NM Economic Situation September 2012 Suzan Reagan, Labor Economist The recovery has started, really!...
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Transcript of NM Economic Situation September 2012 Suzan Reagan, Labor Economist The recovery has started, really!...
NM Economic Situation
September 2012Suzan Reagan, Labor Economist
The recovery has started, really!2010-2020 Projections
Labor Market Information•Job Descriptions•Education•Wages•Employment levels•Future Growth
1)NM Economic SituationIndustry
Recession History/impact of
Current Situation
What’s Next (2010-2020)
Occupations Hot Jobs
Clusters
STEM & Healthcare
Agenda
2)Sources:
Career Solutions LASERCareerOnestop.org
The Great Recession
•Started December 2007
• Housing Peaked on 2006
• High Oil and Gas prices early 2007
• Financial Markets in August 2007
New MexicoTotal Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted:
Max. April 2008: 850,200Min. August 2012: 792,300Difference: -57,900
The Great Recession Ended July 2009?
5
Min. August 2012: 792,000 August 2011: 804,400 Over -the-year change: -12,400
New Mexico Total Non-farm Seasonally Adjusted Employment
NM Industries Change
HOW DID NEW MEXICO HANDLE THE RECESSION?
•Mining lost over 500
•Construction shed about 16,000
•Manufacturing lost another 8,000
•Retail took a hit with 6,000
•Admin & Waste Svs 5,000
•Bright spot Health Care +12,000
AgricultureMiningUtilities
ConstructionManufacturing
Wholesale TradeRetail Trade
Transportation & WarehousingInformation
Finance and InsuranceReal Estate
Professional & Technical ServicesManagement Companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Waste ServicesEducational Services
Health Care and Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment, & RecreationAccommodation & Food ServicesOther Services, Ex. Public Admin
Public Administration
-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000
Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NMDWS
To 1st Qtr 2012562 Ag
3,398 Mining-27 Utils.
-1,843 Const. 532 Manuf. 459 Whole. 1,111 Retail
955 Trans. 12 Info.-368 Fin. -116 RE
-945 Prof. 0 Mgmt.
-1,922 Admin.-961 Ed.
2,223 Health526 Arts
151 Accom.111 Other-1,670 PA
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
63846312
5892
5532
6900
8292
11568
11352
1056010428 10800
9804
9084 9624
11268
1318813908 14112
12516
9120
5808
45604562
4029
2451
New Mexico Private Housing Building Permits, 1988 - Present
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau
Jan-06
Mar-06
May-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
Nov-06Jan
-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07Jan
-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08Jan
-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09Jan
-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10Jan
-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11Jan
-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
NM Oil Rig CountAverage price per barrelin 2006 was $62.65
Average price per Barrelin 2002 was $27.46
Oil prices averaged$91.77 in 2008 Current price per
Barrel is about$93.45
This year prices have continued to be volatile spiking to a highs of over $105 to lows in May under $80
Source: PETROLEUM RECOVERY RESEARCH CENTER, SOCORRO, NM
.
Values above 50represent expansion.
1970-01 1972-05 1974-09 1977-01 1979-05 1981-09 1984-01 1986-05 1988-09 1991-01 1993-05 1995-09 1998-01 2000-05 2002-09 2005-01 2007-05 2009-09 2012-010
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
ISM Manufacturing
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
US Retail Sales, 1992 to present
USIn thousands
NM
Total Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted
NM vs. US Employment from 1990 to Present
1990
-01
1990
-08
1991
-03
1991
-10
1992
-05
1992
-12
1993
-07
1994
-02
1994
-09
1995
-04
1995
-11
1996
-06
1997
-01
1997
-08
1998
-03
1998
-10
1999
-05
1999
-12
2000
-07
2001
-02
2001
-09
2002
-04
2002
-11
2003
-06
2004
-01
2004
-08
2005
-03
2005
-10
2006
-05
2006
-12
2007
-07
2008
-02
2008
-09
2009
-04
2009
-11
2010
-06
2011
-01
2011
-0820
12-3
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
NM US
NM Employment Industry Mix
Source: Projections unit 2010-2020, NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
Utilities1%
Mgmt of Co.1% Real Estate
1%
Agriculture1%
Arts & Rec.2% Information
2%Transportation
2% Mining2%
Other Svcs 3%
Finance3%
Wholesale3%
Manufacturing4%
Admin. & Waste Mgmt
5%Construction
6%Professional, Scien-
tific, & Tech Svcs7%
Accommodation & Food Services
10%
Educational Svcs10%
Retail Trade11%
Government (Ex. Health & Ed)
