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No-Magic-Wands: The Benefits and Dangers of Automated ......Wisdom of Crowds for Advanced &...
Transcript of No-Magic-Wands: The Benefits and Dangers of Automated ......Wisdom of Crowds for Advanced &...
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No-Magic-Wands:
The Benefits and Dangers of
Automated Machine Learning
Dr. Ingo MierswaFounder
@ingomierswa
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The Problem
Organizations still face a data scientist bottleneck.
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615million
informationworkers
363million
informationworkers
105million
informationworkers
Slide from Tableau Investor Presentation 2015 Q4. 615m knowledge workers in 2013 (Forrester), 17% (105m) use BI tools and 59% (363m) use spreadsheets (Forrsights).
The Few The Many The Most
BI Tools
Excel
White Space
Machine Learning for All Knowledge Workers?
150MillionCitizenDataScientists
The Unicorns
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Usability Functionality Reliability Adaptability TCO Vendor Validation
Source: Ventana Research Next Generation Predictive Analytics Benchmark Research
Most Important: Ease of Use
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My Data.xls Upload and Do Magic!
The Expectation:
Data Science in a Box™
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Benefits in a Nutshell
… for Citizen Data Scientists … for Real Data Scientists
It's easy!
I'm more productive!
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What could possibly go wrong?
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Prediction of Churn
Can we predict the likelihood for customer churn for each of our clients?
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ChurnArea Code Phone State
Account Length Int'l Plan
VMail Plan
Day Calls
Day Charge
Day Mins
Eve Calls
Eve Charge
Eve Mins
Intl Calls
Intl Charge
Intl Mins
Night Calls
Night Charge
Night Mins
CustServ Calls
VMailMessage
no 415 382-4657 KS 128.0 No PlanVMail
Plan 110.0 45.1 265.1 99.0 16.8 197.4 3.0 10.0 91.0 11.0 244.7 4.0 25.0
no 510 356-2992 VA 76.0 No Plan 66.0 32.3 189.7 65.0 18.1 212.8 5.0 10.0 108.0 7.5 165.7 5.0 33.0
yes 408 360-1596 AZ 12.0 No Plan 118.0 42.4 249.6 119.0 21.5 252.4 3.0 11.8 90.0 12.6 280.2 9.0 .0
no 408 364-1995 DE 142.0 No Plan No Plan 133.0 31.8 187.0 74.0 11.4 134.6 5.0 7.4 127.0 10.9 242.2 3.0 .0
no 408 420-5645 IN 60.0 No Plan No Plan 57.0 37.5 220.6 115.0 17.9 211.1 3.0 1.8 6.8 129.0 11.2 249.0 3.0 .0
no 415 403-9733 WI 68.0 No Plan No Plan 70.0 25.3 148.8 164.0 21.0 246.5 3.0 12.1 103.0 5.8 129.8 3.0 .0
no 415 352-8305 WA 40.0 No PlanVMail
Plan 74.0 25.2 148.1 88.0 14.4 169.5 5.0 6.2 102.0 9.6 214.1 1.0 41.0
no 408 365-9011 MN 113.0International
Plan No Plan 93.0 21.3 125.2 119.0 17.5 206.4 8.0 2.2 8.3 139.0 5.8 129.3 4.0 .0
no 415 362-5889 HI 85.0 No Plan No Plan 109.0 40.1 235.8 94.0 13.4 157.2 3.0 12.0 99.0 8.5 188.2 5.0 .0
yes 415 334-1275 LA 155.0 No Plan 100.0 34.6 203.4 104.0 16.2 190.9 4.0 8.9 119.0 8.8 196.0 10.0 .0
no 415 340-4953 AR 80.0 No Plan No Plan 100.0 21.1 124.3 107.0 14.7 173.0 9.0 7.9 62.0 11.4 253.2 1.0 .0
no 408 366-4467 AK 104.0 No Plan No Plan 106.0 47.3 278.4 113.0 6.9 81.0 5.0 9.8 137.0 7.3 163.2 4.0 .0
no 408 383-1509 AL 98.0 No Plan 117.0 27.4 161.0 113.0 16.2 190.9 4.0 12.1 113.0 10.3 227.7 .0 .0
yes 510 363-1069 ME 36.0International
PlanVMail
Plan 89.0 33.5 196.8 122.0 21.7 254.9 6.0 20.0 126.0 6.2 138.3 8.0 42.0
no 510 391-4652 NJ 64.0 No Plan No Plan 83.0 27.6 162.6 109.0 13.0 152.3 3.0 14.2 122.0 2.6 57.5 3.0 .0
no 415 329-4391 MS 193.0 No Plan No Plan 124.0 29.1 170.9 95.0 11.3 132.3 3.0 11.6 89.0 5.1 112.9 4.0 .0
yes 510 414-8718 MS 61.0 No PlanVMail
Plan 124.0 31.9 187.5 103.0 12.5 146.6 6.0 6.4 129.0 10.2 225.7 10.0 27.0
no 408 355-2909 CA 75.0 No Plan No Plan 125.0 28.3 166.3 86.0 13.5 158.2 5.0 1.7 6.1 80.0 11.6 256.7 2.0 .0
no 408 411-5859 AR 163.0 No Plan No Plan 109.0 33.5 197.0 128.0 17.2 202.6 10.0 9.1 80.0 9.3 206.4 .0 .0
no 415 374-3534 MD 120.0 No Plan 68.0 34.1 200.3 97.0 18.7 220.4 4.0 10.5 116.0 11.4 253.8 3.0 39.0
Target Base Data Transaction Data
Machine Learning
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Let ME be your Auto Model…
I will create an awesome model for you and tell you how well it works!
