1

Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated

Private Consumption Indicators

%YoY 2017 20182018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov DecP %MoM sa

Non-durable index 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.4 -0.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 1.0

Semi-durable index 0.7 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.5 3.9 3.5 2.5 -0.1

Durable index 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.5 10.6 6.8 7.7 2.6 -2.2

Service index 7.1 5.1 6.9 3.4 4.5 2.3 2.5 0.5E 1.1E

(less) Net tourist spending

17.6 -0.6 7.1 -7.7 -10.3 -5.1 -1.3 -5.5 -1.2

PCI 2.2 4.5 3.9 5.1 5.7 4.6 3.8 3.5 1.1

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index

Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

70

80

90

100

110

120130

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Service Index sa, 3mma

Non-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, 3mmaFuel Index, saFuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Semi-durable Index sa,3mma

Durable Index sa, 3mma

Jan 2014 = 100

2

405060708090

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Total

Current

Next 6 months

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.0

IndexJan 2014 = 100

P = Preliminary Data

Farm Income Real Income

Note : * 1) Calculated from retail funds transfer transactions obtained

from the National ITMX and BOT’s payment systems data as the value of

total salary tranfered divided by volume of salary transfer.2) Nov 2018 figures were estimated by the BOT

Contribution to Growth: Farm Income%YoY

Sources: UTCC, NSO, OAE, National ITMX Bulk Payment, calculated by BOT

1.4

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan2017

Apr Jul2017

Oct Jan2018

Apr Jul2018

Oct

ขาวเปลือก ออย มันสําปะหลัง ยางพารา

ผลไม ปาลมน้ํามัน ปศุสัตว กุง

อื่นๆ รวมสินคาเกษตร

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Transfer of salary through FI sa, 3mma (Baht/person)*Transfer of salary through FI saTotal Non-Farm Income sa, 3mmaFarm Income sa, 3mmaFarm Income sa

