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Nigeria

Acknowledgments

The (I)NDC Content Briefs were produced by the Climate Policy

Team of the World Bank Climate Change Group. The team was led

by Sebastian Wienges and Ana Bucher under the supervision of

Stephen Alan Hammer. Detail analysis of country (I)NDC was

provided by Tom Witt, Jiawei Song, Karan Chouksey (mitigation

components), Yin Qiu, Yunziyi Lang, and Prajwal Baral (adaptation

components). The team is grateful for all comments and

suggestions received from regional and sector specialists

regarding the presentation and synthesis of relevant information.

© 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433, U.S.A. Internet: www.worldbank.org

Climate Policy Team | World Bank Group

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA | Nigeria | (Intended) Nationally Determined Contribution

Introduction In response to a growing interest in understanding (Intended) Nationally DeterminedContributions ((I)NDCs) and with regard to the ultimate goal of supporting countries'implementation of their national climate targets, the World Bank Climate Policy Team (WBCPT) has

reviewed all developing countries (I)NDCs' submitted to the UNFCCC. The (I)NDC Content Brief

aims to provide a summary analysis of existing and instead country mitigation and adaptation

policies and plans, commitments and targets, implementation strategies and sector priorities,

associated costs and conditionalities, and stated gaps and needs, among other issues.

The (I)NDC content briefs are created solely on the basis of information from submitted(I)NDCs and makes no inferences about robustness, quality, or viability of intended policiesor actions.

The (I)NDCs review will help implementing organizations like the World Bank Group (WBG) identify

and familiarize with a range of country priorities in terms of sectoral engagement, and needs in

terms of capacity building, technology transfer, and financing. Based on this comprehensive

mapping exercise, the WBG will develop a useful, easytouse, and interactive database and briefs

of all (I)NDCs to inform a wide range of WBG initiatives and client engagement processes, including

the development of Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCDs) and Country Partnership Frameworks

(CPFs), and at a later stage respond to the more specific requests from all WBG Global Practices

(GPs), regions, and country units for the identification of potential development opportunities,

analytical studies and technical assistance to support countries' implementation of planned policies

and actions. Indepth summaries of (I)NDCs by sectors and regions will be prepared at a later stage.

In regards to Adaptation, although no global adaptation mechanism is established, the ParisAgreement parties are required to engage in adaptation planning and implementation of actions

which include preparation of adaptation plans. The Adaptation section of a large number of

submitted (I)NDCs, aims to increase development planning and scale the ability of countries to

adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse

gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten sustainable development. In

addition to requested finance, the implementation of country commitments is largely tied to

significant amounts of external assistance to support development and execution of adaptation

plans. Although subsequent (I)NDCs are not explicitly required to have an adaptation component,

the process will ensure increased resilience is recognized under the UNFCCC and climate finance

mobilization is enhanced with an aim to achieve a balance between adaptation and mitigation flows.



Table of Contents

I Overall Planning and Preparation Process

II Mitigation

Economywide Targets

Economywide Policies

Mitigation Actions and Policies

III Adaptation

Adaptation Targets

Adaptation Context

Adaptation Actions and Policies

Acronyms

BAU Business as Usual NAMA Nationally Appropriate MitigationActions

CIFPPCR Climate Investment Funds PilotProgram for Climate Resilience

NAP National Adaptation Plan

DRM Disaster Risk Management NAPA National Adaptation Programmesof Action

INDC Intended Nationally DeterminedContributions

REDD+ Reducing emissions fromdeforestation and forestdegradation and the role ofconservation, sustainablemanagement of forests andenhancement of forest carbonstocks in developing countries

LEDS Low Emission DevelopmentStrategy

LULUCF Land Use and Land Use Changeand Forestry

|

|

|



Overall Planning and Preparation Process

How reliable is the prioritization of the (I)NDC? How serious is thegovernment about implementing policies and actions to achieve the (I)NDCtargets?

Political decision of adoption of INDC at:Head of state level

Interministerial level

Parliament

Ministry Level

Technical development of INDC through a participatory processStakeholder involvement

Multisector commision

Have development benefits been assessed and considered in the planningprocess?

Are there climate policies and actions already in place/under development?

