Nielsen 2012 extension_prog_dev

Georgia Family Statistics:Context for FACS Program Development

Robert B. NielsenDepartment of Housing & Consumer Economics

Housing and Demographic Research Center

Extension FACS Program Development ConferenceAthens, GA

October 2, 2012

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Outline

1. Families’ current social and economic context a.k.a. Death by 1,000 Slides

2. A quick demographic snapshot of Georgia Including selected statistics on each issue area

3. Challenges and opportunities ahead As reported in situation statements, logic

models, or trend statements

4. Conversation leading into the panel session

Prepared by Robert B. Nielsen, Ph.D.

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1. FAMILIES’ CURRENT SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONTEXT

Death by 1,000 slides


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My perspective…

Influential factors for families this century: Macro and microeconomic challenges

– A two-recession decade included the Great Recession; an unprecedented housing crisis; poverty rates not seen since 1960s

Increasing diversity– Increasingly multicultural society; “minority” births now majority

Terrorism, wars, and conflict – From 9/11 to the longest war in U.S. history to cultural conflicts

Rapid technological changes– Influences how consumers and families communicate, work, learn, recreate,

and consume (perhaps a panel conversation) Political changes

– Distrust of large institutions; cycles of optimism and pessimism; varying levels of excitement about new voters


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My perspective II…

Like most here, I view consumers and families from an ecological perspective.

Individual consumers and families are influenced by—but also influence—the persons, processes, contexts, and time in which they interact in their social, political, economic, and physical environments.

Still, where else would a family economist start but with income?


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Title

$45,973GA

http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/pdf/20120912_ip_%20slides_wplotpoints.pdf

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Income this Century

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$41,901$45,973

$54,841$50,054

Median Household Income 2000 to 2011: U.S. and Georgia

Source: Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States (P60-243); All values expressed in 2011 dollars


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By Your Own Bootstraps: 2010

The percentage of working-age adults who live in poverty was the highest its been since 1966 (13.7%)

The percentage of people who live in the suburbs who are poor was at the highest level since 1967 (11.8%)

If anyone can be expected to “pull themselves up by their own bootstraps” its these groups of Americans. Yet, they’re falling behind.


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GA18.4%


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Bishaw, A. (2011). Poverty 2009 and 2010. ACS Brief ACSBR/10-01. Available at http://www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/acsbr10-01.pdf

http://www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/acsbr10-01.pdf

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Poverty Rate Median Household IncomeFayette 6.7% $79,276

Forsyth (FACS) 7.2% $81,629

Oconee (FACS) 8.2% $76,298Cherokee 8.6% $63,520Columbia 8.8% $64,435Paulding 8.8% $61,496Harris 9.4% $62,264Clarke (FACS) 33.3% $34,000Bulloch 34.3% $31,943Dougherty (FACS) 35.1% $31,200Clay 35.7% $27,080Atkinson 36.3% $28,579Calhoun 36.8% $28,618Stewart (FACS) 38.1% $26,659Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Estimates Branch Release date: 11.2011


7 Lowest and Highest Poverty Rates: 2010

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How Bad Is It for Families with Kids?


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Family Budget Shares


Source: USDA Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion, http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/Publications/CRC/crc2011.pdf

http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/Publications/CRC/crc2011.pdf

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Food Insecurity


Source: USDA Economic Research Service, http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err141.aspx

GA17.4%

GA6.4%

http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/884525/err141.pdf

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19.2% GA

31.8% GA

53.2% GA

59.6% GA


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Nevada

S. Carolina

Arizona, Florida

NC MI, ALUS 2.6

US 10.2

Georgia: 12.3, 3.4

Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-07.pdf

http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-07.pdf

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http://blogs.census.gov/2011/09/13/households-doubling-up/

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Just when you thought things were OK

Let’s say the median wealth family has avoided poverty, avoided two-adult simultaneous unemployment, survived a recession (or two), enough (safe) food to eat, retained medical care access, not become unwilling landlords, not had to double-up, and managed not to hit one another while arguing.It’s all good, right?


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Absence of hardship doesn’t equal wellness

A few estimates from the Federal Reserve’s most recent Survey of Consumer Finances:


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Source: Federal Reserve 2010 SCF Chartbook, http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/scf/files/2010_SCF_Chartbook.pdf

http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/scf/files/2010_SCF_Chartbook.pdf

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Source: Federal Reserve 2010 SCF Chartbook, http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/scf/files/2010_SCF_Chartbook.pdf


28Source: Federal Reserve 2012 SCF Bulletin, http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf

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The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (our newest regulatory agency) is focusing its educational efforts on – mortgages, – credit cards, and – student loans.