(%YoY) 2017 20182018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec

Nominal farm

incomeP4.0 -0.4 2.2 -1.7 -1.7 -1.2 -6.0 1.4

Agricultural

productionP7.0 5.5 12.2 0.4 1.3 -0.1 -4.2 3.1

Agricultural price -2.8 -5.7 -8.9 -2.1 -3.0 -1.2 -1.8 -1.6

3

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2011)P = Preliminary data

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw Materials

Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT

MPI Classified by Export Share

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

(%YoY)Share2011

2017 2018

2018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov DecP %MoM

sa

Food & Beverages 20.2 3.6 2.5 2.8 2.0 -0.5 4.5 3.9 1.8 -14.2

Automotive 16.9 3.6 8.8 10.6 7.0 1.8 12.4 6.4 9.1 1.6

- Passenger Cars 3.4 1.8 7.3 6.4 8.1 4.2 12.0 3.1 17.2 5.3

- Commercial Vehicles 6.3 1.1 10.5 12.3 8.8 4.8 12.9 5.9 6.9 1.3

- Engine 6.3 7.0 10.7 14.8 7.0 -0.8 15.0 11.4 7.8 -0.7

Rubbers & Plastics 10.0 7.1 -5.8 -2.5 -8.8 -2.5 -14.7 -11.9 -17.6 -0.4

Chemicals 8.2 2.4 4.9 8.4 1.5 3.0 0.1 -2.2 0.8 4.1

IC & Semiconductors 7.5 5.5 5.3 3.3 7.3 11.2 3.3 6.4 7.0 0.7

Textiles & Apparels 5.5 -5.1 -4.3 -6.2 -2.4 -2.7 -2.1 -4.0 0.0 1.7

Cement & Construction 4.7 -1.7 4.0 3.0 5.0 5.8 4.1 3.0 1.0 -1.1

Electrical Appliances 4.1 -6.9 1.1 -0.2 2.9 2.5 3.3 -0.1 4.4 1.0

HDD 3.2 14.0 4.0 13.4 -3.9 4.4 -11.5 -7.2 -21.8 -10.6

Petroleum 3.1 5.0 10.5 11.7 9.4 10.0 8.8 10.2 6.6 -2.4

Others 16.5 -0.1 -2.0 -0.5 -3.7 -6.5 -0.7 -3.7 -0.9 -1.4

MPI 100.0 2.5 2.8 3.9 1.7 0.9 2.4 0.9 0.8 -3.1

MPI sa ∆% from last

period100.0 - - 0.5 2.9 1.5 1.9 1.6 -3.1 -

Capacity Utilization

(SA)- 67.1 68.9 68.7 69.1 68.7 69.5 70.4 67.8 -

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul

Export<30%30%<Export<60%

Export>60%

4

Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

70

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Construction Materials Index

Permitted Construction Area (RHS)

Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100) Index sa

(Jan 2014 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

% YoY 2017 2018

2018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4P Nov DecP %MoMsa

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -0.8 -2.9 0.8 -6.6 -3.7 -9.4E -8.4 -12.8E -5.0E

Construction Materials Index -0.9 2.7 -0.7 6.3 4.7 7.9 7.6 2.6 -6.6

Real Imports of Capital Goods 3.4 2.0 3.0 1.0 -0.6 2.7 6.5 -1.2 -6.4

Real Domestic Machinery Sales 1.1 6.5 6.4 6.6 8.4 4.9E 3.7 5.5E 5.0E

Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment

5.7 5.7 4.9 6.6 6.3 6.9 2.6 11.8 -0.1

PII 1.6 3.0 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 1.9 -0.7

Capacity Utilization (SA) - - 68.7 69.1 68.7 69.5 70.4 67.8 -

Private Investment Indicators

Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value.

Sources of Corporate Financing Bn baht

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17M

ay-1

7Ju

n-17

Jul-1

7Au

g-17

Sep-

17O

ct-1

7N

ov-1

7De

c-17

Jan-

18Fe

b-18

Mar

-18

Apr-

18M

ay-1

8Ju

n-18

Jul-1

8Au

g-18

Sep-

18O

ct-1

8N

ov-1

8De

c-18

Business Credits (SA) Equity

Debt 3MMA

5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Total China (share 28%)Malaysia (share 10%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 30%)Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%)

Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data

2017 20182018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov DecP

No. of tourists (’000) 35,592 38,277 19,482 18,796 9,060 9,735 3,178 3,846

%YoY 9.4 7.5 12.2 3.1 1.9 4.3 4.5 7.7

%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - - -3.0 3.2 4.2 5.6

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Tourists Classified by Nationality

Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in 2017

6

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data

Thai Export to Major Destinations

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Asian Export Performance

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)Ex.gold

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

EU

Japan*

China

ASEAN5

ME

TH ex.Gold

TW

ID ex.Oil & Gas

SG

MY

CNKR

* ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods

US

Dec 2018 = 19.5 Bn USD

Ex. Gold = 19.1 Bn USD

Nov 2018 = 21.3 Bn USD

Ex. Gold = 21.0 Bn USD

Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.

%YoYShare

20172017 2018P

2018P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec%MoM

sa

Agriculture 7.6 20.2 0.1 3.0 -2.8 1.3 -6.5 -14.9 -12.5 -6.7

Fishery 0.9 4.1 -6.5 -1.4 -10.9 -15.4 -6.2 -7.9 -4.6 4.0

Manufacturing 87.5 10.2 8.4 12.8 4.4 6.7 2.1 -0.3 -0.9 -1.5

Agro-manufacturing

products 12.3 12.6 6.3 8.5 4.2 5.8 2.7 -0.2 -1.6 -0.2

Electronics 15.0 14.0 5.0 12.4 -1.5 3.6 -6.2 -7.7 -12.0 -4.9

Electrical Appliances 5.6 6.2 1.7 6.6 -3.5 -3.4 -3.6 -4.7 -5.6 -0.4

Automotive 15.0 6.3 8.0 15.3 1.5 6.2 -2.9 -4.7 2.0 3.1

Machinery & Equipment 8.7 7.2 6.9 10.3 3.7 4.1 3.2 0.7 -0.7 0.5

Petroleum Related 11.5 19.0 22.0 26.5 18.0 19.7 16.4 15.9 7.4 -4.3

Total (BOP basis) 100.0 9.8 7.7 13.5 2.4 2.6 2.3 0.2 -1.6 -1.2

Ex. Gold 10.9 8.5 14.0 3.4 5.4 1.4 -0.6 -2.0 -1.6

Ex. Gold+Petroleum

related 9.9 6.7 12.4 1.4 3.5 -0.6 -2.9 -3.3 -1.2

Export Value

7

Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.

