Nigeria's Gas and Gas-liquid Reserves

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RIVERS STATE UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND

TECHNOLOGY NKPOLU, OROWORUKWO

P.M.B. 5080, PORT HARCOURT

TERM PAPER

TOPIC:

NIGERIAS NATURAL GAS AND GAS-LIQUID RESERVES

PRESENTED BY:

(GROUP 1)

NAMES:

OHAZURUIKE LOTANNA VITUS DE. 2007/1049

EZERIE ADINDU WILLIAMS DE.2005/0713

OGBU KINGSLEY DE. 2007/1047

OKPARA NELLY CHINASOM DE. 2007/1051

GBERESUU CHRISTIAN DE. 2006/2810

ALBERT-BRIGGS FITZALLEN DE. 2007/1012

DEPARTMENT: PETROLEUM ENGINEERING

COURSE TITLE: NATURAL GAS PROCESSING

COURSE CODE: PTE 542

COURSE LECTURER: ENGR. FIDELIS WOPARA

MARCH, 2013


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ABSTRACT

A mention of the name Nigeria brings to mind, in terms of reserves, a major

quality oil producer. What few do not know is that the country is just as

much, or perhaps more of a gas than oil province. If oil has played a key role

in developing the countrys economy, gas is yet to and may even make a

much greater impact on the positive growth of the nations economy. With

an estimated 180 Tcf (30 MMboepd) proven natural gas reserves as of the

end of 2011, the country stands taller than all its African peers and is

positioned at the ninth largest natural gas reserve holder in the world. This

paper is designed to review the nations Natural gas reserves; how it has

grown over time, its utilization and importance to the economy. It shall also

employ projected production amidst exploration efforts, if any, to forecast

the rate of decline/increase of these reserves up to a foreseeable future.

Statistics are presented at every point to portray clearly and distinctively the

nature of these reserves.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Contents Pages

1. Abbreviations and Acronyms 3

2. Introduction 4

3. Current Reserves 7

4. Depletion of Gas Reserves 11

4.1.Growth of Reserves 11

4.2.Gas Reserves Decline 12

4.2.1. Gas Flaring 15

4.2.2. Domestic Gas Market 17

4.2.3. Export-Oriented Project 19

5. Conclusions and Recommendations 21

6. References 22

7. Appendix 24

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1.0 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

WB NSGMP World Bank Nigeria Strategic Gas Master Plan

US EIA United State Energy Information Administration

IOCs International Oil Companies

ALSCON Aluminium Smelter company of Nigeria

UNDP United National Development Programme

NLNG Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas

EGTL Escravos Gas To Liquids

BOE Barrels Of Oil Equivalent

MMCF Million Cubic Feet

Tcf Trillion Cubic Feet

Bcf Billion Cubic Feet

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2.0 INTRODUCTION

Nigeria and its natural gas

It is a publicly held notion that Nigeria is richly blessed with abundant

resources, but very few consider its Natural gas reserve potential when

making this statement. The focus is and has always been on its oil, with

majority of its natural gas discoveries being mishapsin the search for oil. In

spite of the fact that there has never been a single exploratory effort designed

solely to discover gas, the country has an estimated 180Tcf proven gas

reserves, enough reserves which based on its productionto-reserves ratio is

expected to last for 109 years (Ukpohor, 2009). Despite holding a top 10

position for proven natural gas reserves, Nigeria produced just 1Tcf of

natural gas in 2011 and ranked as the worlds 25 th largest natural gas

producer (US EIA, 2012).

Figure 1: Top 10 Proven Gas Reserve Holders, end 20115


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Failure to harness its gas resources has had its share of contribution to the

nations sluggish economic growth. This is particularly true in the power

sector where unreliable or nonexistent gas supplies have contributed to a

major ongoing crisis in power deliveries, crippling the economy for years,

and seriously inhibiting new investment (WB NSGMP, 2004). A number of

issues have plagued its efforts to harness these resources, the most profound

of which are the instability issues of the Niger Delta, the nations natural

resources base. For example, the US EIA 2012 Report on Nigeria stated that

dry natural gas production grew for most of the last decade until Shell

declared a force majeure on gas supplies to the Soku gas gathering and

condensate plant in November 2008. Shell shut down the plant for repair

damages to a pipeline connected to the Soku plant that was sabotaged by

local groups siphoning condensate. This is only one of similar numerous

incidents of oil theft plaguing production in the region.