First a look…then the question, “Why?”


http://www.consumerfinance.gov/


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Delinquincies


Source: New York Office of the Federal Reserve http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/

http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/


http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf

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Source: Federal Reserve 2012 SCF Bulletin, http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf


h

h

h

“Who is to blame?”


http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2012/08/pew-social-trends-lost-decade-of-the-middle-class.pdf

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So I find myself asking…

When can we shift from SURVIVE

to THRIVE?! Prepared by Robert B. Nielsen, Ph.D.


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My tentative answer…

When we stop pining for how how things

were and start working toward what could be.



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2. A DEMOGRAPHIC SNAPSHOT OF GEORGIA THIS CENTURY


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Georgia Population

Georgia is a populous and growing state Population estimates– 2000 8.1 million 10th in the U.S.– 2005 9.0 million 9th in the U.S.– 2010 9.5 million 9th in the U.S.– 2020 10.8 million (est.)

How about your county? – This tool offers a population change snapshot.


http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/


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Increasingly Diverse Nation

2000 2010NumberChange

Number Percent Number Percent Percent

Total 281,422 100.0 308,746 100.0 9.7

Non-Hispanic

White 194,553 69.1 196,818 63.7 1.2

Black 33,948 12.1 37,686 12.2 11.0

Asian 10,123 3.6 14,465 4.7 42.9

Islander 354 0.1 482 0.2 36.2

Am. Indian 2,069 0.7 2,247 0.7 8.6

Other 468 0.2 604 0.2 29.1

Two or more 4,602 1.6 5,966 1.9 29.6

Hispanic 35,306 12.5 50,478 16.3 43.0


Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2000 and 2010 decennial censuses); expect slight variations due to rounding

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Increasingly Diverse Society

Increasingly diverse society– Mapping two decades of change (Wash Post)– 2010 Decennial Census (Census Bureau)


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/

http://2010.census.gov/2010census/popmap/


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Increasingly Diverse State

2000 2010NumberChange

(in thousands) Number Percent Number Percent Percent

Total 8,072 100.0 9,480 100.0 17.4

Non-Hispanic

White 5,328 65.1 8,787 59.7 8.6

Black 2,350 28.7 2,950 30.5 25.6

Asian 173 2.1 315 3.2 81.6

Islander 4 0.1 7 0.1 60.1

Am. Indian 22 0.3 32 0.3 47.9

Other 196 2.4 389 4.0 98.1

Two or more 114 1.4 208 2.1 81.7

Hispanic 435 5.3 854 8.8 96.1



http://www.11alive.com/news/article/183232/165/Census-Hispanic-population-explosion-in-Georgia-especially-in-Gwinnett-County

http://www.11alive.com/news/article/183232/165/Census-Hispanic-population-explosion-in-Georgia-especially-in-Gwinnett-County

41Available at http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-04.pdf

http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-04.pdf

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From Center for American Progress(Yes, they lean left)

Top 10 things to know about Georgia’s demographics and immigration politics (I share a few)1. Georgia is at a demographic tipping point

– 1 of 13 states where people of color make up more than 40% of population.

2. People of color make up a substantial portion of Georgia’s population– African Americans make up 31.5% of population– Hispanics or Latinos 8.8%

3. Georgia has a large racial generation gap– 73.2% age 60+ are non-Hispanic white– 46.9% of children are non-Hispanic white

4. Demographic change is reshaping the electorate– Number of eligible Hispanic voters increased 181%--and they’re young

relative to whites


Available at: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2012/03/02/11191/the-top-10-things-you-should-know-about-georgias-demographic-changes-and-immigration-politics/


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From Center for American Progress(Yes, they lean left)

Top 10 things to know about Georgia’s demographics and immigration politics (I share a few)

5. The state is feeling the effects of H.B. 87, the “papers please” law.– Economic losses not yet determined, but estimates upward of $1B in

2011 growing season

6. Communities of color contribute to the state’s economy– Unauthorized immigrants paid $456.3 million in state and local taxes in

2010– Purchasing power of Georgia’s Latinos estimated $17 billion– 32,500 Latino-owned business account for $6B revenue, employ

approximately 36,000– Asian American-owned businesses increased 72% 2002-2007; GA

second-fastest growing state for Asian American-owned businesses


Available at: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2012/03/02/11191/the-top-10-things-you-should-know-about-georgias-demographic-changes-and-immigration-politics/