40

60

80

100

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Value Quantity Price

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data

Dec 2018 = 17.1 Bn USD

Ex. Gold = 16.7 Bn USD

Nov 2018 = 20.7 Bn USD

Ex. Gold = 20.0 Bn USD

%YoYShare

20172017 2018P

2018P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec%MoM

sa

Consumer 10.3 7.5 12.2 16.6 8.2 7.1 9.2 9.1 2.2 -2.2

Raw mat & Interm 53.3 15.7 18.8 19.5 18.1 21.3 14.9 25.8 2.6 -12.2

o/w Fuel 13.1 26.1 40.1 36.9 43.0 53.1 34.6 76.8 12.5 -24.4

o/w Raw mat & Interm

ex. Fuel 40.2 12.6 11.8 14.1 9.6 11.6 7.6 9.4 -1.4 -5.8

Capital 25.4 8.5 1.0 5.6 -3.2 -5.9 -0.6 4.2 -6.3 -13.3

Others 11.1 27.9 9.0 15.1 4.4 35.3 -21.5 -6.5 -51.2 -16.2

Total (BOP basis) 100.0 13.2 14.3 16.6 12.1 17.0 7.5 16.2 -6.7 -10.6

Ex. Gold - 10.7 14.9 17.1 13.0 14.2 11.9 19.4 2.5 -9.3

Ex. Gold&Fuel - 8.3 10.4 13.6 7.4 7.6 7.3 9.6 0.4 -5.3

Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.

Import Value

8

Sources: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2016-18 FY2018 FY2019

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2016-18 FY2018 FY2019

Dec

4.0%

Dec

-14.2%

Billion baht

Central Government Current Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)Billion baht

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets,

except loan repayments

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)

Billion Baht FY2017 FY2018FY2018 FY2019P

Q3 Q4 Q1 Nov Dec

Revenue 2,354 2,513 758 671 613 200 205

(%YoY) (-2.4) (6.8) (8.7) (8.9) (12.4) (30.5) (0.8)

Expenditure1/ 2,795 2,882 731 606 924 226 269

(%YoY) (2.2) (3.1) (14.0) (2.3) (-2.2) (-1.9) (-6.8)

Budgetary B/L -441 -368 28 65 -311 -26 -64

Non-Budgetary B/L 35 -28 53 -70 -26 6 -6

Cash B/L (CG) -406 -396 81 -5 -337 -19 -70

Net Financing 489 506 83 212 84 66 22

Treasury B/L 524 633 427 633 380 427 380

9

Labor Market Indicators

% 2017 20182018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec

Unemployment rate

(sa)1.2 1.1

1.2

(1.2)

1.1

(1.0)

1.0

(1.0)

0.9

(1.0)

1.0

(1.0)

0.9

(1.1)

Employed persons

(%YoY)-0.6 1.1 -0.2 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.8

Underemployment

rate0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6

EmploymentThousand persons

sa, 3mmaThousand persons

sa, 3mma

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Thou

sand

s

Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS)Agriculture (sa) (RHS)

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT

Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

Raw food (15.69%)

Energy (11.75%)

Core (72.56%)

Dec0.36%

Dec0.68%

10

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2017P 2018P2018P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov DecE