Other issues hindering its efficient reserves growth and utilization have all

been found to revolve around the nations government and its regulation of

the industry. This, we believe is the sole reason why this nation still flares

majority of its produced gas in spite of the gas flaring deadline of 2008

given by the government. The government has also failed in its obligation to

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create the market necessary to encourage exploratory efforts in this sector.

This is evident in the lack of sole exploratory efforts designed to discover

gas. Also hampering the exploratory efforts are the instability involved with

the governments proposed Petroleum Industry Bill, a reason for which

international oil companies have deliberately delayed exploration and

development of certain prospects.

Also paramount is the rather slow domestic growth and utilization of its gas

resources. Some experts believe that the countrys gas reserves could be as

high as 600Tcf, which is three times more than the current conventional

estimate of 187Tcf. This is enough to last as long as 500 years, fuelling our

industries, homes, and international export, if efficiently harnessed.

Nonetheless, amidst all these setbacks, the nation does have a bright future if

its current drive and proposed gas utilization projects are seen to the end. Its

commendable increase in gas related projects, most notably the NLNG and

EGTL facilities, are giant strides in the direction of economic growth. It is

hoped that a continuous stream of similar well-conceived projects and

associated domestic power development projects, would bring the nation to

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a much anticipated top economic spot in line with its vision statement for the

year 2020.

3.0 CURRENT RESERVES

Nigeria is endowed with abundant natural resources, which in energy terms,

is in excess of the nations proven crude oil reserve. However, the gas was

discovered whilst exploring for crude oil, as there is virtually no exploration

for gas in Nigeria. Therefore, high oil production implies that additional high

volumes of associated gas will be produced (Ojide et al, 2012). This gas

reserves is split appropriately on a 50/50 ratio between AG and NAG. Most

of the proven gas reserves are found as AG in the Niger Delta basin while

the majority of the NAG has been discovered in the offshore blocks

(Economides et al, 2004).

It is estimated that 90% of Hydrocarbon reservoirs in Nigeria contain

potential commercial volume gas-cap (Economides et al, 2004). If properly

harassed, this could bring the nation an unprecedented economic growth.

The WB NSGMP 2004 stipulates that the Niger Delta Basin has a proven

plus probable oil and condensate reserves found to date of 55 billion barrels.

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This compares to gas reserves found to date of 32 billion BOE (194 Tcf)

distributed among the 707 existing fields and discoveries in the basin (WB

NSGMP, 2004). Currently, the US EIA 2012 report on Nigeria put this

figure at 30MMM BOE (180Tcf). More important however, are the

remaining and yet-to-find gas reserves. The first category is estimated to

hold 158 Tcf of gas reserves with 142 Tcf estimated to be in the second (WB

NSGMP, 2004). The YTF estimate is somewhat conservative, considering

only plays or producing zones currently known.

As previously stated, the reserve would be designated as either AG or NAG.

Traditionally, most oil companies do not like to find gas together with their

oil field associated gas (AG). Rather, they prefer to find gas without it

being mixed up with oil- Non Associated Gas (NAG) (Ojide et al, 2012).

The OPEC quota of 1.704MMBPD production for Nigeria imposes a limit to

the AG production. Consequently, producing companies have to device

means of disposing it in order to profit from the oil, the lucrative driver. The

figure below shows the quantity of gas resources available to Nigeria and the

split between NAG and AG. It should be noted that this designation has

more to do with the way the field is or will be developed than actual oil or

gas reserves. As such, a few fields that are technically gas or gas condensate

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have been designated as AG because they are located with oil fields (WB

NSGMP, 2004).

From the figure, approximately two-thirds of the remaining AG reserves are

in production and One-third are undeveloped or developing discoveries.

However, for NAG, there are more non producing reserves than producing

reserves (WB NSGMP, 2004). This is just another indication of the absence

of the deliberate exploratory efforts for gas in Nigeria.