LEDS

NAMAS

NAPA


$142.00 (in Billion USD) TOTAL COST OF IMPLEMENTATION (mitigation and adaptation)


Existing policies:The National Agricultural Resilience Framework (NARF 2014)

National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action for Climate Change Nigeria (NASPA-CCN)

Nigeria Climate Change Policy Response and Strategy

Has the INDC development been supported by a development partner?Technical support

Financial support EU THROUGH UNDP

Implementation Plans and Needs

Specific requests for international provision of means of implementation:Technology Transfer YES

Financial support YES

Capacity Building YES

Does the INDC intend the private sector to be involved in theimplementation of the NDC?

Are carbon pricing/international market mechanisms intended?YES

Are there any barriers identified?

Link list:• Nigeria INDC Factsheet (projected per capita emissions): http://www.climateenergycollege.net/files/site1/factsheets/Nigeria_INDCFactsheet_UoMPRIMAP_GWPAR4.pdf


http://www.climate-energy-college.net/files/site1/factsheets/Nigeria_INDCFactsheet_UoM-PRIMAP_GWPAR4.pdf

-20%

n/a

additional -25% (equivalent to 2 tCO2e per capita)


Mitigation

ECONOMY-WIDE TARGETS

Conditionality: INDC page link

Unconditional part of mitigation target:Estimated costs for implementation:

Conditional part of mitigation target:Estimated costs for implementation:

Coverage of Gases: CO , N O, CH

Other Targets:

POLICIES:

TARGET YEAR

2030TARGET TYPE

-45%Relative Emission Reduction

Compared to BAU (%)

N/A(in Billion USD)

COST OFIMPLEMENTATION

TARGET YEAR

2030TARGET TYPE

0.491 kg CO2eTargeted Emissions Intensity perGDP (tCO2eq per year per GDP)

N/A(in Billion USD)


TARGET YEAR

2030TARGET TYPE

2Targeted Emissions Intensity perCapita (tCO2eq per year per

capita)

N/A(in Billion USD)


2 2 4

Standards for imported equipment will be considered, in particular in the field of refrigerationand air conditioning

Standards for imported equipment will be considered, in particular in the field of refrigerationand air conditioning where there is a risk of dumping of HCFC and HFC installations that arebeing phased out in OECD countries



MITIGATION ACTIONS AND POLICIESENERGY Plans:

Energy: General P. 11

Renewable Energy P. 3

Gas P. 11

Energy Efficiency P. 3

Supply-Side Efficiency: Grid/Energy Loss Reduction P. 3

Supply-Side Efficiency: Power Generation Efficiency Improvement: Gas-Powered CombinedCycle P. 11

Gas Flaring

Renewable Energy: Solar: Off-Grid

Renewable Energy: Biofuels


http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=11http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=3http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=11http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=3http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=3http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=11

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a


MITIGATION ACTIONS AND POLICIES

GASPlans: INDC page link

Use of natural gas rather than liquid fuels P. 11

Estimated total costs for implementation:

Capacity building needs:

Technology needs:

Unconditional part of mitigation target:

Estimated costs for implementation:

Conditional part of mitigation target:


Emission reduction potential:


http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=11

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a



ENERGY

EFFICIENCYTargets: INDC page link

2% energy efficiency improvement per year P. 2



Technology needs:








n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

102 MtCO2e



SUPPLY-SIDE

EFFICIENCY:

POWER

GENERATION

EFFICIENCY

IMPROVEMENT:

GAS-POWERED

COMBINED CYCLE

Plans: INDC page link

Multi-cycle power stations P. 11



Technology needs:








n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

64 MtCO2e



GAS FLARINGTargets: INDC page link

End gas flaring by 2030 P. 13



Technology needs:








n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a



RENEWABLE

ENERGY: SOLAR:

OFF-GRID

Targets: INDC page link

13 GW of PV P. 2



Technology needs:








n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a



RENEWABLE

ENERGY: BIOFUELSTargets: INDC page link

Blending 10% by volume of Fuel-Ethanol with Gasoline (E10); Blending 20%by volume of Biodiesel with Petroleum Diesel (B20) for Transportation Fuels

P. 11



Technology needs:









MITIGATION ACTIONS AND POLICIESLULUCF/FORESTRY Plans:

