No. 1

October 28, 2005Japan Petroleum Energy Center

http://www.pecj.or.jp/jcap/

Further Challenge in Automobile and Fuel Technologies

for Better Air Quality

Air Quality Simulation in Japan Clean Air

Program II

No. 2

Content

1.Outline of JCAP and Air Quality Model Research

2.JCAP II Air Quality Simulation Model

Development Concept

3.Air Pollution Concentration Simulation Precision

4.Future Air Quality Prediction Results

5.Summary

No. 3

１． Outline of JCAP and Air Quality Model Research

No. 4

What is JCAP?

• Collaborative study by automobile and oil industries to find the best combination of automobile and fuel technologies to improve the air quality of Japan and to provide the government with rational technical data for policy making.

• Supported by Petroleum Energy Center, a subsidy of METI METI: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

• JCAP I :1997 – 2001 (Budget: Approx. 5.4 billion yen, Numbers of staffs: over 100 members)

• JCAP II: 2002 – 2006 (Budget : Approx. 5.6 billion yen, Numbers of staffs: about 130 members)

Japan Clean Air Program

No. 5

Motivation of JCAP -1-

(Whole Japan Ave.)1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Ｙｅａｒ

ＳＰ

Ｍ　

（ｐ

ｐｍ

）

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Ｙｅａｒ

ＮＯ

２　

（ｐ

ｐｍ

）

0

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.02

0.06

0.10

0.14

0.18

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

■■

RoadsideUrban Background

NO2 SPM ■■

RoadsideUrban Background

Air Quality:-Not improved in early 1990’s-Attainment Ratio was poor at Urban Area Photochem. Oxidant (0.06ppm)

SPM (0.1mg/m3)

NO2 (0.06ppm)A

ttai

nm

ent

Rat

io (

% ) ( 　 ):Air Quality Standard

100

50

0’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00

No. 6

Motivation of JCAP -2-Emission/Vehicle Reduction vs. Emission Inventory Increase No. of Vehicles increase Diesel Increase RV, Fuel Cost, etc.

Stringent Emission Regulation introduction-1989 Reg. Diesel NOx-1994 Reg. Diesel NOx-1998 Reg. Diesel NOx and PM-2003 Reg. (Under discussion)-2005 Reg. (Under discussion)

1015

0

0.4

0.0

0.6

'04 '06 '08 '10'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02

EURO4EURO3

Japan

EURO3 EURO4

Year

NO

x(g/

kWh)

PM

(g/k

Wh)

Japan5

0.2

2005Reg.

2005Reg.

2003Reg.

2003Reg.EU

EU

USA

USA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000年

台数

（百

万台

）

PCTruck

Mini PCBus, Special

Combine fuel and automobile technology for further emission reduction

Develop of Air Quality Simulation Model and Evaluate future air quality improvement

No. 7

Emissions reduction target

Technical evaluation for automobile emissions reduction

(Automobile technology x Fuel technology)

Technical information helpful for more reasonable environmental measures

Target of JCAP study

Estimate of Air quality

improvement

Cost evaluation of Air quality

improvement

No. 8Example of JCAP Results Reflection in Environment and Energy Policies

1. Great effect of sulfur content in fuel on exhaust emissions. Reflected in fuel standard: 50ppm S content; gasoline/diesel fuel from 2005. 10ppm S content; gasoline/diesel from 2008/2007.

2. Great effect of Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of gasoline on evaporative emissions. Reflected in self-imposed control of gasoline RVP.

3. Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) retrofitted to in-use vehicles is not sufficient, under urban driving conditions.Reflected in preparation of Tokyo Metropolitan

Government’s diesel vehicle emission regulations.These are reflected through: • Experts Committee on Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emission, • Petroleum Products Quality Sub-committee of Advisory Committee for Natural Resources

and Energy, • Evaluation Committee of Diesel vehicle Emission Control Technologies.

No. 9

Tasks of JCAP II

1. Pursuing the future automobile and fuel technologies aimed at realizing Zero Emissions and improving fuel consumption, based on the latest technologies and overall energy efficiency.