Figure 2: Associated and Non-Associated Gas Resources

Source: World Bank Strategic Gas master Plan 2004

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Across the Niger Delta, exploration success, at fifty percent, is above global

averages. Hence, Nigerian upstream potential is likely to remain extremely

positive, and the potential YTF resources may almost equal the remaining

discovered reserves in the basin (WB NSGMP, 2004). Based on this, the

following table was prepared.

Table 1: Yet-To-Find Hydrocarbons in Nigeria by Hydrocarbon type

and Geographic Area

Oil (Bnbbl) Gas (BCF)Associated Non Associated

Onshore

East 8522 37364 2812

West 6761 17971 2926Offshore

East 15264 29878 21636

West 8830 17284 12516Total 39737 102497 39382

4.0 DEPLETION OF GAS RESERVES

4.1 GROWTH OF RESERVES

The rate of increase in gas reserves in Nigeria is to a large extent difficult to

estimate owing to the wobbly premise and blurry future of associated

exploratory efforts required to acquire the estimate. This is evident in the

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estimate presented by various sources. As of 2000, IHS Energys database

estimated a proven gas reserve of about 150 Tcf (WB NSGMP, 2004). In

2004, a total of about 187 Tcf was estimated by the WB NSGMP. This

represents an increase of about 6.2 % per annum. According to the BP

Statistical Energy Survey, Nigeria had as at 2009, proved natural gas

reserves of 185 Tcf, representing a 0.32% decrease per annum from the 2004

estimate. At the end of 2011, OGJ put the figure at 180 Tcf, representing a

1.35% decrease per annum (US EIA, 2012). This decrease could be

attributed to the introduction of the LNG trains 4, 5 and 6 which came up in

November 2005, February 2006 and 2007 respectively, and reduced

exploratory efforts due to rumors of the proposed Petroleum Industry Bill,

amongst others.

Some barriers to the exploitation of the nations huge natural gas reserves

are:

Resources are in a remote location

The major potential market of power is in a state of stagnation

Limited infrastructure to transport the gas beyond the current

locations of Lagos and Port Harcourt

High levels of initial investment required

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Poor investment climate due to lack of a proper consistent legal, fiscal

and approval framework.

Summarily, an increase in the nations reserves base would be spurred by

favorable fiscal policies by the government. This is certain to attract

investors.

4.2 GAS RESERVES DECLINE

The nations oil & gas reserves are declining by as much as 12% per annum,

with production from onshore and shallow waters oil fields having reached

their peaks said Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison Madueke (Gbogbo-Bala,

2011). The decline is attributed to production, amidst zero gas exploration.

The gas produced is either re-injected, flared or utilized in the nations

domestic gas market or export-oriented projects. In 2000, Nigerian gas

production amounted to some 4.6Bcfd with some 55% being flared and the

balance split between re-injection, NLNG feedstock, internal fuel usage and

a small percentage marketed as LPG (WB NSGMP, 2004). The figure below

indicate the dry natural gas production and consumption in Nigeria 2000-

2011(Fig 3), the projected gas production (Fig 4) and the same projected

volume split between AG and NAG (Fig 5). What becomes immediately

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noticeable is that if the overall utilization issue of gas is not addressed now

the flaring will get worse as more AG is expected.

Figure 3: Dry Natural Gas Production and Consumption in Nigeria 2000-2011

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Figure 4: Gas Production ProjectionsSource: World Bank Strategic Gas Master Plan 2004

Figure 5: Gas Production Projections for AG and NAGSource: World Bank Strategic Gas Master Plan 2004

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4.2.1 Gas Flaring

The issue of gas flaring is one whose persistence in Nigeria is disturbing. In

2004, the Nigerian Government contracted the World Bank to design a

strategic gas plan for the nation. This was due to seven (7) project proposals

presented to it by IOCs in line with a well publicized stipulated deadline for

gas flaring, 2008. Five years past the deadline and flaring still persists. IOCs

like SPDC still flare a greater percentage of produced AG when their nation

UK, has a zero flaring policy. The WBNSGP states that Nigerian flares 2.5

BCFD resulting to an annual revenue loss of US$2.5 billion, amounting to

US$50 billion over 20 years. This figure is enough to settle the nations

foreign debts of about 31 billion US Dollars.