LULUCF/Forestry: General P. 3




MITIGATION ACTIONS AND POLICIESTRANSPORT Plans:

Transport: General P. 2

Urban Transport P. 11

Road Sector P. 11

Rail P. 11

Aviation P. 11

Freight Vehicles P. 11


http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=2http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=11http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=11http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=11http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=11http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria's%20INDC_271115.pdf#page=11

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a



ROAD SECTORPlans: INDC page link

Upgrading roads P. 11



Technology needs:








n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a



RAILPlans: INDC page link

Moving freight to rail; shift from air to high speed rail P. 11



Technology needs:








n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a



AVIATIONPlans: INDC page link

Shift from air to high speed rail P. 11



Technology needs:








n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a



FREIGHT VEHICLESPlans: INDC page link

Moving freight to rail P. 11



Technology needs:









MITIGATION ACTIONS AND POLICIESINDUSTRIES Plans:

Industries: General P. 11

Air Conditioners and Refrigerators

HFCs



n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a



AIR CONDITIONERS

AND

REFRIGERATORS

Policies: INDC page link

Standards for imported equipment will be considered, in particular in thefield of refrigeration and air conditioning



Technology needs:







n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a



HFCSPolicies: INDC page link

Standards for imported equipment will be considered, in particular in thefield of refrigeration and air conditioning where there is a risk of dumping ofHCFC and HFC installations that are being phased out in OECD countries



Technology needs:







N/A

N/A


Adaptation

ADAPTATION TARGETS

ADAPTATION CONTEXT

Existing National Development/Resilience Policies and Plans

National Communications

NAPs

NAPAS

CIF-PPCRs

Sectoral StrategiesTHE NATIONAL AGRICULTURALRESILIENCE FRAMEWORK (NARF2014)

Cross-cutting

NIGERIA CLIMATE CHANGE POLICYRESPONSE AND STRATEGYNATIONAL ADAPTATION STRATEGYAND PLAN OF ACTION FORCLIMATE CHANGE NIGERIA(NASPA-CCN)

Conditionality:

Unconditional part of adaptation implementation

Conditional part of adaptation implementation

Conditional upon international provision of meansof implementation

YES

TARGET YEAR

2030N/A

(in Billion USD)



n/a

n/a

Total Implementation Cost for UnconditionalActions: n/a

Total Implementation Cost for ConditionalActions: n/a

Technology Transfer:

Capacity Building: n/a


ADAPTATION ACTIONS AND POLICIES

HEALTH

HEALTH SERVICES

AND ASSESSMENT

Policy: INDC page link

National Health Policy

Actions:

CONDITIONAL ACTIONS: INDC page link

Adapt public service facilities, including school buildings, to withstandstorms and excess heatUndertake research to better understand the health impacts of climatechange in Nigeria

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation

Total Implementation Cost per Subsector:

Implementation Needs:


n/a

n/a







DISEASE

SURVEILLANCE

AND CONTROL

Actions:


Strengthen disease prevention and treatment for those diseases expectedto increase as a result of climate changeEstablish early warning and health surveillance programmes

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







AWARENESS

RAISING AND

BEHAVIOR

CHANGE

Actions:


Promote and facilitate the adoption of practices and technologies thatreduce exposure and health impacts from extreme heat

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







ENVIRONMENT

ECOSYSTEM AND

BIODIVERSITY


National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP)

Actions:


Support recommended climate change adaptation policies andprogrammes in sectors that affect biodiversity conservation, includingagriculture, forestry, energy and livelihoodsSupport and implement programmes for alternative livelihoods in orderto reduce unsustainable resource use that contributes to loss ofbiodiversity

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







WATERSHED AND

RIVER BASIN

MANAGEMENT

Actions:


Initiate a national programme for integrated water resource managementat the watershed level

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







DISASTER RISK

MANAGEMENT (DRM)

DISASTER

PREPAREDNESS


National Policy on Erosion and Flood Control

Actions:


Encourage relocation of high risk industries, facilities and marketsStrengthen individual and community-based emergency preparednessand response capacity in high risk areas

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







MONITORING AND

EVALUATION

SYSTEM

Actions:


Undertake risk assessment & risk reduction measures to increaseresilience of the energy and transportation sectorsStrengthen capacity to anticipate disasters and impacts on internalmigration and security