2. Developing Air Quality models with high accuracy to predict real world.

3. Study of un-regulated emissions and nanoparticles from the vehicles.

No. 10

JCAP II Study Subject Outline(1) Automobile and Fuel Technology Study

Evaluate high technology for gasoline/diesel vehicles aiming at near Zero Emissions and fuel/oil properties

Evaluate emissions and CO2 reduction potentialExamine fine particle measurement method and evaluate high

technology through high measurement methods Key Word: Zero Emissions, CO2 reduction, Octane Number of

Gasoline, Bio fuel, Nanoparticle, Oil properties (Ash, P,S)

(2) Air Quality Model StudyBuild Real-world Emission Inventory Simulation ModelBuild Integrated Air Quality Model of Urban Air Quality Model

and Roadside Air Quality ModelEvaluate Integrated Air Quality Model and Case Study

Key Word: Real world, High accurate model, Roadside, Nanoparticle

No. 11

Role of JCAP II to Regulatory Affairs

Researches on Air Quality Modeling with high-grade accuracy and database

establishment enabling to evaluate policies

Environmental policies

Energy policies

Researches on automobile and fuel technologies aimed at

realizing Zero emission (compatible with CO2

emission control measures)

Emission inventory

estimate in real world in the

future

Direction of future automobile technologies and the required

fuel quality

Prospects of Air Quality improvement effects such as

automobile emission reduction

Forecast for petroleum quality, supply and demand

Contribution to environment and energy policies through Fair Data

No. 12

JCAP II results and incorporation into policy-making

• Fuel economy improvement due to fuel sulfur content reduction (from 50 to 10ppm) has been verified.– Reported to the Petroleum Products Quality Subcommittee of Advisory

Committee for Natural Resources and Energy.

・ The report has been incorporated into the Subcommittee report, “Fuel sulfur content should be reduced to 10ppm or less from 2007 for diesel fuel and 2008 for gasoline, respectively.”

• Air quality improvement effect due to new emission control technologies has been simulated.– Reported to a hearing of Experts Committee on Motor Vehicle Exhaust

Emissions of the Central Environment Council.• The results were used for the 8th report of the Central Environment Council of the

Ministry of the Environment as data predicting the air quality improvement effect due to enforcement of stricter emission regulations quantitatively.

No. 13

Air Quality Improvement in Japan(Tokyo)Average NOAverage NO22/SPM concentrations decreased, and the attainment of the /SPM concentrations decreased, and the attainment of the

environmental standards is low on the roadside. environmental standards is low on the roadside.

Att

ain

men

t　

Rat

io　

(%)

RoadsideUrban Background

Att

ain

men

t　

Rat

io　

(%)

NO2

SPM0

20

406080

100NO2

SPM

SP

M（

mg

/m3

）

020

406080

100

NO

2(pp

m)

0

0.04

0.08

0.02

0.06

0.10

'97 '98

'99‘00‘01‘02‘03'97'98 '99

‘00‘01‘02‘03’04 ’04

'98

'99‘00‘01‘02‘03'98 '99

‘00‘01‘02‘03’04 ’04

NO2

SPM

NO2

SPM

SP

M（

mg

/m3

）

NO

2(pp

m)

Annual Ave. Conc.

Attainment Ratio

0

0.04

0.08

0.02

0.06

0.10

'97'97

No. 14

2 JCAP II Air Quality Simulation Model Development Concept

No. 15

General Formation of Air Quality Models

Roadside

Nanoparticle

Keyword

Regional Scale Model

Roadside Model

Meteorological Model

Nanoparticle ModelDeposition

Condensation

Coagulation/Evaporation

Nucleation

Secondary organicaerosol formation

Airflow Model

Model Integration

2-300km

1km

No. 16

Emission inventory estimate other than

automobiles

Micro-scale traffic flow simulation

Micro-scale emission inventory Estimate

(Roadside Air QualityModel)

Roadside Air Quality Simulation Model

Multi-scale Air Quality

Simulation Model

(Regional Air Quality Model)

Road linkageRoad structure

Transport demand(OD, PT data)

Macro-scale traffic flow Simulation

Macro-scale emission inventory Estimate (Regional / Urban Air Quality Model)

Secondary Aerosol Model

Meteorological model

High-emitting vehicleactual condition survey

(Remote-sensing)

Air pollutant concentrations

incl. nanoparticles at

roadside ~ in urban area ~ regional area

Effect evaluation of

Automobile emissions

Emission measurementon chassis-dynamometer

(1) Air Quality Model Data Flow

No. 17

(2) Sensitivity Analysis Method Outline

Sensitivity analysis method in URM

-> 　 Decoupled Direct Method (DDM)

Parameter 　 p = P

∂c

∂Transportation / reaction equation for

Analogous with concentration equation

（ Initial condition, boundary condition, emission inventory, wind speed, diffusion coefficient, etc. ）

(What is DDM?)