12%
Health Care & Social Assistance
15%
2010 Emp. Est.
Current Employment SituationThe unemployment rate for:
August 2012 August 2011
The US is at 8.1% 9.1 %
New Mexico 6.5% 7.5 %
Albuquerque 6.8% 7.9%
Las Cruces 6.7% 7.5%
Santa Fe 5.1% 6.0%
Farmington 6.5% 7.6%
The bad news is…
Seasonally Adjusted
What about…
14
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization U-6
NM 15.3%Third Quarter of 2011 through Second Quarter of 2012 Averages.
• Unemployed
• Part time for economic reasons
• Multiple Jobs holders
•Marginally attached workers
•Bureau of Labor Statistics
•4 QTR Moving Average
•http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
Part time but would work
full timeDiscouraged unemployed workers
Multiple job holders
Employment to Population Ratio
1-1976 9-1977 5-1979 1-1981 9-1982 5-1984 1-1986 9-1987 5-1989 1-1991 9-1992 5-1994 1-1996 9-1997 5-1999 1-2001 9-2002 5-2004 1-2006 9-2007 5-2009 1-201148
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
New Mexico Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 1976-2012
Employed as a percent of population
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Another look at Employment & Unemployment
1-197611-19779-1979 7-1981 5-1983 3-1985 1-198711-19889-1990 7-1992 5-1994 3-1996 1-199811-19999-2001 7-2003 5-2005 3-2007 1-200911-20100
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
New Mexico's Population Employment Status Monthly from 1976- 2012Not Seasonally Adjusted
Employed Unemployed Civilian noninstitutional population
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
US Unemployment Rates for Men and Women
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Men Women
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
New Mexico Unemployment Rate by Age2011 annual averages
16 to 19 yrs 20 to 24 yrs 25 to 34 yrs 35 to 44 yrs 45 to 54 yrs 55 to 64 yrs 65 years and over
0
5
10
15
20
2522.9
12.5
8.7
6.55.5
3.9 4.4
Source: Census Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment
7.4%
New Mexico 2010 Unemployment Rate
White, one race
Black or African American, one race
American Indian and Alaska Native, one race
Asian, one race
Some other race
Two or more races
Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race)
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino
Population 20 to 64 years
8.6%
9.2%
14.4%
8.8%
11.6%
11.1%
11.3%
7.2%
9.0%
Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin
Source: 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Table S2301 Employment Status
County Unemployment Rates August 2012
6.57.8
6.2
6.0
7.4
4.44.2
6.6 4.0
7.1
8.9
3.8
4.2
5.3
3.1
16.9
7.913.6
5.8
7.1
7.2
4.4
6.5
6.77.85.2
6.1
4.8
7.9
7.9
4.3
7.8
5.4
7.2
8.2
6.6
6.2
7.8
4.63.8
7.2 4.1
7.2
11.2
4.2
5.9
4.3
5.5
3.1
19.9
8.713.9
7.2
7.2
8.4
4.6
7.1
7.38.15.5
6.7
5.0
9.1
7.7
4.5
8.2
Not seasonally adjustedSource: NMDWS LAUS unit in conjunction with US Bureau of Labor Statistics
NM UI Continued Claims Duration
Based on UI Summary Data 1st Qtr 2012: Average Duration 20.3 weeks in 2011
071-074
072-081
073-082
074-083
081-084
082-091
083-092
084-093
091-094
092-101
093-102
094-103
101-104
102-111
103-112
104-113
111-114
112-121
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90New Mexico: Number of Statewide Unemployed by Duration (in Weeks of Unemployment)
52+ 27-51 15-26 5-14 <5
Four-Quarter Period (Year/Quarter)
Tota
l Une
mpl
oyed
(Tho
usan
ds)
Source: Current Population Survey
What’s Next : Employment Projections 2010-2020
FutureFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The future is the indefinite time period after the present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics.