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67.5% 32.5%

5.3%

65.1%

2.71 2.51

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Changing Household Structure2000 2010 Change

(in thousands) Number Percent Number Percent Percent

Total household 3,006 100.0 3,586 100.0 19.3

Families 2,112 70.2 2,458 68.5 16.4

With own child <18 1,051 35.0 1,258 32.3 10.1Married couple 1,549 51.5 1,715 47.8 10.7 With own child <18 733 24.4 757 21.1 3.2Female head (no Husb) 435 14.5 568 15.8 30.5 With own child <18 258 8.6 320 8.9 24.2Average size 3.14 -- 3.17 -- 1.0

Nonfamily households 895 29.8 1,128 31.5 26.0Living alone 711 23.6 909 25.4 28.0 65 or older 210 7.0 268 7.5 27.5

Average size 2.65 -- 2.63 -- -0.8



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Available at http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-04.pdf


Changing Household Structure

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3. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES AHEAD

Largely as reported in Specialists’ Logic Models and Trend Statements


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3.1 SELECTED STATISTICS ON EACH ISSUE AREA

I can’t do each area justice and I’m not sure I should try at all…the experts are in the room…still, it was part of my charge so here are a few highlights as I see them (and on occasion I’m cross-eyed).


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3.1.1. ECONOMIC WELL-BEING FOR INDIVIDUAL FAMILIES

FACS Base Programs


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Georgians Will Manage Credit & Debt

Specialist: Michael Rupured People with higher credit scores are offered

more favorable loan rates; this saves money that can be put to other uses.

Georgia ranks 46th among the states for credit scores.– Augusta (710) and Savannah (713) have the distinc

tion of being in the list of cities with the top ten worst Vantage scores


http://www.experian.com/live-credit-smart/live-credit-smart.html




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Risk Management and Insurance

Specialist: Joan Koonce Deciding what kind and how much insurance an

individual or family needs can be a daunting task. With the implementation of the Affordable Care Act,

the health insurance marketplace is undergoing dramatic changes; all must soon participate in this complex and expensive marketplace.– www.healthcare.gov offers educational insights to

consumers, including timeline of the rollout of new health insurance provisions


http://www.healthcare.gov/

http://www.healthcare.gov/law/timeline/index.html


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3.1.2. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR INDIVIDUALS, FAMILIES, AND COMMUNITIES

FACS Base Programs


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In 2010

Women were 46.7% of the US labor force, a slightly larger share than at the start of the recession.

58.6% of women age 16+ were employed or looking for work.

Women were nearly twice as likely as men to work part time.

Women were nearly 50% more likely to work in the public sector than men; 18.2% of employed women worked in public sector jobs.

Source: Department of Labor (2011). Women’s Employment During the Recovery. Available at http://www.dol.gov/_sec/media/reports/FemaleLaborForce/FemaleLaborForce.pdf


http://www.dol.gov/_sec/media/reports/FemaleLaborForce/FemaleLaborForce.pdf

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Quality Caregiving for Children & Youth

Specialist: Diane Bales Child care has an enormous economic impact on Georgia.

– The child care industry generates about $2.4 billion in gross receipts each year

– employs more than 61,000 people directly– Parents with young children earn between $13.6 billion and $32.7

billion each year because child care is available Child care in Georgia offers long-term benefits by

– helping children develop knowledge and skills that will enable them to be ready for school, be better students, more likely to complete high school, less likely to be in costly special education programs, less likely to commit crimes, and more likely to be productive members of our future workforce.



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Intimate Partner Relationships

Specialist: Ted Futris In Georgia:– Marriage rate continues to decline (10.3 per 1000 total

population in 1990 vs. 6.6 in 2009)– Nearly half of all marriages in a year are remarriages. – In 2009, 32% of high school students were in a physical

fight one or more times during the past 12 months; 16% were hit, slapped, or physically hurt on purpose by their boyfriend or girlfriend.

– The 2010 teen birth rate was 41.2 per 1,000 15-19 year old adolescent girls (13th highest).



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Specialist: Don Bower Said he’ll be covering his



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Specialist: Sharon Gibson Is part of the panel Still, my take…preparing youth to envision what

could be if we embrace the future rather than pine for the past. Teens as planners!