Trade Balance 34.2 23.6 15.8 7.8 3.4 4.4 0.7 2.5

Exports (f.o.b.) 235.3 253.4 127.5 125.9 63.4 62.5 21.3 19.5

%YoY 9.8 7.7 13.5 2.4 2.6 2.3 0.2 -1.6

Imports (f.o.b.) 201.1 229.8 111.7 118.1 60.0 58.1 20.7 17.1

%YoY 13.2 14.3 16.6 12.1 17.0 7.5 16.2 -6.7

Net Services, Income & Transfers 16.1 14.1 9.2 4.9 0.8 4.1 1.0 2.5

Current Account 50.2 37.7 25.0 12.7 4.2 8.5 1.6 5.0

Capital and Financial Account -12.6 -22.2 -13.8 -8.5 -4.2 -4.3 -0.3 -2.0

Overall Balance 26.0 7.3 7.6 -0.4 0.3 -0.7 0.4 -0.2

11

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Millions of USD 2017P 2018P 2018P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov DecE

1. Assets -35,112 -26,902 -11,446 -15,456 -9,066 -6,390 -2,746 -2,998

TDI -18,632 -18,133 -10,521 -7,611 -5,563 -2,049 -680 -815

- Equity -9,301 -7,722 -3,190 -4,532 -3,331 -1,201 -511 -311Thai Portfolio investment -11,551 -2,204 -430 -1,773 -1,358 -415 -309 445

- Equity security investment -7,668 -4,696 -4,391 -304 -282 -23 559 -148

- Debt security investment -3,882 2,492 3,961 -1,469 -1,077 -392 -868 593

Loans -827 -1,217 -1,047 -170 566 -736 -37 -664Other Investments -4,102 -5,348 553 -5,901 -2,712 -3,190 -1,720 -1,964

- Trade credits -6,467 -2,727 -2,791 64 -659 723 723 -12. Liabilities 22,682 5,282 -1,697 6,979 4,873 2,106 2,411 991 FDI 8,046 12,462 6,986 5,476 3,176 2,300 797 727

- Equity 5,122 6,269 2,826 3,443 1,819 1,624 470 619 Foreign Portfolio investment 9,401 -3,228 -6,545 3,318 2,583 735 2,145 -452

- Equity security investment 598 -7,100 -4,632 -2,468 -262 -2,206 -360 -124

- Debt security investment 8,802 3,873 -1,913 5,786 2,845 2,940 2,505 -328

Loans 5,240 1,962 -783 2,745 439 2,306 349 2,314 Other Investments -4 -5,915 -1,355 -4,560 -1,326 -3,234 -880 -1,598

- Trade credits 3,783 -1,911 339 -2,250 -675 -1,575 -796 -1,323

Total Financial Flows (1+2) -12,429 -21,620 -13,143 -8,477 -4,194 -4,284 -334 -2,007

Net Financial Flows

12

Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Q12

018

Q22

018

Q32

018

Q42

018

Nov

-18

Dec-

18

Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes

Dec 2018E

3.3

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

IDR GBP PHP INR SGD TWD KRW VND EUR MYR THB CNY JPY

end of Dec 18 compared to end of Nov 1824 Jan 19 compared to end of Dec 18

Exchange Rate Movement

(Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD)

% p.a.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

30-D

ec-1

624

-Jan

-17

15-F

eb-1

78-

Mar

-17

29-M

ar-1

724

-Apr

-17

17-M

ay-1

77-

Jun-

1728

-Jun

-17

20-J

ul-1

711

-Aug

-17

4-Se

p-17

25-S

ep-1

717

-Oct

-17

9-N

ov-1

730

-Nov

-17

25-D

ec-1

717

-Jan

-18

7-Fe

b-18

28-F

eb-1

822

-Mar

-18

17-A

pr-1

89-

May

-18

31-M

ay-1

821

-Jun

-18

12-J

ul-1

86-

Aug-

1828

-Aug

-18

18-S

ep-1

89-

Oct

-18

1-N

ov-1

822

-Nov

-18

17-D

ec-1

89-

Jan-

19

Latest data 24 Jan 2019

Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)

Index (Jan 2014 = 100)

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

NEER REER USDTHB

Jan 2019

(Average data

until 24 Jan 2019)THB Appreciation

Dec-18107.1

Jan-19116.3

Jan-19103.2