Solve in parallel with concentration c For emission inventory simulation, simulation target place can be appointed.

Parameter

Conc.Present

stateData

replacement

Sensitivity analysis

No. 18Sensitivity to NO2 (Time-series analysis at Kanda-Central of Tokyo)

0

20

40

60

80

100

NO

2 (p

pb)

- 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

9 00日 時 9 12日 時 10 00日 時 10 12日 時

NO

2 (pp

b/10

0%)

感度

Calculated value

Observed value

NOx emissionsWind speed

Initial conc. Diffusion coefficient

Boundary conc. Deposition rate

NO

2 c

onc

.

Dec.9 00:00

Dec.9 12:00

Dec.10 00:00

Dec.10 12:00

High sensitivity to wind speed in the morning while calculated values are underestimated

High sensitivity to deposition rate at night

High sensitivity to emission inventory while calculated values are small

No. 19

(3) Key Points in Air Quality Model development

- Measures for simulation precision improvement through sensitivity analysis -

i) Establish Multi-scale model

iv) Establish tertiary grid cell emission source data

iii) Consider trans-boundary air pollution

ii) Reproduce complex weather condition at city center

No. 20

0

25

50

75

12/ 7 00時

12/ 7 12時

12/ 8 00時

12/ 8 12時

12/ 9 00時

12/ 9 12時

12/ 10 00時

12/ 1012時

NO

2 (p

pb)

Utsunomiya - NO2

JCAP IObserved value CMAQ

0

50

100

150

12/ 700時

12/ 712時

12/ 800時

12/ 812時

12/ 900時

12/ 912時

12/ 1000時

12/ 1012時

SPM

(μ

g/m3 )

Utsunomiya - SPM

(3)-1 Integration of long range air pollution transportation effect

Boundary condition: Apply CMAQ simulation results of grid cells ranging from 10 to 4 km square 　　　　　　　　　 CMAQ boundary is set based on East Asia area simulation resultsInitial condition: Start the simulation 8 days before the evaluation target day

Dec.700:00

Dec.712:00

Dec.800:00

Dec.812:00

Dec.900:00

Dec.912:00

Dec.1000:00

Dec.1012:00

CMAQ G1

URM

CMAQ G2

CMAQ East Asia area

Dec.8, 1999

No. 21

(3)-2 Remote-Sensing Device(1) Speed-Acceleration Detector - Comprehend test vehicle driving conditions - Exclude inaccurate analysis results because of exceeding acceleration and deceleration

(2) Emissions Detector

- CO ， CO2 ， HC* ： Measurement using Infrared rays (IR) - NO ， PM** ： Measurement using Ultraviolet rays (UV)

• * Conversion into propane (C3H8)• ** Conversion into PM weight per 100g of fuel (smoke

factor) instead of Opacity

(3) Automatic License Plate Reader - Test vehicle information such as vehicle type, applicable regulations, GVW, fuel type, etc. is obtained from license plate. Information is used for emission test result analysis.

(4) Data Processing Equipment

- Speed-Acceleration, emission measured values, imagery of test vehicles are recorded in real time. Number plate information is input separately.

(1)

(2)(3)

(4)

No. 22

RSD Emission inventory measurement　　　　　Limit speed/acceleration range, and set Cut Point for high-emitting vehicles(Ex. NO: 1250ppm, corresponding to level of US I/M test Cut Point * 2)　　　　　Ratio estimate in number of high-emitting vehicles by model year 　　　　　Set emission factor for high-emitting vehicles (Basis: ’78 reg. meeting vehicle w/o catalyst)　　　　　High-emitting vehicle emission inventory estimate

High-emitting vehicle emission inventory estimate method (Gasoline vehicles only)

0 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 20 0 200 20 0 20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 y

r

1 y

r

2 y

rs

3 y

rs

4 y

rs

5 y

rs

6 y

rs

7 y

rs

8 y

rs

9 y

rs

10

yrs

11

yrs

12

yrs

13

yrs

14

yrs

Vehicle age (First registration year: 2002)

Rat

io o

f hig

h-em

ittin

g ve

hicl

es[%

] 1978 reg. (+ ’98 reg. Idling control) reg. meeting vehicle

2000 reg. meeting vehicle (Incl.☆ ，☆☆，☆☆☆ )

-800-400

0400800

12001600200024002800

～1

98

8

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

First registration year

NO

[p

pm

]

1978 reg. meeting vehicle

Cut Point

=>

=>

=>

=>

No. 23

(3)-3 Emission inventory estimate from all emission sources

JCAP Grid cell size: about 5kmⅠ JCAP Grid cell size: about 1kmⅡ

Example of emission inventory distribution (NOx)

Add other emission sources which had been excluded from consideration:　　　　　 Construction, industrial and agricultural machinery, open burning, etc.

