium: $2.50 per tonne
• Storage: $1.00 per tonne per month
• Sign-up deadline January 30, 2009
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Churchill Catchment
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Producer Cars
10500
4282
11969
4284
10912
3552
7933
2590
02000400060008000
1000012000
Railcars
'07/08 '06/07 '05/06 '04/05Crop Year
Annual To Jan 10
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Ocean Freight Market Overview
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Dry bulk shipping by vessel since 2000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
mill
ion
tonn
es
Iron OreCoalGrainBalance of dry bulk
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Baltic Dry Index
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jan-0
0Ju
l-00
Jan-0
1Ju
l-01
Jan-0
2Ju
l-02
Jan-0
3Ju
l-03
Jan-0
4Ju
l-04
Jan-0
5Ju
l-05
Jan-0
6Ju
l-06
Jan-0
7Ju
l-07
Jan-0
8Ju
l-08
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Baltic Dry Index
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jan-0
0Ju
l-00
Jan-0
1Ju
l-01
Jan-0
2Ju
l-02
Jan-0
3Ju
l-03
Jan-0
4Ju
l-04
Jan-0
5Ju
l-05
Jan-0
6Ju
l-06
Jan-0
7Ju
l-07
Jan-0
8Ju
l-08
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Panamax Pacific Round Voyage Daily Hire
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
May-06
Aug-06Nov-0
6Feb-07May
-07Aug-07Nov-0
7Feb-08May
-08Aug-08Nov-0
800
0 U
SD/d
ay
Jan 14/09$1,693 per day
$75,000/day
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“Bulk Rates Crash Spills Blood”“Catastrophic losses are spreading from operator to operator as the bulker charter-rate crisis deepens.”
Tradewinds (3 October 2008)
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“ArcelorMittal hit by writ in time charter ‘breaches’ bonanza”“… high-profile miners and traders sued for allegedly breaching time charter contracts for ships hired during the troubled final quarter of 2008.”
Lloydslist (16 December 2008)
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“Loan Defaults to Turn Bankers into Shipowners”“…record drop in rental rates for commodity carriers leaves clients unable to pay back loans...”
Lloydslist (15 January 2009)
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-0
3Apr-
03Ju
l-03
Oct-03
Jan-0
4Apr-
04Ju
l-04
Oct-04
Jan-0
5Apr-
05Ju
l-05
Oct-05
Jan-0
6Apr-
06Ju
l-06
Oct-06
Jan-0
7Apr-
07Ju
l-07
Oct-07
Jan-0
8Apr-
08Ju
l-08
Oct-08
USD
/tonn
e
PNW Gulf
Adapted from USDA Grain Transportation Report
Ocean freight spreads narrowing…
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Questions
