Nielsen - Economic Current_August_FINAL
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Transcript of Nielsen - Economic Current_August_FINAL
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October 2009
Todd Hale
James Russo
Jonathan Banks
Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
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Hong Kong
Taiwan
Chg vs.PreviousMonth
Italy
Spain
UnitedKingdom
Germany
India
Jul
09
Aug
09
Brazil
Canada
China
France
UnitedStates
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Aug
09
Mar
09
Apr
09
May
09
Jun
09
Jul
09Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers moving toStore Brands?
Are shoppers shifting tovalue channels?
Are retailers selling moreon promotion?
Are consumers shoppingmore frequently?
Are consumers spendingmore per trip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Negative:
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US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR TW HK IN CN
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers movingto Store Brands?
Are shoppers shiftingto value channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumersshopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more pertrip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Very Negative:
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Global Confidence &
Recession/Recovery Buzz
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Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
Oct 2008 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2009
63%
77%71%
66%
19%
23%
26% 26%
% ofglobal
HHs that
believethey are
in arecession
% of
globalHHs thatbelieve
they willbe out of arecessionin the next
12 mos
Global Households Mired in aRecession but Signs of Easing
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96
89
94
86
9997
94
8884
77
82
106
83
82
80
108
84
100
80
106105
95
101
98
70
80
90
100
110
Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09
Global Average US China
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey
Globally, consumer confidence increased 4 points.In China, consumer confidence increased 6 points.
Jul-09
Global confidence improving
from 1Q09 lows
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Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey*Total U.S. Food/Drug/Mass Merchandiser Stores (including Walmart)
100
83 8280 80
84
50
60
70
80
90
100
2nd Half '07 1st Half '08 2nd Half '08 1st Quart '09 2nd Quart '09 3rd Quart '09
NielsenConsumerSentiment
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
PercentChang
evsPreviousPeriod*
US sentiment US Unit Sales % change vs prior period
Correlating Sentiment to Sales:U.S Consumer Sentiment and Sales consistent
since 1Q09
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49
53
67 68 71
73 7475
77 78
84 84 85 8586
93 94 9496 96
100102
106 107108
115
120
101
0
25
50
75
100
125
JP KO FR TR TW UA ES GB DE IT US AR PL RU ZA HK CA TH MY SG NZ CN AE AU PH BR ID IN
Q2 Q3
Global average 86
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey
China remains to be one of the most confident markets,
Brazil and some Asia-pacific markets (Australia) improved the most
3Q09 Consumer Confidence
Index by Core Markets
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Consumer Confidence
48
28
32
25
22
21
18
10
47
33
31
30
27
26
24
20
10
31
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Putting into savings
Holidays / vacations
New clothes
Paying off debts / credit cards / loans
Out of home entertainment
Home improvements / decorating
New technology products
Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds
Retirement fund
%
1Q 09 3Q 09
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey,
Global average response to question: How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses
Global Consumers Focused onSavings and Moderate Return to
Discretionary Consumption
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Country Highlights &
Insights
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Sept08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan08
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers movingto Store Brands?
Are shoppers shiftingto value channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumersshopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more pertrip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative:
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Jul09
Sept08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Aug09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers moving toStore Brands?
Are shoppers shifting tovalue channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumers shoppingmore frequently?
Are consumers spendingmore per trip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative:
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Sept08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers movingto Store Brands?
Are shoppers shiftingto value channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumersshopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more pertrip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%Very Negative:
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Aug09
Sept08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers movingto Store Brands?
Are shoppers shiftingto value channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumersshopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more pertrip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%Very Negative:
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Sept08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers movingto Store Brands?
Are shoppers shiftingto value channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumersshopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more pertrip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%Very Negative:
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Sept08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers movingto Store Brands?
Are shoppers shiftingto value channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumersshopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more pertrip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%Very Negative:
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Aug09
Aug08
Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
Ma09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers movingto Store Brands?
Are shoppers shiftingto value channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumersshopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more pertrip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Spain Summary
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative:
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Jul09
Sept08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Aug09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers moving toStore Brands?
Are shoppers shifting tovalue channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumers shoppingmore frequently?
Are consumers spendingmore per trip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%Very Negative:
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Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan08
Feb08
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers movingto Store Brands? ~
Are shoppers shiftingto value channels? ~
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumersshopping more
frequently? ~Are consumers
spending more pertrip? ~
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%Very Negative:
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Aug09
Aug08
Sept 08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers movingto Store Brands?
Are shoppers shiftingto value channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumersshopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more pertrip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer
Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%Very Negative:
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Sep08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumersmoving to Store
Brands?
Are shoppers shiftingto value channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumersshopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more pertrip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer
Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%Very Negative:
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Aug08
Sept08
Oct08
Nov08
Dec08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May09
Jul09
Aug09
Nielsen Market IndexVolume*
Nielsen Market IndexValue**
Are consumers moving toStore Brands?
Are shoppers shifting tovalue channels?
Are retailers sellingmore on promotion?
Are consumers shoppingmore frequently?
Are consumers spendingmore per trip?
Nielsen GlobalConsumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%Very Negative:
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United States: James Russo, [email protected] Todd Hale, [email protected]
Western Europe: Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, [email protected]
Jonathan Banks, [email protected] Canada:
Carman Allison, [email protected]
Russia: Natalia Ignatyeva, [email protected]
India: Jayashree Janardhanan, [email protected]
Brazil: Margarita Zanella, [email protected] Tatiana Villarinho, [email protected]
China: Phoebe Lam, [email protected]
Taiwan: Cheryl Wen, [email protected]
Hong Kong Acky Chan, [email protected]
Nielsen Global Buzz: Chelsea Peters, [email protected] Shobhana Srinivasan, [email protected]
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