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







DISASTER RELIEF

AND RECOVERYActions:


Encourage informal savings and insurance schemes, and arrange for theavailability of medium term credit

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







WATER

WATER QUALITY


National Water Policy

Actions:


Intensify programmes to survey water quality and quantity for both groundand surface water

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







WATER SUPPLYActions:


Implement programmes to sustainably extend and improve water supplyand water management infrastructure

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







WATER EFFICIENCYActions:


Explore water efficiency and management of water demand, particularly inSahel and Sudan savanna areas

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







LULUCF/FORESTRY

SUSTAINABLE

FOREST

MANAGEMENT


National Forest Policy

Actions:


Strengthen the implementation of the national Community-BasedForest Resources Management ProgrammeDevelop and maintain a frequent forest inventory system to facilitatemonitoring of forest statusInitiate a research programme on a range of climate change-relatedtopics, including long term impacts of climatic shifts on closed forestsImprove management of forest reserves and enforce low impact loggingpractice

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







REFORESTATIONActions:


Provide extension services to CSOs, communities and the private sector tohelp establish and restore community and private natural forests,plantations and nurseries

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







AGRICULTURE

CLIMATE SMART

AGRICULTURE


The National Agricultural Resilience Framework (NARF 2014)

Actions:


Provide early warning/meteorological forecasts and related informationFocus on agricultural impacts in the savanna zones, particularly the Sahel,the areas that are likely to be most affected by the impacts of climatechange

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







IRRIGATIONActions:


Increase use of irrigation systems that use low amounts of waterIncrease rainwater & sustainable ground water harvesting for use inagriculture

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







FISHERIES AND

AQUACULTUREActions:


Enhance artisanal fisheries and encourage sustainable aquaculture asadaptation options for fishing communities

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







LAND AND SOIL

MANAGEMENTActions:


Adopt better soil management practicesIncrease planting of native vegetation cover and promotion of re-greeningefforts

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







CROPSActions:


Increase access to drought resistant crops and livestock feedsIntensify crop production in place of slash and burn

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







LIVESTOCKActions:


Diversify livestock and improve range managementIntensify livestock production in place of slash and burn

P. 20

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation





n/a

n/a







ENERGY

POWER SYSTEM

PLANNING

Actions:


Develop and diversify secure energy backup systems to ensure both civilsociety and security forces have access to emergency energy supply

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







TRANSPORT

INFRASTRUCTURE

AND ROADS

Actions:


Include increased protective margins in construction and placement oftransportation and communications infrastructure (i.e. higher standardsand specifications)Strengthen existing transportation and communications infrastructure, inpart through early efforts to identify and implement all possible ‘noregrets’ actionsDevelop and diversify secure communication backup systems to ensureboth civil society and security forces have access to emergencycommunication methods

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







EDUCATION

EDUCATION:

GENERAL

Actions:


Develop skills-based curriculum in subjects like science, geography, socialstudies, language arts, environmental education and technology that willempower children to better respond to the threats of climate changeTrain teachers on climate change adaptation teaching strategies andtechniques at pre-primary, primary, secondary and tertiary levels ofeducation in NigeriaProvide evidence-based information to raise awareness and triggerclimate change adaptation actions

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







URBAN

SUSTAINABLE

URBAN PLANNING

Actions:


Discourage building/urban encroachment into vulnerable areas, high riskzones & low lying areas.Discourage housing and settlement practices that are maladaptive in theface of climate change.Strengthen rural settlements in order to reduce migration

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







CROSS-CUTTING AREA

CAPACITY

BUILDING AND

KNOWLEDGE

TRANSFER

Actions:


Increase knowledge and awareness of climate change risks andopportunitiesIncorporate climate change into ongoing business planningPromote and market emerging opportunities from climate changeAssist communities to reduce vulnerability through participatoryplanning of land use and housing

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




n/a

n/a







CLIMATE SERVICESActions:


Adapt to our national, the World Meteorological Organization- GlobalFramework for Climate Services (WMO-GFCS) to Nigeria's needs (NationalFramework for Application of Climate Services - NFACS) to reducevulnerability of communities through enhanced advo

Funder

Implementing Agency

Cost Estimation




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