National Trends – projected population by age
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
NM Population Projections by Age
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
April 2000
July 2005 July 2010 July 2015 July 2020 July 2025
65 years & over
45 to 64 yrs
25 to 44 yrs
18 to 24 yrs
14 to 17 yrs
5 to 13 yrs
Under 5 yrs
Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005
NM Employment Projections 2010-2020
750,000 800,000 850,000 900,000 950,000
1,000,000 1,050,000
855,296
991,600
Growth of 136,304Total Change 15.9%Annual Average Change 1.49%
Source: NMDWS ER&A Projections Unit
2010-2020 Projections Workforce Investment Areas
2010 Estimated Employment 2020 Projected Employment -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Southwestern
Northern
Eastern
Central
Annual Average Percent Change
1.40
1.46
1.50
1.43
Source: NMDWS ER&A Projections Unit
Projected 991,600NM Job Recovery
Max Employment CES April 2008 at 852,000
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
740,000
760,000
780,000
800,000
820,000
840,000
860,000
880,000
900,000
Employment Recovery
Employment Pre-Recession
Trendline according to 2010-2020 IndustryProjections.
Intersect in 2016.
Casselman, Ben. “A State-by-State Look at Long Road to Jobs Recovery.” Wall Street Journal Blog, November 14, 2011
Tigger Slide
Occupations
30
O*NET / SOC 2010 Code StructureSample code : 15-1152.00 Title: Computer Network Support Specialists
11- Management Occupations13- Business & Financial Operations Occupations15- Computer and Mathematical Occupations17-Architecture and engineering Occupations19- Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations21- Community and Social services Occupations23- Legal Occupations25- Education, Training, and Library Occupations27- Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Related29- Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occs.31- Healthcare Support Occupations
33- Protective Service Occupations35- Food Preparation & Serving Related Occs.37- Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance39- Personal Care and Service Occupations41- Sales and Related Occupations43- Office &Administrative Support Wkrs45- Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occs.47- Construction and Extraction Occs.49- Installation, Maintenance, and Repair51- Production Occupations53- Transportation and Material Moving55- Military Specific Occupations
Organized into Groups:
New Mexico Occupational Group
Management OccupationsBusiness & Financial Operations Occs
Computer & Mathematical OccsArchitecture & Engineering Occs
Life, Physical, & Social Science OccsCommunity & Social Svcs Occs
Legal OccupationsEducation, Training, & Library Occs
Arts, Entertainment, Sports, & MediaHealthcare Practitioners & Technical
Healthcare Support OccsProtective Service Occs
Food Preparation & Serving Related Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance
Personal Care & Service OccsSales & Related Occs
Office & Administrative SupportFarming, Fishing, & Forestry Occs
Construction & Extraction OccsInstallation, Maintenance, & Repair
Production OccupationsTransportation & Material Moving
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000
Employment 2010 - 2020
2020 Projected Employment 2010 Estimated Employment
Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS
Occupational Employment by Education Needed
Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS
Some College, no degree1%
Master's degree2% Doctoral or professional degree
3%Postsecondary non-
degree award4%
Associate's degree6%
Bachelor's degree13%
Less than high school30%
High school diploma or equiva-lent42%
NM 10 Occupations with the Highest Employment
Occupation
2010 Estimated
Employment
Retail Salespersons 29,637
Cashiers 19,001
Personal and Home Care Aides 17,778
Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 17,486
Registered Nurses 15,146
Waiters and Waitresses 15,141
General and Operations Managers 13,993
Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 13,692
Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Inc. Fast Food 13,489
Janitors & Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners 13,168
Nationally – Retail Salespersons and Cashiers make up nearly 6 percent of total US Employment, OES 2011.
Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS
NM Occupations, Most Annual Openings
Rank Occupational
2010-2020Annual
Average Job Openings
2011Entry Level Wage (OES)
1 Retail Salespersons 1,435 $17,320
2 Waiters and Waitresses 1,114 $17,260
3 Cashiers 1,112 $17,330
4 Personal and Home Care Aides 1,083 $17,290
5Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Inc. Fast Food 809 $17,200
6 Registered Nurses 667 $50,290
7 Home Health Aides 600 $20,110
8 Customer Service Representatives 501 $20,850
9Elementary School Teachers, Ex Special Education 500 $38,410
10 Laborers & Freight, Stock, & Material Movers 494 $17,510
Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS
Highest Growth Jobs in NMOccupations 2010-2020
Annual Percent Change
Home Health Aides 4.8%
Personal and Home Care Aides 4.3%
Coaches and Scouts 3.9%
Helpers--Carpenters 3.6%
Interpreters and Translators 3.6%
Meeting and Convention Planners 3.6%
Roustabouts, Oil and Gas 3.4%
Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 3.3%
Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas 3.3%
Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas 3.2%
Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 3.2%
Physical Therapist Assistants3.1%
Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS
NM Occupations – High Wage & Growth
Rank Occupational Title
2011Annual
Average Wage (OES)
2010-20Annual Job
Growth
1 Radio Mechanics $46,290 5.1%
2 Interpreters and Translators $53,200 3.6%
3 Meeting and Convention Planners $49,500 3.6%
4 Roustabouts, Oil and Gas $34,150 3.4%
5 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers $67,240 3.3%
6 Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas $49,910 3.3%
7 Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas $63,980 3.2%
8Philosophy and Religion Teachers, Postsecondary $60,870 3.2%
9 Physical Therapist Assistants $37,730 3.1%
10 Financial Examiners $79,940 3.0%
Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections & Occupational Employment Survey Units NMDWS
Show me the money!12 Highest paying jobs in New Mexico 2011
Occupation
Annual Median
Wage (OES )
Psychiatrists $180,740
Family and General Practitioners $174,990
Pediatricians, General $166,810
Dentists, General $157,380
Dentists, All Other Specialists $141,600
Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary $134,610
Engineering Managers $131,290
Pharmacists $117,040
Air Traffic Controllers $114,050
Engineers, All Other $111,100
Materials Scientists $111,090
Natural Sciences Managers $106,360
Podiatrists $104,210 Source: Occupational Employment Survey (OES) Unit NMDWS
Lowest Paying Jobs in New Mexico
Occupation
2011 Average Annual Wage
(OES)
Baggage Porters and Bellhops $18,580
Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners $18,570
Graders and Sorters, Agricultural Products $18,560
Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials $18,390
Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse $18,350
Food Preparation and Serving Related Workers, All Other $18,310
Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials $18,310
Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop $18,300
Dishwashers $18,270
Child Care Workers $18,260
Source: Occupational Employment Survey (OES) Unit NMDWS
The Top 15 NM Occupations in Decline 2010-2020Occupation Title Annual Percent
Change
Postal Service Clerks -6.0%Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators -6.0%
Prepress Technicians and Workers -3.6%
Postmasters and Mail Superintendents -2.7%
Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service -2.7%
Desktop Publishers -2.5%
Office Machine Operators, Except Computer -1.9%
Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers -1.7%
Camera Operators, Television, Video, and Motion Picture -1.5%
Radio and Television Announcers -1.4%
Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials -1.4%
Motion Picture Projectionists -1.3%
Gaming Change Persons and Booth Cashiers -1.3%
Reporters and Correspondents -1.3%
Floral Designers -1.2%
Detailed job profile for nearly 800 occupations
• Job Description +knowledge, skills, tasks, abilities• SOC and O*NET
• Training Program Completers• Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) crosswalk Many-to-Many
• Typical Education Requirements• Wage Statistics by area and industry• Employment Projections• Employment by Industry• Area’s available:
– Statewide, – 4 MSA’s, – 4 Workforce Investment Regions
Tools for LMI• Career Solutions : http://www.dws.state.nm.us/careersolutions/
• LASER: http://laser.state.nm.us/
• NM Workforce Connection: https://www.jobs.state.nm.us/
• Green Jobs: http://www.greenjobs.state.nm.us
• National http://careeronestop.org/
• O*NET lookup http://www.onetonline.org/
•O*NET Academy http://www.onetacademy.org/
Job Corp Pathways
• Welding• Cement Masonry• Plumbing• Electrical Wiring• Facilities
Maintenance• Carpentry• Office Admin.• Health Occupations
Education Pays