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96% Accuracy
Reach ALL churn casesat 20% of cost
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5 million customers @ $600Churn rate: 15%$450 million loss due to churn
Cost: at 25% of revenue, we can achieve a success rate of 60%for the identified top 20%
$150 million cost forretaining $270 million
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6 Monthslater…Turns out that reaching out tothe top 20% only reaches 50%of the churn cases…
Still$150 millioncost for$135 millionretained
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My Data.xls Upload and Do Magic!
The Expectation:
Data Science in a Box™
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My Data.xls Upload and Do Magic!
Disclaimer: Using models produced by this technology carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all users. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding
to use these models in any business environment you should carefully consider your objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your assets and therefore you should not use these models in combination with any of your assets that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with
using these models, and seek advice from an independent data science advisor if you have any doubts.
THE RESULTS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE ARE BASED ON SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS THAT HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE THE RESULTS SHOWN IN AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, THESE RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL MODEL PREDICTIONS. ALSO, BECAUSE THESE PREDICTIONS HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED,
THESE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN BUSINESS FACTORS. SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL MODEL RESULTS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS
OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THESE BEING SHOWN.
How this should look like:
Data Science in a Box™
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There are no Magic Wands
(Citizen) data scientists need to stay in full control to test, modify and fine tune every step.
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#noblackboxes
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RapidMiner Auto Model
…accelerates everything data scientists do whenbuilding machine learning models
Auto Model automates Data Science –but without the black box!
Readdata
Select task
Prepare data
ResultsModelFilter low-
quality data
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Benefits of RapidMiner Auto Model
… for Citizen Data Scientists
#noblackboxesLearn from the results
… for Real Data Scientists
#noblackboxesStarting point for optimization
It's easy!
I'm more productive!
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TRUST#noblackboxes
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Our Mission
Real data science, fast and simple.
We do not compromise on the quality of results or completeness.
We focus on making data scientists and teams more productive.
We empower more people to do and use real data science.
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RapidMiner Highlights
Analysts
By the numbers
#1 Open-Source Platform
Last five years in a rowData Mining &
Analytics Software Poll
Leader2017
Predictive Analytics & Machine Learning
#1
Data Science Platform
350,000+
Data Science Community
500+
GlobalClients
Channel Partners
200+
Innovation Winner 2015
Wisdom of Crowds for Advanced & Predictive Analytics, Big Data Analytics & End-User Data Prep
Leader 2014 - 2018
Gartner Magic Quadrant for Data Science Platforms
Accolades
CB InsightsThe AI 100, 2017
“100 Startups Using Artificial Intelligenceto Transform Industries”
VENTANA RESEARCH2016 Technology Innovation Awards
Winner Predictive Analytics
Gartner, Magic Quadrant for Data Science Platforms, 22 February 2018. Gartner does not endorse any vendor, product or service depicted in its research publications, and does not advise technology users to select only those vendors with the highest ratings or other designation. Gartner research publications consist of the opinions of Gartner's research organization and should not be construed as statements of fact. Gartner disclaims all warranties, expressed or implied, with respect to this research, including any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
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Data Science Designer, Code Optional, Auto Model Deployment, Management & Collaboration
Simplified Big Data Science & Machine Learning
On-demand Innovation & Execution
RapidMiner Marketplaces
RapidMiner Studio RapidMiner Server
RapidMiner Radoop
ModelingEfficiently build and
deliver better models faster
ValidationConfidently &
accurately estimate model performance
Data AccessConnect to any data source, any format,
at any scale
Data ExplorationQuickly discover patterns or data
quality issues
Data PrepSpeed & optimize data exploration,
blending & cleansing tasks
IntegrationEmbed reliable
results into business processes
ManagementManage models,
user administration & security
CollaborationAccess, reuse and share processes &
data sources
ComputationRun processes on
enterprise hardware from
anywhere
SchedulingSchedule or trigger event-driven model
execution
Simplified AnalyticsReduces Hadoop
complexity
Lightning FastCovers complete analytics lifecycle
Broad Data AccessEliminate connectivity
struggles
Integrated SecurityEnsure security
compliance
Hadoop-optimizedLeverage Hadoop distributed power
Scalable ProcessingProcess in-Hadoop and
in-memory
Spark ExecutionExecute RapidMiner processes in parallel
∞ Extensive Domain ExpertiseExpert marketplace of certified RapidMiner skills
Plug-ins, Algorithms, ExtensionsProduct Marketplace to extend and innovate
RapidMiner Data Science Platform
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Key Take-aways
Do NOT fall in the marketing trap: there are no magic wands!
Put guidance and productivity gains before empowering the whole world to build models.
Done correctly, Auto Model can truly accelerate data science and teach people #noblackboxes
RapidMiner Auto Model is doing it right and covers everything: data prep for modeling, model selection, parameter optimization, and correct validation
Can be combined with other parts of the RapidMiner platform: Studio for further process design & ETL and Server for model deployment & management
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Thank you!Dr. Ingo Mierswa@ingomierswa