The persistence of the IOCs to flare gas has further bolstered the question,

is the Nigeria Oil Industry controlled by the FG on by the IOCs? Nigerian

government enacted a law Associated Gas Reinjection Act in 1979 which

allowed some conditions for specific exemption of the payment of a fee of

US $0.003 per MMCF with effect from 1984 which increased to US $0.07

per MMCF in 1988 and in January 2008 to US$3.5 per MCF of gas flared

(Ojide et al, 2012). Still, approximately 75% (by 1998), 63% (by 2000) and

24.30% (by 2010) of the total gas output were flared (Ojide et al, 2012). It is

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reported that Nigeria flares enough gas to double the power produced in sub-

saharan Africa excluding South Africa (Ojide et al, 2012).

However, noteworthy is the decline in flaring over the years even though the

zero flaring deadline of 2008 is long gone. This decline could be attributed

to improved gas distribution networks across the nation and the

commissioning of more gas utilization projects.

Figure 5: Top 5 Gas Flaring Countries 2010

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4.2.2 Domestic Gas Market

The Nigeria Gas Company (NGC), a subsidiary of NNPC is in charge of

national gas supplies for power generation, either as source of fuel or as

feedstock to cement and fertilizer plants, glass, food and beverages,

aluminum smelting, petrochemical industries, among others. The most

prominent and promising member of this family is the power industry. The

figures below indicate projections of consumption for some of these

sections.

Figure 6: Gas Consumption Projections for Future Gas Power Plants

Source: World Bank Strategic Gas Master Plan 2004

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Figure 7: ALSCON Gas Consumption


Figure 8: Power Demand Projection for Nigeria



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Other proposed projects are the GTL projects

- Chevron producing Nigeria (CPN) 35000 bpd GTL Plant at

Escravos (Consuming 0.35 BCfd)

- ExxonMobil (MPN) 87,000bpd GTL Plant on Bonny Island

(Consuming 0.82Bcfd)

4.2.3 Export Oriented Projects

For the International market, NNPC and its Joint Venture partners are

currently embarking on several gas utilization projects, some of which are

given in the table below:

Table 2 Export-oriented projects in Nigeria

Project Location Product Year Active Gas/Condensate

consumptionNLNG (6trains) Bonny LNG, LPG,

Condensate

1999 3.5Bcfd

Brass (2 trains) LNG, LPG,

NGL

2011

Ok LNG (4 trains) Olokola LNG, LPG 2012/2013 4.5MMcfd

Oso NGL Oso NGL 1998 110,000bpd

West Africa Gas

Pipeline

Nigeria, Togo,

Benin and

Ghana

Gas 2011 0.17Bcf/d

Trans-Sahara Gas

Pipeline

Nigeria-

Algeria

Gas - 2Bcf/d

Escravos Gas project LPG 2006

Belema Gas Injection 80MMcf/d

Odigbo Node Gas

Project (Supply

113MMMcf/d

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ALSCON)

Others are Ekpe Gas compression projects, Oso 2Y2 Project, Odidi AGG

Project Cawthorne Channel Gas Injection Project.

5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Nigerias previous foremost customer, US, has decreased their import of

Nigerias LNG to less than 5%. Japan has tripled her demand owing to the

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Fukushima incident. It is only a matter of time before these problems are

resolved, or other customers decrease their demand in search of more

economic energy sources. As such, Nigeria, as a nation, needs to take

advantage of the present economic condition fast. Just because we have

enough gas reserves to last for 109 years does not necessarily mean we sit

back, fold our arms and watch the clock tick.

Also, the domestic gas utilization projects should be pursued aggressively.

Many do not realize that power generation is the pillar of tremendous

economic growth. These projects, alongside their export-oriented projects

are expected to help put an end to gas flaring, our wealth in flames.

There exists a strategic Gas Plan for this country. The authors have reviewed

and strongly recommend that it be re-adopted as a tool/guideline to

improving the nations exploitation of its natural gas reserves.

REFERENCES

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7.0 APPENDIX

Nigeria Reserves and Production Summary

Table 5.1 Nigeria Reserves

(Source World Bank Strategic Gas Master plan For Nigeria 2004)

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Nigeria's Gas and Gas-liquid Reserves

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Transcript of Nigeria's Gas and Gas-liquid Reserves