No. 24

3. Air Pollution ConcentrationSimulation Precision

No. 25

SPM Concentration Distribution (Dec. 10, 18:00)

0

200(g/m3)

Air pollution monitoring station observation data

Latest emission inventory data

JCAP IEmission

inventory data

JCAP I JCAP II

JCAP I Update of model /meteorological condition

Consideration of long range air pollution transportation

Update of emission inventory

No. 26

SPM Simulation precisionSPM average conc.

in target areaNormalized Mean Bias

Normalized Mean Error Unpaired Peak Accuracy

Measured value

Update of model /meteorological condition

Update of emission inventory

Consideration of Long range air

pollution transportation

Update of model /meteorological condition

Update of emission inventory

Consideration ofLong range air

pollutiontransportation

SPM average conc. in target area (g/m3)

Upgrade of model /meteorological condition

Update ofemission inventory

Consideration of Long range air

pollutiontransportation

Update of model /meteorological condition

Update ofEmission inventory

Consideration ofLong range air

pollutiontransportation

JCAP

JCAP I

JCAP I JCAP I

64.0

29.5

36.3

45.9

38.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

-50.9

-40.1

-25.7

-38.2

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

-69.9

-48.3

-34.8

-41.6

-80 -60 -40 -20 0

51.1

41.3

30.6

39.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

No. 27

4. Future Air Quality Prediction Results

No. 28

0 20 40 60 80 100

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Total Emission Inventory EstimateTotal emission inventory in the specified area for Automobile NOx/PM Laws in Kanto bloc (t/day)

Year 2000

Base case (Spontaneous turnoverbefore 2005 reg. introduction)

Introduction of 2005 reg. &High-emitting vehicle elimination

Case 1: Emission level reduction to ½ of 2005 reg.

Case 2: Emission level equivalent to US 07 reg.

Year 2000

Base case (Spontaneous turnoverbefore 2005 reg. introduction)

Introduction of 2005 reg. &High-emitting vehicle elimination

Case 1: Emission level reduction to ½ of 2005 reg.

Case 2: Emission level equivalent to US 07 reg.

-22%

-32% Year 2015

NOx

-29%

-32%Year 2015

SPM

Automobile

Mobile source

Large-scalepoint source

Small-scalepoint source

Automobile

Mobile source

Large-scalepoint source

Small-scale point source

Tire wear

Road dust

-30%

-27%

-29%

-30%

No. 29

SPM concentrations

Daily average SPM conc. distribution 0 70 (g/m3)

Year 2000 (with HE / ME

emission factor)

Year 2015 (with HE / ME

emission factor)

Year 2015 (w/o HE, with MEemission factor)

NOx: -50%PM: -50%

NOx: -87%PM: -52%

76.0

47.3

47.4

46.7

46.8

0 20 40 60 80SPM (規制地域内 最大濃度 g/ m3)

Average conc. in the specified area for NOx/PM Laws

Highest conc. in the specified area for NOx/PM Laws

32.0

22.9

22.9

22.7

22.8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2000 HE年（ 有り・環境省）

2015 HE年（ 有り・環境省）

2015 HE年（ 無し・環境省）

NOx-50% PM-50%、

NOx-87% PM-52%、

SPM (規制地域内 平均濃度 g/ m3)

Year 2000 (with HE / ME emission factor)

Year 2015 (with HE / ME emission factor)

Year 2015 (w/o HE.with ME emission factor)

NOx: -50%, PM: -50%

NOx: -87%, PM: -52%

Average SPM conc. (g/m3) Highest SPM conc. (g/m3)HE: High-emitting vehicleME: Ministry of the Environment

No. 30

5.Summary

JCAP II Air Quality Model Study are summarized as follows:• Sensitivity Analysis method was introduced for prediction

accuracy improvement• Multi-scale model, Emission data accuracy and precise

meteorological data in central metropolis. are key points for simulation accuracy improvement

• Air quality simulation is an effective way for policy making to improve future air quality

• JCAP Model will be opened to the public widely when the JCAP II finished

No. 31

End of Presentation