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3.1.3. FOOD SAFETYFACS Base Programs


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Safety of Locally Grown Produce

Specialist: Judy Harrison Georgia ranks 9th in the number of cases of

foodborne disease illnesses– An estimated $1.2 billion cost in GA

Local food producers report poor adherence to hygiene protocols, and 90% of consumers don’t ask about growing/production practices

Readings Judy’s statement scared me! By the way, my kids love all that is BAC!



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Preserve and Store Foods Safety

Specialists: Elizabeth Andress & Judy Harrison 2010 Pew Charitable Trust estimates that a

single case of botulism costs $726K in related medical services, deaths, lost work, disability.

The majority of botulism cases in the U.S. are from home production

1/3 of home canners ‘adapt and improvise’ in ways that may be dangerous



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Commercial Food Safety

Specialists: Elizabeth Andress & Judy Harrison ServSafe since 1995! Georgia has

– over 16,000 inspected foodservice establishments – an industry that employs over 374,000 people (10% of the employment in

Georgia), generating $15.2 billion in sales (National Restaurant Assn. projections for 2012) The benefit? Beyond physical wellness…

– Vibrio vulnificus $3,045,726– Botulism $726,362– E. coli O157:H7 $14,838– Salmonella $9,146– Campylobacter $8,901– Listeriosis $1,695,143



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3.1.4. FOOD NUTRITION AND HEALTHFACS Base Programs


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Decreased Morbidity

Specialist: Connie Crawley 2011 Georgia adults:– 28% obese; 62.7% overweight or obese; 24th in US

2011 Georgia children:– 38% of high schoolers obese or overweight

If average BMI reduced by just 5% by 2030– 7.7% savings in health care cost savings



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3.1.5. HEALTHY, SAFE, AFFORDABLE HOUSING ENVIRONMENTS

FACS Base Programs


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Safe and Affordable Housing

Specialist: Pamela Turner GA housing market is showing signs of recovery; however,

the demand for housing is not yet strong enough to consume the existing inventory.

In the current market, individuals and families are faced with rising costs for electricity, water, gasoline, food and other necessities while income has remained stagnant or decreased.

Tighter mortgage lending and weak consumer confidence has kept potential home buyers from taking advantage of historically low interest rates.



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3.1.5. GICH: COMMUNITY HOUSING INITIATIVE

Housing and Demographic Research Center (Dr. Tinsley)


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Local Housing Assistance

Karen Tinsley Georgia Initiative for Community Housing (GICH)

provides support and technical assistance to local housing efforts– Improve neighborhoods; revitalize community

Partnership among HDRC, OVPPSO, Georgia Dept. of Community Affairs, and the Georgia Municipal Association. Also, Georgia EMC, Carl Vinson Institute, and Archway are implementation partners.– http://www.fcs.uga.edu/hace/hdrc/docs/GICHannReport201

2lowRes%20for%20web.pdf


http://www.fcs.uga.edu/hace/hdrc/docs/GICHannReport2012lowRes%20for%20web.pdf




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4. CONVERSATION LEADING INTO THE PANEL DISCUSSION.

If none, I have a slide graveyard we can walk through


Family System

Deacon & Firebaugh (1988).

Family Resource Management: Principles and Applications.

Natural/StructuredMACROENVIRONMENT

Humanmade

Biological

Physical

Societal SystemsMACROENVIRONMENT

Economic

TechnologicalSociocultural

Political

MICROENVIRONMENT

Physical Social

The micro- and macro- environment

Prepared by Sharon Y. Nickols, Ph.D.

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GRAVEYARD

Slides not used for the presentation but that might be useful for the panel question session afterward


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Long-Term Unemployment


Source: Department of Labor via Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303812904577299982932070176.html


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303812904577299982932070176.html

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Weekly Food Expenditures


Source: USDA Economic Research Service, http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err141.aspx


http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/884525/err141.pdf

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Current P60 Report



http://www.census.gov/prod/2012pubs/p60-243.pdf

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On technology…

“Technology changes society by changing our environment to which we, in turn, adapt. This change is usually in the material environment, and the adjustment we make to the changes often modifies customs and social institutions. Everywhere there is evidence of the stimulus of war in developing an unprecedented number of inventions which are being added to and changing our material environment. We shall be interested in seeing how these wartime developments in applied science will change society in peacetime.”


Ogburn, William F. (1947). How technology changes society. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 249, 81-88.


86Prepared by Robert B. Nielsen, Ph.D.

Nielsen 2012 extension_prog_dev

Education

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